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Re: Chances of Getting the Shit (was: Being offline is the new luxury)
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Pamela
May 19, 2020, 9:43:36 AM5/19/20
to
On 12:50 19 May 2020, Sqwertz said:
> On Mon, 18 May 2020 11:18:35 -0400, Gary wrote:
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting
>>>>> in long lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus.
>>>> Or to see if they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus
>>>> without knowing it and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time
>> you go to a store or anywhere around people, your test
>> result is moot.
>
> In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
> that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
> home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
> 8,000.
>
> So if I walk past 50 people a day and lick their faces, my chances
> of getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
Don't lick faces but touch an item an infected person touched a few days
before you. A door handle will do. The virus lives for 3 days on metal
and plastic.
Untested asymptomatic carriers will pass on the infection too.
May Darwin be with you.
> On Mon, 18 May 2020 11:18:35 -0400, Gary wrote:
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting
>>>>> in long lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus.
>>>> Or to see if they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus
>>>> without knowing it and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time
>> you go to a store or anywhere around people, your test
>> result is moot.
>
> In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
> that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
> home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
> 8,000.
>
> So if I walk past 50 people a day and lick their faces, my chances
> of getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
Don't lick faces but touch an item an infected person touched a few days
before you. A door handle will do. The virus lives for 3 days on metal
and plastic.
Untested asymptomatic carriers will pass on the infection too.
May Darwin be with you.
John Kuthe
May 19, 2020, 9:50:27 AM5/19/20
to
And viruses do not actually live. And that is why the like to infect things that do! It's the only way a virus can reproduce!
John Kuthe, Climate Anarchist and a Damned Good Nurse
Pamela
May 19, 2020, 9:57:05 AM5/19/20
to
On 12:50 19 May 2020, Sqwertz said:
> On Mon, 18 May 2020 11:18:35 -0400, Gary wrote:
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting
>>>>> in long lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus.
>>>> Or to see if they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus
>>>> without knowing it and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time
>> you go to a store or anywhere around people, your test
>> result is moot.
>
> In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
> that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
> home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
> 8,000.
Shoddy thinking. Rate of incidence doesn't change if you don't encounter
> On Mon, 18 May 2020 11:18:35 -0400, Gary wrote:
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting
>>>>> in long lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus.
>>>> Or to see if they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus
>>>> without knowing it and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time
>> you go to a store or anywhere around people, your test
>> result is moot.
>
> In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
> that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
> home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
> 8,000.
part of the population.
graham
May 19, 2020, 10:32:55 AM5/19/20
to
On 2020-05-19 5:50 a.m., Sqwertz wrote:
> On Mon, 18 May 2020 11:18:35 -0400, Gary wrote:
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting
>>>>> in long lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus.
>>>> Or to see if they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus
>>>> without knowing it and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time
>> you go to a store or anywhere around people, your test
>> result is moot.
>
> In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
> that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
> home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
> 8,000.
>
> On Mon, 18 May 2020 11:18:35 -0400, Gary wrote:
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting
>>>>> in long lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus.
>>>> Or to see if they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus
>>>> without knowing it and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time
>> you go to a store or anywhere around people, your test
>> result is moot.
>
> In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
> that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
> home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
> 8,000.
>
> So if I walk past 50 people a day and lick their faces, my chances
> of getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
>
Stupid!
> of getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
>
It's only because of the restrictions that the infection rate has been
kept low.
Sheldon Martin
May 19, 2020, 10:54:02 AM5/19/20
to
On Tue, 19 May 2020 14:43:00 +0100, Pamela <pamela...@gmail.com>
wrote:
I went into town yesterday morning, at about 9 AM, first picked up the
mail at our PO Box, no one there but me. Next went to the liquor
store for my case of Crystal Palace, only the owner's wife behind the
counter. Next Tops Market, I'd guess 4 other customers plus a
skeleton crew of employees, perhaps six, but it's a large enough store
that no one is close to each other. First I placed my empties into
the machine and got about $7 in deposits. Then picked up some bananas
(mostly greens or they'll ripen too fast), two seedless hothouse
cukes, a dozen eggs, two sealed packages of cheese, a half gallon of
milk, and a top round steak. I was in and out in under ten minutes.
The steak weighed nearly 3 lbs so I froze half and the other half is
dinner tonight... all seasoned in the pan and in the fridge til later.
