Steel frames and le Tour
Brandy...@gmail.com
in the TdF?
Kurgan Gringioni
> Anyone know the last year a steel frame was used by a racing cyclist
> in the TdF?
Yes.
Rodney Dunning
> Anyone know the last year a steel frame was used by a racing cyclist
> in the TdF?
1989? Maybe early 90s.
--
Rodney Dunning
Brandy...@gmail.com
What a relief! At least we're all not "Dumbasses" (myself excluded,
of course).
So, what was the year, what we're the teams and what frames?
ila...@gmail.com
Since everyone knows that Armstrong won 1993 Worlds on a concealed Ti
bike, I would assume that the official Motorola bike that year was
steel.
-ilan
bfd
> in the TdF?
Not sure about the TdF, but here's the last steel frame to win any
kind of championship:
http://www.bikespecialties.com/site/peloton4.html
Btw, that's Dede Barry's 2002 world cup steel frame with carbon fork.
Here's her description of it:
"I wanted a steel bike, for durability and strength, with the vintage
Mariposa lugs. He ordered the lightest steel available, pieced it
together with the lugs, placed a lightweight, stiff carbon fork on it
and painted the whole bike, including the stem and fork, light and
royal blue. We chose Campagnolo components and he had it all built up
for me in two weeks, just in time to get dialed in on it before the
race."
Brandy...@gmail.com
Thanks. That's a gorgeous bike. Love that color-coordinated stem.
It's Chris
What a gogeous machine! Elegance that no TIG welder or pencil lead
weaver can ever hope to match!
- -
Compliments of:
"Your Friendly Neighborhood Wheelman"
If you want to E-mail me use:
ChrisZCorner "at" webtv "dot" net
My website:
http://geocities.com/czcorner
Donald Munro
> Btw, that's Dede Barry's 2002 world cup steel frame with carbon fork.
> Here's her description of it:
>
> "I wanted a steel bike, for durability and strength
Ah, a Bianchi then.
brian_...@yahoo.com
> Anyone know the last year a steel frame was used by a racing cyclist
> in the TdF?
I know up until the mid-90's, Mapei was rockin the Steel Masterlight
in Paris Roubaix.
Scott
> Anyone know the last year a steel frame was used by a racing cyclist
> in the TdF?
I wouldn't be surprised if someone was riding one in this year's
Tour.
Until I rode an S-Works Roubaix this year, I wasn't convinced that any
carbon fiber bike would/could ride as nicely as a steel Lemond Sarthe
I picked up on ebay, and I would gladly ride a hand-built custom steel
frameset (from the right builder with the right tubeset) over any
carbon fiber bike I'd ridden previously. Keep in mind, I'm not a
weight-weenie, so a pound or so more frame weight means nothing to
me. Comfort and durability, on the other hand... much more important.
Bret Wade
You mean the yellow Tsunami with the yellow decals wasn't your favorite
bike?
Bret
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>I wouldn't be surprised if someone was riding one in this year's
>Tour.
If you are talking about the Tour de France bike race, you might not
be surprised, but you're still wrong.
Scott
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:11:38 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> >I wouldn't be surprised if someone was riding one in this year's
> >Tour.
>
> If you are talking about the Tour de France bike race, you might not
> be surprised, but you're still wrong.
JT, how the hell do you know whether I'm wrong or not? Do you really
know what every single rider is riding on every single stage? Really,
c'mon...
Scott
I never had one of those framesets... but I hear from those who did
that they were quite nice!
Davey Crockett
2008 Tour Bikes
ag2r bh-g4 carbon nanotube
agritubel kuota-kom carbon nanotube
barloworld bianchi-928 carbon monobloc
bouygues time-vxrs carbon tubular
caisse pinarello-prince carbon monobloc
cofidis time-vxrs carbon tubular
crédit-ag look-595 carbon tubular
euskaltel orbea-orca carbon monobloc
f-des-jeux lapierre-x-lite carbon tube to tube
geritol specialized-tarmac carbon monobloc
high-road giant-tcr carbon monobloc
lampre willier-cento carbon monobloc
leekygas crash-n-fail carbon tubular
quick-step specialized-tarmac carbon monobloc
robberbank colnago-extreme carbon tubular
saunier-duval scott-adict carbon monobloc
silence-lotto ridley-helium carbon monobloc
slipstream felt-f1 carbon monobloc
Team-csc cervélo-soloist carbon monobloc
team-milram colnago-extreme carbon tubular
--
Davey Crockett
The Buck doesn't stop Here
It keeps on Falling at 9.8m/s²
Donald Munro
> 2008 Tour Bikes
>
> ag2r bh-g4 carbon nanotube
> agritubel kuota-kom carbon nanotube
> barloworld bianchi-928 carbon monobloc bouygues time-vxrs carbon tubular
> caisse pinarello-prince carbon monobloc cofidis time-vxrs carbon tubular
> crédit-ag look-595 carbon tubular
> euskaltel orbea-orca carbon monobloc
> f-des-jeux lapierre-x-lite carbon tube to tube geritol specialized-tarmac
> carbon monobloc high-road giant-tcr carbon monobloc
> lampre willier-cento carbon monobloc leekygas crash-n-fail carbon
> tubular quick-step specialized-tarmac carbon monobloc robberbank
> colnago-extreme carbon tubular saunier-duval scott-adict carbon
> monobloc silence-lotto ridley-helium carbon monobloc slipstream felt-f1
> carbon monobloc
> Team-csc cervélo-soloist carbon monobloc team-milram colnago-extreme
> carbon tubular
One could even ask when was the last time an aluminium frame was used.
John Forrest Tomlinson
I've been around racing enough and seen enough pictures and bikes to
know.
Scott
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:55:03 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
Really? No one is doubting that you've seen lots of bikes. I feel
pretty strongly, though, that you have NOT seen every bike ridden by
each rider in this year's TdF.
While I don't think it's necessarily happening this year, given the
long and storied history of riders having their favored frames re-
badged to look like the team's bike, it's certainly not outside the
realm of possiblity that someone is riding a steel frame.
