CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

[Andre Jute]

On Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 5:59:50 PM UTC, Tom Kunich wrote:
>
> The bottom line is that this disease offers really less of a challenge than the common yearly flu.

There is a difference, in that it will more likely to kill you if you're old and a smoker, which is one reason why the Chinese have been so badly hit: they have 300 million men over 60 who are heavy smokers. Another difference is that an anti-COVID-19 shot is currently a year or more away.

Here the Irish health authorities are telling people with symptoms to self-isolate and call -- not visit -- their doctors. The authorities are in a "containment phase", trying not to have the facilities overrun with hypochondriacs demanding to be tested.

But, all the same, there is now a worse than geometric progression of *new confirmed cases* -- see https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/ under the heading "Updates": on consecutive days, from a base of 2 confirmed cases, 4 new confirmed cases and 7 new confirmed cases. For a country this size, 13 cases confirmed in only three days is already an epidemic.

Other good information and tips in convenient poster form:
Coronavirus COVID-19 The Facts: https://assets.gov.ie/70619/8d3c80a87fdc472d9ddb3edade2920b7.pdf
Protect yourself and others from getting sick : https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/hand-hygiene-poster.pdf

Andre Jute
Stay safe

[Tom Kunich]

My favorite thing is watching President Trump playing the Democrats like a harp. Initially the media and the Democrats were actually calling it "Trump's virus". So he finally pointed out that he imposed an immediate quarantine on people and products from certain areas of the world. That the Democrats and Obama allowed over 20,000 people to die from H1N1 before they did a thing.

Suddenly the Democrats are saying, "Well, corona virus isn't any big thing anyway and those quarantines are hurting businesses". And the media has suddenly turned neutral. Pretty funny.

[John B.]

The news today (quoting various international agencies)reports that:

[1] The Trump administration won't be able to meet its goal to have 1
million coronavirus tests available by the end of the week, senators
said.

[2] US spread continues, 37 new cases

[3] Princess cruise ship that has been linked to the virus and is
being held off the California coast and refused landing permission.

[4] skyrocketing prices online and pressure from regulators to enforce
price-gouging laws. Packs of hand sanitizer that usually sell for $10
were listed on online marketplaces for as much as $400.
eBay said it had been taking action to mitigate the inflated price of
masks listed on the site. The online marketplace was pulling listings
for face masks that exceeded $7.50 per mask about 10 times the usual
75 cents.

But our boy Tommie tells us that it is no different than the common
cold.
--
cheers,

John B.

[sms]

On 3/6/2020 4:41 PM, John B. wrote:

<snip>

> The news today (quoting various international agencies)reports that:
>
> [1] The Trump administration won't be able to meet its goal to have 1
> million coronavirus tests available by the end of the week, senators
> said.
>
> [2] US spread continues, 37 new cases
>
> [3] Princess cruise ship that has been linked to the virus and is
> being held off the California coast and refused landing permission.
>
> [4] skyrocketing prices online and pressure from regulators to enforce
> price-gouging laws. Packs of hand sanitizer that usually sell for $10
> were listed on online marketplaces for as much as $400.
> eBay said it had been taking action to mitigate the inflated price of
> masks listed on the site. The online marketplace was pulling listings
> for face masks that exceeded $7.50 per mask about 10 times the usual
> 75 cents.
>
> But our boy Tommie tells us that it is no different than the common
> cold.

It's serious enough that even the WHO has admonished Trump for lying.
Trump should agree to stop lying about this issue for at least the next
six months.
<https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/washington-dc-man-linked-to-community-spread-of-coronavirus-misinformation>.

[jbeattie]

It's serious enough that they're cancelling European classics! https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/coronavirus-team-doctors-request-cancellation-of-paris-nice-and-italian-races/ Not Paris-Nice! It's O.K. to cancel the UAE moonscape race, but not the classics.

-- Jay Beattie.

[John B.]

On Fri, 6 Mar 2020 17:04:22 -0800, sms <scharf...@geemail.com>
wrote:

But, if he stopped lying he'd have to stop talking :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

[pH]

The Sea Otter classic has been "delayed" here in the Monterey Bay area
and there's even talk of cancelling the Big Sur Marathon.

Gov. Newsome commanded a cruise liner to stay offshore off of SF (who's the
lawyer around here--can a Gov. do things like that legally?).

All this because of a handful of cases of this flu-like virus? There must
be something much more going on here than meets the eye, but I have no idea
what.

ph

[John B.]

I'm not a lawyer, but I did sail a boat into and out of various
countries and every country (that I've been in) has specific rules
that you must comply with and bringing a ship/boat into harbor with
sickness aboard is definitely not allowed. There is even a special
flag that a boat with sickness aboard is supposed to fly to warn
others to keep away.

>All this because of a handful of cases of this flu-like virus? There must
>be something much more going on here than meets the eye, but I have no idea
>what.
>
>ph

--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

On Fri, 6 Mar 2020 17:35:35 -0800 (PST), jbeattie <jbeat...@msn.com>
wrote:

And, I have read, that even the Fed is, or plans to, dropping
interest rates due to the virus :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Fri, 6 Mar 2020 03:55:24 -0800 (PST), Andre Jute
<fiul...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>There is a difference, in that it will more likely to kill
>you if you're old and a smoker, which is one reason why
>the Chinese have been so badly hit: they have 300 million
>men over 60 who are heavy smokers.

That could be a contributor, but not the only reason for the high
Oriental mortality rate. See:

"Coronavirus risk for Asians, Africans, Caucasians revealed"
<https://www.eturbonews.com/542533/coronavirus-risk-for-asians-africans-caucasians-revealed/>
East Asians, Japanese, and Han Chinese are the most likely
people to become severely sick by the coronavirus with a
chance of more than 90% when exposed. Europeans only rank
in the 50%, Africans in the 60% range, and considered
low to medium. It also makes a difference if one is a
smoker or non-smoker.

More detail:
"Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor
of Wuhan 2019-nCov"
<https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full>


--
Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

[Sepp Ruf]

sms wrote:
> On 3/6/2020 4:41 PM, John B. wrote:
>
> <snip>
>
>> The news today (quoting various international agencies)reports that:

Has this been debunked yet?
<https://yournews.com/2020/03/05/1487219/coronavirus-patient-zero-in-italy-was-pakistani-migrant-who-refused/>
Or did Italian officials really not understand they'd need to pay an
industrious Paki premium immigrant to stay in his house, and do nothing
instead of mixing salads for sale?

>> [4] skyrocketing prices online and pressure from regulators to enforce
>> price-gouging laws. Packs of hand sanitizer that usually sell for $10
>> were listed on online marketplaces for as much as $400.
>> eBay said it had been taking action to mitigate the inflated price of
>> masks listed on the site. The online marketplace was pulling listings
>> for face masks that exceeded $7.50 per mask about 10 times the usual
>> 75 cents.

Who has not suspected that ebay really does not understand supply and demand?

Commie European politicians are now demanding *rebates* from producers of
protective medical supplies. Good luck with that, comrades!

>> But our boy Tommie tells us that it is no different than the common
>> cold.

Our old man Johnny is misrepresenting our boy Tommie who was actually erring
about the Wuhan vs. the common flu.

> It's serious enough that even the WHO has admonished Trump for lying.
> Trump should agree to stop lying about this issue for at least the next
> six months.
> <https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/washington-dc-man-linked-to-community-spread-of-coronavirus-misinformation>

What's this, a left-coast mayor posting anti-Trump jokes in order to fake
business as usual? I'd guess it's like Chinese companies leaving the lights
on, running machines on idle to fake power consumption, and hence
production, to the CCP inspectors. But then I remember Hanlon's razor.

You really should be riding back to work, careful not to touch your face
with possibly Trump-virus contaminated gloves and plan for what lies ahead.
Of course, a Democrat cannot possible imagine less revenue, but he could try
to start teaching the unwashed staff from Ireland, and elsewhere, how to
really wash one's hands.
https://youtu.be/i4vCHM2c4X0?t=6m
("Dr. Hu" knows)

[AMuzi]

Bunch of dead Chinese is just background but now actual
Italians dying and Italy is devastated:
https://www.corriere.it/

No soccer, no cycling, no concerts/bars/restaurants and even
Mass during Lent.

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

[Andre Jute]

Thanks, Jeff. I posted that particular Chinese consideration of smoking to indicate how serious this could be. 3.4% fatalities among those who caught the virus in China is the last number I read; not likely to be accurate considering conditions in China, but the only number we have. If only a third of those heavy smokers over 60 are infected, and 3.4 per cent of them succumb, that's 3.4 million corpses to be incinerated or buried in a very short space of time. That's an incredible health hazard right there.

Andre Jute
Pandemics are all about the numbers. I don't fancy being a statistic.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 08:07:12 -0800 (PST), Andre Jute
<fiul...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>Thanks, Jeff.

Y're welcome.

>I posted that particular Chinese consideration of smoking to indicate how
>serious this could be. 3.4% fatalities among those who caught the virus in
>China is the last number I read; not likely to be accurate considering
>conditions in China, but the only number we have.

This might be worth a read:

The Coronavirus, by the Numbers
A mathematician who studies the spread of disease explains some of the
figures that keep popping up in coronavirus news.
<https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.html>

>If only a third of those heavy smokers over 60 are infected, and 3.4
>per cent of them succumb, that's 3.4 million corpses to be incinerated
>or buried in a very short space of time. That's an incredible health
>hazard right there.

Good point. I hadn't thought about the cremation problem.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cremation_rate#China>
China cremates more people each year than any other country,
reporting 4,534,000 cremations out of 9,348,453 deaths
(a 48.50% rate) in 2008.[2] The cremation rate was 45.6%
for 2014 according to Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs.
and
<http://www.china.org.cn/china/2015-04/04/content_35243460.htm>

If the aforementioned numbers are accurate, the 3.4 million additional
corpses almost doubles the current cremation rate from 48.5% to 85.9%.
That's a large increase, but assuming the facilities are not currently
running at capacity, I would guess(tm) that it could be done.

