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Gliding risk....
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victori...@gmail.com
Oct 30, 2019, 8:49:22 PM10/30/19
to
hret...@aol.com
Oct 30, 2019, 9:54:26 PM10/30/19
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I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
Hmmm.....don’t think so.
R
Hmmm.....don’t think so.
R
Dave Nadler
Oct 30, 2019, 9:57:36 PM10/30/19
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On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:49:22 PM UTC-4, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
Interesting stats. Counts of friends I've lost a few different ways:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
- driving: 0
- motorcycle: 0
- bicycling: 1
- medical malpractice: 2
- hang-gliding (where I don't know so many): a couple
- general aviation: a few
- gliding: 25
After the first few friends I lost in gliding, I wrote this (recently reprinted in Soaring):
http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.pdf
Be careful out there,
Best Regards, Dave
Key Dismukes
Oct 30, 2019, 10:05:13 PM10/30/19
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On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
I think this is a very useful analysis. Obviously, in every sport, individuals vary greatly in the degree to which they expose themself to risk and how well they manage risk. Unfortunately, all of us pilots probably think we are way above average and thus less exposed to risk. As a community we would benefit by explicitly and systematically evaluating risks of each type of operation.
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
KD
victori...@gmail.com
Oct 30, 2019, 10:30:33 PM10/30/19
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Well, I challenge you to find any study where gliding isn’t AT LEAST as dangerous as motorcycling.
gregg...@gmail.com
Oct 30, 2019, 11:28:56 PM10/30/19
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Duster
Oct 31, 2019, 12:30:44 AM10/31/19
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>
> Interesting stats. Counts of friends I've lost a few different ways:
> - gliding: 25
>
> After the first few friends I lost in gliding, I wrote this (recently reprinted in Soaring):
> http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.pdf
>
Mr. Nadler,
>
> After the first few friends I lost in gliding, I wrote this (recently reprinted in Soaring):
> http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.pdf
>
Thanks for taking the time to write the article and the lessons it draws. Just to be on the safe side, though, how does one "unfriend" you? (just kidding).
krasw
Oct 31, 2019, 2:15:50 AM10/31/19
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I've never lost a friend in any hobby-related, driving or other accident, except one in gliding competition mid-air.
2G
Oct 31, 2019, 2:20:51 AM10/31/19
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Tom
Paul T
Oct 31, 2019, 3:15:11 AM10/31/19
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At 01:54 31 October 2019, hret...@aol.com wrote:
>I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than
=E2=
>I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than
>=80=98gliding=E2=80=99. By 100%.
>Hmmm.....don=E2=80=99t think so.=20
>R
>
Why? I have been doing both activities for 40 years plus and have lost
more friends and acquaintances to gliding (and more injured) than
motorcycling, and that included time as a London dispatch
rider........p.s. a lot of my friends and acquaintances also ride or have
ridden motorcycles around the world. Perception's are often untrue..
stop being an ostrich.
Ramy
Oct 31, 2019, 3:32:53 AM10/31/19
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This article is the most realistic yet somber risk analysis I’ve encountered so far. And those who believe that soaring is safer than motorcycling must have not been exposed to soaring long enough. In fact I believe it is much more than twice as dangerous as motorcycling.
That said, I disagree with some of the conclusions. I’ve been involved enough in hang gliding and paragliding to conclude that hey are statistically safer than soaring as long as you only count fatalities. The risk of serious injury is much higher of course.
Also comparing to skydiving and base jumping is unfair since those are very short activities measured in minutes. Most jumpers will not even get close to the 1000 hours base line comparison in their life time while most soaring pilots have a good chance to get there in a decade. Number of jumps will be a better way to compare. In my opinion number of days of participating in any activity may be a better common denominator. But the overall risk per hours of flying sounds about right to me. So for an average active glider pilot who flies an average of 100 hours per year all his life (say 50 years of flying) has about 10% chance of dying flying which indeed match the reality. About 10-20% of deceased glider pilots I knew or heard about died from soaring. This is close to the risk I believe I am taking by flying often all my life.
That said, I think the age comparison is a bit overly pessimistic. Even though I fly over 300 hours per year I would like to believe that I have better chance to survive another year than a 90+ years old in general. Or maybe not?
Ramy (trying to beat the odds after 40 years and 8000 hours of soaring hang gliders and sailplanes...)
That said, I disagree with some of the conclusions. I’ve been involved enough in hang gliding and paragliding to conclude that hey are statistically safer than soaring as long as you only count fatalities. The risk of serious injury is much higher of course.
Also comparing to skydiving and base jumping is unfair since those are very short activities measured in minutes. Most jumpers will not even get close to the 1000 hours base line comparison in their life time while most soaring pilots have a good chance to get there in a decade. Number of jumps will be a better way to compare. In my opinion number of days of participating in any activity may be a better common denominator. But the overall risk per hours of flying sounds about right to me. So for an average active glider pilot who flies an average of 100 hours per year all his life (say 50 years of flying) has about 10% chance of dying flying which indeed match the reality. About 10-20% of deceased glider pilots I knew or heard about died from soaring. This is close to the risk I believe I am taking by flying often all my life.
