Fun with exponents

[AMuzi]

In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.
--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

I think that this will occur anywhere where the distance to work isn't that far. I have at least three big time jobs in San Leandro here and now that I live here I would ride a bike there rather than drive. Usually my office or cubical was large enough to store a bike while I was working.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>In today's news:
>https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/
>Which could happen, But it won't.

I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.

>Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
>Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
>that may be.

"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/>
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.


--
Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think

[Andre Jute]

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 4:28:14 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:
> In today's news:
>
> https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/
>
> Which could happen, But it won't.

Right. Statisticians in theory deny the impossibility of any imaginable future event, which is just common sense, but in real life some theoretically possible events have such a low probability that for practical purposes they are the same as impossible.

> Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
> Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
> that may be.

I would assign this possibility a much higher likelihood than the end of the car in favour of bicycles, or even the beginning of the end of the car. We don't know yet what the effect of the lockdown will be on the second wave, so a quarter million fatalities in total could be a possible prognostication, at least worth considering among other hypothesis. Offhand, I think the likelihood of 250,000 deaths from the virus in the US is receding, but it would be reckless to dismiss it out of hand as I do the cycling hypothesis.

Perhaps the dream of the universal bicyclist can be deepened in societies which are already by choice (as opposed to poverty) bicycle-centric, like the Dutch, or as a nation used to being guilt-ridden, like the Germans, but in almost every other affluent society where the car has already taken hold, it is too big an ask. In the US or Australia, forgeddabout it.

> --
> Andrew Muzi
> <www.yellowjersey.org/>
> Open every day since 1 April, 1971

Andre Jute
I vote with Jeff, always the safe option

[Andre Jute]

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 7:25:30 PM UTC+1, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>
> I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
> polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
> trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

When the numbers are really, really against what I have already decided we should do, I reach for the log-log paper.

[common sense snipped as being misplaced]

>
> --
> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
> 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
> Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
> Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

Andre Jute
"Reality is what I say it is," said the rabbit before popping back into the top hat.

[John B.]

On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>In today's news:
>
>https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/
>
>Which could happen, But it won't.
>
>Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
>Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
>that may be.

Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that.

[John B.]

On Fri, 22 May 2020 22:09:06 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote:
>> On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>
>>> In today's news:
>>>
>>> https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/
>>>
>>> Which could happen, But it won't.
>>>
>>> Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
>>> Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
>>> that may be.
>>
>> Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-(
>
>
>Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that.

I just keep score and as of May 22, 2020, 22:18 GMT y'all were at
97,562, and the "new cases" on that date was +22,407 so unless the new
case rate drops a remarkable amount tomorrow y'all will have over
100,000 deaths, since 29 February.

At the rate you are going you could easily hit 250,000 by next week.
(250,000-97562=152438/22,407=6.8)

--
cheers,

John B.

[Tosspot]

It's the most bigly yuge, unbelievable how great America is. Amazing
really. Nobody would have died if it wasn't for the incompetence of the
Obama administration and Hilary controlling the lizards from jail, and
aquarium cleaner! Who would have believed how effective aquarium clear
is, even me as a foremost medical expert, America amazes me, have you
seen the sky? So big! Bigger than anyone elses, before I came to power
you could fit the sky in your pocket, now look at it! Wow! Squirrel!

[AMuzi]

Trees grow but trees do not grow to heaven.

[Tosspot]

True, because alas you can't be killing Americans forever, but you can
get to a quarter of a million without breaking a swat. Or indeed, a
small deciduous .

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Fri, 22 May 2020 15:49:44 -0700 (PDT), Andre Jute
<fiul...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 7:25:30 PM UTC+1, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>>
>> I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
>> polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
>> trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

>When the numbers are really, really against what I have
>already decided we should do, I reach for the log-log paper.

Around here, log-log paper is so common that it grows on trees.
<http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/pics/home/Firewood-2019.jpg>
If I want the fire to grow exponentially quick, I start my wood burner
with log-log paper.

>[common sense snipped as being misplaced]

It's not as common as one might hope.

>Andre Jute
>"Reality is what I say it is," said the rabbit before popping back into the top hat.

What one rabbit says, is of little import. However, when the media
discovers this one rabbits view of reality, interprets the words to
comply with their agenda, and summarizes the result to make it
suitable for general consumption, it soon becomes the new reality,
even if it is distorted, misinterpreted, or wrong.

Reality belongs to the highest bidder.

[pH]

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 3:01:55 PM UTC-7, cyom wrote:
> On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 11:25:30 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

> If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think

In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).

In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.

One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.

There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu. 0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.

I was up at my Mom's in Napa last weekend. My cousin came in and--visibly nervous--would not hug anyone. We are all healthy. I could tell she was unhappy just being there w/ us.

My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.

In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?
What does "testing positive mean?

I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear in the general public and now understand how it was possible to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.

Bicycle contend:helmet. mavic receivershiop. double-butted spokes

pH in Aptos

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 23 May 2020 15:14:55 -0700 (PDT), pH <wb6...@gmail.com> wrote:

>In the last few weeks I've run across two old co-workers at a local supermarket (Trader Joe's).
>In both cases, each backed away with fear in his eyes as I approached to shake hands.
>These were both Health Dept. employees who should know better.
>One evenually and reluctantly offered to tap elbows, which I declined. The other would not approach.

That's because you weren't wearing a "Covid Suit":
<https://www.hazmatnation.com/this-covid-19-suit-protects-you-inside-a-bubble/>
At least it's somewhat aerodynamic.

>There was an article in the San Jose Mercury On May 20 or 21, I think, section B pg 1 and continued on p. 3.
>It was a Stanford study wherein they concluded that the mortatility rate
>of the current thingie going around is roughly eqivalent to the flu.
>0.04-0.4% if I recall rightly. I was surprised that
>this did not show up more in the news, but passed w/o any comment.

It's somewhat higher depending on your political affiliation:

"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/>

My guess(tm) of the world average best guess(tm) is about 2% mortality
rate. However, don't worry too much. Since medical errors are
allegedly the third greatest cause of death in the US, you'll be in
good hands:
"Are medical errors really the third most common cause of death
in the U.S.? (2019 edition)"
<https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/are-medical-errors-really-the-third-most-common-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s-2019-edition/>

>My daughter, the paramedic says that while she thinks Caronavirus
>is a real thing it does not seem to be much of an issue.

As long as we are still officially in lockdown and house arrest,
propagation of the virus will be mostly by the arrogant, sloppy, or
stupid. Actually that might be beneficial if you're a believer (and
practitioner) of eugenics. However, as soon as commuting, shopping,
meetings, and other activities that require direct human interaction,
things are likely to get much worse.

>In the meatime, I just discovered that my colon tests positive
>for E. coli!! Oh no! Should I be concerned?

Maybe:
<https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926121>
Which strain?

Incidentally, several years ago, I had various irritating, but not
serious digestive problems. I then had a series of unrelated kidney
stone operations and a colonoscopy. In all of these, it was customary
to administer a broad spectrum antibiotic (Cipro) that killed most of
the bacteria in the stomach and intestines (including E-coli). As I
went though the series of operations, the digestive problems rapidly
disappeared and haven't returned. My guess(tm) is that I had some
kind of bacterial infection. It might be a good idea to look into the
possibilities if you're having digestive issues.

>What does "testing positive mean?

It means more money for the medical profession.

>I have been dismayed at how easy it has been to instill fear
>in the general public and now understand how it was possible
>to ship Japanese American citizens to camps in WWII.

More like fear of something we know nothing about. We tend to believe
that nothing bad can happen without a culprit. When something bad
happens anyway, we go looking for the culprit. I once worked for a
company that could not solve any problem without first blaming someone
for having caused the problem. Since it didn't make any difference, I
volunteered to be the de facto culprit and recipient of the blame if
it would help to move the committee toward working on a solution. That
worked, until they got tired of dealing with me.

>Bicycle contend:helmet. mavic receivershiop. double-butted spokes

Sigh... You can do better than that.

Last chance. Home Power Magazine collection. Two bankers boxes full.
You pickup or they go to the dump.

[jbeattie]

The article in toto isn't that encouraging. https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/20/stanford-researcher-says-coronavirus-isnt-as-fatal-as-we-thought-critics-say-hes-missing-the-point/


During WW II we used the local livestock auction yard to corral the Japanese. https://oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/japanese_internment/#.XsmqQWhKgRk

This time around, we used the fairgrounds for an unnecessary field hospital. Not saying that the government/public health response was the right one, but it isn't anything like the internment of the Japanese. Nor is it Nazi Germany, Stalinist Russia or what-have-you. It may be economic suicide or a wrong response, but it is certainly within the range of reasonable and constitutional responses -- although certain emergency orders may violate aspects of state constitutions or statutes. https://tinyurl.com/ya35omdj The Oregon SC stayed that order. But for a split second, Judge Shirtcliff freed me from the shackles of the stay-at-home order. I ran out to get a haircut. D'oh! Still closed. Out in Baker City, I probably could have gotten a discount cut from a local sheep-sheerer. Luckily my homies from Portland got to Zoom argue that motion because its a long f****** drive, and plane flights are to Pendleton or Boise, and they always break. You sit there on the runway watching tumbleweeds roll by while Gomer runs to Western Auto for a part. Welcome to Eastern Ory-Gun. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703559004575256322858343994 God's social distancing.

-- Jay Beattie.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

The very real problem with studies from Stanford and such are that the CDC has the worst possible information and the state testing is absurd. Only 20% of the people being tested test positive because they are only allowing people to be tested if they have coughing and a fever. This is a particularly bad allergy season and people have been frightened out of their wits and have a reverse placebo effect in which they are convinced that they are ill.

This is an EXTREMELY biased sampling from which to select and so none of these studies are worth the paper they have been written on. Bad numbers in = bad numbers out.

Just to repeat myself - the CDC also has a department that supplies death statistics to the insurance industry. They have no political skin in the game and they are trying to supply accurate information to their target audience. Rather that 90,000+ deaths they are showing a linear progression to what will eventually be something like 20,000 across the US. That is about a third of the annual seasonal flu deaths.

You have to be careful of seasonal flu deaths because there is no requirement for them to report death victims as being seasonal flu positive and so there is something like a 300% wide estimate of the numbers of deaths from the seasonal flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04102020/nchs-data.html

The most important thing is that the death rates are 95% of normal. How would this be possible if more people than normal were dying from a deadly disease?

