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Learning humility
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AMuzi
Jul 14, 2023, 8:42:54 AM7/14/23
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Last weekend, several newsy outlets proclaimed that an
aurora borealis would be visible here at just north of 43
degrees on Thursday (yesterday). They are rare this far
south but when they do occur are breathtakingly beautiful.
Decades pass between them so it's a Big Deal to see them.
I noted that and then wondered how the hell would anyone know?
Visible light from the sun arrives in roughly 8 minutes. So
any phenomenon visible here for an effect 100 to 150 hours
later would imply an exceptionally slow something following
the visual indication. What might that be?
I happen to know a retired high energy physicist and a
retired professor of subatomic physics. Both were stumped
and said they don't know anything like that. So I asked an
amateur astronomer who said he just downloads time and
position data to his telescope servo controls and doesn't
know anything about how they are determined.
The question drove me nuts for a week but casual
conversation left others bored.
Yesterday evening we had a much needed rain so skies were
cloudy. Damn. So I went online looking for photos of auroras
on east coast or England. I stumbled on to some astronomers
who clearly described solar effect predictions.
Aha! I am an idiot. Here's where I erred.
I assumed that predictions would be based on _current_ solar
storms. Not so!
Our sun revolves every 27 days. Solar storms considered
'emergent', that is, likely to increase activity, rotate to
the other not visible side and predictions are based on that
likelihood which is pretty much a wild guess as those
processes are chaotic and not predictable with much
certainty. This is a case of that. The solar surface effect
did not in fact grow much and aside from some AM car radio
disruption this week no big deal.
And I learned something.
--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971
aurora borealis would be visible here at just north of 43
degrees on Thursday (yesterday). They are rare this far
south but when they do occur are breathtakingly beautiful.
Decades pass between them so it's a Big Deal to see them.
I noted that and then wondered how the hell would anyone know?
Visible light from the sun arrives in roughly 8 minutes. So
any phenomenon visible here for an effect 100 to 150 hours
later would imply an exceptionally slow something following
the visual indication. What might that be?
I happen to know a retired high energy physicist and a
retired professor of subatomic physics. Both were stumped
and said they don't know anything like that. So I asked an
amateur astronomer who said he just downloads time and
position data to his telescope servo controls and doesn't
know anything about how they are determined.
The question drove me nuts for a week but casual
conversation left others bored.
Yesterday evening we had a much needed rain so skies were
cloudy. Damn. So I went online looking for photos of auroras
on east coast or England. I stumbled on to some astronomers
who clearly described solar effect predictions.
Aha! I am an idiot. Here's where I erred.
I assumed that predictions would be based on _current_ solar
storms. Not so!
Our sun revolves every 27 days. Solar storms considered
'emergent', that is, likely to increase activity, rotate to
the other not visible side and predictions are based on that
likelihood which is pretty much a wild guess as those
processes are chaotic and not predictable with much
certainty. This is a case of that. The solar surface effect
did not in fact grow much and aside from some AM car radio
disruption this week no big deal.
And I learned something.
--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971
Frank Krygowski
Jul 14, 2023, 11:48:31 AM7/14/23
to
former is electromagnetic radiation, traveling at, of course, the speed
of light. Auroras are caused by ions ejected by solar storms. They are
actual mass, not radiation, and they travel much slower.
Recent articles noted the aurora disappointment, and said that there had
been hopes, conditions looked good, but solar weather is trickier to
predict than earth weather.
--
- Frank Krygowski
Catrike Rider
Jul 14, 2023, 1:34:17 PM7/14/23
to
center. Much ado about nothing...
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