On a slightly related note, I can tell you that there are plenty of
riders using carbon fiber bikes that were NOT made by their sponsor.
e.g. Gerolsteiner's TT bikes aren't not Specialized bikes, but the
decals sure read "Specialized".
Yeah, it's possible someone's on a steel bike. I doubt it, but I
wouldn't be surprised.
Bret Wade
Sorry, I thought you did. I liked mine a lot but it wasn't much to look at.
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>Really? No one is doubting that you've seen lots of bikes. I feel
>pretty strongly, though, that you have NOT seen every bike ridden by
>each rider in this year's TdF.
>
>While I don't think it's necessarily happening this year, given the
>long and storied history of riders having their favored frames re-
>badged to look like the team's bike, it's certainly not outside the
>realm of possiblity that someone is riding a steel frame.
If you are claiming that we can only "know" something by seeing it
with our own eyes or with extremely specific witnesses, then sure, I
don't know it I don't know my car is where I parked it last night, I
don't know that the door to my apartment wasn't spraypainted by some
random vistior and I don't know if the NY Times announced bankruptcy
in the last 30 minutes.
There are still no steel frames in the Tour of France.
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>Yeah, it's possible someone's on a steel bike. I doubt it, but I
>wouldn't be surprised.
Regardless of surprise, you're still wrong.
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>On a slightly related note, I can tell you that there are plenty of
>riders using carbon fiber bikes that were NOT made by their sponsor.
>e.g. Gerolsteiner's TT bikes aren't not Specialized bikes, but the
>decals sure read "Specialized".
>
>Yeah, it's possible someone's on a steel bike. I doubt it, but I
>wouldn't be surprised.
Also, just to cement my arrogance, if you *should* be surprised if
that was true. Extremely surprised. There is zero reason any rider in
the Tour of France should be a on a steel frame and many reasons (both
economic, performance and logistical they should not).
You should be shocked.
Scott
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:39:03 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
Really, you don't think that even a single rider in the field may
actually prefer a steel frame to a carbon fiber frame? And that rider
(should one exist) may be able to get that steel frame for free from
the builder?
It's been done before many, many times by lots of riders. No reason
to definitively conclude that it is not going on now.
Ted van de Weteringe
> Really, you don't think that even a single rider in the field may
> actually prefer a steel frame to a carbon fiber frame?
I don't.
Bret Wade
> There is zero reason any rider in
> the Tour of France should be a on a steel frame and many reasons (both
> economic, performance and logistical they should not).
Agreed. They're all way too young to be retro-grouches.
Bret
Scott
Cool. We know your opinion now. Thanks.
I don't share your opinion. I've ridden numerous carbon fiber
framesets, and with the exception of ONE, I've preferred a good steel
frameset to each of them. For most of them, I've ridden them only
because I'd already had a bunch of money sunk into them and they
weren't so bad as to be unbearable.
All in all, given the choice of the typical off-the-shelf carbon fiber
frame vs a custom steel frame, both provided for free (which is how it
would work with a TdF rider), I'd go with the custom steel. I can not
bring myself to definitively declare without asking each and every one
of them that there are no TdF riders who wouldn't prefer steel.
John Forrest Tomlinson
What's been done?
>No reason
>to definitively conclude that it is not going on now.
Let's talk epistomology. I can't prove a negative here and I won't
ask you to prove a positive, since you merely said you "wouldnt' be
suprised." I'll assume wouldnt' be surprised means there's a 1 in 10
or many a 1 in 100 or even a 1 in 1000 chance of it happenning.
I'm saying the chance is far, far less than ever the most generous
odds above. Far less than 1 in 1000. Orders of magnitude less.
Now, if something that has a 1 in, say, 10,000 or 1 in a million
chance of happening happens, among 200 riders, you wouldn't be
surprised?
Wow.
And here's a surrogate. Find a single example of a pro tour or
continental level pro team using a steel frame in any UCI-level race
in Europe. Try it. Can you find even one?
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> I can not
>bring myself to definitively declare without asking each and every one
>of them that there are no TdF riders who wouldn't prefer steel.
Do you use that standard of certainty in other aspects of life?
If you lack that standard of certainty, does whatever happens "not
surprise you."
Wow, you're not easily surprised.
b...@mambo.ucolick.org
Remember when Mercury/Viatel hired all those
Europros and made a big push (just before imploding)?
Their bike sponsor was Lemond and they had
steel bikes, I think this was before Lemond Bikes
got into the aluminum and Dr. Moreau-half-and-half
frames. Anyway, as Mercury began to implode,
I remember an interview in which one of the Eurodogs
was bitching about the backwardness of having to
ride steel frames, as if it was a short step from that
to having to sling your own tubulars over your
shoulder.
Ben
I like steel fine, but I'm not a Europro
jason...@bellsouth.net
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:13:12 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> > I can not
> >bring myself to definitively declare without asking each and every one
> >of them that there are no TdF riders who wouldn't prefer steel.
>
> Do you use that standard of certainty in other aspects of life?
>
> If you lack that standard of certainty, does whatever happens "not
> surprise you."
>
> Wow, you're not easily surprised.
Regardless of your incessant babbling, you know a lot less than you
think you do.
Paul G.
Heh heh! I remember the olden days when you could win the TDF
ridining a PX-10. I think the PX stood for "Piece of eXcrement".
-Paul
Woland99
> What about the squirrel factor? Certainly some TdF rider is concerned
> about squirrels!
>
> http://picasaweb.google.com/dbiked/BrotherSBikeCrash?authkey=iOs1rM3MJzo
That is why they had all those team cars and bikes - all
honking horns like crazee - to scare away killer squirrels.
John Forrest Tomlinson
You're mistaken. I know I know very little. But the things I say I
know I'm almost always right about.
RicodJour
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 10:42:13 -0700 (PDT), "jasoncol...@bellsouth.net"
>
>
> >Regardless of your incessant babbling, you know a lot less than you
> >think you do.
>
> You're mistaken. I know I know very little. But the things I say I
> know I'm almost always right about.
As far as you know. ;)
R
Brandy...@gmail.com
wrote:
> And here's a surrogate. Find a single example of a pro tour or
> continental level pro team using a steel frame in any UCI-level race
> in Europe. Try it. Can you find even one?