Also observe all of the Lame Stream Media accounts of "Young man almost dies of covid-19"! the pictures in that particular article showed a man obviously a weight lifter before having wasted away quite a bit after laying in a hospital bed for two weeks. If he were on a ventilator as was suggested, he would be being fed intravenously and of COURSE he would lose a lot of weight. Also they give NO health history of this guy. For all we know he could be gay and have AIDS. That would mean that his immune system is practically ineffective.

This guy was supposedly a nurse and was around infected people. But most healthy people do not catch covid-19 even when heavily exposed. That is a unique feature of this virus. It is only dangerous to extremely ill people not expected to live the year out anyway. Seasonal flu is especially deadly to children 5 and under, pregnant women and those who have been pregnant in the last 6 months.

I will say this - most WORKING epidemiologists have totally disagreed with Fauci on every point. Either clean up the CDC or turn statistics over to Universities that are less likely to politicize their statistics.

[news18]

On Sat, 23 May 2020 11:38:17 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:


>
> Around here, log-log paper is so common that it grows on trees.

FWIW, I recently discovered that our new printer, a Canon TS9565, will,
amongst other patterns, print graph paper on demand. No Log or Log paper,
now have I been able to discover how to insert it ino the pattern
templates.

It also does (music) staff paper.

Bicycle content; not riding today as BoM is recording 24 knot wind gusts.

[Sepp Ruf]

AMuzi wrote:
> In today's news:
>
> https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/
>
> Which could happen, But it won't.

You missed next day's science!
<https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/05/23/leaving-hand-sanitizer-in-hot-vehicles-a-fire-risk/>
Executive summary: Car drivers and passengers will all die in exploding
cars or, alternatively, due to evaporation rendering their hand sanitizers
ineffective.

[sms]

On 5/22/2020 11:25 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

<snip>

> 1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
> difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
> probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
> van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
> installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
> passenger area will be difficult.

True.

> 2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
> automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
> bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
> attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
> reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
> tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
> of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
> more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

The number of workers that will be able to work in the office is going
to be dramatically reduced, at least in this area.

For decades, companies have been "compacting" their workers. It used to
be that you allowed 350 square feet of office space per worker (this
included everything in a building). So a 100,000 square food building
would hold 285 employees. Now it's down to 100 square feet so you're at
1000 employees in that same 100,000 square foot building.

The tech companies are already announcing that workers can work from
home "forever" and only come into the office when necessary. The
companies that were certain that unless they could see the worker at all
times have realized how to "manage by results" or "manage by monitoring."

Also, now there is much less of a reason to live in an absurdly
expensive area just to be close to work.

> 3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
> and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
> dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
> aforementioned are controversial.

Maybe not in Santa Cruz, but definitely happening in Silicon Valley.
Secure parking, showers, bicycle infrastructure, etc..

> 4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
> "knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
> seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
> applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
> probably reduce the need to commute.

Ah, Zoom. Loved it at first, now it's becoming as annoying at 350 slide
Powerpoint presentations. On Friday I had three Zoom meetings, and could
have had more but skipped some. My normal commute is about 1000 feet,
but I had to go to a lot of meetings around the Bay Area, including in
Santa Cruz and San Francisco.

> 5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
> direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
> levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
> rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
> political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
> because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
> inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
> will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
> expense elsewhere.

You missed one other factor that could change things. Electric bicycle
prices have come down significantly. You can buy a decent mid-drive
electric bicycle for $1500
<https://electricbikereview.com/forums/threads/buzz-e-bike-review-the-most-affordable-mid-drive-electric-bike-on-the-market.32715/>,
and a decent rear-wheel-drive electric bicycle for $1000. A 10 mile
commute that few people would do on a regular bicycle is now more
tolerable. The adoption of electric bicycles has been slow in the U.S.,
but with the prices in free-fall, that could change.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is a hoax. The total death rate in the USA is 95% of normal. If we are having all these additional deaths from this great disease where are they? You can argue that we are having fewer vehicular deaths though that is perhaps questionable. But we also are having a much higher suicide rate which more than offsets any savings from vehicular deaths. People who are losing all hope of being able to keep a roof over the heads of their family and food on the table are giving up and seeing live for themselves as useless.

There are fewer deaths in hospitals because a large number of elective surgeries end in deaths. Which isn't to say that not getting elective surgeries aren't ending also on death. Cancer surgeries for instance normally would end in death though perhaps at a more distant date.

[Frank Krygowski]

On 5/24/2020 11:36 AM, cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
>
> I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is a hoax.

Don't offer it here, Tom. We're not worthy of your unique wisdome. Get
out and tell the world!

You clearly haven't spent enough time marching around with your sign on
a stick. Get to it, man!

--
- Frank Krygowski

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Somehow the data from the CDC themselves doesn't seem to make it through that moronic brain of yours. No wonder you were a teacher and not a real engineer. Facts cannot penetrate your head.

It you look at the chart showing the rise in covid-19 cases you do not see any corresponding rise in overall deaths. That is because there weren't any. Or so slight as to be statistically insignificant. And speaking of insignificant it is time for you to post more of your utter ignorance.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04102020/nchs-data.html

I understand that when you are a piece of shit you simply cannot help yourself from acting like a piece of shit. Have a good death. Soon.

[John B. Slocomb]

On Sun, 24 May 2020 14:01:05 +0200, Sepp Ruf <inq...@Safe-mail.net>
wrote:

Strange thing. We've had a plastic tube of hand sanitizer (with a
screw on cap) in the car ever since the virus boogy hit town. In fact
several tubes. and so far not a single one has detonated :-)

Are we buying the wrong sort of sanitizer?
--

Cheers,

John B.

[John B. Slocomb]

Ah well, poor old Frank was so dumb that he finally retired and owns
his own home somewhere in the wilds of Ohio and seems to be happily
retired.

While blindingly intelligent Tommy has never held a job long enough to
accumulate sufficient funds to buy a house and has sponged off his
mother all his life and is currently not retired and cannot find work
and lives on Social Security and unemployment payments and bemoans the
high cost of groceries.

By Gorry Tommy, you are certainly someone to be emulated!

--

Cheers,

John B.

[John B. Slocomb]

Tommy, you can't provide proof positive of anything, even peeing in
your britches as people would simply believe that you were simply too
stupid to find your own whanger.

"Poor old guy, can't even locate his own thingie". But I suppose
that's why they call him "short horn Tommy". Or was it "Tommy short
horn?"
--

Cheers,

John B.

[Andre Jute]

On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 6:46:11 PM UTC+1, cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
> On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 8:45:02 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
> > On 5/24/2020 11:36 AM, cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
> > >
> > > I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is a hoax.
> >
> > Don't offer it here, Tom. We're not worthy of your unique wisdome. Get
> > out and tell the world!

Speak for yourself, Franki-boy. You're not the gate-keeper on RBT. Just in case you're being stupid again, it means you don't decide who can be a member.

> > You clearly haven't spent enough time marching around with your sign on
> > a stick. Get to it, man!

You should leave the snark at home. You have zero talent for repartee, in fact zero talent for anything useful. All we can see is a pompous pig's bladder full of emptiness.

> > --
> > - Frank Krygowski
>
> Somehow the data from the CDC themselves doesn't seem to make it through that moronic brain of yours. No wonder you were a teacher and not a real engineer. Facts cannot penetrate your head.

Actually, Tom, this is an amusing exchange, considering all the times that the limp-brain Krygowski has claimed to be a statistical maven -- and been caught out being stupid or simply lying.

> It you look at the chart showing the rise in covid-19 cases you do not see any corresponding rise in overall deaths. That is because there weren't any. Or so slight as to be statistically insignificant. And speaking of insignificant it is time for you to post more of your utter ignorance.
>
> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04102020/nchs-data.html

That's an interesting graph that fully bears out your conclusion. Frank-boy and the other clowns whose mode of persuasion is to deny everything you say should check the rather short blue line to the right of the steeply rising red line. Perhaps the clowns denying the truth mistake the percentages for numbers: yo, clowns, on the blue lines are numbers of total deaths, the rest are percentages.

> I understand that when you are a piece of shit you simply cannot help yourself from acting like a piece of shit. Have a good death. Soon.

Nah, I want Franki-boy Kygowski to have a long miserable life. He's a fine example of what I do to bullies and scum, such a coward that instead of engaging with me he pretends not to read my posts. If Franki-boy is what passes for a "Professor" in Youngstown, God help Ohio.

I was paid more in a year for making statistics sing than Franki-boy earned in a lifetime, but any freshman taking a stats filler class can interpret such a simple graph. That Franki-boy can't read that simple graph right is an indisputable final judgement on his inability to grasp the meaning of statistics.

Ande Jute
Sad!

[Andre Jute]

On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 2:14:17 PM UTC+1, sms wrote:
> On 5/22/2020 11:25 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>
> > If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
> > of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
> > more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.
>
> The number of workers that will be able to work in the office is going
> to be dramatically reduced, at least in this area.

When I came to live in Ireland, people I consulted to said I was crazy. Even some of my publishers let it be known that they would prefer to have me in London (actually up the road in Cambridge) or in New York, where they could keep an eye on their investment. Back then my communications were the phone, the fax and he modem. The modem was the best available, 300 baud -- that's right, three hundred baud. A runner with a cleft stick would have been faster. But by 1996 I was able to say that I wouldn't get on a plane to appear in person any more, and shortly videoconferencing made the entire question moot. Today's facilities make those available as recently as 1996 look positively Neanderthal.

But if today working from home is a breeze for all kinds of knowledge workers, keeping them motivated to work on is an entirely new problem, and potentially quite serious. Some people are going to miss working in groups, face to face; social pressure from colleagues is one of the most effective motivators, and underrated even by experts because it is invisible and insidious.

Andre Jute
Hidden persuader

[news18]

Probably, but where is it stored?
Try the dash board for maximum chances.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 24 May 2020 08:36:16 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:

>I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is
>a hoax. The total death rate in the USA is 95% of normal. If
>we are having all these additional deaths from this great
>disease where are they?

On this animated graph perhaps.
<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/images/us-mortality-graph-animated-may72020.gif>
If you're into data visualization, there's plenty more:
<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/data-visualization.htm>

>You can argue that we are having...