>Andre Jute
>Pandemics are all about the numbers. I don't fancy being a statistic.

It's ok to be a statistic, as long as your number appears in the
proper column.

[Tom Kunich]

On Friday, March 6, 2020 at 5:35:38 PM UTC-8, jbeattie wrote:

Elon Musk has access to the actual numbers. In the USA, the infection rates are pretty high (what do you expect from an airborne pathogen?) At this point the US has a LOT of people with compromised immune systems and respiratory problems because in the USA you can buy the best medical care in the world and live with conditions that would kill you elsewhere.

In the USA the death rate among actual proven Civid-19 infectees is .6%. In China where the population cannot live with respiratory problems for long the death rates are about .3%.

So when Trump said that the horror stories about Covid-19 were a hoax he was dead on. The media was claiming numbers from 2% to 6%.

Moreover, these numbers are strongly overstated because most people that have Covid-19 simply feel sick from 2 days to 2 weeks and are over it. They never go to a doctor for it and they are never tested to see what it was.

All over the USA people that have not been in contact with people known to have Covid-19 are popping up. This means that it is virtually in the entire population. So as Elon Musk says, worrying about this is just plain stupid.

[Tom Kunich]

China claims over 100,000 cases and 3,400 fatalities. IF they were understating the fatalities they would get reduced world health organization aid and also the aid that President Trump has offered them so they have NO reason to under report the numbers.

[Sepp Ruf]

AMuzi wrote:

> Bunch of dead Chinese is just background but now actual
> Italians dying and Italy is devastated:
> https://www.corriere.it/

If things get serious and you are still consuming the official news media,
you are deliberately stuck behind the curve.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

Exponential function is a b¡tch!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EShvD5MXYAM8cs2.png

> No soccer, no cycling, no concerts/bars/restaurants and even
> Mass during Lent.

Whole regions if Italy to be cut off starting at midnight local until April
3rd, at least.

Good night, and good luck!

[Andre Jute]

You need to work those numbers harder, Jeff. The 3.4m fatalities would be additional, on top of the the present load on the incinerators because non-infected people won't stop dying at their appointed time. Furthermore, the additional 3.4m will not spread over a year, like your numbers, but in a much shorter period, let's say over 3 mionths, at a rate of roughly 1.1m a month. Let's say that the normal rate of cremations is spread evenly over the year, then there are near enough 380,000 normal cremations per month. In each of those months, add 1.1m plus, and the now the load is four times that expected in a normal year.

>
> >Andre Jute
> >Pandemics are all about the numbers. I don't fancy being a statistic.
>
> It's ok to be a statistic, as long as your number appears in the
> proper column.

The problem with statistics is that your luck has, statistically, to run out sometime.

> --
> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
> 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
> Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
> Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

Andre Jute
Demographics are destiny

[Tom Kunich]

Question - does anyone bother to look for transmission chains of he common cold since the Rhino virus is also a corona virus? Do COLDS infect exponentially or are they self limiting since corona virus doesn't like warm humid weather that will come along in April and May?

Most people that have contracted the Covid-19 have NEVER been tested but are residents of Wuhan, China, and the doctors there are diagnosing with symptoms alone and the symptoms are almost identical to the common cold.

As it turns out, in the entire world only the very worst cases, something like 6,500 cases have been positively tested for Covid-19 and of that group they ALL had underlying respiratory problems and weakened immune systems. Most of these people did NOT die from the virus but by pneumonia triggered by the respiratory illness. Half of these people died from the pneumonia which is a bacterial disease.

The fear mongering that the media has been overjoyed to use is not appropriate and cases like this have natural limitations controlled by territorial limits and movement between these areas.

https://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-believes-coronavirus-panic-dumb-2935551

[news18]

On Sat, 07 Mar 2020 11:11:09 -0800, Tom Kunich wrote:


>
> Elon Musk has access to the actual numbers.

How so.

> In the USA, the infection
> rates are pretty high (what do you expect from an airborne pathogen?)

It isn't an airborne pathogen. it is a contact pathogen.
If it was airborne, then is would have just appeared throughout the
northern hemisphere in the way that fallout from Chernobyl & Fuksihima
spread.

In this country, they may take a day of two, but they are able to find
contact routes explaining each infection. There have been no mysterious
mana from heavern infections.

[news18]

On Sat, 07 Mar 2020 15:29:18 -0800, Tom Kunich wrote:

> On Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 3:00:13 PM UTC-8, Sepp Ruf wrote:
>> AMuzi wrote:
>>
>> > Bunch of dead Chinese is just background but now actual Italians
>> > dying and Italy is devastated: https://www.corriere.it/
>>
>> If things get serious and you are still consuming the official news
>> media, you are deliberately stuck behind the curve.
>>
>> https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
>>
>> Exponential function is a b¡tch!
>> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EShvD5MXYAM8cs2.png
>>
>> > No soccer, no cycling, no concerts/bars/restaurants and even Mass
>> > during Lent.
>>
>> Whole regions if Italy to be cut off starting at midnight local until
>> April 3rd, at least.
>>
>> Good night, and good luck!
>
> Question - does anyone bother to look for transmission chains of he
> common cold since the Rhino virus is also a corona virus?

The 'common cold/flu ' is endemic througout the glob. The strength of the
various strains waxes and wanes and yes they cn tract te spread of the
new variatns. This is what Austalias health authorities ue to decide
which strains will go into the various vaccines for 'this year flu '.
They do not always get it right. Modern global travel can ensure that
surprises occurr.

[news18]

Which explains why there is a major shortage of refrigerated containers
for exports in Australia at the moment. Hmm, I hope they do a very
thorough decontamination of them after using them for body storage.

[John B.]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 15:29:18 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
<cycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>On Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 3:00:13 PM UTC-8, Sepp Ruf wrote:
>> AMuzi wrote:
>>
>> > Bunch of dead Chinese is just background but now actual
>> > Italians dying and Italy is devastated:
>> > https://www.corriere.it/
>>
>> If things get serious and you are still consuming the official news media,
>> you are deliberately stuck behind the curve.
>>
>> https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
>>

>> Exponential function is a bĄtch!

>> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EShvD5MXYAM8cs2.png
>>
>> > No soccer, no cycling, no concerts/bars/restaurants and even
>> > Mass during Lent.
>>
>> Whole regions if Italy to be cut off starting at midnight local until April
>> 3rd, at least.
>>
>> Good night, and good luck!
>
>Question - does anyone bother to look for transmission chains of he common cold since the Rhino virus is also a corona virus? Do COLDS infect exponentially or are they self limiting since corona virus doesn't like warm humid weather that will come along in April and May?
>
>Most people that have contracted the Covid-19 have NEVER been tested but are residents of Wuhan, China, and the doctors there are diagnosing with symptoms alone and the symptoms are almost identical to the common cold.
>
>As it turns out, in the entire world only the very worst cases, something like 6,500 cases have been positively tested for Covid-19 and of that group they ALL had underlying respiratory problems and weakened immune systems. Most of these people did NOT die from the virus but by pneumonia triggered by the respiratory illness. Half of these people died from the pneumonia which is a bacterial disease.
>
>The fear mongering that the media has been overjoyed to use is not appropriate and cases like this have natural limitations controlled by territorial limits and movement between these areas.
>
>https://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-believes-coronavirus-panic-dumb-2935551

Well, pick your pundit and you can probably show "proof" the moon is
blue cheese. But from, perhaps, a more rational viewpoint:

Bloomberg News - updated: 5 Mar 2020 at 17:31
-----
But since then the virus has spread rapidly outside China, where it
first emerged late last year, and has now reached some 80 countries
and territories. More than 95,000 people have been infected and over
3,200 have died worldwide.

California governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to make
more resources available and loosen regulations.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lifted most
restrictions on coronavirus testing on Wednesday, saying in a new set
of guidelines that doctors could use their judgment in deciding what
patients to test.
"This expands testing to a wider group of symptomatic patients," the
agency said in a document posted on its website.

The CDC has been criticised by local doctors and health officials over
overly restrictive testing criteria that had prevented physicians from
testing sick people who hadn't traveled to affected areas or had
contact with known patients. Also, the original test kit the CDC
produced had flaws that led to shortages of testing capacity, which
are only now being resolved.

--------------------------------

But, don't worry... it's no different than the common cold.

--
cheers,

John B.

[news18]

On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 09:33:18 +0700, John B. wrote:


> The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lifted most
> restrictions on coronavirus testing on Wednesday, saying in a new set of
> guidelines that doctors could use their judgment in deciding what
> patients to test.
> "This expands testing to a wider group of symptomatic patients," the
> agency said in a document posted on its website.
>
> The CDC has been criticised by local doctors and health officials over
> overly restrictive testing criteria that had prevented physicians from
> testing sick people who hadn't traveled to affected areas or had contact
> with known patients. Also, the original test kit the CDC produced had
> flaws that led to shortages of testing capacity, which are only now
> being resolved.

We've just had a situation where a GP came bacxk from overseas,
experienced a sort bout of being unwell, but as he didn't meet the
testing requirements, he didn't take a covid-19 test until after he went
back to work and took a testto be sure. Bang, he is now classed as
positive.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-gp-chris-higgins-hits-
back-at-health-minister/12036910

"A Melbourne GP who tested positive for the coronavirus after treating
dozens of patients has lashed out at Victorian Health Minister Jenny
Mikakos who criticised his decision to return to work".

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 15:29:18 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
<cycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
(...)

>Most of these people did NOT die from the virus but by pneumonia
>triggered by the respiratory illness. Half of these people died
>from the pneumonia which is a bacterial disease.

Pneumonia is simply an infection of the lungs:
<https://www.healthline.com/health/pneumonia>
Pneumonia is an infection in one or both lungs. Bacteria,
viruses, and fungi cause it.
The infection causes inflammation in the air sacs in your
lungs, which are called alveoli. The alveoli fill with
fluid or pus, making it difficult to breathe.