I know that I can't find one. It would be interesting to hear from
anyone who has. Yesterday bfd replied with Dede Barry's 2002 world
cup frame as an example of a steel frame that was used successfully in
pro-level competetion. That's nearly 6 years ago though.
I would be quite surpised if a steel frame were used by anyone in a
Grand Tour. I like and appreciate the ride qualities of a good steel
frame but at that level of competetion I would guess that any benefits
they provide in terms of "comfort" would be more than negated by those
provided by a lighter, stiffer carbon frame. I might be less
surprised to find out that someone used a modern steel frame in a race
like Paris-Roubaix.
Scott
wrote:
>
> - Show quoted text -
JT,
Last things first, we're not talking about entire teams using steel
frames. We're talking about single riders choosing to use a steel
frame.
Now, back to your initial paragraph. You don't understand
probability. The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50. They either are, or are
not, using a steel frame. The odds would be different if we defined
our terms differently, say, what are the odds a rider would choose
frame A (steel) vs frame B (Ti from builder x) vs frame C (Ti from
builder y) vs frame D (carbon fiber from xyz) vs frame E (carbon fiber
from abc) and so on.
Given my particular love of steel frames, I'm prejudiced, I admit...
but given the ease with which a rider who prefers steel (and there are
plenty) could substitute a steel frame for his team issued carbon
fiber bike at no cost, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one rider
did.
Do I think it has happened this year? No. Could it happen? Yes.
It's pretty damn simple and you don't have to accept it, you can keep
arguing (incorrectly) about probability or whatever if you want.
Maybe we can get TK to chime in and the two of you can argue till they
reaches Paris.
Scott
I, too, would be even less surprised to see a steel frame in P-R.
Think about this... You talk about the difficulty in finding an
example of someone using a steel frame. Well, of course. The whole
point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top
pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? You'd
never even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to have a
steel bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It just
means that it would be hard to point to an example of it if it were
happening.
carl...@comcast.net
Dear RJ,
Here's a current example of John proving how little he knows:
On Wed, 09 Jul 2008 11:25:54 -0600, carlfo...@comcast.net wrote:
"Carl, did you ever add that seven pound weight to your bike? No? Then
shut up."
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.tech/msg/9683b5702c4c3236
Yes, ignorance is not only bliss, but also tends to believe that it's
almost always right.
John might profit from this article:
http://www.geocities.com/sgraessle/folder1/incomp.htm
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
Brandy...@gmail.com
> John Forrest Tomlinson a écrit profondement:
>
Thanks for the info. Not an alloy frame to be found. I assume those
are are the "official" bikes of the team. It is still theoretically
possible that individual riders have different bikes than these, no?
(I will not argue that any of them are steel, however).
Fascinating how times have changed. In the days of steel riders had
"custom" frames made for them, sometimes by builders of their own
choosing. Now, we supposedly have all of these "stock" carbon frames
(e.g., Cervelo, Trek) with which riders are perfectly content.
SLAVE of THE STATE
wrote:
> I don't know my car is where I parked it last night, ...
If you had a clown car you would.
People hate clown cars -- they won't even steal them.
Bob Schwartz
> Well, of course. The whole
> point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
> someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
> the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top
> pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? You'd
> never even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to have a
> steel bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It just
> means that it would be hard to point to an example of it if it were
> happening.
Those guys ride what they are paid to ride. *Especially* those guys.
Bob Schwartz
A R:nen
> While I don't think it's necessarily happening this year, given the
> long and storied history of riders having their favored frames re-
> badged to look like the team's bike, it's certainly not outside the
> realm of possiblity that someone is riding a steel frame.
That was much easier back when they all looked like bicycles, and
all you needed to pull that off was the correct paint job and decals.
To accomplish the same look as most of today's team bikes, it would
take either a very strange (and probably extraordinarily heavy) custom
steel frame or a traditional steel frame with lots of paper-mache (or
whatever) or possibly a combination of both to do the same. A bit
difficult to see any advantages that would make it worthwhile.
Scott
True, but irrelevant. We're not (at least I'm not) talking about
Boonen or Bettini or DiLuca or some top guy who's every move is
scrutinized. I'm talking about the simple concept that some guy, any
guy, COULD ride a non-issue frame (even a steel one) in the middle of
the peleton and no one would notice or give half a damn if they did
notice.
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
>1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
Is this a joke?
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>The whole
>point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
>someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
>the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top
>pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding?
I've seen disguised bikes at races I've been at in person. These were
pro bikes made by another maker of another material.
It's hard, but in some cases it's possible to spot disguised bikes in
photos. Especially if we're talking about frame materials with
significantly different tube sizes. For high-tech steel the main
tubes are way thinner than carbon and aluminum - easy to see in
quality photos. The Tour of France is one of the most followed and
photographed races in the world.
There is zero evidence of a steel frame in that race other than
someone saying "Well, it's possible."
John Forrest Tomlinson
Dear Carl. Did I say you didn't or did I ask?
Please shut up now.
John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
>Thanks for the info. Not an alloy frame to be found. I assume those
>are are the "official" bikes of the team. It is still theoretically
>possible that individual riders have different bikes than these, no?
>(I will not argue that any of them are steel, however).
I wouldnt' be surprised to see a rider or two in their on an aluminum
frame, especially if the sponsor makes both aluminum and carbon fiber
frames.
John Forrest Tomlinson
The lower down the totem pole the rider is the less chance he has of
the team letting him ride non-standard stuff.
>or give half a damn if they did
>notice.
You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get their
name into the most televised and photographed bike race in the world
wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding something
different?
Wow.
Booker Bense
Scott <hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>Think about this... You talk about the difficulty in finding an
>example of someone using a steel frame. Well, of course. The whole
>point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
>someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
>the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top
>pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? You'd
>never even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to have a
>steel bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It just
>means that it would be hard to point to an example of it if it were
>happening.
Dude, it's not 1990... You are completely batshit if you think
there's a steel bike in the pro peleton. It would be instantly
obvious ( thin straight tubes.... ), bikes can't be "disguised"
that much anymore.