That said, I think the age comparison is a bit overly pessimistic. Even though I fly over 300 hours per year I would like to believe that I have better chance to survive another year than a 90+ years old in general. Or maybe not?
Ramy (trying to beat the odds after 40 years and 8000 hours of soaring hang gliders and sailplanes...)
Bob Youngblood
Oct 31, 2019, 4:19:08 AM10/31/19
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On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:49:22 PM UTC-4, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
I personally appreciate this information, having known 5 individuals that have lost their lives in gliders. Two were defined as medical casualties, heart attack or stroke in flight, both at tow release. One I define as being stupid and actually going in upside down at a high rate of speed. The other two negligent, elevator not connected and the other plane ole screwed up. Know the conditions and pay attention to detail.
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
stefan.w...@web.de
Oct 31, 2019, 5:09:28 AM10/31/19
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In all this discussion, there is one aspect missing: flying skills or level of practice
The stats imply a more or less linear risk. Meaning that the more you fly the higher is your risk and vice versa, simply because the more hours you do it, the more hours you are exposed to a certain threat.
But I’m convinced that the risk of a low time flying pilot is much higher than the one of a pilot that practices maybe one hundred hours of flying per year. Then, with an increasing amount of hours, the risk may rise up again because the longer exposure to threat outweights the slowly increasing practise.
In other words, I think with low hours the risk is high, with more practise the risk decreases and finally it rises again.
Of course I have no figures and data to proove that, but I think my feeling is not far off the truth.
The stats imply a more or less linear risk. Meaning that the more you fly the higher is your risk and vice versa, simply because the more hours you do it, the more hours you are exposed to a certain threat.
But I’m convinced that the risk of a low time flying pilot is much higher than the one of a pilot that practices maybe one hundred hours of flying per year. Then, with an increasing amount of hours, the risk may rise up again because the longer exposure to threat outweights the slowly increasing practise.
In other words, I think with low hours the risk is high, with more practise the risk decreases and finally it rises again.
Of course I have no figures and data to proove that, but I think my feeling is not far off the truth.
Glidergeek
Oct 31, 2019, 5:26:17 AM10/31/19
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Here's my research. I drive alot more than I fly. I don't know 5286 glider pilots.
In 2016, 5,286 people died in motorcycle crashes, up 5.1 percent from 5,029 in 2015, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Motorcycle fatalities have increased for the second year in a row and are at the highest level since 2008, when 5,312 people died in motorcycle crashes.
Source google
In 2016, 5,286 people died in motorcycle crashes, up 5.1 percent from 5,029 in 2015, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Motorcycle fatalities have increased for the second year in a row and are at the highest level since 2008, when 5,312 people died in motorcycle crashes.
Source google
hret...@aol.com
Oct 31, 2019, 5:49:21 AM10/31/19
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It would be interesting to know the history how the FAA came to the decision to regulate the minimum age (14) to solo gliders vs. powered aircrafts, cars, and motorcycles being at 16 or older. I am afraid if I do read the data that I will come to the fearful realization that all of you stink at being good airmen.
Here is my 320 risk list....with worst at top.
1. Motorcycles
2. Driving I-95 south anywhere south of New York.
3. Driving to/fro glider contest.
4. Eating Bubba Burgers with bacon.
5. Dumping black water without bio-hazard suit on.
6. Working off top rung of ladder.
7. Angry Mrs. R
319. Flying gliders with exceptional racing airmen.
320. Sitting on the couch waiting for death.
That ought to do it. The OP must be an insurance agent. Wait, the solicitation is coming.
This thread should be 86 for lack happy talk.
R
Here is my 320 risk list....with worst at top.
1. Motorcycles
2. Driving I-95 south anywhere south of New York.
3. Driving to/fro glider contest.
4. Eating Bubba Burgers with bacon.
5. Dumping black water without bio-hazard suit on.
6. Working off top rung of ladder.
7. Angry Mrs. R
319. Flying gliders with exceptional racing airmen.
320. Sitting on the couch waiting for death.
That ought to do it. The OP must be an insurance agent. Wait, the solicitation is coming.
This thread should be 86 for lack happy talk.
R
Jonathan St. Cloud
Oct 31, 2019, 10:38:22 AM10/31/19
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Ian Gallacher
Oct 31, 2019, 10:45:05 AM10/31/19
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Dave,
I have just read you PDF 'On Safer Soaring' I found it to be a very good
read. There are plenty of observations in regards to planning and
decision points the members at my club could learn from.
I will certainly recommend it in my next CFI's news.
>http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.
I have just read you PDF 'On Safer Soaring' I found it to be a very good
read. There are plenty of observations in regards to planning and
decision points the members at my club could learn from.