Basically, you drown in your own fluids. The big difference between
what is commonly called pneumonia and COVID-19 is that pneumonia
typically does not affect both lungs or the entire lung. That makes
breathing difficult, but not impossible. However, COVID-19 sometimes
affects all the alveoli in both lungs, where no part of the lungs is
available to take in oxygen and unload CO2. This video explains how
that condition can kill:

How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) &
Treatment
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ>

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 15:28:38 -0800 (PST), Andre Jute
<fiul...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>You need to work those numbers harder, Jeff.

Agreed. Taking numbers from 2008 and extrapolating them 12 year ahead
will certainly produce inaccuracies. I just took the numbers that
were easily available for an order of magnitude initial estimate.

>The 3.4m fatalities would
>be additional, on top of the the present load on the incinerators because
>non-infected people won't stop dying at their appointed time.

Most of the deaths have been in the 80+ year old group, which has a
high likelihood of having underlying pre-existing conditions and would
likely die even without the assistance of COVID-19. Much of the 3.4
million predicted fatalities will include those who would have died
from these existing conditions.

>Furthermore, the additional 3.4m will not spread over a year, like
>your numbers, but in a much shorter period, let's say over 3 mionths,
>at a rate of roughly 1.1m a month.

Considering the exponential increase in new cases, that would be
correct. However my guess(tm) is the number of fatalities in China
will decrease as the supply of 80+ year olds is slowly depleted.
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/>

>Let's say that the normal rate of cremations is spread evenly over
>the year, then there are near enough 380,000 normal cremations per
>month. In each of those months, add 1.1m plus, and the now the load
>is four times that expected in a normal year.

If that happens, the authorities are likely to improvise. I would not
be surprised if we start seeing bodies floating down the rivers,
dumped in the ocean, or improvised crematoriums (hole in the ground).

<https://www.google.com/search?q=cremation+furnace+&tbm=isch>
One of my first jobs was sweeping the floor at a mortuary. It's been
a long time, but I don't think things have changed very much. Some
effort is made to prevent the escape of potentially infectious
bacteria during the process. Oven temps run about 800C to insure
sterilization. The problem is the initial warmup from room
temperature to 800C, during which volatiles can escape. To limit
handling exposure, cremations are sometimes done with the casket made
from wood or cardboard. For this to work, there has to be an open
flame, which requires an exhaust system. A proper cremation furnace
has something resembling an afterburner to insure complete
incineration. Electric furnaces are better because they don't
generate much in the way of exhaust fumes. Improvised furnaces or
cremation pits are likely to not be sufficiently hot, not have
afterburners, and will probably not be able to safely deal with
contaminated coffins.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cremation>

>The problem with statistics is that your luck has, statistically, to run out sometime.

Agreed. In the end, we're all dead. The problem is when and how. My
vision of death has always been that I would meet my well deserved
demise by being run over by a distracted driver in the local
supermarket parking lot. Presumably, a plaque or memorial will be
constructed in the parking place. Ending my illustrious life in bed
and dying from the flu are not in my plans. I don't believe in luck,
but when there's not much of anything else available, I would consider
relying on it. I suspect this might be one of those times.

>Andre Jute
>Demographics are destiny

Destiny and statistics are only for the survivors.

[Tom Kunich]

Being interview, one of the people that tested positive for Co-vid19 said she hadn't even known she was sick.

One of the best ways of telling about the virus is that South Korea is something of a microcosm of free market health care and people that tend to live active and healthy lifestyles.

The latest numbers I have is that 7041 South Koreans have tested positive for Co-vid19 and there have only been 44 deaths for a fatality rate of 0.6%.

While the infection rate is about the same in Italy, the fatality rates are about 4%. The point man from the CDC said that the average age of infection in Italy is 60 and the average age for deaths is 80. Italians are not known for healthy lifestyles either.

Unless you have underlying respiratory troubles or are a chain smoker I wouldn't be too worried about this virus.

[Tom Kunich]

Please don't talk when you don't know. It isn't airborne in the direct way that some bacterial diseases are but it is in the micro-droplets of sputum when a person coughs. The CDC stated that you only had to be in a room with a victim for 10 minutes to have a near 100% chance of being infected.

[Tom Kunich]

There is also viral pneumonia. You have to be EXTREMELY careful at ER's since I took my brother to three ER's in three days and each on did a complete work-up on him with CAT scans and X-rays. They all could find nothing.

The fourth day he had an appointment with a podiatrist. My sister-in-law had gotten copies of the X-rays and CAT scans and asked the podiatrist to look at them. There was a bit of bickering as he said that wasn't his specialty. But with sufficient begging he finally gave it. He stuck the disk in and the picture appeared on the screen and the doctor INSTANTLY picked up the phone and called the big Sutter Hospital in downtown Oakland and told them to prep for emergency operation.

I drove my brother down there and they were waiting for him at the emergency entrance and threw him immediately on the cart and wheeled him directly into the operating room. He was in that room for 10 hours. He then spent another 10 days in the ICU and another 7 in the recovery ward.

Since he was 80 and pneumonia is one of the largest medical reasons for death in elders you would expect that the doctors in the ER would be able to identify it without trouble.

But as it turns out, ER's are filled with newly graduated doctors that don't know shit about anything. There is supposed to be a resident available but why wasn't this identified in the ER's? The FOOT DOCTOR only needed an instantaneous glance to identify it.

My brother doesn't get any exercise, stays indoors all day long and worst of all is a vegetarian. It is extremely difficult to get balanced proteins with a vegetarian diet and that makes you a walking, talking target for illnesses of many sorts.

[Tom Kunich]

There won't be an exponential increase. Like the cold virus the Co-Vid19 doesn't like heat, sunshine and high humidity. As Spring arrives Co-Vid19 will strike a stone wall.

[Andre Jute]

On Sunday, March 8, 2020 at 9:14:59 PM UTC, Tom Kunich wrote to news18:

> Please don't talk when you don't know. It isn't airborne in the direct way that some bacterial diseases are but it is in the micro-droplets of sputum when a person coughs. The CDC stated that you only had to be in a room with a victim for 10 minutes to have a near 100% chance of being infected.

Here in Ireland the official advice is to to spend more than 15 minutes face to face within 3ft of another person (any other person, not someone known to be infected).

Andre Jute
Total of 19 cases officially recognized today

[news18]

Thatt is a direct way. The more common way is to touch a surface where
those droplets have landed and then put hand to face, which is something
that people usually do many times and hour if not minute.

[news18]

On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 14:10:25 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:


> Being interview, one of the people that tested positive for Co-vid19
> said she hadn't even known she was sick.

Which is what you were claiming would be the case.

snip.

>
> The latest numbers I have is that 7041 South Koreans have tested
> positive for Co-vid19 and there have only been 44 deaths for a fatality
> rate of 0.6%.

Now, wil it go up or down.
AFAIK, they know patient 0 and the initil mass infection site and date,
so you should be able to predict either way.

>
> While the infection rate is about the same in Italy, the fatality rates
> are about 4%. The point man from the CDC said that the average age of
> infection in Italy is 60 and the average age for deaths is 80. Italians
> are not known for healthy lifestyles either.

Which is the country that heads the lst of unhealthy lifestyles again?

> Unless you have underlying respiratory troubles or are a chain smoker I
> wouldn't be too worried about this virus.

Since peole with those conditions shoud be worried about any infection,
that is a useless statement. A better statement woud be that anyone in
'reduced circumstances' should be worried because they will not have
access to better healthcare. Hint, peole in nursing homes are usually in
reduced circumstances to be there and the staffing is minimal and not
well trained for basic services, let alone special circumstances.

[John B.]

And you know this how? Experience? Research? How?

I ask as:
https://www.newsweek.com/could-coronavirus-really-killed-hot-weather-scientists-weigh-1486709
Asked if there is any evidence that the virus might be killed off by
April because of the warmer weather, Professor Paul Digard, chair of
virology at the University of Edinburgh, U.K., told Newsweek there
isn't enough to predict with certainty how it behaves in different
seasons.

https://www.cosmo.ph/health/health-report/who-novel-corona-virus-survive-hot-and-humid-weather-a989-20200209
World Health Organization (WHO) Philippines cleared the myth that the
novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) cannot survive long in the country
because of our weather. On a Twitter post, the organization clarified
that the "2019-nCoV has spread to countries with both hot and humid
climates, as well as cold and dry."

The rumor that the virus dies easily in tropical weather was started
by a Facebook post by a user named Lita Jugo. The post has been shared
more than 17,000 times as of the time of this writing.
--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

The latest figures seem to be (as of 03-09-2020)
7313 confirmed cases
50 deaths to date
118 successful recoveries.

Which would appear to mean that there are 7313 - (118+50) = 7,145
still sick. If the majority are still sick no accurate death rate can
be computed.

--
cheers,

John B.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 14:39:15 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
<cycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>There won't be an exponential increase. Like the cold virus the
>Co-Vid19 doesn't like heat, sunshine and high humidity. As
>Spring arrives Co-Vid19 will strike a stone wall.

There's not enough known about how the virus reacts to environmental
changes at this time. We'll know for sure in a few months. You might
be right because the seasons are inverted between north and south of
the equator, and there are fewer cases south of the equator at this
time.
<https://plague.com>
However, that could also be because there is more passenger traffic
north of the equator. However, if you're correct, then there should
be a corresponding exponential trend south of the equator during the
upcoming fall and winter seasons.

Also, the virus can survive quite nicely indoors for several days on
water droplets. With HVAC and A/C, indoor temperatures do not vary
seasonally very much.

I'm not an expert on the topic, but it's my (mis)understanding that
the reason colds, flu's, and contagious diseases are reduced during
summer is because the schools are closed for 3 months.

[John B.]

