My emphasis has been MATHEMATICS IN GAMBLING by Ion Saliu
Sonia
Go to his Webside and read for yourself or read bellow the text.
Is an excelent math text about card counting
Here is the link:
http://www.saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
=============================================
Posted by Ion Saliu on August 19, 2000 at 11:29:05:
In Reply to: BEING THERE posted by Mr. T on August 15, 2000 at
09:21:42:
• My emphasis has been MATHEMATICS IN GAMBLING. If there is a gambling
system, I analyze it mathematically, first and foremost. It includes
COUNTING CARDS, the most talked about gambling system. Many gamblers
fall in love with one or more systems. Sometimes they go beyond that
and worship their system. Card counting has become a religion for at
least two decades.
Mathematically, the card counting system has a minor influence today,
if any. I showed in a previous post the only impact counting can have
in a single deck game, Player against Dealer. A +2 count, generously
translated into a 2% Player's advantage results in a 0.01% better
chance to get a blackjack (a "natural"). Such a chance increases, at
best, from 4.77% to 4.78%.
The main mathematical aspect is the SEQUENCE of the remaining cards.
Card counting does not even attempt to "predict" the card sequence. In
reality it is impossible to "detect" the sequence of the remaining
cards. The number of sequences is staggering. They are calculated by
the FACTORIAL operator (N!). Let's exemplify briefly in an ideal
situation. Before Edward E. Thorp's "Beat the Dealer" book (an
important work, indeed) the Dealer dealt all the cards in a single
deck. Therefore, the penetration was 100%. A card counter would wait
up until the last quarter of the deck or so. Let's say the counter
estimated that around 13 cards were remaining in the 52-card deck. The
legend has it that many struck it big at the blackjack tables simply
by betting huge amounts towards the end of the deck. Mathematics,
however, does not confirm such claim. To calculate the number of
possible sequences of 13 cards, we use 13! = 1x2x3x…x12x13. The result
is: 6,227,020,800 (over 6 trillion sequences). Let's be fair. There
would be only 10 unique cards among 13, since 10=J=Q=K. In this case,
10! = 3,628,800 (over 6 million possible sequences)! Imagine an even
better situation for Player, that the count is +3 and that there are
no "neutral" cards remaining (e.g. 7 , 8). We can use software to
generate 13-card sequences. The composition would be 8 high cards (H)
and 5 low cards (L). I used my software for the task (SHUF-5.EXE or
SHUF-6.EXE). The program generated thousands of sequences, from card 1
to card 13. I considered 1-5 as L and 6-13 as H. Here are the three
final sequences of the run:
L, H, L, H, H, H, L, H, L, H, H, L, L
H, L, H, H, H, L, L, H, H, H, H, L, L
H, H, L, L, L, H, H, H, L, H, L, H, H
Let's play the first sequence now, between one Player and the Dealer.
Player gets L, Dealer gets H. Player gets H, Dealer gets H. Player
stands, Dealer stands. Dealer wins one hand. Player gets H, Dealer
gets H. Player gets L and stands, Dealer gets H and wins the 2nd hand.
Player gets L, Dealer gets H, Player gets H, Dealer gets L and draws
L; more probably, Dealer wins the hand.
In the 2nd sequence, Player gets H, Dealer gets L, Player gets H and
stands, Dealer draws L, and must draw to LH, gets an H and busts.
Player wins the 1st hand. Player gets L, Dealer gets L, Player gets H
and stands, Dealer gets H and draws another H (bust). Player wins the
2nd hand.