I will certainly recommend it in my next CFI's news.
>http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.
Ian Gallacher
Oct 31, 2019, 10:45:06 AM10/31/19
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Dave,
I have just read you PDF 'On Safer Soaring' I found it to be a very good
read. There are plenty of observations in regards to planning and
decision points the members at my club could learn from.
I will certainly recommend it in my next CFI's news.
>http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.
pdf
>
I have just read you PDF 'On Safer Soaring' I found it to be a very good
read. There are plenty of observations in regards to planning and
decision points the members at my club could learn from.
I will certainly recommend it in my next CFI's news.
>http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.
>
Matt Herron Jr.
Oct 31, 2019, 11:56:09 AM10/31/19
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On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
The numbers sound plausible to me. If I take them at face value, I need to personalize them to make any assessment of risk. What I care about is what are the chances of me dying in the next year of doing these things.
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
For driving, I drive about 10,000 miles/yr. Assuming an average speed of 40mph, that's 250 hrs/yr. So my risk of dying next year behind the wheel is 0.01%
For soaring I fly about 40 hrs/yr. That means my chance of dying behind the stick next year is 0.08%
For down hill mountain biking, I ride maybe 400 miles/yr @ 15mph. That's 27 hrs/yr and makes my chances of dying behind the handle bars 0.08%
Now, for risky activities I try to mitigate the risks as best I can. I will assume I have average skill at all the above activities, but I can still reduce risk through technology. I drive a larger SUV, with lots of air bags, a crumple zone, and I wear a seatbelt. I fly a glider with a safety cockpit, FLARM, ADS-b out, a Spot, an AH, and automatic hook-ups. I ride a bike with a helmet and gloves.
My conclusion is: I need to spend way more time weighing the dangers of mountain biking!!!
Matt
Dan Marotta
Oct 31, 2019, 12:04:14 PM10/31/19
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Yes, but I LOVE to fly. I never consider risks, I just keep in practice
and don't do dumb shit (any more) to mitigate those risks. Oh, and I've
been riding motorcycles for 50 years, from dirt to my present Harley.
--
Dan, 5J
and don't do dumb shit (any more) to mitigate those risks. Oh, and I've
been riding motorcycles for 50 years, from dirt to my present Harley.
Dan, 5J
jfitch
Oct 31, 2019, 12:10:10 PM10/31/19
to
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
There are many ways of looking at this, risk per hour is one. Another might be risk per year of participation. By the information in the post, my risk of dying in a glider is 2% in the next 1000 hours of participation. If I fly 100 hours in a year which might be a typical average, my chance of dying next year in a glider is 0.2%. The raw death rate in the US for my age group (55-64, also typical of glider pilots) is about 1500/100000 or 1.5% according to the latest CDC data. In other words, I am about 8 times as likely to die of something else, than in a glider.
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
You are also somewhat in control of that 0.2%. The majority of accidents in gliders are preventable, merely by allowing for more margin of error which will decrease your enjoyment of the sport but little. Nevertheless, sometimes pilots are "swatted out of the sky by the hand of fate", as two of my very good friends were two years ago.
Frank Whiteley
Oct 31, 2019, 12:21:08 PM10/31/19
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That said, the number of soaring pilots I've known that have come to grief I could count on one hand for many years. That number has jumped, but that's because I know more pilots than I did formerly. The rate has not shown much variation though. Few were racing, unless you count racing the sun or the clock.
There was an actuarial table published many years ago that listed the chance of accidental death, which was 1/1500 overall. Death in a glider was listed as 1/1800. Haven't been able to find anything similar in recent years.
So, in the years since I've quit riding/racing motorcycles, I've known only one additional fatality on a motorcycle.
Since I've been in SSA leadership and paying attention, far more glider pilots are succumbing to age and infirmities than in flight accidents. It's the company you keep.
You all fly safely and sanely now and please, only fly if you are fit to do so.
Happy landings,
Frank Whiteley
Jonathan St. Cloud
Oct 31, 2019, 12:39:43 PM10/31/19
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On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
A GREAT Read on this subject is "Fate is the Hunter". Ernest Gann.
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
Patrick Grady
Oct 31, 2019, 12:43:15 PM10/31/19
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I think it's worth adding that 80% of drivers think they are above average in skill. (https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/01/americans-willing-ride-fully-self-driving-cars/)
That same illusory superiority probably applies to gliding. Yet, crashes still happen to these "above average" pilots.
That same illusory superiority probably applies to gliding. Yet, crashes still happen to these "above average" pilots.
Dan Marotta
Oct 31, 2019, 12:57:35 PM10/31/19
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So your chance of dying in a glider is only 0.2% (or 0.02, or 0.002%).
That doesn't mean that it won't happen on the very next flight. It does
not mean that you can make 5,000 more flights and then stop just before
you kill yourself. Statistics... Fly! Enjoy!