On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 23:30:46 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
wrote:

>On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 14:10:25 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:
>
>
>> Being interview, one of the people that tested positive for Co-vid19
>> said she hadn't even known she was sick.
>
>Which is what you were claiming would be the case.
>
>snip.
>>
>> The latest numbers I have is that 7041 South Koreans have tested
>> positive for Co-vid19 and there have only been 44 deaths for a fatality
>> rate of 0.6%.
>
>Now, wil it go up or down.
>AFAIK, they know patient 0 and the initil mass infection site and date,
>so you should be able to predict either way.
>

Who knows. The Thai Hospital I go to announced that they had cured an
individual using a combination of two drugs and I did ask my
cardiologist about it and he told me yes that they had "cured" the
individual. However this treatment does not seem to have become an
international remedy.

Unfortunately I don't believe that it is possible to pinpoint exact
figures as some people apparently can be exposed but not catch the
disease, others are exposed, contact the disease and recover, others
die. Is there a common denominate? Old people seem to die of the
disease more frequently but then old people die more frequently :-)

>>
>> While the infection rate is about the same in Italy, the fatality rates
>> are about 4%. The point man from the CDC said that the average age of
>> infection in Italy is 60 and the average age for deaths is 80. Italians
>> are not known for healthy lifestyles either.
>
>Which is the country that heads the lst of unhealthy lifestyles again?
>
>
>> Unless you have underlying respiratory troubles or are a chain smoker I
>> wouldn't be too worried about this virus.
>
>Since peole with those conditions shoud be worried about any infection,
>that is a useless statement. A better statement woud be that anyone in
>'reduced circumstances' should be worried because they will not have
>access to better healthcare. Hint, peole in nursing homes are usually in
>reduced circumstances to be there and the staffing is minimal and not
>well trained for basic services, let alone special circumstances.

--
cheers,

John B.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 14:32:50 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
<cycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>There is also viral pneumonia.

Like I said, pneumonia means there is an inflammation in the lungs.
Pneumonia is a symptom, not a disease. It can be caused by virus,
bacteria, chemical, fungi, or allergic reaction.

>But as it turns out, ER's are filled with newly graduated
>doctors that don't know shit about anything.

I've had more difficulties with experienced doctors who are set in
their ways and resistant to trying anything new. Either end of the
experience scale has its limitations and risks.

>There is supposed to be a resident available but why wasn't this
>identified in the ER's? The FOOT DOCTOR only needed an instantaneous
>glance to identify it.

A better question would be why wasn't a CBC (complete blood count)
blood test run, which would show if your brother was fighting some
kind of infection? If the doctors wanted more detail, a C-reactive
protein blood test.
<https://www.nice.org.uk/news/article/simple-blood-test-for-pneumonia-can-help-limit-use-of-antibiotics>
If your brother's pneumonia was sufficiently advanced that it required
some manner of immediate surgery, then I really doubt that the ER
doctors missed something. Following Occam's Razor, the simplest
explanation is they were looking at the wrong persons x-ray.

[Frank Krygowski]

Hey! Do not doubt our local economist / political analyst / electronics
designer / historian / bike mechanic / crime analyst / naval architect /
marksman / immigration expert / air combat historian / epidemiologist!
His expertise in all those fields is supreme, and must be respected! ;-)


--
- Frank Krygowski

[Sir Ridesalot]

I remember an old George Carlin skit. He said that somewhere there was a doctor practicing medicine and that that doctor graduated last in his class. People laughed. George then said, "What's really scary is that there's a room full of people waiting to see him".

Cheers

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 20:13:32 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
<i_am_cyc...@yahoo.ca> wrote:

Well, yet another topic drift...

>I remember an old George Carlin skit. He said that somewhere
>there was a doctor practicing medicine and that that doctor
>graduated last in his class. People laughed. George then said,
>"What's really scary is that there's a room full of people
>waiting to see him".
>
>Cheers

I've had plenty of opportunities to practice defensive medicine. By
defensive, I mean to defend myself against the mistakes of the medical
profession. Here's roughly how I do it.

1. I don't worry much about the doctors. Young or old, they all have
their good and bad points. I have yet to meet a "bad" doctor but
plenty that I disagree with. They do their job the way they think
best. My job is to double check EVERYTHING the doctors diagnose,
decide, recommend and prescribe. If we disagree and if possible, I
find a different doctor. If not possible, I fasten my seat belt and
prepare for a rough ride.

2. I've survived a few minor and one major medical screwup. The
major screwup was caused by a botched lab test. The minor screwups
were cause by the doctors staff or hospital administration. I caught
all of them before they became a real problem. My job is double check
EVERYTHING the office and hospital staff schedule, test, and inform.

4. I don't trust anyone else with my health problems. Some of the
recommended treatments, drugs, and dosages were wrong. I check these
before I take or do anything, and recommend changes in drugs and
dosages. The problem is the doctors seem to prescribe the recommended
drugs and dosages before they will change anything. The result is
that I sometimes need to produce evidence of adverse reactions or lack
of desired results before the doctors will even consider a change.

5. I don't wait until a problem is obvious. I predict impending
doom, I order and pay for my own blood test twice per year.
<https://www.directlabs.com>
These tests have caught problems long before any symptoms would have
appeared. Be prepared to have a "discussion" with your doctor over
what might be perceived as checking your doctors work.

I'm not sure these suggestions are for everyone. It takes some
medical knowledge, lots of reading, careful filtering out of false
online information, asking the right questions, and forever double
checking literally everything coming from the doctors, staff,
hospital, pharmacy, friends, internet, etc. Offhand, I would
guess(tm) that there are equal amounts of obsolete, bad, and good
advice available.

[John B.]

I know, I know. Such a shame too that he cannot find employment. Why!
It is a stain on the necktie of America that an individual with his
abilities is not employed.

It can only be assumed that it is a plot! A plot I say, by the
Democratic Political Party, that this man, at the absolute peak of his
powers, cannot find a job.... AND! His hair all fell out. He is as
slick on the top as a billiard ball.

Will those Democrats stop at nothing?
--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 20:58:11 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
wrote:

With all this toing and froing why bother to visit a doctor at all?
--
cheers,

John B.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 22:54:25 -0400, Frank Krygowski
<frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

>Hey! Do not doubt our local economist / political analyst / electronics
>designer / historian / bike mechanic / crime analyst / naval architect /
>marksman / immigration expert / air combat historian / epidemiologist!
>His expertise in all those fields is supreme, and must be respected! ;-)

Perhaps a different system might be more appropriate to establish
expertise. The person who posts the most, is deemed an expert. For
those participating in this thread from Jan 1, 2019 through today per
Google Groups "show activity":

Frank Krygowski 3000
Andrew Amuzi 3000
Jay Beattie 3000
Sir Ridesalot 3000
Jeff Liebermann 2674
Andre Jute 2980
John B. 2196
Tom Kunich 1041
news18 872
Sepp Ruf 309
pH 75

Argh. This isn't going to work. Google can't count about 3000.
So, anyone who hits the 3000 postings mark is entitled to call himself
an expert. Lesser mortals will need to work harder.

[news18]

On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 08:05:58 +0700, John B. wrote:

> On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 14:39:15 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
> <cycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>

>>There won't be an exponential increase. Like the cold virus the Co-Vid19
>>doesn't like heat, sunshine and high humidity. As Spring arrives
>>Co-Vid19 will strike a stone wall.
>
> And you know this how? Experience? Research? How?
>
> I ask as:
> https://www.newsweek.com/could-coronavirus-really-killed-hot-weather-
scientists-weigh-1486709
> Asked if there is any evidence that the virus might be killed off by
> April because of the warmer weather, Professor Paul Digard, chair of
> virology at the University of Edinburgh, U.K., told Newsweek there isn't
> enough to predict with certainty how it behaves in different seasons.

Sigh, it is just Tommy again.
plenty of people here get 'summer flu' and we have hotter summers than
many countires.

[news18]

On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 21:26:28 -0700, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

> On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 22:54:25 -0400, Frank Krygowski
> <frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>>Hey! Do not doubt our local economist / political analyst / electronics
>>designer / historian / bike mechanic / crime analyst / naval architect /
>>marksman / immigration expert / air combat historian / epidemiologist!
>>His expertise in all those fields is supreme, and must be respected!
>>;-)
>
> Perhaps a different system might be more appropriate to establish
> expertise. The person who posts the most, is deemed an expert. For
> those participating in this thread from Jan 1, 2019 through today per
> Google Groups "show activity":
>
> Frank Krygowski 3000 Andrew Amuzi 3000 Jay Beattie 3000
> Sir Ridesalot 3000

Sorry Jeff. you just miss oot on being in the brains trust.
>Jeff Liebermann 2674

[news18]

On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 09:11:55 +0700, John B. wrote:

> On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 23:30:46 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
> wrote:
>
>>On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 14:10:25 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>
>>
>>> Being interview, one of the people that tested positive for Co-vid19
>>> said she hadn't even known she was sick.
>>
>>Which is what you were claiming would be the case.
>>
>>snip.
>>>
>>> The latest numbers I have is that 7041 South Koreans have tested
>>> positive for Co-vid19 and there have only been 44 deaths for a
>>> fatality rate of 0.6%.
>>
>>Now, wil it go up or down.
>>AFAIK, they know patient 0 and the initil mass infection site and date,
>>so you should be able to predict either way.
>>
> Who knows. The Thai Hospital I go to announced that they had cured an
> individual using a combination of two drugs and I did ask my
> cardiologist about it and he told me yes that they had "cured" the
> individual. However this treatment does not seem to have become an
> international remedy.

One off cases are always interesting,but rarely become the rule.

As you say, individual resposes vary.

>
> Unfortunately I don't believe that it is possible to pinpoint exact
> figures as some people apparently can be exposed but not catch the
> disease, others are exposed, contact the disease and recover, others
> die. Is there a common denominate? Old people seem to die of the disease
> more frequently but then old people die more frequently :-)

Err, nit pick, they only die once, but I know what you are saying.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Mon, 9 Mar 2020 04:40:33 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
wrote:

You're right, but for the wrong reason. I can't trust my brain. The
user activity count is actually from Jan 1, 2013 through today.
However, the count is still limited to 3000 messages.

"When quality is inadequate, perhaps quantity will suffice."
(I forgot from whom I stole that).