I suspect many of the riders in the TDF have NEVER ridden a
lugged steel bike in their entire lives. Certainly, never raced
on one.
_ Booker C. Bense
M-gineering
> Now, back to your initial paragraph. You don't understand
> probability. The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
> 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50. They either are, or are
not, using a steel frame.
Thanks for brightening my day ;)
--
/Marten
info(apestaartje)m-gineering(punt)nl
Scott
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:33:37 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
Don't make me play the 'dumbass' card on you!
No one ever said there was any evidence of a steel frame being ridden
in the Tour. You have insisted on trying to argue against a point
that no one has tried to make.
Scott
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> >The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
> >1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
>
> Is this a joke?
No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
So, when you mis-attribute the likelyhood of a given rider riding a
steel frame as far less likely than that (like your 1 in 1000 odds)
and then try to apply that to the 180 riders at the start of the Tour
and come up with something absurd like 1 in 1,000,000 or less, you
aren't really applying the proper probability. It makes your argument
look stronger to someone who doesn't understand odds, but it's not
valid.
None of this matters, however. Like I said before, and will say
again, ALL I said is that I wouldn't be surprised if someone were
riding on a steel frame. How or why I came to that conclusion is up
to me and you can't refute it. You may try to tell me that I
shouldn't come to that conclusion, of course, but I don't have to be
swayed by your arguments.
I'm not saying someone is riding a steel frame, I have no proof that
someone is riding a steel frame, I don't really care if someone is or
not, and I understand how unlikely it is... but also understand it is
certainly not impossible. You should understand that my reasonings
for stating that it wouldn't surprise me aren't really up for you to
decide the validity of.
Donald Munro
>> Well, of course. The whole
>> point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
>> someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
>> the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top pro,
>> where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? You'd never
>> even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to have a steel
>> bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It just means that
>> it would be hard to point to an example of it if it were happening.
Bob Schwartz wrote:
> Those guys ride what they are paid to ride. *Especially* those guys.
The men in black wouldn't be seen dead riding steel.
RicodJour
>
> Now, back to your initial paragraph. You don't understand
> probability. The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
> 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50. They either are, or are
> not, using a steel frame. The odds would be different if we defined
> our terms differently, say, what are the odds a rider would choose
> frame A (steel) vs frame B (Ti from builder x) vs frame C (Ti from
> builder y) vs frame D (carbon fiber from xyz) vs frame E (carbon fiber
> from abc) and so on.
You keep using that word, odds. I do not think it means what you think
it means.
What you meant to say, and probably would have said, if you weren't at
_odds_ with people that disagreed with you, is that there are two
possibilities - either a steel frame or another frame. Both the odds
and probability of a rider in the Tour day France riding a steel frame
are extremely remote - roughly akin to you admitting that, "okay, I'm
wrong." Deal with it.
R
Donald Munro
>>Dear RJ,
John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
> Dear Carl.
All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.
John Forrest Tomlinson
I'll clarify -- zero evidence that it is even remotely possible other
than someone saying, in effect, "it's possilbe".
Donald Munro
> Fascinating how times have changed. In the days of steel riders had
> "custom" frames made for them, sometimes by builders of their own
> choosing. Now, we supposedly have all of these "stock" carbon frames
> (e.g., Cervelo, Trek) with which riders are perfectly content.
I seem to recall Specialized make a custom carbon bike for Boonen.
John Forrest Tomlinson
<hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
>wrote:
>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>>
>> <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> >The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
>> >1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
>>
>> Is this a joke?
>
>No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
>steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
>sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
>whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
>frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
Well, despite it not being a joke, the odds of me laughing
are.....100%
LOL
Bret Wade
> On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
> wrote:
>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>>
>> <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>> The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
>>> 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
>> Is this a joke?
>
> No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
> steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
> sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
> whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
> frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
Then do you also think that there are 50/50 odds that they are riding a
lead bike?
Bret
Tosspot
Carbon or china teacups?
Donald Munro
>>>> Dear RJ,
>> John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
>>> Dear Carl.
Donald Munro wrote:
>> All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.
Tosspot wrote:
> Carbon or china teacups?
There's a 50/50 chance they're steel.
A Muzi
John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
> You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get their
> name into the most televised and photographed bike race in the world
> wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding something
> different?
> Wow.
Long history of that, actually. Especially in climbs and TT.
--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971
** Posted from http://www.teranews.com **
Paul G.
> On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
> wrote:
>
> > On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> > <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > >The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
> > >1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
>
> > Is this a joke?
>
> No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
> steel frame.
Holy shit! I'm buying lottery tickets now that I know my odds of
winning are binary! I'm either going to win, or not. 50/50!
-Paul
carl...@comcast.net
Dear John,
Were you ignorant or not?
Incidentally, have you caught up yet?
Or do you want to tell me to shut up again if I haven't put 7 more
pounds on my bike for your education?
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
b...@mambo.ucolick.org
> wrote:
> > On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> > <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > >The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
> > >1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
>
> > Is this a joke?
>
> No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
> steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
> sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
> whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
> frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
>
> So, when you mis-attribute the likelyhood of a given rider riding a
> steel frame as far less likely than that (like your 1 in 1000 odds)
> and then try to apply that to the 180 riders at the start of the Tour
> and come up with something absurd like 1 in 1,000,000 or less, you
> aren't really applying the proper probability. It makes your argument
> look stronger to someone who doesn't understand odds, but it's not
> valid.
>
Consider the question of whether RBR Chief Statistician
Robert Chung just threw up in his mouth a little. There
are only two possible outcomes, but the odds I would
place on the two outcomes are not 50/50.
Ben
Odds aren't even. That's why they call them odds.
John Forrest Tomlinson
wrote:
>-snip frames-
>John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
>> You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get their
>> name into the most televised and photographed bike race in the world
>> wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding something
>> different?
>> Wow.
>
>Long history of that, actually. Especially in climbs and TT.
Among lower-level riders? Riding technology that is not cutting-edge
but rather older than what the team wants them to ride?
