Will gold shine in '09?
Ned
..possible short-term triggers that could set off a major
rise in the price of gold include:
* Reaction to Saturday's announcement by Venezuelan
president Hugo Chavez that his government would seize
several gold mining concessions from private operators.
* Continued sharp drops in the value of the U.S. dollar.
* Possible bankruptcies of Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase,
AIG, or Bank of America.
* Major military actions, with India/Pakistan or
Israel/Palestine being just two possibilities.
* Possible revelations by a government or the International
Monetary Fund that previously reported substantial gold
reserves that it no longer has all the gold it claimed.
* Possible revelations that one of the "paper gold"
alternatives such as certificate programs by the Perth Mint
or Canadian government or gold exchange traded funds do not
have all the physical gold on hand to cover their
commitments.
This list is not all-inclusive. I am also not trying to
cast aspersions on any particular government or company,
but am highly suspicious that one or more have unrevealed
financial bombs that will explode in 2009.
In my judgment, we are close to the time when demand for
physical gold (and silver) will soar to levels never before
seen. How close? It is entirely possible that it could
happen in January. I expect major moves by April at the
latest. By the end of 2009, I would not be surprised to see
gold top $2,000. If all chaos breaks out, that figure could
be conservative.
When the price of gold breaks above $1,000 to stay, I
expect supplies of physical gold to become almost non-
existent.
Today, you can still purchase many forms of physical gold,
for immediate delivery, or delivery in 2-4 weeks.
The U.S. Mint has announced that it will not be
manufacturing any 2009 half, quarter or tenth-ounce gold
American Eagles or any gold Buffaloes in the near future,
but many other coins and ingots can be purchased. If you
procrastinate, I think it is likely that the price will be
higher and you may find physical gold almost impossible to
acquire. If you are contemplating acquiring gold, I think
you will be better off acting sooner rather than later.
Mr. Jaggers
James
Bruce Remick
"Ned" <nob...@pseudo.borked.net> wrote in message
news:c22c92dde7f6342c...@pseudo.borked.net...
Could be. Or maybe not. Thanks.
Arizona Coin Collector
Hello
It will be very interesting to see how 2009 will be.
Historically every global recession (or depression), has
lead to both political and military upheaval's in the
word. We have the tensions with Pakistan and India.
We now have the renewed fighting with Israel and the
Palestinian militants. Tensions in Greece and parts of
Europe.
As for Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase, AIG, and Bank
of America, they will have to reveal were the money
they received from "TARP" went to, before any additional
money will be release to them. The new 111 congress
will demand and get that from them, before the second
half of the "TARP MONEY" is release. I do not see any
bankruptcies with them. They have nothing to gain, and
everything to loose if they withhold information from the
111 Congress.
As for the U.S. Auto industry, they have until the end of
March of 2009 to get their house in order. General Motors
last quarterly profit was posted in December of 2004. I
do expect General Motors to file for bankruptcy. Both
management and UAW together have destroyed
General Motors. They will get no more handouts from the
111 congress. Any bailout will not reach the President to
signed into law.
With the exception of the spike of gold prices above
$1000.00 in March, gold prices for most of 2008 have
held steady in the $800.00 range. No one really knows
what the gold prices will do in 2009. I do not expect to
see gold go (and stay), above $1000.00 and oz in 2009.
..
mazorj
>
> ..possible short-term triggers that could set off a major
> rise in the price of gold include:
>
> * Reaction to Saturday's announcement by Venezuelan
> president Hugo Chavez that his government would seize
> several gold mining concessions from private operators.
So he'll shut down the mines? No, they'll still be producing, just
for different masters.
> * Continued sharp drops in the value of the U.S. dollar.
The value of the dollar has been fluctuating and recently it has
become a safe haven (in T-bills) for parking money. The long-term
prospects remain to be seen but commodities don't operate on long-term
time horizons.
> * Possible bankruptcies of Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase,
> AIG, or Bank of America.
All the actual bankruptcies over the past year hardly affected gold
prices.
> * Major military actions, with India/Pakistan or
> Israel/Palestine being just two possibilities.