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 09:11:55 +0700, John B.

<jbsl...@fictitious.site> wrote:

>The Thai Hospital I go to announced that they had cured an
>individual using a combination of two drugs and I did ask my
>cardiologist about it and he told me yes that they had "cured" the
>individual. However this treatment does not seem to have become an
>international remedy.

Big Pharma doesn't want a cure. They want a "lifestyle" drug that
must be taken repeatedly to be effective. They may have their wish as
there's anecdotal evidence that surviving COVID-19 does not
necessarily result in lifetime immunity.

Coronavirus: why do ‘recovered’ patients test positive again?
<https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3065022/coronavirus-why-do-recovered-patients-test-positive-again>

[John B.]

On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 22:57:23 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 09:11:55 +0700, John B.
><jbsl...@fictitious.site> wrote:
>
>>The Thai Hospital I go to announced that they had cured an
>>individual using a combination of two drugs and I did ask my
>>cardiologist about it and he told me yes that they had "cured" the
>>individual. However this treatment does not seem to have become an
>>international remedy.
>
>Big Pharma doesn't want a cure. They want a "lifestyle" drug that
>must be taken repeatedly to be effective. They may have their wish as
>there's anecdotal evidence that surviving COVID-19 does not
>necessarily result in lifetime immunity.
>
>Coronavirus: why do ‘recovered’ patients test positive again?
><https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3065022/coronavirus-why-do-recovered-patients-test-positive-again>

The article you quote answers your question.

"Why are people testing positive twice?

it's not that these people get a second infection, or a persistent
infection, as some worried,said Professor Jin Dong-yan, a molecular
virologist from the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine at the University
of Hong Kong.

It was either because the tests were not done properly in the first
place, or the patient was undergoing a long course of the disease, he
said."

--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

On Mon, 9 Mar 2020 04:46:45 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>

wrote:

>On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 09:11:55 +0700, John B. wrote:
>
>> On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 23:30:46 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>On Sun, 08 Mar 2020 14:10:25 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>> Being interview, one of the people that tested positive for Co-vid19
>>>> said she hadn't even known she was sick.
>>>
>>>Which is what you were claiming would be the case.
>>>
>>>snip.
>>>>
>>>> The latest numbers I have is that 7041 South Koreans have tested
>>>> positive for Co-vid19 and there have only been 44 deaths for a
>>>> fatality rate of 0.6%.
>>>
>>>Now, wil it go up or down.
>>>AFAIK, they know patient 0 and the initil mass infection site and date,
>>>so you should be able to predict either way.
>>>
>> Who knows. The Thai Hospital I go to announced that they had cured an
>> individual using a combination of two drugs and I did ask my
>> cardiologist about it and he told me yes that they had "cured" the
>> individual. However this treatment does not seem to have become an
>> international remedy.
>
>One off cases are always interesting,but rarely become the rule.
>
>As you say, individual resposes vary.

Unfortunately, in order to be more explicit, I'd have to see my
cardiologist but I don't have another appointment for 3 more months so
I can't get a more detailed explanation :-)

>>
>> Unfortunately I don't believe that it is possible to pinpoint exact
>> figures as some people apparently can be exposed but not catch the
>> disease, others are exposed, contact the disease and recover, others
>> die. Is there a common denominate? Old people seem to die of the disease
>> more frequently but then old people die more frequently :-)
>
>Err, nit pick, they only die once, but I know what you are saying.

--
cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

That's true.
I am the world's foremost expert on my opinion, just not on
any other topic.

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

[Sir Ridesalot]

I wonder, but don't worry about it, how the resurgence of the mosquito population in spring will affect the spread of this latest virus.

Cheers

[AMuzi]

I have no idea. Here's a typical data set for influenza in
Canada:

https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-research-and-statistics/resources/Images/PastSeasonFlu.png

USA and European graphs are similar, Australian charts being
the inverse of the same pattern. I learned that many years
ago and a quick search confirms the general principle holds,
although years do vary some in volume and duration.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 08:15:55 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>That's true.
>I am the world's foremost expert on my opinion, just not on
>any other topic.

You're very fortunate. I often read what I posted a day or more
previously, and ask myself "Did I write that"? Since my opinion in
all matters is absolute and beyond reproach, I can only suspect that
the facts have changed overnight, when I wasn't looking.

I'm always right, except when I'm wrong.

[Frank Krygowski]

On 3/8/2020 11:58 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>
> I've had plenty of opportunities to practice defensive medicine. By
> defensive, I mean to defend myself against the mistakes of the medical
> profession. Here's roughly how I do it.
>
> 1. I don't worry much about the doctors. Young or old, they all have
> their good and bad points. I have yet to meet a "bad" doctor but
> plenty that I disagree with. They do their job the way they think
> best. My job is to double check EVERYTHING the doctors diagnose,

> decide, recommend and prescribe. ...

Regarding bad doctors and double checking: Of course, that's very
difficult for most people. But here's an incident for you.

When one of our kids was quite young (maybe 4 years old?) there was one
scary illness. Sorry, I don't recall the details, but it involved a
quick appointment the end of the doctor's work day. We were the last
ones in, got a rushed exam, then a prescription.

I hurried to the pharmacy. The pharmacy technician took the slip and
said it would be just a few minutes. I mentioned my kid.

Then the pharmacist himself came out and said "Did you say this is for a
child? This is an adult dose! If you gave this to a child, there would
be real problems." Partly because of that incident, I value a good
pharmacist.

That physician made other mistakes - for example, sending me for a full
and costly ophthalmology workup, only to have the eye doctor say "You
just have dry eye. Use these drops."

BTW, our current (for 20 years!) physician was also a pharmacist, and is
the son of the pharmacist who caught that mistake. He's very competent,
and willing to discuss anything at length. Great guy.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[Tom Kunich]

For about two weeks I have had what appeared to be a dust allergy which isn't unusual for me. So I didn't pay any attention to it. It continued getting worse and I simply treated it with over-the-counter drugs. Then I have a tooth pulled to be replaced with an implant. Then the "allergy" built to a crescendo last night even after I totally cleaned the house and the heater filter. Last evening I was using Kleenex so fast it was ridiculous so I used an allergy tablet to try to stop the nose running and then used a very powerful nose spray. I woke up this morning on-the-mend as they say. The pain in my mouth from the healing gum is also a great deal less. I haven't had to take any painkillers since last night.

Is this a cold or Co-vid19? Who knows? I am certainly not going to go to the doctor and risk infecting him or his staff. Equally the same with a hospital where the people presenting there all have serious health issues.

So I'm not going to worry about it. Despite being 75 and taking pills for my concussion that somewhat suppress my immune system this was no big deal. I cannot understand that panic about Co-vid19 when the SAME PEOPLE would die the same way if they contract flu. World wide last year I think that 90,000 people died from influenza. I don't see 3,500 deaths as anything to panic about.

And let's be clear - you have an immensely larger chance of being killed in an auto accident. I am trying to understand if this wild panic is from the media simply because they don't have anything to report that isn't very positive for Trump or because this is George Soros again trying to crash the US Economy like he did Great Britain's.

[Tom Kunich]

You're right that there isn't enough information on this but the common cold is caused by rhino-viruses (four different types) which are also corona viruses and Co-vid19 bears a striking resemblance to one of those types. My suspicion is that it is a mutated cold virus and it will behave just like the common cold.

[Tom Kunich]

The ER doctor that performed the surgery had to be relieved half way through draining the pus out of half of my brother's half lung cavity. He stopped by and said that my brother was within hours of death.

You tell me why these ER's which are generally manned by several interns and a single resident did not properly diagnose this.

How do you propose that three different hospitals were looking at the wrong X-rays? What I see is mass incompetence possibly due to lack of rest.

But let's remember that when I went into the hospital that released me without any tests or without keeping me overnight for observations after I had been unconscious for over 5 minutes and I asked the ER doctor why they didn't do a better job he actually laughed at me. He said the best they could have hoped for was that a nurse might see me have a seizure if they kept me overnight. To me that spells that there is a level of incompetence in the medical profession today that is pretty astonishing. Doctors go from medical school and serve as interns in hospitals. And since the resident doctors don't want long hours these interns serve almost entirely in the ER. Only a single resident will be there and he is generally involved in the most serious cases which are normally car crashes and gun-shot wounds. So not only are these interns beginning doctors but they are poorly supervised and serve very long hours. Does that sound like a formula for making sound decisions?

[Tom Kunich]

Stop with that screwy "Big Pharma" crap. They make money regardless of whether the drug is long term or one dose. It simply effects the pricing. Long term the patent on a drug runs out and they have competition. If they have been overcharging it becomes plain to those who use drugs and that company is black-balled.

I use a drug that is sold both under a brand name and a generic. Originally it cost peanuts and now it costs me nothing since the medical insurance covers generic drugs. This is an anti-seizure drug most commonly sold to diabetics so this would be the perfect drug to overcharge for and they don't.

[Tom Kunich]

I often wonder what goes on in the heads of people. I have noticed that I write things in a manner that can be misconstrued. I bought a camera off of eBay and the woman had to contact me twice because she couldn't find the camera bag and I simply didn't make it perfectly clear that I was only interested in the camera and couldn't care less about the bag.

Perhaps that is part of the problem here. Jay just said something outrageous the other day and I could only think that he simply didn't understand what I was saying. That's got to be my fault in his case. Frank and John plainly take people out of context on purpose. Others here such as you, always give everyone the benefit of the doubt. I suppose that's because you worked with customers and not enemies.

[jbeattie]

Once again, have you made even a minimal effort to learn the symptoms of COVID-19? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html Sneezing and allergy symptoms (except SOB) are not symptoms of the disease. It doesn't present like a cold, and is closer to flu with respiratory symptoms. What kills people is acute respiratory failure.

>
> So I'm not going to worry about it. Despite being 75 and taking pills for my concussion that somewhat suppress my immune system this was no big deal. I cannot understand that panic about Co-vid19 when the SAME PEOPLE would die the same way if they contract flu. World wide last year I think that 90,000 people died from influenza. I don't see 3,500 deaths as anything to panic about.