I dont' think so.
This steel thing is not like some top pro painting a carbon Vitus to
look like a steel Raleigh in the late 1980s (which I've seen
first-hand) or Lance Armstrong riding a re-baded Litespeed TT bike
instead of a Trek (photos).
John Forrest Tomlinson
>Were you ignorant or not?
Sure, I was ignorant. I was ignoring your later posting because they
were tiresome and unclear.
>
>Incidentally, have you caught up yet?
Will I ever?
>Or do you want to tell me to shut up again if I haven't put 7 more
>pounds on my bike for your education?
If you haven't, you should certainly shut up. I think you should shut
up in regardless.
A Muzi
>>> Dear RJ,
> John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
>> Dear Carl.
Donald Munro wrote:
> All these dears. This place is beginning to sound like a gay tea party.
Tea? I didn't see any 'tea' reference
carl...@comcast.net
Dear John,
If you wanted me to shut up, why did you repeatedly write posts asking
me to add 7 pounds to my bike and then fall silent when I did so and
posted the results?
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
John Forrest Tomlinson
Dear Carl er cheers Dear
In this thread I didn't ask you to. I asked if you did.
Dear er cheers is that er clear Cheers?
John Forrest Tomlinson
Excuse me, I didn't mean "in this thread." I meant "today."
James Thomson
> Anyone know the last year a steel frame was used by a racing
> cyclist in the TdF?
GAN/Crédit Agricole were pictured with lugged steel Merckx frames as late as
1998:
http://au-veloclubdeparis.fr/index.php?m=12&rub=8&page=all&gallerie=Saison%201998
Backstedt's even has a custom seat lug. Whether or not they actually raced
on these frames, I have no idea.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/coceadaigh/352831144/sizes/l/
http://www.jamd.com/image/g/1637116
But the single-pivot (Mavic?) brakes do suggest retro leanings.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/1998/aug/backstedt.jpg
and the upward curve of the rear brake cable looks like the result of an MX
Leader's internal cable routing:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/coceadaigh/352831136/sizes/o/
http://www.wooljersey.com/gallery/v/Walter/8/
James Thomson
Bob Schwartz
The odds either way are 50/50.
Bob Schwartz
Paul G.
> On Jul 10, 8:49 am, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
> wrote:
>
> > I don't know my car is where I parked it last night, ...
>
> If you had a clown car you would.
>
> People hate clown cars -- they won't even steal them.
Wait til gas hits $5/gal. I'm already seeing a lot of scooters. Your
clown car is a limo compared with them. I've got you beat, btw. I've
got a 500cc Honda that typically gets over 50 mpg- 57 on my last
tank.
-Paul
bfd
> Fascinating how times have changed. In the days of steel riders had
> "custom" frames made for them, sometimes by builders of their own
> choosing. Now, we supposedly have all of these "stock" carbon frames
>
No, its possible that a rider may be using a "custom" carbon frames,
i.e., custom geometry/sizing, as such frames have been used in the
Tour, as far back as 1990, when Greg Lemond rode a custom Calfee (then
Carbonframes). Its my understanding that Colnagos can be ordered with
custom geometry/sizing too. Thou, I'm not sure about Time, Ridley or
any of the Chinese-made cookie cutter carbon frames.
Ben C
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:37:51 -0700 (PDT), Brandy...@gmail.com
> wrote:
>
>>Thanks for the info. Not an alloy frame to be found. I assume those
>>are are the "official" bikes of the team. It is still theoretically
>>possible that individual riders have different bikes than these, no?
>>(I will not argue that any of them are steel, however).
>
> I wouldnt' be surprised to see a rider or two in their on an aluminum
> frame, especially if the sponsor makes both aluminum and carbon fiber
> frames.
I thought I remembered Liggett saying Contador had a "special titanium
climbing bike" for the 2007 Paris-Nice (which he won).
I found some pictures:
http://www.albertocontadornotebook.info/parisnicegallery2007.html
The bike in most of those pictures is kind of silver coloured, but looks
more like carbon fibre from the shape of the tubes (especially in the
stage 7 picture).
Anyway part of his skull is made of titanium.
A Muzi
>> John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
>>> You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get their
>>> name into the most televised and photographed bike race in the world
>>> wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding something
>>> different?
>>> Wow.
> A Muzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>> Long history of that, actually. Especially in climbs and TT.
John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
> Among lower-level riders? Riding technology that is not cutting-edge
> but rather older than what the team wants them to ride?
> I dont' think so.
> This steel thing is not like some top pro painting a carbon Vitus to
> look like a steel Raleigh in the late 1980s (which I've seen
> first-hand) or Lance Armstrong riding a re-baded Litespeed TT bike
> instead of a Trek (photos).
Absolutely, we mostly agree. In this era there's much less of that.
I could see a different maker's carbon thing rebadged for a TT though,
given the limited top tube lengths etc available in modern 'frame
systems'. I have no reason to believe there are any steel frames on the
Tour or in any Pro venue. But there were many cases of prima donna
riders who firmly believed another designer/builder's piece was 'better'
than the team issue piece over the years.
Jay Beattie
> On Jul 10, 1:04 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
> wrote:
>
> > And here's a surrogate. Find a single example of a pro tour or
> > continental level pro team using a steel frame in any UCI-level race
> > in Europe. Try it. Can you find even one?
>
> I know that I can't find one. It would be interesting to hear from
> anyone who has. Yesterday bfd replied with Dede Barry's 2002 world
> cup frame as an example of a steel frame that was used successfully in
> pro-level competetion. That's nearly 6 years ago though.
>
> I would be quite surpised if a steel frame were used by anyone in a
> Grand Tour. I like and appreciate the ride qualities of a good steel
> frame but at that level of competetion I would guess that any benefits
> they provide in terms of "comfort" would be more than negated by those
> provided by a lighter, stiffer carbon frame. I might be less
> surprised to find out that someone used a modern steel frame in a race
> like Paris-Roubaix.
Steel was used in Paris-Roubaix in 2006. See http://tinyurl.com/z4w5y
Note the cyclocross-like bike further down the page with conventional
32 spoke wheels, tied and soldered. Jobst would give them an ear
full! -- Jay Beattie.