No, you can do the arguing. You said you would offer positive proof
that the pandemic is a hoax. You provided to percentages that appear
to have been contrived for the occasion. If you want to prove
anything, such things like numbers, calculations, sources,
authoritative backup, examples, etc are considered useful. I won't
ask for error analysis or statistical significance because most of the
source data (provided by the states) has been tampered with.

I have a personal question. Feel free to ignore this question if it
offends you. Why is it so important to prove to me or this Usenet
newsgroup that the current pandemic is a hoax? We exchanged emails
about 3 weeks ago. Instead of replying to my questions and comments,
you ignored everything I wrote and proceeded to provide a long rant on
exactly the same topic. Why? Will proving that it's all a hoax bring
back those that have died from Covid-19 or who's death was accelerated
by the virus? Hardly, so why bother? Will you need to wait until a
friend or family member dies from Covid-19 before you become a
believer? I hope not.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 24 May 2020 01:03:38 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
wrote:

>On Sat, 23 May 2020 11:38:17 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>> Around here, log-log paper is so common that it grows on trees.

>FWIW, I recently discovered that our new printer, a Canon TS9565, will,
>amongst other patterns, print graph paper on demand. No Log or Log paper,
>now have I been able to discover how to insert it ino the pattern
>templates.

Cool. Will the printer do Smith Charts, navigation plotting sheets,
or official NRA targets? Those are the few graphs that I print on my
color laser printer. I have PDF and JPG images of all of these, but
it would be nice to have it built into the printer, especially when
trying to convince the printer to emulate an HP-GL plotter.

>It also does (music) staff paper.

I play piano and keyboard synthesizer, but somewhere along the line, I
forgot to learn how to read music. So, I play by ear and don't need
music paper.

>Bicycle content; not riding today as BoM is recording 24 knot wind gusts.

Sometime in the next two weeks, I plan to "consolidate" my bicycle
parts and pieces collection into some arrangement where I can actually
find things. When moving things around last week, I overloaded my
plastic toolbox, which dumped all the parts on the floor when the
toolbox handle broke and fell off.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 24 May 2020 18:06:28 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
wrote:

>If you're into data visualization, there's plenty more:
><https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/data-visualization.htm>

Sorry, wrong URL. Here are 19,135 Covid-19 graphical visualizations
from Tableau.com:
<https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/covid-19-viz-gallery>

[news18]

On Sun, 24 May 2020 18:24:19 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

> On Sun, 24 May 2020 01:03:38 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
> wrote:
>
>>On Sat, 23 May 2020 11:38:17 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>>> Around here, log-log paper is so common that it grows on trees.
>
>>FWIW, I recently discovered that our new printer, a Canon TS9565, will,
>>amongst other patterns, print graph paper on demand. No Log or Log
>>paper,
>>now have I been able to discover how to insert it ino the pattern
>>templates.
>
> Cool. Will the printer do Smith Charts, navigation plotting sheets, or
> official NRA targets?

The short answer is yes, if you have a file for them. I suggest postscrit
is more versatile.. This isn't the first printer where you could print
from templates. I first encontered that ability with the early last
printers, where some brands had capacity for an add-on ard disk that
could store form templates.

> Those are the few graphs that I print on my color
> laser printer. I have PDF and JPG images of all of these, but it would
> be nice to have it built into the printer,

that is te convenience of this printer, but I havent been able to find
out how to install my own templates, although this one will take a
SDCard, as per camera photo printing) so I imagine that putting your
files onto an SDcard would give you the same facility.

> especially when trying to
> convince the printer to emulate an HP-GL plotter.

At one stage I had both an A0 & A3 HP pen plotters and was fiddling with
a programe to convert postscript files to HP-GL. The A0 plotter died when
MS dropped HP-GL from their drivers and the only drivers were for inkjet
large format. Driving a pen plotter like an inkjet was disasterous on the
horizontal drive belt, not to mention printing time.

>>Bicycle content; not riding today as BoM is recording 24 knot wind
>>gusts.
>
> Sometime in the next two weeks, I plan to "consolidate" my bicycle parts
> and pieces collection into some arrangement where I can actually find
> things. When moving things around last week, I overloaded my plastic
> toolbox, which dumped all the parts on the floor when the toolbox handle
> broke and fell off.

That is the problem with plastic, it has a definite shortish life and
dropping a plastic tub full of bicycle bits can usually result in
sweeping up plastic bits with the parts.

[Sepp Ruf]

John B. Slocomb wrote:

> On Sun, 24 May 2020 14:01:05 +0200, Sepp Ruf wrote:
>> AMuzi wrote:
>>> In today's news:
>>>
>>> https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/
>>>
>>> Which could happen, But it won't.
>>
>> You missed next day's science!
>> <https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/05/23/leaving-hand-sanitizer-in-hot-vehicles-a-fire-risk/>
>> Executive summary: Car drivers and passengers will all die in exploding
>> cars or, alternatively, due to evaporation rendering their hand sanitizers
>> ineffective.
>
> Strange thing. We've had a plastic tube of hand sanitizer (with a
> screw on cap) in the car ever since the virus boogy hit town. In fact
> several tubes. and so far not a single one has detonated :-)

Toronto is less humid, that's why. Try a lighter!
(Caution! According to Maedup Statistics Inc., Zippo lighters were the
previous #1 cause of global VOC emissions.)

> Are we buying the wrong sort of sanitizer?

Possibly. Does the warning label depict a dead tree, a flame, or a spicy
chilli pepper dish?

[Rolf Mantel]

Am 24.05.2020 um 19:46 schrieb cycl...@yahoo.com:
> On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 8:45:02 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>> On 5/24/2020 11:36 AM, cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
>>>
>>> I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is a
>>> hoax.
>>
>> Don't offer it here, Tom. We're not worthy of your unique wisdome.
>> Get out and tell the world!
>>
>> You clearly haven't spent enough time marching around with your
>> sign on a stick. Get to it, man!

> Somehow the data from the CDC themselves doesn't seem to make it
> through that moronic brain of yours. No wonder you were a teacher and
> not a real engineer. Facts cannot penetrate your head.
>
> It you look at the chart showing the rise in covid-19 cases you do
> not see any corresponding rise in overall deaths. That is because
> there weren't any. Or so slight as to be statistically insignificant.
> And speaking of insignificant it is time for you to post more of your
> utter ignorance.
>
> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04102020/nchs-data.html

Fully correct. By April 10, near the start of the Covid outbreak, there
was no excess death rate in USA overall, only in New York State where
the outbreak started earlier. Please show us data from May if you wish
to convince us.

[Sepp Ruf]

Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Sun, 24 May 2020 08:36:16 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
>
>> I will offer you proof positive that the covid-19 pandemic is
>> a hoax. The total death rate in the USA is 95% of normal. If
>> we are having all these additional deaths from this great
>> disease where are they?
>
> On this animated graph perhaps.
> <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/images/us-mortality-graph-animated-may72020.gif>

That one is particularly awful because it's strictly displaying percentages
of document entries cyclintom does not believe. I hope you aren't trying to
raise anyone's blood pressure like Frank who stubbornly links anti-Trump
biased media right after cyclintom was ranting about them.

> If you're into data visualization, there's plenty more:

<https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/covid-19-viz-gallery>
[fixed link inserted]

Probably overwhelming cyclintom's remaining information evaluation capabilities.

Hmmm, at least one seems personally useful to me,
<https://public.tableau.com/profile/yuzo.tokutani#!/vizhome/Covid19-Chiba/sheet0>
I imagine it shows the virus count on my Chiba pair of cycling gloves,
washed only occasionally.

>> You can argue that we are having...
>
> No, you can do the arguing. You said you would offer positive proof
> that the pandemic is a hoax. You provided to percentages that appear
> to have been contrived for the occasion. If you want to prove
> anything, such things like numbers, calculations, sources,
> authoritative backup, examples, etc are considered useful. I won't
> ask for error analysis or statistical significance because most of the
> source data (provided by the states) has been tampered with.

Has Fauxi also tampered with data from Europe?

AT
<https://www.statistik.at/web_en/statistics/PeopleSociety/population/deaths/122945.html>
https://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/123052.html

BE
https://statbel.fgov.be/en/visuals/mortality

CH
<https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/health/state-health/mortality-causes-death.html>

DE
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_179_12621.html

ES
<https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Documents/informesMoMo2020/MoMo_Situacion%20a%2021%20de%20mayo_CNE.pdf>

FR
https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4493806?sommaire=4493845

NL
https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/reeksen/mortality-per-week

NO
https://www.ssb.no/en/statbank/table/12954

SE
<https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/pong/tables-and-graphs/preliminary-statistics-on-deaths/>

UK
<https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020#deaths-registered-by-week>


--
<https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/covid-19-rules-applied-to-driving/>

[AMuzi]

Standard design warning labels have a skull and crossbones,
which instantly conveys to the user, "Completely harmless,
just another government warning requirement"

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

[Frank Krygowski]

On 5/24/2020 9:24 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>
> I play piano and keyboard synthesizer, but somewhere along the line, I
> forgot to learn how to read music. So, I play by ear and don't need
> music paper.

I play by ear too, but I find that sheet music is a useful resource, if
only for reminders of how a tune starts. Give me the first measure or
two (the "incipits") and I'm good to go on many, many tunes. But I have
"the dots" for hundreds stored in an app on my phone. I'm a competent
reader.


--
- Frank Krygowski

[Rolf Mantel]

As a kid, I played "real" piano pieces, not just tues, all off by heart
(once I'd learned them). After a break of a few years (after losing my
music scores at some relocation) I found I could start and play the
first bits, sometimes three bars, sometimes five pages.

Then I needed to find the scores on the internet, and looking at the
paper allowed my to re-learn the easier ones quite quickly, the one I
failed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iky27JBcAbE showed me my brain
capacity is not infinite (my son is playing that one now, as a school
kid he can still learn this large number of notes in a few days).

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Mon, 25 May 2020 12:16:21 +0200, Sepp Ruf <inq...@Safe-mail.net>
wrote:

>> If you're into data visualization, there's plenty more:
><https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/covid-19-viz-gallery>
>[fixed link inserted]

Thanks. If the quality of the visualization is insufficient, perhaps
the quantity will provide a usable substitute.