It is very, very complicated. We are dealing with over three and a
half million sequences. The matters are a lot more complicated when we
consider the neutral cards and multiple players. The impact of card
counting appears to be near negligible. I count cards sometimes up to
the latest card. I call it the "real running count". At the end of a
round the count is positive, for example. When it is my turn to make a
decision after my first two cards, the count turns out to be very
negative. A card counter would have bet bigger at the beginning of the
round. When it was his/her turn to make a decision, the count would be
clearly negative. The player might expect a low card. Quite often,
Player gets the opposite, a busting high card. I noticed frequently
such sequences. They seem to be totally random. If you are a faithful
card counter, you should expect to lose serious money for a
significant number of rounds (hands). Sometimes, but rarely, card
counting might help in hitting or double-down decisions. Once, I
shocked the audience when I doubled-down on 12 against dealer's 6. The
dealer announced his pitboss my play. Curiously, I won! The count was
very negative. I did it more for showmanship…
•• The personal side of my previous posts on Thorp and Uston relied on
books I have read. I have never claimed I experienced first hand
Thorp's or Uston's casino playing. First of all, I praise the two
computer programmers who took on a very difficult challenge. Trying to
discover rules in random events such as gambling represents an
enormous task. Yes, the casinos did change the rules after Thorp
published his book. The simple fact that the casinos added
"penetration" to the deck diminished the effect of counting to
fractions of a percentage point. One problem I have with the two
authors is the fact that they reached a point of worshipping card
counting. I am sure they did a large number of computer simulations. I
am sure they noticed the negligible effect of the system. Yet they
continued to influence a large number of players that card counting
was the road to the riches. I would like to present a few more
excerpts on Thorp and Uston. Carl Sifakis writes in his 1990
"Encyclopedia of Gambling" (pg. 36-37). "Dr. Thorp is still in
computerized mathematical research, but he is now concerned with
looking for values in stocks… The late Ken Uston, author of numerous
books on counting, was at the end of his life involved in computer
work in the Middle East, helping Kuwait track billions of dollars in
investments. He was not playing blackjack in Atlantic City, although
he had won a court case that barred casinos in New Jersey from
refusing to let counters play. In fact, Uston, upon winning that case,
didn't hit the blackjack tables in Atlantic City but signed up to do
TV commercials for Resorts International, the very target of his suit…
One long time gambler, Murray Friedkin, says of Thorp in ‘Big Julie of
Vegas' by Edward Linn: ‘Thorp is the smartest man in the world; if you
don't believe me, ask him…Whatever Thorp may say, I can tell you that
if he has made any money on blackjack he made it by writing a book.'
The late gambling expert John Scarne derided the counters and
challenged Thorp to a $100,000 match at blackjack. He later extended
the challenge to other leading counting advocates. There were some
nos, then yeses, then considerably more backing and filling; the
blackjack contest never came off."
Edward O. Thorp is associated with another gambling "system": the "Big
Toe Method" of beating the "Wheel of Fortune" ("Big Six"). Says Carl
Sifakis in the same book I quoted above: "Is the Thorp Big Toe Method
still in use? The bottom line is that the money wheels of all kinds
are still in place in the casinos, something that would not be the
case if there was a way they were being beaten considerably." (pg.
31).
Why this aura of legend surrounding card counting at blackjack? Even
more mystique is added when considering that Las Vegas is still
barring card counters from playing blackjack. Says Carl Sifakis: "And
what of the casinos today? Blackjack is a much bigger game today than
it was before ‘Beat the Dealer' appeared. More people than ever
patronize the tables and casinos today make more money from the game
than ever before. That's a significant bottom line." Roger Gros,
senior editor of "Casino Player" magazine writes in his 1996 "Casino
Gambling the Ultimate Play-To-Win Guide": "After all, casinos make
most of the money they make at the table games via blackjack. It's
great advertising when someone reports a big win at the blackjack
tables. Players have been encouraged for many years to believe that
blackjack can be beaten, and the casinos don't want to do anything to
disrupt that message." (pg.30).
I think the legend of card counting plays as the most successful means
of advertising for the casinos. It certainly attracts a large number
of players who believe counting at blackjack is a road to riches.
There are also other ways that the card counting legend favors the
casinos. Read any book on card counting and virtually all of them
contain the same cliché. "If you are a card counter, make some
bonehead plays so that the pitboss won't ban you!" I think many card
counters take the advice seriously. They do make bonehead, stupid
plays from time to time just to hide their card-counting skills. What
a stupid strategy for the player! What a profitable play for the
casino! It is admitted that counting cards offers no more than a 2%
advantage for the player. That's a slim margin by all standards.
Making bonehead plays can easily wipe out the slim, potential 2%
advantage. The casinos owe big time to all authors of card-counting
books. Then, in places where it is legal to ban skilled players from
the blackjack action, the casinos commit downright robbery. From what
I have read, the casinos show a strong bias towards barring a player
when he/she is at a serious LOSS! I read once that a known card
counter was losing some $14,000. Exactly at that point, the pitboss
approached the counter and asked him to leave the blackjack game! Get
it? The $14,000 went immediately to the casino bottom line. Meanwhile,
the player was deprived of a reasonable chance to recuperate his loss.