--
Dan, 5J
That doesn't mean that it won't happen on the very next flight. It does
not mean that you can make 5,000 more flights and then stop just before
you kill yourself. Statistics... Fly! Enjoy!
Dan, 5J
2G
Oct 31, 2019, 12:59:45 PM10/31/19
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On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 9:43:15 AM UTC-7, Patrick Grady wrote:
> I think it's worth adding that 80% of drivers think they are above average in skill. (https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/01/americans-willing-ride-fully-self-driving-cars/)
>
> That same illusory superiority probably applies to gliding. Yet, crashes still happen to these "above average" pilots.
I once showed photos taken while mountain soaring in the Canadian Rockies to a guy who raced motorcycles; his reaction was that glider flying was insanely dangerous (the photos were quite dramatic). I knew otherwise, because at all times I was within safe gliding distance of landable fields. Basically, perception is not reality. The more you fly, the safer you will be (within reason), and these type of articles suggest the opposite.
> I think it's worth adding that 80% of drivers think they are above average in skill. (https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/01/americans-willing-ride-fully-self-driving-cars/)
>
> That same illusory superiority probably applies to gliding. Yet, crashes still happen to these "above average" pilots.
Tom
Ramy
Oct 31, 2019, 5:43:02 PM10/31/19
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Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.
Ramy
Ramy
Bruce Hoult
Oct 31, 2019, 7:04:46 PM10/31/19
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On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 2:43:02 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote:
> Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.
Comparing all of gliding to just recreational/commuting motorcycling seems wrong.
> Stefan you would think, but the stats show complete opposite. The majority of casualties are high time experienced pilots, including commercial and instructors. At the same time there are more students and inexperience pilots flying than high experience.
Racing is more dangerous than other forms in both activities. Motorcycle racing is just insanely dangerous. Multiple people who go to the same motorcycle shop as me in Wellington NZ have died in the annual Isle of Man races *alone*. On the other hand my gliding club with 50 to 80 members hasn't had a fatal accident since I joined it in 1985. We've lost several tow pilots doing things other than towing: for example one flying passengers commercially in the Pacific Islands, and one crop dusting in Africa.
gregg...@gmail.com
Oct 31, 2019, 7:20:55 PM10/31/19
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Bob Kuykendall
Oct 31, 2019, 7:56:24 PM10/31/19
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On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:20:55 PM UTC-7, gregg...@gmail.com wrote:
> The Isle of Mann TT is an outlier even among motorcycle racing.
Beat me to it. In my experience, racing at a well-equipped track like Sonoma (nee Sears Point) is safer than riding on the street. Everyone is going the same direction, no car is going to try to make a U-turn right in front of you, and all of the obstructions are padded. In the four years I raced at Sears Point, we only had one fatality.
> The Isle of Mann TT is an outlier even among motorcycle racing.
Craig Funston
Oct 31, 2019, 8:07:53 PM10/31/19
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2KA
Oct 31, 2019, 8:10:51 PM10/31/19
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What Ramy says is true, in the US at least. A look at NTSB accident reports shows that experienced pilots (including commercial pilots, frequent contest participants, and the like) make up a large or even the largest share of fatalities. Fatal accidents involving very low-time pilots are quite rare.
My own interpretation of this is that complacency can be a much bigger safety problem than lack of skill.
I have more than 4000 hours flown over 48 years. I think I am smack in the middle of the most dangerous demographic.
Lynn Alley
"2KA"
My own interpretation of this is that complacency can be a much bigger safety problem than lack of skill.
I have more than 4000 hours flown over 48 years. I think I am smack in the middle of the most dangerous demographic.
Lynn Alley
"2KA"
Martin Gregorie
Oct 31, 2019, 10:12:02 PM10/31/19
to
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
danlj
Oct 31, 2019, 11:56:27 PM10/31/19
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On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:57:36 PM UTC-5, Dave Nadler wrote:
Judge's career has been in coal-mining safety. Listening to the numbers, he said, "Soaring is more dangerous than coal mining."
> On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:49:22 PM UTC-4, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> > For those who haven’t seen it....
> > https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
>
> > For those who haven’t seen it....
> > https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
>
> Interesting stats. Counts of friends I've lost a few different ways:
> - driving: 0
> - motorcycle: 0
> - bicycling: 1
> - medical malpractice: 2
> - hang-gliding (where I don't know so many): a couple
> - general aviation: a few
> - gliding: 25
>
> After the first few friends I lost in gliding, I wrote this (recently reprinted in Soaring):
> http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.pdf
>
> Be careful out there,
> Best Regards, Dave
A few years ago, I sat next to Judge McWhorter during the SSA convention safety presentation, at which gliding fatalities were related to hours of exposure to risk (in flight).
> - driving: 0
> - motorcycle: 0
> - bicycling: 1
> - medical malpractice: 2
> - hang-gliding (where I don't know so many): a couple
> - general aviation: a few
> - gliding: 25
>
> After the first few friends I lost in gliding, I wrote this (recently reprinted in Soaring):
> http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.pdf
>
> Be careful out there,
> Best Regards, Dave
Judge's career has been in coal-mining safety. Listening to the numbers, he said, "Soaring is more dangerous than coal mining."