I'm not worrying about it either, but the SAME PEOPLE would not die the SAME way -- particularly if they got this year's flu vaccine. You're talking about an unvaccinated population with no natural immunity to a novel virus. That virus can cause acute respiratory distress and death in certain populations -- for reasons that are different from those that cause respiratory distress in elderly flu patients.

Take off your tin-foil hat and knock-off the supposed Soros plots. COVID-19 is what it is and shouldn't be turned into another plot against St. Donnie, patron saint of golfing.

-- Jay Beattie.

[Tom Kunich]

Funny how the people that actually have tested positive for it tell a different story. They have been interviewed multiple times on TV and yet you seem to think them all stupid hicks because you can look up on the CDC site. None of the people said that they had a very high temperature nor did they even feel shortness of breath. Coughing? exactly what do you call a cough?

Whatever goes on in your mind I sure can't make out. Are you feeling bad because Trump is putting too many people in a position where they are happy and satisfied and you can't get them to sue others? It is getting to be a laugh that law forms are advertising all of the different things you can sue for and no one is taking the bait.

It was common knowledge that Hollywood was one giant homosexual pedophile ring and the kids even went to the police and NOTHING would happen. So if you don't like the way things are now - good.

[news18]

On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 09:36:39 -0500, AMuzi wrote:


> I have no idea. Here's a typical data set for influenza in Canada:
>
> https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-research-and-statistics/
resources/Images/PastSeasonFlu.png
>
> USA and European graphs are similar, Australian charts being the inverse
> of the same pattern. I learned that many years ago and a quick search
> confirms the general principle holds,
> although years do vary some in volume and duration.

Australia is still in single figure deaths and <100 per state infected.
Everyone is waiting to see if the figure blow out.
The catch is the blow out will line up with the normal peak flu period.

The first line from government was that they'll just activate "surge
capacity" to which all the medical peope said "what surge capacty, we are
at maximum now". Fun times ahead.

Their second line is that "this is an economic emergency" and some how
they are going to wave their magic wand and fx the "suppl shock" where
china isn't take or exports nor sending up the usual boat loads of
fripheries. Interesting times.

[Sepp Ruf]

Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 15:29:18 -0800 (PST), Tom Kunich
> <cycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> (...)
>> Most of these people did NOT die from the virus but by pneumonia
>> triggered by the respiratory illness. Half of these people died
>>from the pneumonia which is a bacterial disease.
>
> Pneumonia is simply an infection of the lungs:
> <https://www.healthline.com/health/pneumonia>
> Pneumonia is an infection in one or both lungs. Bacteria,
> viruses, and fungi cause it.
> The infection causes inflammation in the air sacs in your
> lungs, which are called alveoli. The alveoli fill with
> fluid or pus, making it difficult to breathe.
>
> Basically, you drown in your own fluids. The big difference between
> what is commonly called pneumonia and COVID-19 is that pneumonia
> typically does not affect both lungs or the entire lung. That makes
> breathing difficult, but not impossible. However, COVID-19 sometimes
> affects all the alveoli in both lungs, where no part of the lungs is
> available to take in oxygen and unload CO2. This video explains how
> that condition can kill:
>
> How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) &
> Treatment
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ>

16% sounds nice, but due to the time-delayed fuse of the Wuhan virus bomb
and hesitant Western politicians, the resources just won't be there.

Plenty of Italian "virus refugees" have been heading to the neighboring
countries, for weeks. You can tell by the contents of their shopping carts
that they aren't tourists. At least they refrain from coughing to get in
front of the line....

Daniele Macchini reporting from Bergamo, last Friday:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=3395151233834056&set=a.442367822445760&type=3&_fb_noscript=1

translating excerpts:
The war has literally exploded and the battles are uninterrupted day and night.
One after another, the poor unfortunate people show up in the emergency
room. They have anything but the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying
it's a bad flu. In these 2 years I've learned that people from Bergamo don't
come to the ER for nothing. They behaved well this time too. They have
followed all the indications given: a week or ten days at home with fever
without going out and risking infection, but now they can't take it anymore.
They're not breathing enough, they need oxygen.

Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. Because that's
the difference (now I'll go down a little bit in the technical): in
classical flu, apart from infecting much less population over several
months, cases can be complicated less frequently, only when the VIRUS
destroying the protective barriers of our airways allows BACTERIA normally
resident in the upper respiratory tract to invade bronchi and lungs causing
more serious cases. Covid 19 causes a trivial influenza in many young
people, but in many elderly people (and not only) a real SARS because it
reaches directly into the alveoli of the lungs and infects them making them
unable to perform their function. The resulting respiratory insufficiency is
often serious and after a few days of hospitalization the simple oxygen that
can be administered in a ward may not be enough.

Excuse me, but it does not reassure me as a doctor that the most serious
ones are predominantly elderly people with other diseases. The elderly
population is the most represented in our country and it is hard to find
someone over 65 who does not take at least the pill for blood pressure or
diabetes. I assure you then that when you see young people who end up in
intensive care intubated, pronated or worse in ECMO (a machine for the worst
cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the
body, waiting for the body, hopefully, to heal their lungs), all this peace
of mind for your young age passes you by.


--
https://veloklassiker.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/corona3.jpg

[Tom Kunich]

Part of the trouble is that this is an illness that is most dangerous to senior citizens. So many of them never took one single step that they didn't need to. They couldn't be bothered to eat balanced meals. So you can expect to see the numbers of deaths following the percentage of the population that is older and less active. Italy's population is 25% senior citizens and pasta and wine aficionados.

The US is 17% senior citizens but being active became a cult activity for most older Americans when it became known that Alzheimer's and other dementias could have delayed onset if you were fit and exercised a lot.

Aussies seem to have a pretty small percentage of the population that are over the age of 64.

So I think that Co-vid19 won't hit the US like it is doing in Italy and I think that Australia is going to get off pretty lightly.

[Tom Kunich]

On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:14:01 PM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
> They're not breathing enough, they need oxygen.
>
> Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. Because that's
> the difference (now I'll go down a little bit in the technical): in
> classical flu, apart from infecting much less population over several
> months, cases can be complicated less frequently, only when the VIRUS
> destroying the protective barriers of our airways allows BACTERIA normally

Sepp, excuse me but are you in medicine? MOST flu is rapid onset.

Why was no one interested in the polio-like disease that swept through the world during Obama's time in office? One of the really fast guys I used to ride with became a complete paralytic. He couldn't even feed himself. Last I heard he was finally making a come-back from it and was trying to ride again. That is a hell of a long time without the ability to even walk.

Try THAT on for size and knock off the bullshit about how dangerous Covid19 is when we HAVE the numbers and even in Italy which is now the second place in cases, they have a 5% fatality rate. And as I point out they have a very large senior citizen population that aren't fitness directed.

I suspect without any data of course, that everyone in those northern areas of Italy has had it and like me isn't about to take up important time and effects of doctors or hospital staff. So the numbers look far worse than they actually are. In China you'll probably discover that the problem was FAR less that it is being reported because they simply don't have the ability to properly diagnose it.

[pH]

<snip>
> >
> >The Sea Otter classic has been "delayed" here in the Monterey Bay area
> >and there's even talk of cancelling the Big Sur Marathon.
> >
> >Gov. Newsome commanded a cruise liner to stay offshore off of SF (who's the
> >lawyer around here--can a Gov. do things like that legally?).
>
> I'm not a lawyer, but I did sail a boat into and out of various
> countries and every country (that I've been in) has specific rules
> that you must comply with and bringing a ship/boat into harbor with
> sickness aboard is definitely not allowed. There is even a special
> flag that a boat with sickness aboard is supposed to fly to warn
> others to keep away.
>
> >All this because of a handful of cases of this flu-like virus? There must
> >be something much more going on here than meets the eye, but I have no idea
> >what.
> >
> >ph
> --
> cheers,
>
> John B.

Hmm...that makes sense (so it can't be right). I guess a soverign nation would frown upon a plague ship coming into port with all the Yersinia-infested rats making their way onto shore.

Did you come across any interesting thigns on your voyages? Spirits, floating containers, castaways, abandoned vessels, ufo's or the like?
Oh, containers full of bicycles/parts to stay on topic.

pH in Aptos

[AMuzi]

Corona COVD19 in Italy has been primarily in the north, not
Sicily so much.

Northern Italians eat pasta as a small side plate to a
balanced dinner. It was only the sole entree in the poor
southern regions and even that is mostly in the past.

[pH]

<snip>
> This might be worth a read:
>
> The Coronavirus, by the Numbers
> A mathematician who studies the spread of disease explains some of the
> figures that keep popping up in coronavirus news.
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.html>

>

> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
> 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
> Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
> Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

Thanks for this link, Jeff. Interesting reqad.
But I remember reading somhwhere where Google had an experimental program of predicting disease outbreaks by following hospital visits or some such.

They seem to silent so far on this one.

So far it all seems to be a test run on how compliant the populace is in general to do as they are told. It seems odd to me the the entire world is going along with it and behaving as though it is the "Andromeda Strain" unless there is much more going on here than meets the eye.


pH in Aptos

[John B.]

"Have been interviewed multiple times on TV"?

The vast majority of the Covid-19 sufferers are Chinese. You watch
Chinese TV?

>Whatever goes on in your mind I sure can't make out. Are you feeling bad because Trump is putting too many people in a position where they are happy and satisfied and you can't get them to sue others? It is getting to be a laugh that law forms are advertising all of the different things you can sue for and no one is taking the bait.
>
>It was common knowledge that Hollywood was one giant homosexual pedophile ring and the kids even went to the police and NOTHING would happen. So if you don't like the way things are now - good.

--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

I see.... Jay said something outrageous; Frank and John take people
out of context;... and you tell lies.