After all, blackjack is almost an even-odds game for a player using
the basic strategy. It is fair to expect swings in the winning and
losing columns of the player. Of course, the banned player is allowed
to play blackjack again. The pitbosses pretend to have forgotten
him/her, until another significant loss for the player. The player is
thrown out again! If the known counter is winning, the rationale is
that a swing in the fortune will follow. Sooner or later, the player
will encounter a severe loss. That's when you ask a counter to get
out! What casino would be happy if a winner takes the money and run?
In conclusion, mathematics must offer the main perspective when
gambling is concerned.
Ion Saliu
==============================
DOUGLAS G.V. REIMAN
counting.
However, although the author correctly points out one of the
casinos major advantages against card counting, which is the
casino has a right to quit when it is ahead (baring the counter
when he is losing, or otherwise stopping him from spreading bets
is analogous to the casino "quitting when it is ahead") a few
interesting points are missing:
Card counters, as a whole, lose a lot more than they win.
Yet a *team* of well disciplined card counters can still win
today. Why? Because casinos cannot afford to shuffle every
table in the casino, or bar hundreds of patrons. A large team of
card counters can force a casino to either shut down its games,
or allow card counters to play unabridged.
Card counters are not breaking any laws, and if two or three
hundred of them enter a casino, everyday for a week, I wonder if
the casino will blow out all of its customers by dealing a
terrible game, or allow a few card counters to remain and play
unabridged? That was a key question that my team board of
directors asked about 12 years past.
A large team of well disciplined and efficient card counters with
almost an unlimited bankroll is the casinos' worst nightmare.
It would be interesting to see such a team play again, with the
press in tow to record all of the illegal tactics the casinos
will use to try and stop them.
Hell, this sounds like a great movie! But, for those that really
know me and my teams, they also know it is true.
The casinos have an advantage over those card counters that "duck
and run" or try to hide. They can cheat them, kick them out,
force them to quit when they are losing, and a myriad of other
tactics that renders card counting a worthless system.
However, when the casinos confront a large team of efficient card
counters, they panic. They know none of the card counters are
breaking any laws, yet there are so many of them the casino would
need to shut down its entire blackjack game to get rid of them.
In all cases save one, the casinos made a deal to allow a few
card counters to remain and play undisturbed if the majority of
the card counters "went away." The one exception was when a
certain casino decided to change all of its games to an
unbeatable game. About a month later, that casino went bankrupt.
Ahhh, the good ol days. Will I ever make them return? You never
know.
Doug Grant (Tm)
"Sonia" <Sonia...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:dd3d785b.0108...@posting.google.com...
> The text has been taken from Ion Saliu's website.
> Go to his Webside and read for yourself or read bellow the
text.
> Is an excelent math text about card counting
> Here is the link:
>
> http://www.saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
>
> =============================================
>
>
> Posted by Ion Saliu on August 19, 2000 at 11:29:05:
>
> In Reply to: BEING THERE posted by Mr. T on August 15, 2000 at
> 09:21:42:
>
>
> . My emphasis has been MATHEMATICS IN GAMBLING. If there is a
> possible sequences of 13 cards, we use 13! = 1x2x3x.x12x13. The
> very negative. I did it more for showmanship.
>
> .. The personal side of my previous posts on Thorp and Uston
> looking for values in stocks. The late Ken Uston, author of
numerous
> books on counting, was at the end of his life involved in
computer
> work in the Middle East, helping Kuwait track billions of
dollars in
> investments. He was not playing blackjack in Atlantic City,
although
> he had won a court case that barred casinos in New Jersey from
> refusing to let counters play. In fact, Uston, upon winning
that case,
> didn't hit the blackjack tables in Atlantic City but signed up
to do
> TV commercials for Resorts International, the very target of
his suit.
> One long time gambler, Murray Friedkin, says of Thorp in 'Big
Julie of
> Vegas' by Edward Linn: 'Thorp is the smartest man in the world;
if you
> don't believe me, ask him.Whatever Thorp may say, I can tell
orlando...@gmail.com
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rea...@saliu.com
As of Doug Grant's challenge -
I responded by challenging back that guy with a (tm) name: Doug Grant. I double-dared other gambling authorities as well. I extended the challenge in a dedicated Web page -- yet, nobody dared to take up the challenge:
http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/511.html
("D G DOUG GRANT (tm) Blackjack Casino Gambling Challenge").
rea...@saliu.com
I can STILL see that BJ gamblers believe Doug Grant is... Ion Saliu!!! A few curious emails and forum posts (2014) made me wonder! Again, this is only because both entities (I am a person, while D.G. has (tm) or Inc. next to his name!) EXPOSE CARD C(O)UNTING as BIG DECEPTION.