Bruce Hoult
Nov 1, 2019, 12:15:47 AM11/1/19
to
On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:56:24 PM UTC-7, Bob Kuykendall wrote:
clint....@gmail.com
Nov 1, 2019, 2:39:11 AM11/1/19
to
On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 3:54:26 AM UTC+2, hret...@aol.com wrote:
> I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
> Hmmm.....don’t think so.
> R
It depends a lot on what is included in motorcycling. If you include the millions who use scooters as their daily commute in the Far East puttering along at 30km/h, then motorcycling would be considered as pretty low risk. If you consider just the people using the motorcycle as a hobby and think of superbikes racing at crazy speeds in traffic or on mountain roads, then the statistics related to risk become very different. But even considering just superbikes, I have lost more friends gliding than motorcycling.
Clinton
> I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
> Hmmm.....don’t think so.
> R
It depends a lot on what is included in motorcycling. If you include the millions who use scooters as their daily commute in the Far East puttering along at 30km/h, then motorcycling would be considered as pretty low risk. If you consider just the people using the motorcycle as a hobby and think of superbikes racing at crazy speeds in traffic or on mountain roads, then the statistics related to risk become very different. But even considering just superbikes, I have lost more friends gliding than motorcycling.
Clinton
clint....@gmail.com
Nov 1, 2019, 2:50:46 AM11/1/19
to
> A few years ago, I sat next to Judge McWhorter during the SSA convention safety presentation, at which gliding fatalities were related to hours of exposure to risk (in flight).
> Judge's career has been in coal-mining safety. Listening to the numbers, he said, "Soaring is more dangerous than coal mining."
As somebody in the mining industry in South Africa (which has worse mining safety figures than the U.S.) - I can vouch for the fact that coal mining is pretty safe when considering the statistics.
> Judge's career has been in coal-mining safety. Listening to the numbers, he said, "Soaring is more dangerous than coal mining."
Clinton Birch
Paul T
Nov 1, 2019, 4:00:06 AM11/1/19
to
At 00:07 01 November 2019, Craig Funston wrote:
>On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:56:24 PM UTC-7, Bob
Kuykendall wrote:
>> On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:20:55 PM UTC-7,
gregg...@gmail.com
>wro=
>On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:56:24 PM UTC-7, Bob
Kuykendall wrote:
>> On Thursday, October 31, 2019 at 4:20:55 PM UTC-7,
gregg...@gmail.com
>te:
>>=20
>> > The Isle of Mann TT is an outlier even among motorcycle
racing.
>>=20
racing.
>> Beat me to it. In my experience, racing at a well-equipped track
like
>Son=
like
>oma (nee Sears Point) is safer than riding on the street. Everyone
is
>going=
is
> the same direction, no car is going to try to make a U-turn right in
>front=
> of you, and all of the obstructions are padded. In the four years I
raced
>=
raced
>at Sears Point, we only had one fatality.
>
>Indeed. I believe Isle of Mann averages just over one fatality per
year.
>In=
>
>Indeed. I believe Isle of Mann averages just over one fatality per
year.
>sanity.
>
All activities have a risk/reward element People who race the Isle of
Man know the risks and accept them, but for them the rewards in
participating in this activity outweigh the risks -if the risks are too
much for you don't do it ... but don't call people who do insane -
that's imposing your value judgement on to others..
gregg...@gmail.com
Nov 1, 2019, 10:04:12 AM11/1/19
to
Dan Marotta
Nov 1, 2019, 12:12:22 PM11/1/19
to
I'll bet those Isle of Mann racers actually DO get hot chicks and free
beer...
--
Dan, 5J
beer...
Dan, 5J
Bret Hess
Nov 1, 2019, 12:44:22 PM11/1/19
to
JFitch, I'm with you. When you're older than 50, the risk of dying in gliders per year gets down into the noise compared to dying of cancer, heart disease, etc. Conclusion: soaring is appropriately an older man's sport :).
Charlie Quebec
Nov 1, 2019, 7:12:36 PM11/1/19
to
I took up gliding when I gave up motorbikes, too many near misses on bikes, no near misses so far in gliders. If I die in a glider at least it will be my fault, not some bozo in a car doing a U turn. Go figure.
John DeRosa OHM Ω http://aviation.derosaweb.net
Nov 2, 2019, 12:01:48 PM11/2/19
to
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 8:54:26 PM UTC-5, hret...@aol.com wrote:
> I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
> Hmmm.....don’t think so.
> R
R,
> I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
> Hmmm.....don’t think so.
> R
About motorcycling versus gliding, and the former being safer, but does not seem to be that way. It is difficult not to quickly compare things without using apples to apples. Been there, done that.
I am no statistician but there are two things that spring to mind;
- How many motorcyclists are there versus glider pilots? Certainly many more.