>Hmmm, at least one seems personally useful to me,
><https://public.tableau.com/profile/yuzo.tokutani#!/vizhome/Covid19-Chiba/sheet0>
>I imagine it shows the virus count on my Chiba pair of cycling gloves,
>washed only occasionally.

Google translate couldn't do anything with the Japanese GIF file but
did successfully translate the URL in the lower left corner. You're
probably ok if you wash your gloves in diluted Clorox. Gloves are
useful to prevent you from touching your face.

>Has Fauxi also tampered with data from Europe?

Not that I know about. However, since everyone is ignoring CDC, WHO,
and Trump administration guidelines for cause of death and how to
count infections, active infections, and deaths, I suppose it's
possible. These days, anyone with a computah can be an
epidemiologist.

<https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/>
The government’s disease-fighting agency is conflating
viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics
that governors depend on to reopen their economies.
Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing
the same.
Despite the CDC admitting that it made a giant blunder that was
unlikely to have been accidental, I'm not seeing any evidence of the
numbers being unscrambled.

This is a month old, but seems to still be a problem:
"Why America is probably undercounting coronavirus deaths"
<https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/20/covid-count>

"How COVID-19 Deaths Are Counted"
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/>
Assigning a cause of death is never straightforward, but
data on excess deaths suggest coronavirus death tolls
are likely an underestimate.

Nice list of mortality rates in Europe. It will be interesting
reading.

>AT
><https://www.statistik.at/web_en/statistics/PeopleSociety/population/deaths/122945.html>
>https://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/123052.html
>
>BE
>https://statbel.fgov.be/en/visuals/mortality
>
>CH
><https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/health/state-health/mortality-causes-death.html>
>
>DE
>https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_179_12621.html
>
>ES
><https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Documents/informesMoMo2020/MoMo_Situacion%20a%2021%20de%20mayo_CNE.pdf>
>
>FR
>https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/4493806?sommaire=4493845
>
>NL
>https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/reeksen/mortality-per-week
>
>NO
>https://www.ssb.no/en/statbank/table/12954
>
>SE
><https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/pong/tables-and-graphs/preliminary-statistics-on-deaths/>
>
>UK
><https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020#deaths-registered-by-week>


--

[Jeff Liebermann]

That doesn't work for the way my brain is wired. I simply can't go
from sheet music to keyboard without fumbling. Sight reading is a
lost cause for me. I gave up long ago. I'm also not very good at
hearing a tune, and then playing it, although I can eventually manage
to play something that vaguely resembles the original. Worse, I
rarely play anything twice the same way, which allows me considerable
creative license, complete with mistakes and failed experiments. So,
I'm relegated to perpetual improvisation, which doesn't really require
sheet music. Judge for yourself (and try to ignore my numerous
mistakes):
<http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/music/>

Korg DSS-1 repair:
<http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/Korg_DSS-1/>

I just dug through the manual on my HP Color LaserJet Pro MFP M477fnw
printer and couldn't find anything under the usual buzzwords
(template, overlay, form, watermark, background, etc). Thanks for the
clues and I'll do some more digging when I have more time.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

I took a hard ride yesterday that wasn't that long. Only 33 miles but with a lot of hard climbing over 9%. And I wasn't feeling all that chipper.

Coming back I took a long cut to take in a little more climbing and that dropped down into a high-priced upper middle class neighborhood. In a couple of places are older smaller homes that people that really didn't have the money to live there could squeeze in if they were willing to work overtime to make the payments and allow their kids to go to better schools with less chance of being beat up by bullies and punks.

As I came down one of the streets there were three sheriff's cars there and they had just apparently stopped one poor man from committing suicide. He was losing his home and couldn't afford to put food on the table. This man was screaming like a tortured baby. I cannot tell you the effect it had on me. What would he do in the near future? What could I possibly do for this poor tortured soul.

This is the effects of Newson's lockdown. People all over this state have now gone through their entire life savings

Why I can hope for is that Ohio declares bankruptcy and that Frank no longer gets his pension. Let's leave him like that for the next 10 years.

When they say that the suicide rate is going to double I can now believe after hearing that painful cry. Far better that it was from Frank than a 35 year old man.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

When I was a child we still had our house plumbed for gas lights Although we had been converted to electricity the soot marks were still on the ceiling above each light. Our stove was coal fired. The Milk delivery and the junkman were still wagons powered by a horse. The milkman very soon converted to milk trucks which were custom made for the job. He also delivered ice since our ice box was still and ice box.

I wonder how many people would know about a runner with a cleft stick means.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Jeff, either you understand statistics or you do not. I am not playing with them. I am offering you the perfectly straight answers.

Here they are again: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04102020/nchs-data.html

Now if you look at it the total death rates for this year are about 95% of what they were last year. If you look at the end of this graph the suddenly rising red line is the supposed covid-19 death rates.

But you see NO rise in the total death rates. Instead what you see is that deaths that were attributed to something else, now being attributed to covid-17.

Why is this? Because the Federal Government gives a $37,000 subsidy for each reported covid-19 death reported. Therefore, and quite suddenly everything is a covid-19 death. I expect this subsidy was supposed to be for cleanup of the facilities to prevent further infections.

Now this is INDEPENDENT of covid-19 infections. These numbers are ruled not by hospital subsidies but by testing or SUSPICION. Why would that be since there weren't any positive tests that weren't too expensive for the first half of this pandemic? Somebody is being paid to be suspicious since 80% of those that contract the disease do not have symptoms or their symptoms are very mild and mistaken for allergies and the like. The 20% of those offering serious symptoms are those on the very verge of dying anyway. Perhaps the virus sped things along but not by much since over this country a VERY large percentage of those dying were in nursing homes - note that those places aren't called 'recovery wards' for a reason.

In any case, that graph completely illustrates what is going on. That unless you can suggest a reason that every other reason for dying suddenly stopped and only covid-19 was left. (Also not the pneumonia line which is the large cause of death of old people - that would NOT be reduced for any reason)

The absence of any growth in the total numbers of deaths is completely illustrative of what happened.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 11:44:12 PM UTC-7, news18 wrote:
> >
> > Sometime in the next two weeks, I plan to "consolidate" my bicycle parts
> > and pieces collection into some arrangement where I can actually find
> > things. When moving things around last week, I overloaded my plastic
> > toolbox, which dumped all the parts on the floor when the toolbox handle
> > broke and fell off.
>
> That is the problem with plastic, it has a definite shortish life and
> dropping a plastic tub full of bicycle bits can usually result in
> sweeping up plastic bits with the parts.

Because you do not know how to select tool boxes do not blame plastic. I have plastic tool boxes for every one of my hobbies down to sailboat repair and my car toolset with 1/4", 3/8ths" and 1/2 inch socket sets, all of the heavy open end and box wrenches and all the way down to torque wrenches and complete screwdriver sets. Most of these boxes weigh near or over 100 lbs (that's 45 Kilos to Diggers) and I have never broken one.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Unless you can determine how the total death rates can fall a bit while the "added" deaths from covid-19 can add up to almost the total deaths while pneumonia deaths can remain fairly static I don't have to convince anyone of anything.

Why is it that people who do not know how statics can be abused are the first ones that try to use them to prove their points?

[jbeattie]

Go home and let the professionals work.

>
> This is the effects of Newson's lockdown. People all over this state have now gone through their entire life savings
>
> Why I can hope for is that Ohio declares bankruptcy and that Frank no longer gets his pension. Let's leave him like that for the next 10 years.
>
> When they say that the suicide rate is going to double I can now believe after hearing that painful cry. Far better that it was from Frank than a 35 year old man.

Are you sure didn't imagine this between doses of Haldol? https://www.nclc.org/issues/foreclosures-and-mortgages/covid-19-state-foreclosure-moratoriums-and-stays.html The courts are not hearing judicial foreclosure cases in California. https://www.fresnobee.com/fresnoland/article241845456.html

And do you know how long it takes to do a non-judicial foreclose in California? Even if the guy was getting foreclosed, the default probably occurred many months ago. Read this: https://www.borowitzclark.com/california-foreclosure-timeline/ Did Governor Newsom go back in time and ruin this guy's life? I thought only Governor Schwarzenegger could time travel. Not that the shut down isn't causing economic hardship, but you could imagine a more believable story of COVID-19 woe.

-- Jay Beattie

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Is there even a mind inside of your head? You remind me of my brother-in-law. He was a lawyer and a good one by trade and the worlds biggest asshole by virtue.

This guy wasn't being foreclosed you blockhead. He was looking forward to it with his place of employment gone and no employment in sight, his savings almost exhausted and absolutely no way to redeem what he thought was his clear path to success.

But what the fuck to you care? You live up on the hill right? You can look down on the homeless and not even see them. You can look down on the dope addicts and believe that it was their fault. That they were born that way - losers that couldn't live within the Obama parody of honesty. You are one sick SOB.

[Andre Jute]

Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What that graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue vertical lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count in which we can have near perfect confidence), with a substitution of the presumptive causes (the red line which is a percentage, in which we can by the admissions of the people who concocted it have very moderate confidence).

In addition we have the datum that the fatalities ascribed to Covid-19 is hugely skewed to to very old people -- in my country, for instance, the last time I looked the median age of fatalities to the virus was 81. That is in addition to a falling "normal" death rate*, and the diagnostic and post mortem difficulties created by the medical profession correctly (for the safety of their staffs and families and other patients) assuming that any death, including other normally expected geriatric fatalities, is caused by the virus and therefore the corpse is infected. Unlike Tom, I don't necessarily think that over-counting as virus fatalities perfectly normal bell-curve deaths is a conspiracy, but I'm absolutely certain it happens, and the graph Tom has shown you several times now bears out this analysis.

Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you think you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including the fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions.

Andre Jute
*Which just proves my point that if you go to hospital, the hospital will make you sicker, except when they manage to kill you.

[Andre Jute]

On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 9:18:10 PM UTC+1, cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
> On Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 5:54:49 PM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
>
> I wonder how many people would know about a runner with a cleft stick means.

I don't write for the unread and untravelled. That's too much like hard work. -- AJ

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

I just got an update from the CDC and it is rather remarkable. It shows a higher than predicted number of deaths for the end of April and May so far.

The problem is that these aren't really "predicted" since they are death certificates that have been entered into the CDC system.