RicodJour
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:35:19 GMT, John Forrest Tomlinson
>
>
> >Please shut up now.
>
> Dear John,
>
> Were you ignorant or not?
>
> Incidentally, have you caught up yet?
>
> Or do you want to tell me to shut up again if I haven't put 7 more
> pounds on my bike for your education?
Quit trying to hijack the thread. We're beating up on Scott at the
moment. ;)
R
dave a
Buying a ticket doesn't really change the odds much. The difference
between zero and 10e-49 isn't much.
/dave a
Tom Kunich
news:1fc21839-8945-4041...@e39g2000hsf.googlegroups.com...
>
> Really, you don't think that even a single rider in the field may
> actually prefer a steel frame to a carbon fiber frame? And that rider
> (should one exist) may be able to get that steel frame for free from
> the builder?
Just for the argument - it is now possible to use a steel frame that weighs
about the same as a carbon frame. All you have to do is check out Waterford
frames. Some custom builders can obtain that Reynolds tubing and make it
even lighter.
And I can say this - my Time VX weighs within a half pound of my Basso Loto
made from steel so weight isn't a determining factor. Generally bicycle
manufacturers want their teams to ride their most expensive models as
advertisement. By the way - the Loto handles as smoothly and cleanly as the
Time VX and both of those bikes are my favorites. The C40, in comparison, is
a bit stiff so you use it when you're expecting a hard, fast ride where
steering accuracy is more important than ride smoothness.
carl...@comcast.net
wrote:
>-snip frames-
>John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
>> You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get their
>> name into the most televised and photographed bike race in the world
>> wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding something
>> different?
>> Wow.
>
>Long history of that, actually. Especially in climbs and TT.
Dear Andrew,
Here's a re-badging gallery from the 2007 TDF:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2007/tour07/tech/?id=/tech/2007/features/tour_tech_607
I love that stuff and hope that Huang does it again this year.
To be fair to John, it would be surprising if any Tour rider was
riding a steel frame. His notion that aluminum would be less
surprising is puzzling, since the huge tubes would tend to make the
aluminum frame noticeable at a distance.
The paucity of technical details is probably the most noticeable thing
about the coverage of the Tour. A few years ago, we had a thread about
how many pros were riding tubulars in the TDF. Despite many strong
opinions, it turned out that no one actually knows.
Heck, try to find out what tire pressures they're running or if
they're running chain-watchers.
I browsed a bit on the chain-watcher question recently and found these
examples, the first two being a metal-rod arrangements that were new
to me.
I wonder how many of the TDF riders use chain watchers? Are these few
examples so unusual that they caught the photographer's eye, or do
dozens of bikes sport the little accessories?
Metal rod 2008 TDF:
http://tour-de-france.velonews.com/photo/39313
Metal rod 2008 Roubaix:
Plastic 2008 Roubaix:
Another plastic 2008 Roubaix:
Plastic in a 2008 race:
Plastic in a 2007 race:
Zinn on chain watchers back in 2005:
"Some teams, Fassa Bortolo being a good example, have inner stops
(Deda Dog Fangs) on most of the team’s bikes."
http://tour-de-france.velonews.com/article/8254
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
carl...@comcast.net
<usenet...@jt10000.com> wrote:
Dear John,
So it's a day-to-day thing?
We're supposed to shut up about what you said in this thread
yesterday?
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
We can't even talk about what you said
Scott
> In article <9796b2c5-bc25-4d5e-9be7-afdec02d8...@m45g2000hsb.googlegroups.com>,
>
> Scott <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> >Think about this... You talk about the difficulty in finding an
> >example of someone using a steel frame. Well, of course. The whole
> >point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
> >someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much like
> >the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a top
> >pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding? You'd
> >never even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to have a
> >steel bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It just
> >means that it would be hard to point to an example of it if it were
> >happening.
>
> Dude, it's not 1990... You are completely batshit if you think
> there's a steel bike in the pro peleton. It would be instantly
> obvious ( thin straight tubes.... ), bikes can't be "disguised"
> that much anymore.
>
> I suspect many of the riders in the TDF have NEVER ridden a
> lugged steel bike in their entire lives. Certainly, never raced
> on one.
>
> _ Booker C. Bense
Try to follow my point. I'll type slower if that'll help. I didn't
say that anyone is riding a steel frame. I said it's possible, and I
wouldn't be surprised if someone was.
You and I agree on one thing, most of them have not ridden a lugged
steel bike. Hell, I've owned a number of steel bikes over the years,
currently own two, and I've never ridden a lugged steel bike. Current
state of the art steel frame building rarely involves lugs.
Davey Crockett
| Scott wrote:
| > On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
| > wrote:
| >> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
| >>
| >> <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
| >>> The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
| >>> 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
| >> Is this a joke?
| >
| > No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
| > steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
| > sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
| > whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
| > frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
|
| Then do you also think that there are 50/50 odds that they are riding
| a lead bike?
|
| Bret
Let me see now.
They make bikes (frames) out of
Steel
Carbon
Aluminium
Titanium
Other alloys/materials/etc (spun glass, etc)
So the absolute chance/odds is, for sake of argument only, and for any
one rider, 20 percent or one in five.
However; whilst "odds" and "probability" are often the same thing,
where it is known that most riders are on carbon frames as indicated
by the specs of the sponsors supplying the frames and inferred by the
power of the Team managers over the common gregario, with only the
"stars" possibly being able to opt for a frame constructed of some
other material; the probability of any one rider _not_ riding a carbon
frame is infinitesmal.
Davey thinks that possibly someone might be riding steel - or other
material - but he sure wouldn't bet the Ranch on it.
One would need to do some sampling to assign better probability
numbers with a satisfactory confidence level.
But Davey rides steel road and track bikes by preference and an
aluminium mountain bike because there didn't seem to be anything else
available at Decathlon. (A good value for money bike store in Europe).
Have fun guys.