And you firmly believe that you are the good guy!
--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

Probably everyone can come up with at least one story about how the
"doctor f--ked up" and they are all likely at least partially true.
But medical folks are human and humans do make mistakes from time to
time - it's just human nature :-(

The solution is, of course, is one really does feel that professional
treatment is unsafe is just don't go to the doctor. Homeopathy has a
long history, there are spirit healers and even old Grandmothers, all
available for medical treatment.

And if you are wrong, well, there are those prepared to give the
Sacraments 24 hours a day.
--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

Right now the opinion is that the disease is not spread by mosquitoes
but this is still the cold season in Wuhan, 9 - 16 degrees (C) and
there likely aren't any mosquitoes yet.

--
cheers,

John B.

[Sir Ridesalot]

Which is why I wonder if mosquitoes will spread it like West Nile Virus or Malaria.

Cheers

[jbeattie]

On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:34:33 PM UTC-7, Tom Kunich wrote:
> On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:14:01 PM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
> > They're not breathing enough, they need oxygen.
> >
> > Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. Because that's
> > the difference (now I'll go down a little bit in the technical): in
> > classical flu, apart from infecting much less population over several
> > months, cases can be complicated less frequently, only when the VIRUS
> > destroying the protective barriers of our airways allows BACTERIA normally
>
> Sepp, excuse me but are you in medicine? MOST flu is rapid onset.
>
> Why was no one interested in the polio-like disease that swept through the world during Obama's time in office? One of the really fast guys I used to ride with became a complete paralytic. He couldn't even feed himself. Last I heard he was finally making a come-back from it and was trying to ride again. That is a hell of a long time without the ability to even walk.

So what fantasy are you peddling this time -- Obama polio? I think only the reptilians got that. At least you could get your conspiracy theories right. Obama had to deal with Swine Flu, H1N1. It doesn't cause paralysis. Here, once again, is a link: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/swine-flu/symptoms-causes/syc-20378103 If you're thinking of AFM, that's a Trump thing.

>
> Try THAT on for size and knock off the bullshit about how dangerous Covid19 is when we HAVE the numbers and even in Italy which is now the second place in cases, they have a 5% fatality rate. And as I point out they have a very large senior citizen population that aren't fitness directed.

> I suspect without any data of course, that everyone in those northern areas of Italy has had it and like me isn't about to take up important time and effects of doctors or hospital staff. So the numbers look far worse than they actually are. In China you'll probably discover that the problem was FAR less that it is being reported because they simply don't have the ability to properly diagnose it.

Tom, the world looks to you for guidance. You know, you probably know more than the scientists. They've said that. You have some sort of natural instinct for science. You know, if you hadn't been a tech of some sort, you could have been a great scientist.

-- Jay Beattie.

[John B.]

Nope, nothing exciting when it happened.

The great Tsunami wave of 2004 passed directly under us. We were about
half between the coast and Phi Phi Island, motoring along and I looked
up and the horizon was "RIGHT THERE!" What tha... and the horizon was
back to normal. Then we saw the wave hit the mainland which was
probably 5 - 7 miles away and it looked like an artillery barrage with
waves exploding into the air. We still couldn't imagine what happened.

Then the radio sparked up. A guy calling, he had a dead body and where
was the closest place to see the police; all boats in Phi Phi harbor
are sunk!; Look out for the after shock!

A few years later I run into a great mass of floating garbage between
Penang and Langkawi islands. (It is about 70 N. miles). It took about
an hour to get through it at probably 5 -6 knots and twice I had to
dive to clear trash off the props :-)

So the two most exciting events in my boating career. I met a tsunami
and didn't know it and motored through a great mass of garbage :-)
--
cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

On Mon, 9 Mar 2020 19:11:33 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot

Well, given that the U.S. seems to be lagging behind the rest of the
world in the virus sweepstakes :-) it ought to be in full swing by the
time that the mosquitoes come out. Then we'll know.
--
cheers,

John B.

[news18]

I think I've met the guy who took all your exciting sailing adventures.
Working at a gov run youth camp there was this old guy, old enough to
require an afternoon nap, who, each evening woud regale his fellow
workers withh tales of his various sailing adventures in moving various
yachts around the globe. Each adventure basically ended in disaster of
one kind or another; sinking, running aground, breaking, being clapped in
irons, etc, etc. Not once did he tell of a "boring safe" trip.

[news18]

On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 17:34:31 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:

> On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:14:01 PM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
>> They're not breathing enough, they need oxygen.
>>
>> Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. Because
>> that's the difference (now I'll go down a little bit in the technical):
>> in classical flu, apart from infecting much less population over
>> several months, cases can be complicated less frequently, only when the
>> VIRUS destroying the protective barriers of our airways allows BACTERIA
>> normally
>
> Sepp, excuse me but are you in medicine? MOST flu is rapid onset.

Up tp three days apparently, but Covid-19 can take 5-6 days.

>
> Why was no one interested in the polio-like disease that swept through
> the world during Obama's time in office?

Shrug,it has been around longer. Woops it is polio and just burst out of
the back blocks where it has been all this time. Hint, increased global
mass migration

> One of the really fast guys I used to ride with became a complete
> paralytic. He couldn't even feed
> himself. Last I heard he was finally making a come-back from it and was
> trying to ride again. That is a hell of a long time without the ability
> to even walk.

Yep, that is polio. If he is a young guy, he can expect the effects to
hit him again in old age. so he needs to make sure thay any abode can be
retrofitted for wheel chair and other aids.

>
> Try THAT on for size and knock off the bullshit about how dangerous
> Covid19 is when we HAVE the numbers

We have preliminary numbers and only you keeps squarkng that they are
just the same as the common flu. 5% is not the fatality rate of the
common flu.

> and even in Italy which is now the
> second place in cases, they have a 5% fatality rate.

which isn't the 0.1% rate of the commn flu.

> And as I point out
> they have a very large senior citizen population that aren't fitness
> directed.
>
> I suspect without any data of course, that everyone in those northern
> areas of Italy has had it and like me isn't about to take up important
> time and effects of doctors or hospital staff. So the numbers look far
> worse than they actually are. In China you'll probably discover that the
> problem was FAR less that it is being reported because they simply don't
> have the ability to properly diagnose it.

Hint, Ars technica has a good article that explains the backgroud and
shifting numbers.

[news18]

On Mon, 09 Mar 2020 19:49:34 -0700, jbeattie wrote:


> So what fantasy are you peddling this time -- Obama polio? I think only
> the reptilians got that.

It was probably a Bbush thing for sendng all those troops into
Afghanistan where it still lurks in the wild.

[John B.]

On Tue, 10 Mar 2020 05:34:51 -0000 (UTC), news18 <new...@woa.com.au>
wrote:

Experienced sailors really do strive to have boring voyages :-)

I once had an engine cooling hose burst while entering a vary narrow
channel into an enclosed anchorage. No motor, no wind, tide floating
me toward what I know is a coral reef. It does gives one a rather
dramatic sense of inadequacy :-)
--
cheers,

John B.

[news18]

The really funny side of the crap you post is that you Tommy, tick all
those boxes, plus a whole lot more.

> The US is 17% senior citizens but being active became a cult activity
> for most older Americans when it became known that Alzheimer's and other
> dementias could have delayed onset if you were fit and exercised a lot.

Obviously there are exceptions. your points might be believable if that
wasn't the generation that converted the USa from fit and active farm
workers into fat slobs whose arse is welded into a gas guzzling motor car.

>
> Aussies seem to have a pretty small percentage of the population that
> are over the age of 64.

Hahahaha, Obviously you are not reading te same stats that our government
is. They are having fits at the percentage that are past and hitting
retirement age.

>
> So I think that Co-vid19 won't hit the US like it is doing in Italy

Refresh my memory about how many plane flights there are between the USA
and China a day. Not just people gong home for Chinese New Year, bu all
those other tourist doing a chinese trip and al those business trips.

> and I think that Australia is going to get off pretty lightly.

ATM,far too soon to say. It is taking the elderly in nursing homes at
present and infection control in those places makes those cruise ships
seem like ultra-sterile places. Hint, every time a NH resident gets a
sniffle, tehy end up in a hospital bed and hosptals are all at capacity
most of the time.

Australia has a very large Chinese migrant popuation, who are not being
prevented from returnng from trips to Chinese New Year. There is an
enormous number of Australians in china for work who are not being
revented from coming home. GovCo organsed 2.5 plane loads to come bacvk.

All they need to do is get home before fever starts and if it is mild,
they will not even think of self isolating, if they can. Our stupid Prime
minster thinks everyone can just used uber-eats, which doesn't exist ot f
cty centre bubble.

Plus an enormous Chinese student population who are using every trick in
the book to get back for the start of this years study.

Plus all those indirect trips from China, such as two radiologists who
picked it up at a conference in Singapore(?). a hotel worker who picked
it up in Iran, had the test and worked in a major hotel while waiting for
the four days for the results to come back.

Funnily, they imposed ow restrictin on passengers from itally until very
recenty.

Every morning, I listen to the news which is largely the covid-19 stats
for this state, the latest infections discovered and details of what they
discovered about how the infections happened.

Stuff like, one of those radiologist, gave it to their son,who might or
might not have passed it around his school. Given that it could take a
week for the infections to show up. PS they shut the school down for a
day, a Friday, then resumed normally on the Monday.

It has now turned up in two other schools. They are now counting defence
force personnel who have tested positive.

Then there is the collateral damage on our health workers who are all
required to self isolate for 14 days when they have unwitting contact
with someone testing postive. At least one medical clinic is now
shuttered for a least that period.

Really, I am justs reporting on some of the going on in Sydeny, NSW and
that s st the onew that "make the news" Have you seen the viral toilet
paper fights on social media. Plod has reprted at least six of they have
been called to. Interestingly, based on collected chinese figures, 45 do
get diarrhea.

I think we are in for an interesting six(?) months.
Since we are both retired. it time to stock up at the library and fill up
the pantry to minimise contact with the unknown carriers that almost
certainy circulating.





at ths stage,, then cto arod hs school, r mght not h

[Sepp Ruf]

jbeattie wrote:
> On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:34:33 PM UTC-7, Tom Kunich wrote:
>> On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:14:01 PM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:

>> Sepp, excuse me

No, this is rbt, and we are very proud of our long tradition of firm
principles here. Sloppy reading, misrepresenting quotes as opinions, is
never excusable. Unless the rest is funny, entertaining, or at least
contains some token tech content.