There is a way to turn off the civid-19 deaths and the predicted deaths are THE SAME. So they are already predicting suicides and such being way up. This means that the CDC knows that covid-19 isn't causing deaths and that it is all false reporting but they are rather helpless in the face of "cause of death" reporting by hospital administrators.

Now that I'm a registered researcher I should get better info.

[John B. Slocomb]

On Mon, 25 May 2020 12:09:29 -0400, Frank Krygowski
<frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

But in essence don't most musicians "play by ear" at least in one
sense of the word? My brother, while in collage was striving to become
a concert pianist (he never made it) and I remember him playing a
piece of music over and over and over, literally for hours at a time,
until he could play it the way he wanted it to sound.
--

Cheers,

John B.

[Frank Krygowski]

It varies tremendously, depending on the individual and the type of
music. It may depend partly on the instrument as well.

I play several string and woodwind instruments, but mostly simple music
just for fun - folk or traditional tunes from the British Isles,
Appalachia, New England, Canada plus some early music, etc. Back in my
early years, I did play "serious" music - clarinet concertos etc.

I can't sight read classical guitar or its folky cousin, fingerpicking
guitar pieces. There are too choices of string and fret to play any
particular note, and if you use the wrong position you find yourself
unable to get to the next phrase. (There are notations to cover that,
but unlike the notes themselves, I can't digest those quickly enough.)
But things like clarinet, recorder, tin whistle, flute usually have just
one choice of fingering. The same is true of "fiddle," although if you
call it a "violin" you're expected to be able to play in many different
positions up the neck.

But there are many different types of skill. I was once playing for a
madrigal dinner as part of a recorder consort. We played carefully
arranged pieces as part of the actual performance, but the dinner music
portion of the evening was unscripted. The recorders, the harpsichord,
the harp, etc. just took turns doing whatever period pieces they chose,
to add relaxed variety.

At one point, the harpist began a lovely piece by O'Carolan that I was
familiar with, so I walked over and indicated by gestures that I'd like
to join in. The harpist nodded, so I played along, doing some melody,
some harmony.

Afterwards, the harpsichordist asked if I really did that spontaneously.
When I said of course I did, she expressed some jealousy. Despite being
well known in our area as a professional accompanist, she said she can't
play anything that's not on the page in front of her.

Which reminds me of a book I once read: "How To Play Piano Despite Years
of Lessons."

--
- Frank Krygowski

[jbeattie]

WTF, was the guy standing there delivering a soliloquy? Or did the voices tell you all of this? None of this makes sense -- if he has a house in a decent neighborhood in the Bay Area, he is probably among the work-from-home-capable majority. If he is a low wage earner, then he should be getting a stimulus check and massive unemployment benefits -- benefits that are so generous it will be difficult to get employees back when businesses re-open part time. If his life is so dire, it is more likely that he -- like me -- is a business owner, assuming any of this is true. If he got a delinquency notice, he has a year to figure out how to avoid a foreclosure. I got terms from Freddie Mac, and my business got Cares Act money for payroll. We haven't laid anyone off.

Unlike you, for years I was the guy picking these people up -- with cops and often with guys in white coats and tennis shoes with big syringes of Thorazine. Those looking for death-by-cop don't stand around discussing their finances, and the suicidal ones don't give speeches, not in my experience. They leave notes. Did you find any notes?

Your story sounds like a bad TV melodrama.

>
> But what the fuck to you care? You live up on the hill right? You can look down on the homeless and not even see them. You can look down on the dope addicts and believe that it was their fault. That they were born that way - losers that couldn't live within the Obama parody of honesty. You are one sick SOB.

I certainly care about the truth. This sounds made up to fit your well worn narrative. I'll stand corrected if you send me a link to a news story. Got one?


-- Jay Beattie.

[news18]

On Mon, 25 May 2020 14:28:07 -0700, cyclintom wrote:


> Is there even a mind inside of your head? You remind me of my
> brother-in-law. He was a lawyer and a good one by trade and the worlds
> biggest asshole by virtue.

As some one said on the radio once; once you get over the morality of
your beliefs it is easy to be a successfu lawyer with the law.

> This guy wasn't being foreclosed you blockhead. He was looking forward
> to it with his place of employment gone and no employment in sight, his
> savings almost exhausted and absolutely no way to redeem what he thought
> was his clear path to success.
>
> But what the fuck to you care? You live up on the hill right? You can
> look down on the homeless and not even see them. You can look down on
> the dope addicts and believe that it was their fault. That they were
> born that way - losers that couldn't live within the Obama parody of
> honesty. You are one sick SOB.

Nope, you are just pointing out one moment in time with out any
backstory. And there is always a back story to explain why some poor
fellow/greedy smuck is in that position. People who take out housing
loans based on the "good times always continuing" are perennial and then
the good times suddenly hick up, as they always do,and history repeats.

[Frank Krygowski]

Tom, I could easily live for ten years with no pension income. It
wouldn't affect my lifestyle in the least. At worst, it might affect the
amount I give to charity.

>>>>
>>>> When they say that the suicide rate is going to double I can now believe after hearing that painful cry. Far better that it was from Frank than a 35 year old man.
>>>
>>> Are you sure didn't imagine this between doses of Haldol? https://www.nclc.org/issues/foreclosures-and-mortgages/covid-19-state-foreclosure-moratoriums-and-stays.html The courts are not hearing judicial foreclosure cases in California. https://www.fresnobee.com/fresnoland/article241845456.html
>>>
>>> And do you know how long it takes to do a non-judicial foreclose in California? Even if the guy was getting foreclosed, the default probably occurred many months ago. Read this: https://www.borowitzclark.com/california-foreclosure-timeline/ Did Governor Newsom go back in time and ruin this guy's life? I thought only Governor Schwarzenegger could time travel. Not that the shut down isn't causing economic hardship, but you could imagine a more believable story of COVID-19 woe.
>>>
>>> -- Jay Beattie
>>
>> Is there even a mind inside of your head? You remind me of my brother-in-law. He was a lawyer and a good one by trade and the worlds biggest asshole by virtue.
>>
>> This guy wasn't being foreclosed you blockhead. He was looking forward to it with his place of employment gone and no employment in sight, his savings almost exhausted and absolutely no way to redeem what he thought was his clear path to success.
>
> WTF, was the guy standing there delivering a soliloquy? Or did the voices tell you all of this? None of this makes sense -- if he has a house in a decent neighborhood in the Bay Area, he is probably among the work-from-home-capable majority. If he is a low wage earner, then he should be getting a stimulus check and massive unemployment benefits -- benefits that are so generous it will be difficult to get employees back when businesses re-open part time. If his life is so dire, it is more likely that he -- like me -- is a business owner, assuming any of this is true. If he got a delinquency notice, he has a year to figure out how to avoid a foreclosure. I got terms from Freddie Mac, and my business got Cares Act money for payroll. We haven't laid anyone off.
>
> Unlike you, for years I was the guy picking these people up -- with cops and often with guys in white coats and tennis shoes with big syringes of Thorazine. Those looking for death-by-cop don't stand around discussing their finances, and the suicidal ones don't give speeches, not in my experience. They leave notes. Did you find any notes?
>
> Your story sounds like a bad TV melodrama.

His story bears a bit of resemblance to the time I was talking about the
rarity of stout tree branches hanging down at precisely the height of a
cyclist's head, and Tom came in here reporting he just got concussed by
one.

His fantasies are carefully timed to act as "proof" of whatever the hell
he hallucinated lately. But the tales are all anecdotes lacking the
actual evidence that would prove his brilliance to the world.

Which to me is clear indication there is no brilliance. Just bitter,
bitter fantasies.


--
- Frank Krygowski

[news18]

Tomm7y, thank you for agreeing with me that plastic has a shortage life
span. When is reuse various plastic containers after their inital design
use, I do not expect them to llast for my life time.

The plastic plant guards I constrct from cutting the top and bottom of
2litre plastic milk bottles. These are crafted from our normal household
waste stream and serve a hiatus of one or a few years until they rejoin
the recyclable items waste bin.

The particuar plastic container that stores the majority of my collection
of bicycle parts are plastic ice cream tubs of about the 4l(1gal?) size
and some could have given service for up to 30 year. Again, another free
container that provided service far beyond its life time. So , if one
slips off the shelf or out of my hands and a load of crank axles crashes
to the garage floor, it really is of no loss if the agged plastic ice
cream container disintegrates.

It certainly given me very economical and exceedingly efficent service
for the storage of bicycle parts. A quick eyeball says I have about
fifteen in stacks of two-three high storing stuff like axles, bearing,
cables, chain, reflectors, brake assemblies, etc, etc.

Now, your suggestin is that I should instead purchased, at cost the
equivalent on plastic tool bnoxes. Really. what a compete waste of money
as there is no guarantted they would last as long and npt doo the same if
they were the same age.

As to carrying 100 lbs, there are very few pastic containers that will do
that for a long WORKING life. Are you familiary with plastic Fish Crates,
the exact one you see in all the movies and dumentairies showing
fishermen/women unloadinf theit catch in bulk. About 30 years ago, we
purchased about a dozn of those and their main purpose was mostly to
carry foodstuffs, when we did catering for large groups on bicycle rides
and other mass community activites. Of ciurse they were useful for
washing the dogs, mixing soil, etc, etc over time. Only four of those
dozen remain in tact with our major splits.

As to tool boxes, I carry all tools in metal tool boxes and I've always
found commercial sets to be a major waste of money. half the set never
gets used and sometime you want four of the one size & type spanner.

Anyway, each to their own.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Mon, 25 May 2020 13:34:26 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:

>Here they are again: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04102020/nchs-data.html
>Now if you look at it the total death rates for this year are about 95% of what they were last year.
>If you look at the end of this graph the suddenly rising red line is the supposed covid-19 death rates.

Actually, I can't see anything because the red COVID-19 line spans
only about 3 vertical blue lines. However, the graph does support
your contentions. If you use a magnifying glass to look at the last
vertical blue line (total deaths), where the red line (COVID-19
deaths) hides the blue lines, you might notice that the very last
vertical blue line is well below the expected value if total death
remain unchanged. This could be due to your conspiracy theory, or it
could be due to the usual reporting delays. Notice that the graph is
dated April 10, about 5 weeks ago. Or, all this could be due to CDC
fudging the numbers, interference by the states in reporting COVID-19
fatalities, government meddling, etc. I mentioned a few of these in
one of my other postings in this thread. There's plenty of recent
data available that might be used to demonstrate your conspiracy
theory that doesn't have the important numbers crunched into a tiny
part of the graph. Could you provide something that doesn't require a
magnifier to visualize?