--
Davey Crockett
-
Davey sez it's safer to hunt with Cheney than to Drive with Kennedy
Just ask Mary-Jo Kopechne- Oops, sorry, you can(t - She's Dead
http://www.ytedk.com/chapter3.htm
Davey Crockett
| Steel was used in Paris-Roubaix in 2006. See http://tinyurl.com/z4w5y
| Note the cyclocross-like bike further down the page with conventional
| 32 spoke wheels, tied and soldered. Jobst would give them an ear
| full! -- Jay Beattie.
Tied and soldered. That's a Blast from the Past.
But the wheels Davey used way back in thr Grass Tracks - late 40's early
50's _ were cane with shellac-ed on tubulars. Low flange hubs but three
cross and tied and soldered
--
Davey Crockett
-
Justice, Kennedy Style
http://www.ytedk.com/epilogue.htm
Tim McNamara
Bob Schwartz <bob.sc...@REMOVEsbcglobal.net> wrote:
> carl...@comcast.net wrote:
> > Dear John,
> >
> > Were you ignorant or not?
>
> The odds either way are 50/50.
Good summation.
Scott
> On Jul 10, 2:21 pm, Scott <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > Now, back to your initial paragraph. You don't understand
> > probability. The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
> > 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50. They either are, or are
> > not, using a steel frame. The odds would be different if we defined
> > our terms differently, say, what are the odds a rider would choose
> > frame A (steel) vs frame B (Ti from builder x) vs frame C (Ti from
> > builder y) vs frame D (carbon fiber from xyz) vs frame E (carbon fiber
> > from abc) and so on.
>
> You keep using that word, odds. I do not think it means what you think
> it means.
>
> What you meant to say, and probably would have said, if you weren't at
> _odds_ with people that disagreed with you, is that there are two
> possibilities - either a steel frame or another frame. Both the odds
> and probability of a rider in the Tour day France riding a steel frame
> are extremely remote - roughly akin to you admitting that, "okay, I'm
> wrong." Deal with it.
>
> R
Let's use poker as an example, since many of us have either played the
game or have seen it played on TV. If you watch poker on TV, the
commentators often refer to the odds of a given card being played.
The numerical odds are clearly defined, because there is a finite set
of possibilities which are easily shown. There is no human element to
the odds of a given card being played.
When you talk about the odds of how a given player will play a hand,
or how a typical player might play a hand, then you inject lot's more
possibilities, and certainly not all can be known. The odds of how a
given player will play a particular hand are much more difficult to
predict, especially if you know little about a player's style.
I'm suggesting that it is not appropriate to use the notion of the
odds of a pro cyclist choosing to use a steel bike, which is agreeably
slim, as proof that there are no steel bikes in the Tour. Hell, take
the lottery example that's been raised... the odds of winning the
lottery are so slim as to be practically nonexistent, yet people do it
all the time. How can that be?
Are the odds great that there's a steel bike in the Tour? No. Is it
possible? Yes. Would I be surprised if there was one? No.
Tim McNamara
bbe...@slac.stanford.edu (Booker Bense) wrote:
> In article
> <9796b2c5-bc25-4d5e...@m45g2000hsb.googlegroups.com>,
> Scott <hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >Think about this... You talk about the difficulty in finding an
> >example of someone using a steel frame. Well, of course. The whole
> >point of the discussion hinges on the fact that we're talking about
> >someone using a non-standard team frame DISGUISED to look as much
> >like the team issue bike as possible. Unless you're talking about a
> >top pro, where would you ever see info on what bike they're riding?
> >You'd never even hear about some guy on a team who just happened to
> >have a steel bike. That does not mean it is or isn't happening. It
> >just means that it would be hard to point to an example of it if it
> >were happening.
>
> Dude, it's not 1990... You are completely batshit if you think
> there's a steel bike in the pro peleton. It would be instantly
> obvious ( thin straight tubes.... ), bikes can't be "disguised" that
> much anymore.
>
> I suspect many of the riders in the TDF have NEVER ridden a lugged
> steel bike in their entire lives. Certainly, never raced on one.
That's quite possibly true, perhaps even likely. Well, maybe some of
the old guys like Zabel have even raced on lugged steel, but most of the
born-in-1980-or-later contingent haven't.
William Asher
> Quit trying to hijack the thread. We're beating up on Scott at the
> moment. ;)
This is turning into a nice thread. I love July around here.
--
Bill Asher
Tim McNamara
<b0ea1f0a-52a3-49d3...@x35g2000hsb.googlegroups.com>,
Scott <hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Hell, I've owned a number of steel bikes over the years, currently
> own two, and I've never ridden a lugged steel bike. Current state of
> the art steel frame building rarely involves lugs.
Well, lugs are not common practice, but state-of-the-art steel frame
building frequently involve lugs. Indeed, I would think that at this
juncture in time the state of the art steel bicycle *is* a lugged bike:
Scott
> Scott wrote:
> > On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
> > wrote:
> >> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> >> <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >>> 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
>
> > No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
> > steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
> > sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
> > whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
> > frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
>
> Then do you also think that there are 50/50 odds that they are riding a
> lead bike?
>
> Bret
If the question is, is the rider using a lead bike vs all other
options, then no. While not infinite, there are lot's of non-lead
alternatives.
If the question is, is the rider using a lead bike or not, then yes,
it's a yes/no scenario.
ila...@gmail.com
wrote:
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:59:53 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
>
>
> <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >On Jul 10, 9:54 am, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
> >wrote:
> >> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:39:03 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> >> <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> >> >On a slightly related note, I can tell you that there are plenty of
> >> >riders using carbon fiber bikes that were NOT made by their sponsor.
> >> >e.g. Gerolsteiner's TT bikes aren't not Specialized bikes, but the
> >> >decals sure read "Specialized".
>
> >> >Yeah, it's possible someone's on a steel bike. I doubt it, but I
> >> >wouldn't be surprised.
>
> >> Also, just to cement my arrogance, if you *should* be surprised if
> >> that was true. Extremely surprised. There is zero reason any rider in
> >> the Tour of France should be a on a steel frame and many reasons (both
> >> economic, performance and logistical they should not).
>
> >> You should be shocked.