Military actions can cause short-term spiking of some commodities but
they don't have any permanent impact.
> * Possible revelations by a government or the International
> Monetary Fund that previously reported substantial gold
> reserves that it no longer has all the gold it claimed.
How about possible revelations that we now have mined out all the
accessible gold on earth? How speculative do you want to get here?
> * Possible revelations that one of the "paper gold"
> alternatives such as certificate programs by the Perth Mint
> or Canadian government or gold exchange traded funds do not
> have all the physical gold on hand to cover their commitments.
That might cause a small and possibly even long-term bump but it's not
going to generate massive panic buying.
> This list is not all-inclusive.
So your well of imaginative scare tactics ran dry before exhausting
all the possibilities?
> I am also not trying to
> cast aspersions on any particular government or company,
> but am highly suspicious that one or more have unrevealed
> financial bombs that will explode in 2009.
Suspicious? Hell, you can bet the farm that something of that nature
will happen in 2009. So what?
> In my judgment, we are close to the time when demand for
> physical gold (and silver) will soar to levels never before
> seen. How close? It is entirely possible that it could
> happen in January. I expect major moves by April at the
> latest. By the end of 2009, I would not be surprised to see
> gold top $2,000. If all chaos breaks out, that figure could
> be conservative.
If "all chaos breaks out" we'll all have a lot more to worry about
than whether we should have added another 10 or 20 ounces to our gold
holdings.
> When the price of gold breaks above $1,000 to stay, I
> expect supplies of physical gold to become almost non-existent.
That's pretty much the case now for the availability of most forms of
small-investor gold, and its price has remained dormant in the
$800-$900 range. Furthermore, some holders of gold in large
quantities are being forced to sell in order to satisfy other
financial needs in the current economic meltdown. At the least, don't
look for permanent price increases until all that selling has worked
its way through the system. That could take years. And by then, the
recovering economy will have taken some of the shine off of PMs.
> Today, you can still purchase many forms of physical gold,
> for immediate delivery, or delivery in 2-4 weeks.
>
> The U.S. Mint has announced that it will not be
> manufacturing any 2009 half, quarter or tenth-ounce gold
> American Eagles or any gold Buffaloes in the near future,
The problem has not been overall gold supplies but difficulties in
obtaining suitable planchets in sufficient quantities.
> but many other coins and ingots can be purchased. If you
> procrastinate, I think it is likely that the price will be
> higher and you may find physical gold almost impossible to
> acquire. If you are contemplating acquiring gold, I think
> you will be better off acting sooner rather than later.
I think you are long on gold, perhaps some it bought above $1,000 and
are trying to stampede the market with your improbable probabilities
and scare tactics.
Some of the events you list may happen. They will cause modest,
short-term bumps in price. But IMO the long-term price increases of
gold have been driven mostly by the long-term growth of overall global
economic activity, not momentary blips like the events you cite. The
price of gold is not going to hit $2,000 in 2009. In the unlikely
event that it gets above $1,200 I would sell every scrap I own except
for collectibles because anything much above $1,000 probably is
unsustainable over 2009-2010.
Of course, if you're actively trading in gold then most of this does
not apply. Traders make money by arbitraging smaller changes in price
over time or by exploiting small price differences between
geographical areas. Or they just buy wholesale at market and sell
retail at a small mark-up. They earn their profits the old-fashioned
way, not by banking on speculative windfalls.
Jud
FWIW, checking current gold prices, $873.10 after closing at $880.60
yesterday.
som...@some.domain
when in doubt
run in circles
scream and shout!
spud
"Bruce Remick" <rem...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:Gmq6l.24137$701....@newsfe12.iad...
from the us mint website
2009 Scheduled Products Listing
The following list displays the United States Mint's 2009
products and their dates of availability. This list will be updated
periodically as dates for products being released later in the year have yet
to be set. All dates are subject to change by the United States Mint without
prior notice.
Availability Date Product Description
1/5/2009 United States Mint 2009 District of Columbia & U.S.
Territories Quarters Proof SetT
1/15/2009 Native American $1 Coin Rolls
1/22/2009 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold coin
>
>
