History repeats itself: starving in the cycle biz
Andre Jute
Books, 1977:
***
"The first American car was sold to an American on April Fool's Day,
1898. It was a Winton.
"Alexander Winton was a tough little Scots immigrant who first made a
name for himself as a bicycle racer, then as a bicycle manufacturer in
Cleveland, Ohio. But the bicycle business petered out during the 1893
depression. 'It was then,' Winton said later, 'that we decided we
might as well starve in the automobile business.'"
***
History does repeat itself!
Andre Jute
Visit Jute on Thisthatandtheother
http://www.audio-talk.co.uk/fiultra/OTHER%20MATTERS%20ARISING.html
Nate Nagel
I would have figured that the bike business would have picked up, what
with everyone being more concerned than ever with fuel prices and
transportation costs. Is that not the case? (honest question; when it
comes to bikes I am strictly a consumer, and am not particularly close
to anyone in the bike business.)
For my own part, I've been buying more bike related stuff lately as I
have become more and more serious about using a bike as transportation,
but in my case it is more a desire for fitness combined with a strong
dislike of exercise only for its own sake than financial considerations.
(I've been pleased to discover that I still enjoy riding, which is good.)
nate
--
replace "roosters" with "cox" to reply.
http://members.cox.net/njnagel
Andre Jute
> Andre Jute wrote:
> > From "Vintage and Classic Cars" by Ralph Stein, published by Bantam
> > Books, 1977:
>
> > ***
>
> > "The first American car was sold to an American on April Fool's Day,
> > 1898. It was a Winton.
>
> > "Alexander Winton was a tough little Scots immigrant who first made a
> > name for himself as a bicycle racer, then as a bicycle manufacturer in
> > Cleveland, Ohio. But the bicycle business petered out during the 1893
> > depression. 'It was then,' Winton said later, 'that we decided we
> > might as well starve in the automobile business.'"
>
> > ***
>
> > History does repeat itself!
>
> > Andre Jute
> > Visit Jute on Thisthatandtheother
> > http://www.audio-talk.co.uk/fiultra/OTHER%20MATTERS%20ARISING.html
>
> I would have figured that the bike business would have picked up, what
> with everyone being more concerned than ever with fuel prices and
> transportation costs. Is that not the case? (honest question; when it
> comes to bikes I am strictly a consumer, and am not particularly close
> to anyone in the bike business.)
I wouldn't expect bike sales to pick up in the States or any other
place that doesn't have a cycling culture.
In places where there is a cycling culture, I expect no or very little
difference in bike sales; a fall in discretionary, second, weekend
bikes will offset extra bikes sold to those who previously aspired to
a motorcar and now have decided the bike is the most economical option
after all.
In places without a cycling culture, where the bicycle as transport
rather than a lifestyle choice is regarded as a poverty option, I
think the depression will have to last a long time and bite very deep
before the bicycle loses that stigma and sales pick up. Since in
places like the States the bicycle is a yuppie lifestyle choice, in
hard times I would expect sales to stop growing or even to fall in the
short term and to fall, possibly drastically, in the medium and long
term.
Andre Jute
Economics and other sophistries, definitely not a career for a fellow
as unfailingly cheerful as me
AMuzi
>>> From "Vintage and Classic Cars" by Ralph Stein, published by Bantam
>>> Books, 1977:
>>> ***
>>> "The first American car was sold to an American on April Fool's Day,
>>> 1898. It was a Winton.
>>> "Alexander Winton was a tough little Scots immigrant who first made a
>>> name for himself as a bicycle racer, then as a bicycle manufacturer in
>>> Cleveland, Ohio. But the bicycle business petered out during the 1893
>>> depression. 'It was then,' Winton said later, 'that we decided we
>>> might as well starve in the automobile business.'"
>>> ***
>>> History does repeat itself!