The curious fact is that Doug Grant ( (tm) or Inc.) was a card-c(o)unter, plus vendor of and instructor in card counting gambling systems for blackjack! I tried card counting for less than a year. I knew mathematics (combinatorics) was against card-counting -- but I tried it as any researcher should. Obviously, I never devised, let alone sell, blackjack card-counting systems.
This Doug Grant ( (tm) or Inc.) debacle is as old as 1995. It was before I had Internet or online access (I first subscribed to the Internet in 1997). I did more research and I found out why this reaction against Doug Grant ( (tm) or Inc.); and why this false belief that Ion Saliu is Doug Grant -- and vice versa. I just discovered the FAQ of rec.gambing.blackjack (12/25/1995):
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/rec.gambling.blackjack/R4xBiDC5MYc/2MOKhhXibmcJ
It is all about CASINO INTEREST!
Blackjack players are the FAVORITES of the casinos. Blackjack players invest serious money in gambling systems like card-counting. If them players spend so much money in the counting systems, they will be always willing to spend even more PLAYING blackjack!
But it is bad news for the casinos IF even card-counting authors and vendors expose the invalidity of the systems as a whole! The aforementioned FAQ is undoubtedly written by casino consultants (the "casino moles" as I have always called them all).
Read again my Web page dedicated to the Doug Grant ( (tm) or Inc.) debacle and challenge:
http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/511.html
Ion Saliu
Founder of Blackjack Mathematics
http://saliu.com/blackjack.html
ions...@gmail.com
> The text has been taken from Ion Saliu's website.
> Go to his Webside and read for yourself or read bellow the text.
Despite cult following, blackjack card-counting equates to DECEPTION, FRAUD. The fraud of the card-counting blackjack system is two-pronged. It is defended by two pretexts, two absurd justifications: LONG RUN and VARIANCE.
Mystically, the LONG RUN and VARIANCE are always NEGATIVE from the players' (counters') perspective. In fact, mathematically, the two parameters should be POSITIVELY skewed. That's so because card counting promises to assure a POSITIVE expectation.
http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
"Gambling Mathematics in Blackjack: Myth, Deception, Fraud of Counting Cards Systems"
Ion Saliu,
Founder of Blackjack Mathematics
ions...@gmail.com
http://saliu.tripod.com/blackjack-card-counting.html
(Gambling Mathematics Applied to Blackjack: Myth, Deception, Fraud of Counting Cards Systems)
http://saliu.tripod.com/blackjack-counting-cards.htm
(Blackjack Counting Cards, BJ Card Counting Systems)
http://saliu.tripod.com/blackjack-systems.htm
(Internet Searches on Blackjack Systems)
ions...@gmail.com
> > The text has been taken from Ion Saliu's website.
> > Go to his Webside and read for yourself or read bellow the text.
> > Is an excellent math text about card counting in blackjack.
>
> Despite cult following, blackjack card-counting equates to DECEPTION, FRAUD. The fraud of the card-counting blackjack system is two-pronged. It is defended by two pretexts, two absurd justifications: LONG RUN and VARIANCE.
>
> Mystically, the LONG RUN and VARIANCE are always NEGATIVE from the players' (counters') perspective. In fact, mathematically, the two parameters should be POSITIVELY skewed. That's so because card counting promises to assure a POSITIVE expectation.
>
"Total Count: Counting Every Blackjack Card in the Deck"
> Ion Saliu,
> Founder of Blackjack Mathematics
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/rec.gambling.blackjack/chujyzO58wQ
Ion Saliu
Ion Saliu
> On Monday, August 13, 2001 at 12:07:41 AM UTC-4, Sonia wrote:
> > The text has been taken from Ion Saliu's website.
>
> Mystically, the LONG RUN and VARIANCE are always NEGATIVE from the players' (counters') perspective. In fact, mathematically, the two parameters should be POSITIVELY skewed. That's so because card counting promises to assure a POSITIVE expectation.
>
> http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
> "Gambling Mathematics in Blackjack: Myth, Deception, Fraud of Counting Cards Systems"
>
> Ion Saliu,
> Founder of Blackjack Mathematics
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/rec.gambling.blackjack/g9Iaj0I1yNI
(Card Counter Catchers Speak!)
The author was himself a card-counter, even instructor of blackjack counting systems, even developer of card-counting systems:
“Also consider THIS DEPOSITION WAS TAKEN IN 1994. Since that date the casinos have gone high-tech. So if you thought that Max Rubin's description of how suspect card counters were identified then, you should hear how much easier it is for casinos today to label anyone a card counter in less than five minutes.