Incidentally, a good question to ask is why did the CDC 5 years of
historical data on a graph where the only area of interest might be
the last few months? Also, why did they use blue vertical bars when a
simple line following the peaks would have been much easier to read?
Probably another conspiracy to hide the "truth" from the GUM (great
unwashed masses).

>But you see NO rise in the total death rates.

Sigh. I guess I have to expand the graph a little. See:
<http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/crud/CDC-NCHS-Mortality-Rate-Expanded.jpg>
That's an expanded view of the most recent part of the graph. Sorry
about the change in colors. I'll explain if anyone really cares.
Notice that the most recent vertical bar is April 3. Connecting the
dots between the peaks of the vertical lines shows a definite decrease
in overall deaths, which doesn't exactly support your conspiracy
theory. If COVID-19 added to the "normal" death toll, then I would
expect the vertical lines to be much higher. If the total deaths were
unchanged, as you contend, I would expect the vertical lines to be in
line with the rest of the previous vertical lines, which they are not.
If the CDC screwed up, and subtracted COVID-19 deaths from the total,
I would expect something similar to what I'm seeing.

Anyway, the graph is garbage and nearly useless. Please find a
different graph, preferably from an independent organization that is
not directly influenced by the Trump administration, and that shows
the total deaths to be constant. I'm patient and will wait for your
numbers.

If you can't find anything, or trust the CDC, try the graph on this
page:
<https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm>
<https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard>
On the dashboard select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and
click "Update Dashboard".

>Why is this? Because the Federal Government gives a $37,000 subsidy
>for each reported covid-19 death reported.

$37,000 per patient won't even begin to cover the cost of an uninsured
hospital fatality after a few days in ICU on a respirator. Even with
prices fixed by Medicare, the cost to the hospital will be much more.

Also, please fix your one and only useful number:
<https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/>
Q: Are hospitals inflating the number of COVID-19 cases
and deaths so they can be paid more?
A: Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates
for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no
evidence of fraudulent reporting.

Incidentally, in 2018, the CDC reported that there were 2.8 million
deaths in the US from all causes or:
2.8 million / 365 = 7,700 deaths per day
<https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm>
So far, the US has had 98,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 starting
on approximately Mar 18 according to the JHU dashboard.
<https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html>
Today is May 25 which is 69 days since the counting started. So far,
the increase has been roughly linear, so that's an average of:
98,000 / 69 = 1,420 deaths per day
or:
1,420 * 365 = 518,000 deaths (projected) per year
if things remain unchanged. If all the COVID-19 deaths were unique
and not due data manipulation, I would expect to see an average
increase of:
518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19%
in the total death rate by Mar 2021. Sadly, it might come to that if
things remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the deaths from COVID-19 will be
barely visible above the normal death count (as in the CDC graph I
cited above).

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Mon, 25 May 2020 06:44:10 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
wrote:

>That is the problem with plastic, it has a definite shortish life and
>dropping a plastic tub full of bicycle bits can usually result in
>sweeping up plastic bits with the parts.

I don't think this problem was totally the fault of the plastic. My
guess(tm) is the design of the handle and the age of the box were
contributory.

It's a Fenwick 1080 fishing tackle box:
<https://www.ebay.com/itm/324176783055>
The handle broke in this manner.
<http://www.learnbydestroying.com/jeffl/crud/Fenwick%201080%20handle.jpg>

The box was not overloaded. I'm not certain of the age, but my guess
is at least 40 years old.

Notice that the design of the swivel pin projecting from the handle.
The conical taper is used to force the handle against the mating holes
in the cover. It's clever, but has a rather nasty stress riser due to
the lack of a chamfer. If the handle slides sideways for any reason,
excess strain is placed on the conical pin. A reinforcing pin through
each conical swivel pin might have helped. I'll probably patch it
together with a steel shaft in place of the two conical pins.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 12:51:52 AM UTC-5, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>
> Incidentally, in 2018, the CDC reported that there were 2.8 million
> deaths in the US from all causes or:
> 2.8 million / 365 = 7,700 deaths per day
> <https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm>
> So far, the US has had 98,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19 starting
> on approximately Mar 18 according to the JHU dashboard.
> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html>
> Today is May 25 which is 69 days since the counting started. So far,
> the increase has been roughly linear, so that's an average of:
> 98,000 / 69 = 1,420 deaths per day
> or:
> 1,420 * 365 = 518,000 deaths (projected) per year
> if things remain unchanged. If all the COVID-19 deaths were unique
> and not due data manipulation, I would expect to see an average
> increase of:
> 518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19%
> in the total death rate by Mar 2021. Sadly, it might come to that if
> things remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the deaths from COVID-19 will be
> barely visible above the normal death count (as in the CDC graph I
> cited above).
>
>
> --
> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com

Concerning your statement "increase of: 518,000 / 2,800,000 = 19% in the total death rate by Mar 2021." I doubt that will occur due to the behavior change caused by Covid-19. Half the country or more is NOT commuting to work each day. So traffic deaths will be far less this year. Google says 1.25 million people, 3287 per day, die from auto accidents each year. The 1420 people dying each day from Covid-19 is actually causing a reduction in overall death because many of the 3287 auto deaths each day do not occur. And the change in behavior with social distancing is causing people to not met and congregate. So less likely for people to kill each other when they meet. Another positive. Suicides are likely higher. But nine months from now births will likely be much higher due to the forced co-habitation. And flu and other transmittable diseases may be less this year due to the social distancing. Lot of negatives with Covid-19, but there are a few positives too.

[Rolf Mantel]

Am 25.05.2020 um 23:56 schrieb Andre Jute:
> Why is it so hard for you guys to admit that Tom is right? What that
> graph shows is a lower than normal death rate (the blue vertical
> lines, which are summed individual fatalities, a count in which we
> can have near perfect confidence), with a substitution of the
> presumptive causes (the red line which is a percentage, in which we
> can by the admissions of the people who concocted it have very
> moderate confidence).

It's quite easy for me to admit that as of April 10, there was no
massive "death by Covid" problem in the USA yet.
We have seen a very similar pattern in Europe:
* Due to lockdown, the total fatality rate came down by about 5% at the
time the Covid victims lay in hospital but were not dying yet.
* Due to the lockdown, the severity of the Influenza season was less
severe than the three seasons before.

One difference to Europe is that in USA, there were massively lacking
capacities for Corona testing, so mayn early Corona victims were dying
of Corona symptoms without being diagnosed for Corona.

> Read the graph qua graph, not through the filter of what you think
> you know, and what Tom says makes perfect sense, including the
> fiscally-inspired virus body-count inflation he mentions.

This graph is giving meaningful information as of April 10, just before
the shit hit the pan. Tom prefers not to look at the continuation data
from late April or May because this would destroy his beliefs.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Mon, 25 May 2020 22:51:44 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
wrote:

>If you can't find anything, or trust the CDC, try the graph on this
>page:
><https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm>
><https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard>
>On the dashboard select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and
>click "Update Dashboard".

More graphs:

CDC Observed and Excess Deaths:
<https://public.tableau.com/profile/benjamin.du#!/vizhome/CDCObservedandExcessDeaths/ObservedandExcessDeaths>
55,549 - 66,012 Excess Deaths since Feb.
For California, it's:
1,324 - 3,345 Excess Deaths sinc Feb.

US Excess Deaths and COVID-19 Deaths:
<https://public.tableau.com/profile/allen.perry#!/vizhome/USExcessDeathsandUSCOVID-19Deaths/Sheet1>

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Nothing in your mind makes sense Jay, push back away from the bar and call an Uber to take you home.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

I suppose there's no point in discussing it. The deaths from flu, pneumonia, and other reasons not listed are directly from death certificates. The blue vertical lines are nothing more than the additive of the total deaths that week.

But you may go about your day thinking that it will come in the future and not when they occur. Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

As Jay wanted to argue about, suicide rates are way up. In the US, suicide is almost the same rate as death by car wreck (and is often a form of suicide). I mentioned that before - no doubt car wrecks are down (but I'd warrant a whole lot less than you might think since the cars that are on the more open roads are driving at incredible speeds.) But slamming the door to peoples futures as this has done has very, very serious consequences.

https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/suicide/index.html

Unfortunately that doesn't show short term growth but psychiatrists are saying that a doubling of the rate is not unexpected.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Rolf, quite the opposite was occurring, because there weren't testing kits available very often the illness was diagnosed on the weight of symptoms only. X-ray of the chest of a person with pneumonia and covid-19 are almost identical but with covid-19 being the disease du jour it could be improperly diagnosed. Putting a person on a ventilator is not a lightly done thing because of so few people put on a ventilator survive.

Also one of the treatments for pneumonia is cutting your chest open to drain pus formed from the bacterial infection out. Rather than pus a covid-19 patient has swelling which inhibits air passage into the lungs. If you don't drain a pneumonia victim he stands a very high chance of dying. And with a large number of people dying in a short period of time they don't have the capacity for a post-mortem which would properly identify CoD.

I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows very little about.

First he quite rightly said that a mask wouldn't prevent ingress or egress of a virus which is quite right and which any first year med student is supposed to know. Then he reversed himself that all should use masks and social distancing - again anyone that knows anything about viruses would know that can accomplish nothing. Or I should say that distancing usually works but the distances have to be much larger than they are ordering.

But coming from Fauci, suddenly it is like the brains on a large percentage of doctors turned off and they started recommending masks and social distancing.

Anyone that has observed the growth curve of diseases knows that you can have a linear growth curve or a non-linear growth curve which is dependent upon the method of contagion. Covid-19 has continuously be mischaracterized as being spread by touching surfaces. This has always been an unlikely form of transmission of viruses because of their size they tend to bury in the pores of surfaces and so are difficult to pick up on the next hand.