- How many motorcycle trips (or miles) are taken in a year versus glider flights? Certainly many more.
So even if there are many more motorcycle fatalities than glider fatalities the number of FATALITIES PER TRIP (or MILE) are STATISTICALLY less for motorcyclists. Thus motorcycling is considered "safer". Hmmm, indeed.
How about car travel? Accidents are very common and we have all seen them and maybe even been in a few. On the other hand very, very few of us has even SEEN a glider accident or, thankfully, been in one. So it would SEEM that car travel is much more dangerous. Not so STATISTICALLY. There are immensely more car trips (or miles) than other forms of transportation (except airline per passenger mile) so car travel is STATISTICALLY safer than everything else.
But I would rather fly a glider than drive a car.
"Not a Stat Guy" John
Brian
Nov 3, 2019, 10:41:13 PM11/3/19
to
Most good analysis try to compare activities hour for hour. So how risky is an hour of motorcycle riding vs an hour of Gliding. This is done to as much as possible eliminate the issues pointed out about the frequency of the activity or the number of people doing it.
Most of the analysis I have done and observed seem to indicate the GA Aviation over all is has about the same risk as riding a motorcycle hour per hour. Gliders seem to be a bit worse. But as with motorcycles there are riskier kinds of activities that get lumped into the over all numbers like Low thermalling, flying in bad weather, Low finishes. So even with the overall number you can individually improve your odds depending on what kinds of risks you are willing to accept.
Brian
CFIIG/ASEL
Jonathan Foster
Nov 4, 2019, 10:04:17 AM11/4/19
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On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
I think the reactions to this article is super interesting. I posted this to my local hang gliding/paragliding club and the reactions were super similar to what has been posted here.
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
If we read this and take exception with which sport is riskier, I feel we are missing the point. My guess is most of us participate in several of these "risky" activities. The real question we should be asking is, "HOW CAN I BE SAFER AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS?".
Glidergeek
Nov 4, 2019, 10:30:24 AM11/4/19
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"HOW CAN I BE SAFER AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS?" Drink less booze don't smoke pot, and stay home on the couch! I forgot look both ways before you cross the street. Anything that is affected by gravity (and some things that aren't) has risk. Like gambling, only gamble what you're willing to loose.
Message has been deleted
Message has been deleted
arche...@gmail.com
Nov 4, 2019, 12:42:27 PM11/4/19
to
On Monday, November 4, 2019 at 7:30:24 AM UTC-8, Glidergeek wrote:
> "HOW CAN I BE SAFER AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS?" Drink less booze don't smoke pot, and stay home on the couch! I forgot look both ways before you cross the street. Anything that is affected by gravity (and some things that aren't) has risk. Like gambling, only gamble what you're willing to loose.
I'll instead avoid the personal attack. I did not expect the thread to so quickly and thoroughly support Mr. Foster's idea...
> "HOW CAN I BE SAFER AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS?" Drink less booze don't smoke pot, and stay home on the couch! I forgot look both ways before you cross the street. Anything that is affected by gravity (and some things that aren't) has risk. Like gambling, only gamble what you're willing to loose.
2G
Nov 5, 2019, 1:11:24 AM11/5/19
to
gregg...@gmail.com
Nov 5, 2019, 10:15:38 AM11/5/19
to
chip.b...@gmail.com
Nov 5, 2019, 2:24:12 PM11/5/19
to
With apologies for lack of context:
I grew up hearing my father repeat the mantra that "the most dangerous part of soaring is driving to and from the airport." He was killed in a glider crash 15 years after I soloed. Six years later, my best friend died in another crash. I’ve known 16 other casualties, plus more I never met. Last Friday, I attended the wake of #18, a good pilot about my age who was careful and controlled.
I'm SO past the "he died doing what he loved" thing. It's probably true in many cases but the pilots are still dead, leaving families and friends. And if a missing man formation makes you feel better, great, but it does nothing to bring back someone you loved or treasured as a friend.
I also knew two guys who were killed in motorcycle crashes during this time (54 years), although I have no idea how many of my friends/acquaintances ride vs. fly. I recall only one person I met who was killed in a car crash. I think comparing the risks of different activities is useful. But obviously we're not all making decisions based on minimizing risk.
There are ways to reduce the risk even in competition, which I think is probably riskier than doing rides around the gliderport. Eight of "my" 18 died at contests (44%) with another five arguably practicing for it. All were experienced, mature, high-time pilots. Medical factors may have been a factor in at least four cases but often it’s tough to make that call, although sometimes we’re tempted because it makes us feel better about the genuine risks we incur.
The safest thing is not flying at all. I’ve considered that. I’ve been away from soaring three times for multi-year periods (unrelated to risk) and come back every time after considering the pro’s and con’s. I still love soaring but the risk is always there. I’ve never been cavalier about the danger but I’m probably more careful now than I was 50 years ago. I think our community addresses safety much better than in the past. But--I concede that if soaring were 100% risk free (a la Condor, which I enjoy), it wouldn’t be as compelling. Cognitive dissonance is a wonderful thing!