Card counting systems are a BIG CON. Max Rubin's (a.k.a. Mike Riordan) sworn testimony (and dozens of other similar depositions provided to the courts by other-card counter catchers during the Campione case) provides irrefutable proof that the authors and software hucksters have been lying all along. They are using the fraudulent claim that card counting systems can still win to sell their worthless and dangerous systems, books and software.
This post provides clear proof the con men hucksters and casino agents are lying to this newsgroup and their sucker clients.”
Ion Saliu
>
… updating links to HTTPS…
>
Here is the link:
https://saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
> Blackjack players are the FAVORITES of the casinos. Blackjack players invest serious money in gambling systems like card-counting. If them players spend so much money in the counting systems, they will be always willing to spend even more PLAYING blackjack!
>
> But it is bad news for the casinos IF even card-counting authors and vendors expose the invalidity of the systems as a whole! The aforementioned FAQ is undoubtedly written by casino consultants (the "casino moles" as I have always called them all).
>
> Read again my Web page dedicated to the Doug Grant ( (tm) or Inc.) debacle and challenge:
>
>
Ion Saliu
The Best Blackjack Player in History
https://saliu.com/blackjack.html
Ion Saliu
> The original Web page that triggered this newsgroup post was published in the year of grace 2000. This “author”, Sonia republished my article here without my permission. Well, I ain’t Norman Wattenberger (aka Shkiottorban, aka Norman Bates)… so I made no lawsuit threats whatsoever!
>
> The interesting fact is that the original Web pages gets more and more visits from organic search… competing with the glory days of 2000s… “O tempora! O mores!” (from Cicero… no copyright infringement, N0rm!)
> http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
> "Gambling Mathematics in Blackjack: Myth, Deception, Fraud of Counting Cards Systems"
• Is it possible to make money playing blackjack if you count cards?
Only the crooks and cuckoos who sell books, software, "training materials" on card counting make a living that way. Like the Norms and Dons who sell programs and strategy cards -- when even better products are available for free. Not to mention the cuckoos probably never played blackjack as pros... make it card counters!
Ion Saliu
I was a “traditional counter” and I still count cards. The super count I apply is primarily for the blackjack insurance. Certain situations (Tens out in the round clearly below the norm… real norm)… favor also doubling down.
• https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/rec.gambling.blackjack/yHJJBp0F9OU
• The Best RGB Posts All-Matters Blackjack, Strategies, Systems, Card Counting.
Ion Saliu
The interesting fact is that the original Web pages gets more and more visits from organic search… competing with the glory days of 2000s… “O tempora! O mores!” (from Cicero… no copyright infringement, N0rm!)
• Gambling Formula, Randomness, Norman WattenbergerAbuse of Laws, Narcissismof Bogus Complaints.
Ion Saliu
You can get lost easily in public forums like this Usenet group. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY POSTS!!!
To solve the problem, I created a thread referring to the most relevant articles, materials, debates, systems, fights, etc. I keep it updated and make sure it shows at the top of this Google group:
• https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/rec.gambling.blackjack/yHJJBp0F9OU
• The Best RGB Posts All-Matters Blackjack, Strategies, Systems, Card Counting, Inevitable Fights.
Ion Saliu (royalty-name: Parpaluck),
Founder of Blackjack Mathematics
• https://forums.saliu.com/card-counting-blackjack.html
• ABC: The Best Blackjack Card Counting System, Created by Ion Saliu ~
• • the only count system founded on mathematics and formulas.
Ion Saliu
At least, some (in)famous krookoos fess up.
Sez BJ Bishop Arnold Snyder, “Casino Player Magazine, November 1997”:
“When I self-published my first book, ‘The Blackjack Formula’, in 1980, and advertised it in Gambling Times magazine with the catchy, upbeat slogan: ‘Card Counters Beware’ … stating in the ad that most of the blackjack games available in the casinos of the world were unbeatable with any card counting system … It is easier to make a living writing about this game [blackjack] than it is playing it. I have tried both, and I much prefer the keyboard to the cold green felt.”
• https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/rec.gambling.blackjack/pcDm82yV56A
• “The Candor of Famous Blackjack Card Counters”
Ion Saliu
• https://saliu.com/ai-chatbots-ion-saliu.html
• A Practical Essay on Artificial Intelligence, AI Chatbots Regarding Ion Saliu.