PROVEN: Aluminum is better than steel!
<https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext>

> Tom, the world looks to you for guidance. You know, you probably know
> more than the scientists. They've said that. You have some sort of
> natural instinct for science. You know, if you hadn't been a tech of some
> sort, you could have been a great scientist.

I doubt that Tom K. gets irony. I'm afraid he was also obstructed, due to
personal trade manipulations by George Soros, from making another handful of
billions by shorting the crap out of everything a few days earlier than the
stupid herd.


--
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Rolf Mantel]

Am 10.03.2020 um 01:34 schrieb Tom Kunich:
> On Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:14:01 PM UTC-7, Sepp Ruf wrote:
>> They're not breathing enough, they need oxygen.
>>
>> Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama.
>> Because that's the difference (now I'll go down a little bit in the
>> technical): in classical flu, apart from infecting much less
>> population over several months, cases can be complicated less
>> frequently, only when the VIRUS destroying the protective barriers
>> of our airways allows BACTERIA normally
>
> Sepp, excuse me but are you in medicine? MOST flu is rapid onset.
>
> Why was no one interested in the polio-like disease that swept
> through the world during Obama's time in office? One of the really
> fast guys I used to ride with became a complete paralytic. He
> couldn't even feed himself. Last I heard he was finally making a
> come-back from it and was trying to ride again. That is a hell of a
> long time without the ability to even walk.

Never heared of that, but the first case of ASM in California was 2012,
pre-Obama. 120 heavy cases in California in 2014 (out of which 10
fatal) is also not exactly "sweeping the world".
Also, the D68 virus responsible for this disease seems to be a lot more
agressive in the USA (512 cases of ASM since 2012) than in Europe (29
cases of ASM out of 17000 infected).

[Andre Jute]

On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 1:27:43 AM UTC, pH wrote:
>
> So far it all seems to be a test run on how compliant the populace is in general to do as they are told. It seems odd to me the the entire world is going along with it and behaving as though it is the "Andromeda Strain" unless there is much more going on here than meets the eye.
>
> pH in Aptos

Just yesterday we were discussing the runs on the shops here, panic-buying, and someone mentioned the government rationing supplies. I immediately said, "That's wishful thinking. The Irish are a nation of scofflaws. It's unlikely that they'll wear it, and even if they do, the pols know there will be a serious political price to pay."

A bit later I was discussing the Australian grand prix with someone else, who explained that very likely they'll take the temperature of every member of the public entering the stands. I could just see any number of Australian hooligans, already half-cut, being obstreperous about it.

Andre Jute
People differ

[Tom Kunich]

I was trolling Jay. But I think he's mad at me for suspecting that he thinks that a cough comes out of nowhere and has no sputum.

I can tell that I'm over the hump now and the main problem I have now is that I can't get rid of the slight swelling in my jaw from the implant. From memory which is often faulty, this happened last implant also and I needed a stronger antibiotic which worked in about one day.

[Tom Kunich]

Jay - this isn't funny. It is called Acute Flaccid Myelitis and is quite real.
The references I find on it infer that it only occurs in children but Gil is about 15 years younger than me.

[Tom Kunich]

I realize that you being an idiot you can't read the reports from the CDC but unless you're 60 or older you probably won't even know you have it. it will act like a mild cold. WHO made the strange claim yesterday that children 15 and younger don't appear to even get it. If that is so, they will quite rapidly have a cure for it. But I really doubt it.

Do you actually think that this is a Chinese disease and not simply one that appeared in China initially?

[Tom Kunich]

https://www.webmd.com/children/acute-flaccid-myelitis-afm-polio#1

[Tom Kunich]

If China is any indication it appears that there is a sharp downturn in fatalities after those in the worst condition die off. Those under 60 don't appear to be in any danger unless they have a serious underlying condition.

Yesterday as of around noon there had been 113,000 cases of positive id for Co-vid19. We had the "experts" telling us about exponential growth. Today there are 116,000. That is not exponential at all.

It's probably just as well they canceled the St. Patrick's day parade.

[jbeattie]

I know what it is and that's why I mentioned it. Do you think I just grabbed the letters "AFM" out of thin air?

AFM certainly isn't funny, but it is funny how you just throw-out lunatic shi*. You don't even know what your friend contracted or whether it was part of a pandemic (which it wasn't) or epidemic -- or just a one-off viral infection -- or not a virus at all. But whatever it was, it "swept through the world" during Obama's administration. Damned Obama! You crippled my friend!

-- Jay Beattie.

[AMuzi]

Are you saying that correlation is not causation?
https://www.cdc.gov/acute-flaccid-myelitis/images/afm-cases-reported.jpg
That's it, Jay, you're done. Turn in your tinfoil hat.

p.s. Or maybe not! Might be the Clinton-Bush-Obama cabal!
https://avn.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Polio-acute-flaccid-myelitis-global.jpg

The Ken Starr Report is released in spring 1997 and after
that, AFM cripples children. Coincidence?

[jbeattie]

The whole polio thing didn't work out well for the Roosevelt cabal -- FDR must have caught it while mixing-up a batch to throw in the kiddie pool.

BTW, my father was a chemist for Eli Lilly and then a sales rep in the '50s. He told me that he was THE guy who brought the first doses of Salk polio vaccine to Ory-gun, probably for the clinical trials. He wasn't a tall-tale teller, so I assume its true.

-- Jay Beattie.

[Andre Jute]

On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 4:38:28 PM UTC, Tom Kunich wrote:
>
> It's probably just as well they canceled the St. Patrick's day parade.

Confirmed cases in Ireland, 10 March 2020: 34
Confirmed cases in Ireland, 9 March 2020: 24
So, 10 new confirmed cases.
That's a 42% increase overnight.

Andre Jute
The bell curve has a tendency to ascend before it descends

[Tom Kunich]

I know what he has but that wasn't the point. And you don't seem to see the difference between two viral events occurring during Obama and them doing nothing and the New York Times calling Co-vid19, "Trump's virus".

You're getting much slower Jay. I hope this isn't a sign that you're going with Biden.

[Tom Kunich]

You cannot spread that virus that rapidly. I've been saying all along that this appears to be a historic event - how did pandemics occur throughout history? People fled areas of infection carrying it with them to areas all over the world.

So this stuff is already all over the population. People between 15 and 60 may no have any outward symptoms. Or so slight that they mistake it for a cold or the flu. So this "rapid growth curve" or as the "experts" call it - an exponential growth is complete BS. Older people tend to be more solitary so it takes some time to get into that population and so it appears to be a large fatality percentage when there's no real measurement of the infected population. In China they HAVE to be making diagnosis by symptoms because they do not have the capacity to make high level tests which would confirm Co-vid19 with the 100,000 numbers they are reporting.

[news18]

> I realize that you being an idiot you can't read the reports from the
> CDC

Considering I live in Australia and we have had a remarkedly good health
system and researchers for over a century, then no, I do not run to read
the latest waffle from the CDC-USA

> but unless you're 60 or older you probably won't even know you have
> it.

Because that is the age when it starts to significantly affect people?

Interestingly, they are saying the prime spreader is significant contact
with someone who has it, like a family member, unles you have repeated
contact in a confined situation.

> it will act like a mild cold.

That is what they are saying and why they are really worried. It will get
shared around wonderfully for the 12+ months it takes to develop a
vaccine. The med people are actually glad that it isn't as infectious as
the common flu.

> WHO made the strange claim yesterday
> that children 15 and younger don't appear to even get it.

> If that is so,
> they will quite rapidly have a cure for it.

Nope, they'll have a lot of theories and big pharma will try to get
doctors to enrol children for their trials.

> But I really doubt it.

You'd be possiby right in this case.
Last I read, there were 300+ candidates for a vaccine and just about
every 'medicine" is being touted as an ammeliorate for symptoms.

>
> Do you actually think that this is a Chinese disease and not simply one
> that appeared in China initially?

Conflation of two seperate concepts noted. Now you can discern which
returns the positive.

[news18]

On Tue, 10 Mar 2020 15:31:57 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:

> On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 3:13:48 PM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
>> On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 4:38:28 PM UTC, Tom Kunich wrote:
>> >
>> > It's probably just as well they canceled the St. Patrick's day
>> > parade.
>>
>> Confirmed cases in Ireland, 10 March 2020: 34 Confirmed cases in
>> Ireland, 9 March 2020: 24 So, 10 new confirmed cases.
>> That's a 42% increase overnight.
>>
>> Andre Jute The bell curve has a tendency to ascend before it descends
>
> You cannot spread that virus that rapidly. I've been saying all along
> that this appears to be a historic event - how did pandemics occur
> throughout history? People fled areas of infection carrying it with them
> to areas all over the world.
>
> So this stuff is already all over the population. People between 15 and
> 60 may no have any outward symptoms. Or so slight that they mistake it
> for a cold or the flu. So this "rapid growth curve" or as the "experts"
> call it - an exponential growth is complete BS.

> Older people tend to be more solitary

Boy do you have some weird stereotypes.
I know a lot of "old people" who did less when they were working and over
here, the retirement village crowd can be a significant proportion of the
bus trip tourists. I guess USians do not do much volunterring either.

[Andre Jute]

Never happen. Jay's too smart to vote for Geri-Joe Biden* so that the Dems can sneak in an undesirable failure (Kamala Harris?) as VP and then via the 25th Amendment as an unelected President as soon as Geri-Joe becomes too obviously gaga to keep on in the Oval Office.

Well, at least that's what reasonable people would expect of Jay, who as a lawyer is supposed to have respect for the Constitution.

Andre Jute
Everything is not always as it seems

*By the way, people shouldn't laugh at Geri-Joe threatening to beat up muscular, unionized, lifelong Democrat voters. We're all headed for senility sooner or later.