Chip Bearden
JB
> This is one of the DUMBEST threads I have followed
Not dumb. Thought provoking. Anyone who hasn't considered the risks of soaring is in denial.
I grew up hearing my father repeat the mantra that "the most dangerous part of soaring is driving to and from the airport." He was killed in a glider crash 15 years after I soloed. Six years later, my best friend died in another crash. I’ve known 16 other casualties, plus more I never met. Last Friday, I attended the wake of #18, a good pilot about my age who was careful and controlled.
I'm SO past the "he died doing what he loved" thing. It's probably true in many cases but the pilots are still dead, leaving families and friends. And if a missing man formation makes you feel better, great, but it does nothing to bring back someone you loved or treasured as a friend.
I also knew two guys who were killed in motorcycle crashes during this time (54 years), although I have no idea how many of my friends/acquaintances ride vs. fly. I recall only one person I met who was killed in a car crash. I think comparing the risks of different activities is useful. But obviously we're not all making decisions based on minimizing risk.
There are ways to reduce the risk even in competition, which I think is probably riskier than doing rides around the gliderport. Eight of "my" 18 died at contests (44%) with another five arguably practicing for it. All were experienced, mature, high-time pilots. Medical factors may have been a factor in at least four cases but often it’s tough to make that call, although sometimes we’re tempted because it makes us feel better about the genuine risks we incur.
The safest thing is not flying at all. I’ve considered that. I’ve been away from soaring three times for multi-year periods (unrelated to risk) and come back every time after considering the pro’s and con’s. I still love soaring but the risk is always there. I’ve never been cavalier about the danger but I’m probably more careful now than I was 50 years ago. I think our community addresses safety much better than in the past. But--I concede that if soaring were 100% risk free (a la Condor, which I enjoy), it wouldn’t be as compelling. Cognitive dissonance is a wonderful thing!
Chip Bearden
JB
Bob Kuykendall
Nov 5, 2019, 4:12:43 PM11/5/19
to
On Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 11:24:12 AM UTC-8, chip....@gmail.com wrote:
> With apologies for lack of context:
> > This is one of the DUMBEST threads I have followed
>
> Not dumb. Thought provoking. Anyone who hasn't considered the risks of soaring is in denial...
> With apologies for lack of context:
> > This is one of the DUMBEST threads I have followed
>
All well said, Chip.
AS
Nov 5, 2019, 5:36:39 PM11/5/19
to
Out of curiosity: is this a unique American issue? How does the US compare to other soaring nations? Maybe we can learn something from a comparison.
Does anyone have data on that?
Uli
'AS'
chip.b...@gmail.com
Nov 5, 2019, 7:12:30 PM11/5/19
to
> Out of curiosity: is this a unique American issue? How does the US compare to other soaring nations? Maybe we can learn something from a comparison.
> Does anyone have data on that?
>
> Uli
> 'AS'
I don't know, Uli. IIRC, top pilot Bruno Gantenbrink of Germany was the first to publicly address the fallacy of the "most dangerous part of soaring" so I suspect the U.S. is not the only place where the data conflict with what we'd like to believe. His insightful speech, published in Aerokurier more than 25 years ago, is on the DG site and should be required reading for all of us in the sport, but especially cross-country and competition pilots.
> Does anyone have data on that?
>
> Uli
> 'AS'
https://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/en/library/safety-comes-first
More thought-provoking reading on the same subject is Aussie Bruce Taylor's account of a day at our Nationals at Nephi a few years ago. I heard this top pilot speak about it the next morning at the pilots' meeting and I wish everyone could have been there:
https://glidingaustralia.org/mag/GA32.pdf
If there are lessons to be learned from other countries, we should seek them out. Perhaps someone could look at the data.
Chip Bearden
JB
Eric Greenwell
Nov 5, 2019, 7:59:32 PM11/5/19
to
chip.b...@gmail.com wrote on 11/5/2019 4:12 PM:
>> Out of curiosity: is this a unique American issue? How does the US compare to other soaring nations? Maybe we can learn something from a comparison.
>> Does anyone have data on that?
>>
>> Uli
>> 'AS'
>
> I don't know, Uli. IIRC, top pilot Bruno Gantenbrink of Germany was the first to publicly address the fallacy of the "most dangerous part of soaring" so I suspect the U.S. is not the only place where the data conflict with what we'd like to believe. His insightful speech, published in Aerokurier more than 25 years ago, is on the DG site and should be required reading for all of us in the sport, but especially cross-country and competition pilots.