Instead, because of a linear growth curve it is obviously spread via droplets of exhaled breath containing the virus. This is a difficult method of transmission IN THE OPEN AIR. So what did they do? Tell people to stay at home and had everyone enclosing themselves in areas where the air can become saturated with the virus. Nursing homes and retirement communities in particular would be expected to be the hardest hit and indeed they were. A symptomless disease and no rapid method of testing makes it a given.

Covid-19 symptoms are so generalized that it can literally look like anything without an actual test kit (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fsymptoms.html)

The testing method used in Europe was VERY slow - it was to incubate a sample over a week until there were enough of the corona virus to identify under a microscope. This also meant that the technician must recognize covid-19 from any one of dozens of corona viruses.

We could question whether deaths were correctly identified and that could go either way. But as I said, the disease du jour almost always is used as an excuse.

The outstanding character of that chart is that pneumonia deaths remained constant. Flu deaths where recognized remained constant and covid-19 deaths shot up but total deaths did not. And this is what epidemiologists in the field were saying all along - the people who were victimized by this disease were those that would have died one way or another. They just had another cause of death marked on the death certificate.

While any death is a loss, you do not solve anything but taking improper steps and that is precisely what the state governors particularly in Democrat run states did. Practice fascism rather than medically sound judgement.

[Rolf Mantel]

The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes
all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm a bit:
In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida
or DC even weaker.
But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to
15,000 at the 17-18 Flu.
You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy
where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess
reached 300% over normal.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Tue, 26 May 2020 07:43:48 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:

>As Jay wanted to argue about, suicide rates are way up.
>In the US, suicide is almost the same rate as death by
>car wreck (and is often a form of suicide). I mentioned
>that before - no doubt car wrecks are down (but I'd
>warrant a whole lot less than you might think since
>the cars that are on the more open roads are driving
>at incredible speeds.) But slamming the door to peoples
>futures as this has done has very, very serious consequences.
>
>https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/suicide/index.html

Just one tiny little problem. The few numbers on the above
"FactSheet" are from 1999 through 2016. Presumably, we didn't have a
COVID-19 problem four years ago. I'll leave it to you to find some
current numbers and trends. You could use the practice.

Well, I couldn't resist. See the graph at:
<https://afsp.org/suicide-statistics/>
which is current to Jan 2018. So, in 9 years, the suicide rate went
from 11.8 to 14.2/100,000 population which equals 0.012% to 0.014% for
an increase of 0.002% in 9 years. It's odd that the graph would start
in 2009 because I would expect a substantial increase in suicides
during the 2008 stock market collapse.

>Unfortunately that doesn't show short term growth but
>psychiatrists are saying that a doubling of the rate is
>not unexpected.

Which psychiatrists published in which tabloids? Doubling the rate
over what baseline? You might actually be correct but it's difficult
to tell from your "proof" which more closely resembles an assertion.
There are psychiatrists who seek media attention. Perhaps 5G cellular
causes suicides? These daze, the only way to get media attention is
to make outrageous or "thought provoking" statements. Mundane
statements based on research and statistical probability don't seem to
qualify.

No bicycles were mentioned or harmed in the manufacture of this
article.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:

>I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them
>want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci
>of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows
>very little about.

Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC.
NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has
been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I
presume qualifies as experience:
<https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio>
<https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director>
<https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history>

Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified
to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:37:24 +0200, Rolf Mantel
<ne...@hartig-mantel.de> wrote:

>The data on excess mortality has the very nice advantage that it removes
>all wrong diagnosis from the game. Please, play with
>https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm a bit:
>In California, COVID-19 has been similar to the 17-18 Flu, in Florida
>or DC even weaker.
>But in the US overall, the COVID-19 excess is around 70,000 compared to
>15,000 at the 17-18 Flu.
>You better not look at New York State, Massachusets, or even New Jeresy
>where the excess was 150% over normal or New York City where the excess
>reached 300% over normal.

Look again. NYC was about 600% above normal.
At the same time, NY State was about 125% above normal.

New York seem to be the worst. Go thee unto the aforementioned URL.
Select a Dashboard -> Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
-> Update Dashboard
Select Jurisdiction -> New York
The excess deaths are in dark blue. Drag the mouse over the peak and
it will show about 125% excess deaths.

However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from
the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims:
"Data for New York excludes New York City"
So NYC is tabulated separately.
Select a Dashboard -> Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
-> Update Dashboard
Select Jurisdiction -> New York City
Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at
596.7% to 649.5%.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Rolf - with that site they play a dirty little trick. First, those are not "excess deaths" but "deaths". But if you go to the "excess deaths without Covid-19" and hit the "update dashboard" They lower the chart but not the numbers on the chart; giving you the idea that there are less deaths except you can tell since the chart is identical but just on a different scale. If you go look at the "excess deaths" bumps the actual numbers are exactly the same as "all excess deaths".

There is another idiot thing they've done - they are using "predicted deaths" as a baseline. Predictions are all well and good but you have to be extremely careful that the predictions do not distort reality and that is what has been going on.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Excuse me Jeff but again you are avoiding reality. This was the period of the Obama great recession. During this time people could at least find temp work whereas with this lockdown they have no recourse but to spend their savings.

This is why we're have a violent and immediate rise in suicides. In the Trump economy it appeared there was no end and people did not save but spent on the things that they were missing out on during Obama - new cars and buying homes.

This is NOT a comedy play. This is people's lives and I will say again - a shut down was exactly the wrong thing to do. Masks do NOTHING. Social distancing in the outdoors is unnecessary and indoors it accomplishes nothing.

As I showed in the other references there was no measurable increase in the death rates. Only the names were changed to protect the innocent - as it were.

What do you suppose is going to happen with the next pandemic? Are you ready to have this entire country out of work forever?

[Frank Krygowski]

I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers
participating in the big hoax.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:46:36 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
>
> >I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them
> >want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci
> >of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows
> >very little about.
>
> Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy
> and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC.
> NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has
> been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I
> presume qualifies as experience:
> <https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio>
> <https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director>
> <https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history>
>
> Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified
> to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

There is a place for those who sit around, think and read papers. I do not deny Fauci that much. But he is not working in the real world as many other epidemiologists are and they often interview them on FOX and they ALL say what I've been saying. There isn't much you can do about a pandemic with a linear growth rate.

[John B.]

And how would you know, Tommy? After all you didn't know enough to
graduate from high school and here you are, nearly 60 years later and
what have you done? Still living in your mother's house, your wife
left you, you apparently never held a job for any length of time, you
have so little funds that you complain loudly about the cost of
groceries and apparently live on social security and unemployment
payments.

But you know, right Tommy, YOU KNOW!

Or are you simply delusional? After all, you fell off your bicycle and
bumped your head and it is said that Delusions are common psychotic
disorders and may be a feature of brain damage.
--
cheers,

John B.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:16:14 -0400, Frank Krygowski
<frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

>On 5/26/2020 2:11 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

>> (...)

>> However, that's for New York State with New York City excluded from
>> the data. The "Figure Notes" below the graph proclaims:
>> "Data for New York excludes New York City"
>> So NYC is tabulated separately.
>> Select a Dashboard -> Excess deaths with and without COVID-19
>> -> Update Dashboard
>> Select Jurisdiction -> New York City
>> Drag the mouse over the peak. The info box shows excess deaths at
>> 596.7% to 649.5%.

>I imagine Tom will say all those people who died were just volunteers
>participating in the big hoax.

Dull and boring. I have a better theory.

Many people that allegedly died actually turned into zombies, also
known as the living dead. When re-animated, these zombies then
staggered all over New York City, infecting everyone they touch. Their
appearance was sufficiently similar to COVID-19 symptoms that the
authorities included them in the COVID-19 excess death count. Of
course, nobody wanted to test them for COVID-19. When everyone was
conveniently looking the other direction, the zombies arose to stagger
around the city again and were again counted as a COVID-19 death. The
process was repeated several times until President Trump released the
national stockpile of emergency chainsaws. The reason it got so far
out of hand (600% excess deaths) was this delay in distributing
chainsaws, and finding a sufficient number of surgeons to operate
them.

How to kill a zombie with a chainsaw:
<https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=how+to+kill+a+zombie+with+a+chainsaw>


Bicycle related drivel:
Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic
crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh.
<http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html>

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Tue, 26 May 2020 15:18:53 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:

I see. You want to be advised on how to protect yourself from a viral
epidemic by an epidemiologist via Fox News. I don't think that's what
you intended to say, but that's what you wrote. You also seem to have
changed your position on Dr Fauci from:

"Dr. Fauci of the CDC(sic) who has continually acted an

expert at things he knows very little about."

to:

"I do not deny Fauci that much."

That's quite a change from calling the leading expert on infectious
diseases in the US an incompetent, to not denying him something you
didn't bother to specify. Of course, you're entitled to have an
opinion about anyone and anything, but I'm also entitled to discount
your opinion as rubbish. Anyway, kindly stabilize your opinion about
Dr Fauci. If it's critical, please provide the name of someone in the
US that is equally or more qualified to advise on how to handle a
pandemic. Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China
that are substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but
such experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our
president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one
candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is
bureau eliminated by the Trump administration:
"A top pandemic expert is leaving the Trump administration amid the
coronavirus crisis"
<https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5>


No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

[Tosspot]

The ultimate sacrifice. They should all be given the Presidential Medal
of Freedom.

100,000 and counting. Going to need a lot of scrap metal for those medals.

[Tosspot]

Well the president of course, he's a world renown stable genius, has a
natural ability at healthcare and surprises even himself on how much he
knows about COVID-19.

> Incidentally, I could probably provide some names in China that are
> substantially more qualified and equally experienced, but such
> experts would not be considered as candidates for advising our
> president, who knows more than any or all of them, Here's one
> candidate that might have qualified had he not resigned for having is
> bureau eliminated by the Trump administration: "A top pandemic expert
> is leaving the Trump administration amid the coronavirus crisis"
> <https://www.businessinsider.com/top-pandemic-expert-leaving-the-trump-administration-amid-coronavirus-2020-5>
>
> No bicycle related content this time. Sorry(tm).

Pendix drives and Bullitt cargo bikes, a match made in a very nice
place, like Tommys brain. Sort of warm, woolly, fluffy, with a soupçon
of bird song twittering in the trees.

[John B.]

On Wed, 27 May 2020 10:13:01 +0100, Tosspot <frank...@gmail.com>
wrote:

At May 27, 2020, 03:41 GMT it was 100,572 deaths and 1,144,734 sick.
--
cheers,

John B.