>
> >Really, you don't think that even a single rider in the field may
> >actually prefer a steel frame to a carbon fiber frame? And that rider
> >(should one exist) may be able to get that steel frame for free from
> >the builder?
>
>
> What's been done?
>
> >No reason
> >to definitively conclude that it is not going on now.
>
> Let's talk epistomology. I can't prove a negative here and I won't
> ask you to prove a positive, since you merely said you "wouldnt' be
> suprised." I'll assume wouldnt' be surprised means there's a 1 in 10
> or many a 1 in 100 or even a 1 in 1000 chance of it happenning.
>
> I'm saying the chance is far, far less than ever the most generous
> odds above. Far less than 1 in 1000. Orders of magnitude less.
>
> Now, if something that has a 1 in, say, 10,000 or 1 in a million
> chance of happening happens, among 200 riders, you wouldn't be
> surprised?
>
> Wow.
>
> And here's a surrogate. Find a single example of a pro tour or
> continental level pro team using a steel frame in any UCI-level race
> in Europe. Try it. Can you find even one?
I know that Laurent Brochard is signing his name to high end steel
frames in a joint effort with his brother, bikes weigh about 8kg. Last
I heard, he wasn't riding the Tour de France. http://www.cycles-laurentbrochard.fr/acier.html
-ilan
carl...@comcast.net
Dear RJ,
Okay, let's trade for a moment.
If a frame is steel, the odds are that less than 1% of it is carbon.
Poor Scott shouldn't quit his day job and head for Las Vegas.
("Hey, there are only two possibilities, either I win or I lose, so it
looks like a 50-50 proposition!")
Now you explain the odds to John about whether I added 7 pounds to my
top tube as he kept begging me to do and then posted the details with
photos on RBT.
***
Scott can take a little comfort in how tricky probability is.
Anyone beating up on him should look into the Monty Hall problem.
In "The Drunkard's Walk," Mlodinow quotes a Harvard professor whose
glum opinion was that "our brains are not wired to do probability
problems very well." (p. 45)
Later, Mlodinow quotes Martin Gardner, who said in a Scientific
American piece on a problem like the Monty Hall problem that 'in no
other branch of mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in
probability theory." (p. 56)
In his chapter on the Monty Hall problem, Mlodinow gives us this juicy
detail:
"When told of this [Vos Savant's solution _is_ correct], Paul Erdos,
one of the leading mathematicians of the twentieth century, said
'That's impossible.' Then, when presented with a formal mathematical
proof of the correct answer, he still didn't believe it and grew
angry. Only after a colleauge arranged for a computer simulation in
which Erdos watched hundreds of trials that came out 2 to 1 in favor
of switching [if the game show host opens one of two doors that you
didn't guess and asks whether you want to switch your original guess]
did Erdos concede that he was wrong." (p. 49)
The Monty Hall problem:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Technically, I _know_ that Vos Savant was right and that there really
is a huge 2-to-1 advantage if I switch my guess when the game show
host opens one of the doors that I didn't choose and asks me if I want
to change my mind.
But like Erdos, I don't _believe_ it and it makes me angry.
(Not being a famous mathematician, I don't have to concede that this
is wrong.)
Cheers,
Carl Fogel
Tim McNamara
A Muzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
> -snip frames- John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
> > You think team sponsors who are going nuts spending money to get
> > their name into the most televised and photographed bike race in
> > the world wouldnt' care if some "lower-level" rider is riding
> > something different? Wow.
>
> Long history of that, actually. Especially in climbs and TT.
Indeed, this has been the case for decades and probably less now. There
were frame builders who made a good living building bikes for riders,
who then sent them to be painted in the team colors. Pegoretti is one
such example, allegedly having built frames for Lemond, Indurain,
Chiappucci, etc. which were then painted in team colors. Andy Hampsten
won at Alpe-d'Huez on a Landshark painted in Merckx Motolora colors, and
Lance won the 1993 world champs on a Lightspeed painted to look like a
Merckx. Lemond had his frames built by Roland Della Santa for years and
painted in the team colors. Sean Kelly stated that he almost always
ride Vitus 979 frames which were painted in the team colors; many pros
did the same in the 1980s.
ila...@gmail.com
wrote:
> On Jul 10, 12:59 pm, Scott <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On Jul 10, 1:29 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <usenetrem...@jt10000.com>
> > wrote:
> > > On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:21:47 -0700 (PDT), Scott
>
> > > <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > > >The odds for any given rider using a steel frame is not
> > > >1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or whatever. It's 50/50.
>
> > > Is this a joke?
>
> > No. It's really quite binary. Either a rider IS or IS NOT riding a
> > steel frame. Any attempt at bringing in the odds based on what a
> > sampling of riders may or may not ride may be relevant to you deciding
> > whether or not it's likely that a rider may be using a particular
> > frame, but... for any given rider, it is as simple as IS or IS NOT.
>
> > steel frame as far less likely than that (like your 1 in 1000 odds)
> > and then try to apply that to the 180 riders at the start of the Tour
> > and come up with something absurd like 1 in 1,000,000 or less, you
> > aren't really applying the proper probability. It makes your argument
> > look stronger to someone who doesn't understand odds, but it's not
> > valid.
>
> Consider the question of whether RBR Chief Statistician
> Robert Chung just threw up in his mouth a little. There
> are only two possible outcomes, but the odds I would
> place on the two outcomes are not 50/50.
>
> Ben
> Odds aren't even. That's why they call them odds.
That's odd.
-ilan
Scott
> In article
> <b0ea1f0a-52a3-49d3-8691-a0038ddd7...@x35g2000hsb.googlegroups.com>,
>
> Scott <hendricks_sc...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > Hell, I've owned a number of steel bikes over the years, currently
> > own two, and I've never ridden a lugged steel bike. Current state of
> > the art steel frame building rarely involves lugs.
>
> Well, lugs are not common practice, but state-of-the-art steel frame
> building frequently involve lugs. Indeed, I would think that at this
> juncture in time the state of the art steel bicycle *is* a lugged bike:
>
> http://www.richardsachs.com/
Oh, sh.. now we have to argue over what constitutes 'state of the
art'???