>>> Andre Jute
>>> Visit Jute on Thisthatandtheother
>>> http://www.audio-talk.co.uk/fiultra/OTHER%20MATTERS%20ARISING.html
> Nate Nagel <njna...@roosters.net> wrote:
>> I would have figured that the bike business would have picked up, what
>> with everyone being more concerned than ever with fuel prices and
>> transportation costs. Is that not the case? (honest question; when it
>> comes to bikes I am strictly a consumer, and am not particularly close
>> to anyone in the bike business.)
Andre Jute wrote:
> I wouldn't expect bike sales to pick up in the States or any other
> place that doesn't have a cycling culture.
> In places where there is a cycling culture, I expect no or very little
> difference in bike sales; a fall in discretionary, second, weekend
> bikes will offset extra bikes sold to those who previously aspired to
> a motorcar and now have decided the bike is the most economical option
> after all.
> In places without a cycling culture, where the bicycle as transport
> rather than a lifestyle choice is regarded as a poverty option, I
> think the depression will have to last a long time and bite very deep
> before the bicycle loses that stigma and sales pick up. Since in
> places like the States the bicycle is a yuppie lifestyle choice, in
> hard times I would expect sales to stop growing or even to fall in the
> short term and to fall, possibly drastically, in the medium and long
> term.
> Andre Jute
> Economics and other sophistries, definitely not a career for a fellow
> as unfailingly cheerful as me
I often note to do-gooders flogging their latest 'program'
that people who ride, ride; nothing will stop them. People
who don't ride, won't; nothing will make them.
I think the joys of cycling stand on their own merit with
neither coercion nor bribery. YMMV
--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971
Neil Brooks
Good point.
Another possibility is this: those /with/ resources may become
cyclists or increase their use of a bike/associated purchases.
At the same time, though, those hard hit by the economy may cut back
on purchases -- making do the best they can with what they have and
deferring purchases for as long as possible.
Net result: flat sales.
Dan O
> On Sep 6, 11:41 am, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>
>
>
<big snip>
>
> > ... people who ride, ride; nothing will stop them. People
> > who don't ride, won't; nothing will make them.
>
> > I think the joys of cycling stand on their own merit with
> > neither coercion nor bribery. YMMV
>
> Good point.
>
> Another possibility is this: those /with/ resources may become
> cyclists or increase their use of a bike/associated purchases.
>
> At the same time, though, those hard hit by the economy may cut back
> on purchases -- making do the best they can with what they have and
> deferring purchases for as long as possible.
>
When I was driving to work and eating fast food all the time, any
amount of spending money that I would typically carry in my pocket was
gone very quickly.
Now that I eat my oatmeal and ride my bike every day, a twenty can
easily last me all week and maybe then some, and two bucks for coffee
has become a considerable expense.
Bill
the "Panic of 1893", a major economic depression in the U.S. In the
last days of the Benjamin Harrison administration, the Reading
Railroad went into receivership. This caused the failure of hundreds
of banks that were dependent on the Reading for business. The bank
failures in turn caused a stock market collapse, and European
investors pulled their funds out of the U.S, worsening the situation.
There was already an underlying agricultural depression in the West
and South. President Harrison didn't believe in taking any
governmental action to counter the economic downturn, believing it to
be part of the natural business cycle. (Hey, maybe he was right!)
Since bicycles were essentially a luxury item, they were one of the
first things that people stopped buying.
However, the economy had recovered enough by 1896 for the Dodge
Brothers, John and Horace, to enter into a partnership with Fred Evans
to manufacture the Evans and Dodge bicycle quite successfully in
Canada. It was a high-quality machine, the first mass-produced bike
with tapered roller bearings in the bottom bracket. The Dodge Bros.
made enough money by manufacturing the Evans and Dodge bike that they
were able to sell their share of the business a few years later and
use the money to establish their first machine shop in Detroit. Then
around 1905 or so they started manufacturing parts for Henry Ford. By
1914 they had become weary of working for Ford and decided to build
their own car.