[sms]

On 5/26/2020 10:46 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Tue, 26 May 2020 08:30:38 -0700 (PDT), cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
>
>> I have a very low respect for doctors because so few of them
>> want to be competent. Top of the list in that category is Dr. Fauci
>> of the CDC who has continually acted an expert at things he knows
>> very little about.
>
> Dr Fauci has been director of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy
> and Infectious Diseases) since 1984. He does NOT work for the CDC.
> NIAID is part of the NIH (National Institute of Health). He's has
> been involved with controlling several previous epidemics, which I
> presume qualifies as experience:
> <https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio>
> <https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director>
> <https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/niaid-history>
>
> Can you provide the name of someone in the US who is better qualified
> to discuss pandemics than Dr Fauci?

That would be Tom.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

The leading expert? Jeff, that is about the most foolish thing that you could say. Fauci is NOT an expert. Sitting around in hallowed halls of government does NOT make you an expert. The epidemiologists in the field say the opposite and that you like some sort of moron deny that they know anything for the simple reason that they are interviewed on FOX shows that you are nothing more than some stupid biased punk.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 8:28:14 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
> In today's news:
>
> https://cyclingindustry.news/third-of-people-could-ditch-cars-in-favour-of-cycling-or-walking-post-covid-19-crisis-finds-cycling-uk/
>
> Which could happen, But it won't.
>
> Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
> Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
> that may be.
> --
> Andrew Muzi
> <www.yellowjersey.org/>
> Open every day since 1 April, 1971

https://vivomix.com/2020/05/08/dr-anthony-fauci-accused-of-fraud-by-judy-mikovits-fact-check/

While there are many ifs, ands and buts, the clearly substantiated claims that Fauci and the CDC was profiting on supposed "cures" that were not properly tested is not open to argument.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html#!

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/joseph-mercola/fauci-backpedals-on-vitamin-c-and-d-recommendations/ Fauci first touts Vitamin C and D theropy and then when Trump suggests it due to hospital evidence that it helps he reverses his own statements. What else is new? Oh, that's right some SOB posting on a bicycle group tells us that Trump doesn't know what he is talking about and that Fauci who has sat on his butt for 37 years now is the world's leading expert.

Let's see the results of your elections along with Cruella Pelosi.

[Frank Krygowski]

Your homework, Tom:

!) Find or assemble a CV for Dr. Anthony Fauci. I say that because you
obviously know very, very little about him.

2) Find or assemble a CV for the guy you allude to whom Faux News
managed to dig up.

Analyze and compare those to prove to us that your guy with his
predictable complaints is more qualified than Fauci.

We'll even give bonus points for a little more work:

3) Give us your own CV. Show us why we should listen to your opinions on
epidemiology... and history, genetics, theology, ballistics, human
anatomy, politics, engineering, medicine, sociology, geology,
meteorology, technology, etc. You know - all the other things about
which you, as a high school dropout, claim to be much smarter than
hundreds of trained, experienced, and recognized experts.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[AMuzi]

Fauci is probably a successful agency administrator and
political survivor who knows something but surely not
everything. Dr John Ionnidis who's no slouch in the area has
different opinions but gets no media traction:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/28/coronavirus-shutdown-skeptics-challenge-establishm/

[AMuzi]

On 5/27/2020 11:29 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:

Further to my last reply, I am not an expert. I do not work
in relevant fields nor read much beyond general coverage and
Science News.

However, confidence in CDC (and most Governors) is lacking
out here among the population of punished innocents:

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-where-is-the-media

I understand that government employees relaxing at home with
full pay and retirees have a much less urgent interest than
people running out of resources right now.

[jbeattie]

Knows something? Yikes. That's like saying Patton knew something about war. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio I think what you're saying is that his opinion could still be wrong, which is true. Qualified experts can disagree, and the disagreement often results from different data, assumptions, models and experience, and even if the assumptions or models align, then you get differences based on risk tolerance.

The usual approach is to do a case/control study of some sort or clinical trial. We could have a no-lock-down state to see how that works, but I doubt any governor would accept the fall-out. Plus, you would have to make sure that people didn't voluntarily lock-down. It would be tough to control, and I don't think Sweden is enough like the US to be a good control. Personally, I don't care if a lot of people die, so long as I can get my hair cut -- and the people who die are not me and my friends. I can tolerate a lot of risk to other people who I don't know.

-- Jay Beattie.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Very unfortunately Science News has turned into a garbage pit of political correctness that spouts pages of absolute crap that is entirely in disagreement with things such as the National Meteorological Department, The animal census and virtually everything.

We have them "reporting" that Svalberg was ice free this winter when the levels, extent and thickness were at record levels. The extent and thickness of the arctic ice sheet are also above normal and they will still publish pictures from 5 or so years ago when the ice was near record levels but unusual winds had blown the ice about a mile offshore making for dramatic pictures of "global warming".

I have had a long term subscription to Science News but now that over half of the articles appear to be written by someone who is attempting to score political points I will let it lapse. Even Science no longer reports science.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off for no reasons whatsoever.

Why were schools closed down when children under 12 were unaffected by the virus and there is no record of them transmitting covid-19 to other people? Why were jobs closed down when only 1% of people under 50 contracted the disease and very ew died from it? When these same people have a 100 times more chance of dying in a car wreck?

I know that you and the others here are unwilling to believe the actual "excessive deaths" charts from the CDC but that is because you don't have any financial worries. Just the sport of people to command those that do around.

[AMuzi]

I have no animus toward Dr Fauci. There just aren't enough
Italians in the world.

But he is not omniscient. Give him the benefit of the doubt
and call it well intentioned, but his various positions (no
mask, maybe mask, mandatory mask etc etc) inspire no
confidence. His famous statements "Americans need not worry"
, "No worse than the flu" and so on are endlessly repeated
and need no further comment from me.

And we do indeed have real world real time policy
comparisons. Mr DeSantis rigorously and immediately
protected old age homes, rehab centers, assisted living
facilities and retirement communities ending with a small
fraction of NY deaths despite a 2 million larger populace
and without utterly destroying income, livelihood, savings
and hope of working citizens and small business owners.

In January, Tom Cotton was saying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3LAV-Rgxk

As late as 8 March Dr Fauci wasn't.

Again, I'm no expert and I'm not condemning anyone but
humans are a widely variable lot and none are perfect.

(Me? hardly. I didn't go with Sen Cotton's warning either)

[Frank Krygowski]

On 5/27/2020 1:43 PM, cycl...@yahoo.com wrote:
>
> Only someone in a financially secure position could ignore the pain and suffering of people whose source of income has been cut off...

Only a person who has no friend or family infected or seriously at risk
could ignore the pain and suffering of those with COVID.

> ... for no reasons whatsoever.

That's the view of a person with zero qualifications, despite strong
disagreement from qualified experts in every country worldwide.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[AMuzi]

> Very unfortunately Science News has turned into a garbage pit of political correctness that spouts pages of absolute crap that is entirely in disagreement with things such as the National Meteorological Department, The animal census and virtually everything.
>
> We have them "reporting" that Svalberg was ice free this winter when the levels, extent and thickness were at record levels. The extent and thickness of the arctic ice sheet are also above normal and they will still publish pictures from 5 or so years ago when the ice was near record levels but unusual winds had blown the ice about a mile offshore making for dramatic pictures of "global warming".
>
> I have had a long term subscription to Science News but now that over half of the articles appear to be written by someone who is attempting to score political points I will let it lapse. Even Science no longer reports science.
>

You're right but what else is there for the general reader?
NYT Tuesday is worse.

[AMuzi]

It is not heartless to observe that there is no correlation
between punishment and mortality rates.

There are definitely fatal policy errors (and Mr Cuomo made
more than a few of them. He's not alone.) but destroying
lives, income, businesses, wealth, opportunity and hope has
not meant less death, just more suffering among the living.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
wrote:

>Bicycle related drivel:
>Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic
>crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh.
><http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html>

Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo
album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the
above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and
took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I
discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have
backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry.

[cycl...@yahoo.com]

On a clear day you couldn't see beyond you nose.

Before ANY of the shouting is done, the CDC has already reduced the numbers of covid-19 deaths by 25%. This isn't going to stop here since other CDC studies show that the chances of someone that has covid-19 AND SYNPTOMS (only 25% of those with the disease) have a 0.05% chance of dying. It is a pity that you mind doesn't work anymore. All you have left is bitter hatred for those that point it out.

[AMuzi]

On 5/27/2020 3:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Tue, 26 May 2020 18:56:22 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
> wrote:
>> Bicycle related drivel:
>> Water bottle fail. I grabbed it, and the now brittle plastic
>> crumbled. My guess(tm) is it was 30 years old. Argh.
>> <http://www.11junk.com/jeffl/pics/bicycles/slides/water%20bottle%20fail.html>
>
> Blank page. So much for bibycle related content. I updated my photo
> album software from Jalbum 20.0 to the latest 20.1. I also added the
> above photo. The new and improved release did some odd things and
> took far too long to coplete the upload. The next morning, I
> discovered that all the photos on my web pile were gone. I have
> backups, but until I put the mess back together, no photos. Sorry.
>
>

I saw it yesterday. Typical outgassed polymer failure.

[John B.]

And at May 27, 2020, 22:42 GMT it was 1,743,898 cases and 102,005
deaths.

Come on you guys. With only a tiny bit more effort you can hit the big
2,000,000 mark. I know that you can do it if you just try.
--
cheers,

John B.

[jbeattie]

It's a pity that you don't understand disease prevention versus post hoc death statistics. Restrictions were imposed to prevent the spread of a disease with bad track record. Remember Wuhan, burial pits in Iran, Italy?

The only way you could say that the restrictions were unnecessary is: (1) define an acceptable number of sick and/or dead, and (2) know in advance the number of sick and/or dead if no restrictions were imposed, and then compare the two numbers. If we know that 250,000 will die if no restrictions are imposed, and we're O.K. with that number, then the restrictions are/were unnecessary. If we think 250,000 is too many (or whatever the best projection showed), then we impose restrictions, and try to tailor them to do the most good and least harm.

You can't impose restrictions and then claim that they were unnecessary because they worked.

-- Jay Beattie.