There were only two checkouts open. The milk my wife has me buy her
is "a2" brand 2%. Costs more but she says it tastes better. Was a
very quick shopping and never got near anyone, and I wore my mask...
that was yesterday.
This morning we got our diesel delivery, 150 gallons at $1.99 per...
should last about 3 years. My wife just left to the golf course to
play 18, three ladies and one guy; The Lefties. Tomorrow we'll be
getting our topsoil and mushroom mix all blended, 6 yards total...
lots of shoveling and raking.
We keep busy and safe... the golf course is safe as it's nearly 300
acres in the middle of nowhere. My wife pays for membership $725. so
has unlimited play all season.
https://www.thunderhartgolf.com/
wrote:
mail at our PO Box, no one there but me. Next went to the liquor
store for my case of Crystal Palace, only the owner's wife behind the
counter. Next Tops Market, I'd guess 4 other customers plus a
skeleton crew of employees, perhaps six, but it's a large enough store
that no one is close to each other. First I placed my empties into
the machine and got about $7 in deposits. Then picked up some bananas
(mostly greens or they'll ripen too fast), two seedless hothouse
cukes, a dozen eggs, two sealed packages of cheese, a half gallon of
milk, and a top round steak. I was in and out in under ten minutes.
The steak weighed nearly 3 lbs so I froze half and the other half is
dinner tonight... all seasoned in the pan and in the fridge til later.
There were only two checkouts open. The milk my wife has me buy her
is "a2" brand 2%. Costs more but she says it tastes better. Was a
very quick shopping and never got near anyone, and I wore my mask...
that was yesterday.
This morning we got our diesel delivery, 150 gallons at $1.99 per...
should last about 3 years. My wife just left to the golf course to
play 18, three ladies and one guy; The Lefties. Tomorrow we'll be
getting our topsoil and mushroom mix all blended, 6 yards total...
lots of shoveling and raking.
We keep busy and safe... the golf course is safe as it's nearly 300
acres in the middle of nowhere. My wife pays for membership $725. so
has unlimited play all season.
https://www.thunderhartgolf.com/
U.S. Janet B.
May 19, 2020, 1:28:15 PM5/19/20
to
such measures are not meant to take away you 'god given freedoms.'
Janet US
Hank Rogers
May 19, 2020, 2:15:33 PM5/19/20
to
graham
May 19, 2020, 2:20:19 PM5/19/20
to
soon as it impedes another's.
U.S. Janet B.
May 19, 2020, 7:24:05 PM5/19/20
to
Boron Elgar
May 19, 2020, 8:43:51 PM5/19/20
to
On Tue, 19 May 2020 17:23:56 -0600, U.S. Janet B. <J...@nospam.com>
Libertarians...tsk. There is a reason Rand Paul's neighbor decked him.
B. Server
May 19, 2020, 9:02:42 PM5/19/20
to
On Tue, 19 May 2020 06:50:29 -0500, Sqwertz <sqwe...@gmail.invalid>
wrote:
[...]
Looks to me like about 400 more "winners" since you posted. So
somehow, folks just keep rolling snakeeyes, just like they do in
Vegas.
More to the point, if all the residents of your county were to adopt
your notion of recreation; each licking the first 50 people they saw
or met each day, how long do you think your chance of getting COVID-19
would remain 0.0065? (Generously granting that you did the calculation
properly) The house edge in Vegas is not huge, but it is hard to beat
in the long run. If that viral "R" is greater than 1, that's really
all it needs.
--bs
wrote:
[...]
>
>In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
>double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
>that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
>With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
>population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
>home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
>8,000.
>
>So if I walk past 50 people a day and lick their faces, my chances
>of getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
>I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
Well, you will want to hurry, since the number just keeps going up.
>In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
>double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump
>that up only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
>With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
>population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying
>home and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in
>8,000.
>
>So if I walk past 50 people a day and lick their faces, my chances
>of getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
>I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
Looks to me like about 400 more "winners" since you posted. So
somehow, folks just keep rolling snakeeyes, just like they do in
Vegas.
More to the point, if all the residents of your county were to adopt
your notion of recreation; each licking the first 50 people they saw
or met each day, how long do you think your chance of getting COVID-19
would remain 0.0065? (Generously granting that you did the calculation
properly) The house edge in Vegas is not huge, but it is hard to beat
in the long run. If that viral "R" is greater than 1, that's really
all it needs.