Andre Jute
Thanks for another example of history repeating itself. I wonder how
many other automobile makers were in the bicycle business before they
became automobile manufacturers. -AJ
Andre Jute
So you expect a flat market for bicycles? Or at least for the
underlying trend of gradual change, in whichever direction it was
running already (very slowly upwards?), to continue?
Change is in most cases brought about by people in the middle between
the extremes. Where there is the sort of on-off switch you describe
with no middle position, change is generally impossible except by
application of forceful measures. If you're right, and I for one am
not arguing that you're wrong, the outlook in the US for the bicycle
as alternative transport, rather than as a niche entertainment for
masochists and eccentrics, does not look too rosy.
Andre Jute
A little, a very little thought will suffice -- John Maynard Keynes
Tom Kunich
news:c6d7c0f6-2563-4da7...@u16g2000pru.googlegroups.com...
>
> Thanks for another example of history repeating itself. I wonder how
> many other automobile makers were in the bicycle business before they
> became automobile manufacturers. -AJ
Need we mention that the Wright Brothers were building bicycles and hence
had the technical wherewithall to build the first proper airplane?
AMuzi
Just after leaving the Fed, Paul Volker was at a restaurant
when someone asked him about interest rates. He replied, "In
the future, interest rates..."
The room fell silent
"... will fluctuate."
I just do not know.
I do know that macro trends, in a country where the bulk of
bicycles (or "BSO" at any rate) are sold in big box stores,
affect my business little if at all. In 1981, when 1/6 of
bicycle stores closed their doors, we had a great year.
Andre Jute
> "Andre Jute" <fiult...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
It struck me, retroactively because I've only been a cyclist since
1992 and was keen on vintage cars for several times that long before
that, how many of the first American electric cars and steam cars and
even internal combustion cars were built on chasses of what must have
been bicycle tubing.
And, of course, into modern times Ferrari (and other Italian supercar
makers) went to Columbus to draw chassis-tubes for them.
Why, you could probably save 15 pounds by building a Lotus 7 type
spaceframe with double-butted tubes a la bicycle...
Andre Jute
"The first American car was sold to an American on April Fool's Day,
1898." -- Ralph Stein in "Vintage and Classic Cars", Bantam Books,
1977
P. Chisholm
P. Chisholm
'Flat' is the new 'gain'...service is up, sales are down.
Peter Cole
I was impressed yesterday by the sheer number of cyclists out enjoying a
near perfect September day along the Charles River here in Boston. What
surprised me was the percentage of old bikes, tons of 70-80's vintage
road bikes. I had no idea there were still so many in circulation.
RonSonic
wrote:
Retail electronics service is up. Busiest summer of the century.
RonSonic
True, but there are decisions that fall one way or another.
Gym membership or evening rides on Bayshore?
--
Oh damn. There's that annoying blog. Again. http://dumbbikeblog.blogspot.com
AMuzi
"Retail electronics service" as in new knobs and tubes for
record players or selling cell phone service, apps & games?
RonSonic
Guitar and bass amps, synths, PAs, DJ gear, high end hifi pretty much anything
electronic that makes music come out that's cost effective to repair. Component
level repair mostly - increasingly board swaps depending on the product line,
costs and availability. No car stuff except McIntosh since we're a service
center for them. We refuse to be accessories to boom-carism. I'm mostly the
guitar / combo gear guy so I get everything from old point to point tube stuff
to surface mount mixed digital / analog synths and signal processors. Oh yeah,
knobs and tubes for record players, too.
We're slammed - 3-week waits, rush fees, the whole deal. Summers are usually
slow, back to school not so hot. Now, it's like the New Years rush all the time.
One guy has a TV sideline. He's buried.
I'd complain about the economy, but from my POV having people fixing high
quality older gear instead of just opening another container of
feature-enhanced, fashion-forward, disposable mediocrity from China is a good
thing. That isn't just a personal financial preference, it's sort of a general
bias.