--bs
Pamela
Jun 27, 2020, 3:02:13 PM6/27/20
to
On 12:50 19 May 2020, Sqwertz said:
> On Mon, 18 May 2020 11:18:35 -0400, Gary wrote:
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting in long
>>>>> lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Or to see if
>>>> they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus without knowing it
>>>> and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time you go to a
>> store or anywhere around people, your test result is moot.
>
>
>> Taxed and Spent wrote:
>>>
>>> On 5/18/2020 7:35 AM, Cindy Hamilton wrote:
>>>> On Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31:18 AM UTC-4, Gary wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> WTH is with all this urgency for healthy people waiting in long
>>>>> lines for hours just to get tested? WTF?
>>>>
>>>> To see if they are asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Or to see if
>>>> they have antibodies, meaning they had the virus without knowing it
>>>> and are now perhaps (just perhaps) immune.
>>>>
>>>> Cindy Hamilton
>>>>
>>>
>>> Or to be exposed to the virus while waiting in line.
>>
>> Even if your test shows virus free, the very next time you go to a
>> store or anywhere around people, your test result is moot.
>
> In my county there are/were 2,171 confirmed cases. So let's almost
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump that up
> only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying home
> and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in 8,000.
>
> So if I walk past 50 people a day and lick their faces, my chances of
> getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
Squirt, do you have an update on Covid in Austin? Mayor Adler isn't
> double that to 4000. Minus 713 confirmed recoveries. I'll bump that up
> only 50% to 1000 for a net guestimate of 3000.
>
> With a 1.274 million population in my county, that means .23% of the
> population is infected - or 1 in 4,000. 2,000 of them are staying home
> and ordering everything from delivery services, making it 1 in 8,000.
>
> So if I walk past 50 people a day and lick their faces, my chances of
> getting Covid-19 virus are only .0065%.
>
> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
recommending you lick any faces here: http://www.mayoradler.com/
songbird
Jun 27, 2020, 8:09:13 PM6/27/20
to
Sqwertz wrote:
...
past strangers?
for me it is more about risk factors and who i live with.
i'm not that old but have some mild issues which might
complicate things if i pick up the virus. an older
parent who's under the weather already surely doesn't need
anything else like this virus.
unfortunately there are a lot of bone-heads in the world
who don't think beyond their own personal needs and can't
possibly imagine trying to get along with others who have
different needs.
it doesn't take much at all for me to wear a mask and
some gloves. washing hands can be done.
no idea if i've been exposed to the virus or not and
no idea if i've averted any infections by my actions, but
i don't want someone's death on my conscience by not
doing anything at all either.
i'm glad to see they are learning to treat the compli-
cations better and keep more people alive, but still there
aren't that many reliable therapies or preventions that
seem to be working completely yet so a vaccine is still a
thing i will be waiting for.
songbird
...
> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
face licking is something you do when walking
past strangers?
for me it is more about risk factors and who i live with.
i'm not that old but have some mild issues which might
complicate things if i pick up the virus. an older
parent who's under the weather already surely doesn't need
anything else like this virus.
unfortunately there are a lot of bone-heads in the world
who don't think beyond their own personal needs and can't
possibly imagine trying to get along with others who have
different needs.
it doesn't take much at all for me to wear a mask and
some gloves. washing hands can be done.
no idea if i've been exposed to the virus or not and
no idea if i've averted any infections by my actions, but
i don't want someone's death on my conscience by not
doing anything at all either.
i'm glad to see they are learning to treat the compli-
cations better and keep more people alive, but still there
aren't that many reliable therapies or preventions that
seem to be working completely yet so a vaccine is still a
thing i will be waiting for.
songbird
U.S. Janet B.
Jun 28, 2020, 12:12:16 AM6/28/20
to
On Sat, 27 Jun 2020 18:10:45 -0400, songbird <song...@anthive.com>
wrote:
>Sqwertz wrote:
>...
>> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
>
snip
I guess you just haven't walked past the right people yet. I hear
your county is really blooming with cases. We'll stop screwing around
with this covid-19 sooner if everyone would just wear a mask, wash
hands frequently, social distance and stay home as much as possible.
Science isn't just another opinion.
Janet US
wrote:
>Sqwertz wrote:
>...
>> I'm gonna take those odds to Vegas.
>
I guess you just haven't walked past the right people yet. I hear
your county is really blooming with cases. We'll stop screwing around
with this covid-19 sooner if everyone would just wear a mask, wash
hands frequently, social distance and stay home as much as possible.
Science isn't just another opinion.
Janet US
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