>
> https://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/en/library/safety-comes-first
>
> More thought-provoking reading on the same subject is Aussie Bruce Taylor's account of a day at our Nationals at Nephi a few years ago. I heard this top pilot speak about it the next morning at the pilots' meeting and I wish everyone could have been there:
>
> https://glidingaustralia.org/mag/GA32.pdf
Woof! That was hair raiser - 600 feet AGL over the far side of the moon. I don't
>> Out of curiosity: is this a unique American issue? How does the US compare to other soaring nations? Maybe we can learn something from a comparison.
>> Does anyone have data on that?
>>
>> Uli
>> 'AS'
>
> I don't know, Uli. IIRC, top pilot Bruno Gantenbrink of Germany was the first to publicly address the fallacy of the "most dangerous part of soaring" so I suspect the U.S. is not the only place where the data conflict with what we'd like to believe. His insightful speech, published in Aerokurier more than 25 years ago, is on the DG site and should be required reading for all of us in the sport, but especially cross-country and competition pilots.
>
> https://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/en/library/safety-comes-first
>
> More thought-provoking reading on the same subject is Aussie Bruce Taylor's account of a day at our Nationals at Nephi a few years ago. I heard this top pilot speak about it the next morning at the pilots' meeting and I wish everyone could have been there:
>
> https://glidingaustralia.org/mag/GA32.pdf
like to be that low when I enter the pattern.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
JS
Nov 5, 2019, 11:10:57 PM11/5/19
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I was in Hong Kong the day Bruce nearly landed on the moon, but got the full report when he picked me up at SLC.
We're all capable of getting in trouble, and need to be aware of that.
Jim
We're all capable of getting in trouble, and need to be aware of that.
Jim
Ramy
Nov 5, 2019, 11:56:36 PM11/5/19
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Thanks Chip for the very thoughtful, honest and well written post, as well as the link to Bruce’s article. I needed to read this. Going forward I am going to try to keep track of how many holes left ahead of me in my Swiss cheese and not get too close to the last hole.
Ramy
Ramy
Jonathan St. Cloud
Nov 6, 2019, 8:32:46 AM11/6/19
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On Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 4:12:30 PM UTC-8, chip....@gmail.com wrote:
Tango Eight
Nov 6, 2019, 8:36:21 AM11/6/19
to
On Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 11:56:36 PM UTC-5, Ramy wrote:
> Going forward I am going to try to keep track of how many holes left ahead of me in my Swiss cheese and not get too close to the last hole.
My $0.02: I think that is /exactly/ the way that experienced guys like Bruce get into trouble. What's missing from that article: a determination to have a specific landing option that one can glide to, /especially/ in tiger country. This is basic XC stuff. Risk management means breaking the chain of events that lead to an accident or scary situation early. You accept the cost of a slow climb, detour (for weather, landability, etc.) and get on with your day.
> Going forward I am going to try to keep track of how many holes left ahead of me in my Swiss cheese and not get too close to the last hole.
Accidents and bad scares we've had in my club have been 80% due to inadequate XC risk management. Most of that 80% consists of lower experience guys misunderstanding how the more experienced guys do this (i.e. with discipline).
T8
stu8...@gmail.com
Nov 6, 2019, 9:12:51 AM11/6/19
to
Wow, 6k hour pilot flying over unlandable with a vague idea of how to get to a place to land. Then virga playing Packman with the energy source, then delayed decision making, then a really focused low save.
Kudos for telling the story.
I've flown only a few contests and also have flown that area. I've always tried to fly with at least one specific landing point in the computer telling me the arrival altitude will be above some safety altitude. Sometimes, that tether causes non-optimal flight paths from a racing perspective. Maybe the tether doesn't work because of unexpected sink or a deyhdrated pilot, but when it fails I'm at least on the way to the safety point having started with enough energy to get there in theory.
Was this 6k pilot flying without a defined tether, and is this normal for competition flying?
Kudos for telling the story.
I've flown only a few contests and also have flown that area. I've always tried to fly with at least one specific landing point in the computer telling me the arrival altitude will be above some safety altitude. Sometimes, that tether causes non-optimal flight paths from a racing perspective. Maybe the tether doesn't work because of unexpected sink or a deyhdrated pilot, but when it fails I'm at least on the way to the safety point having started with enough energy to get there in theory.
Was this 6k pilot flying without a defined tether, and is this normal for competition flying?
John Cochrane
Nov 6, 2019, 9:26:36 AM11/6/19
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The facts seem pretty clear
- Bad news: on a per hour basis, soaring is pretty risky
-Good news: the risks are not of the Russian-roulette type, how many barrels are loaded. The risk is primarily that you or I will do something dumb. Gliding is inherently quite safe. No engine = no engine failure, no engine fire, etc. Unforseeable mechanical failures and mid-air collisions outside of competition are really really rare. So what risks you face are entirely a question of how you approach decision-making.
- We all say we're going to make great decisions, but even the apparently safest and most careful pilots are often capable of making bad decisions.
- There is little correlation between the ability to fly fast and to fly safely. And people (like me) who talk a lot about safety on the ground are often just as prone to temptation in the air as others.
It's often expressed awkwardly. Yes, in the back row at every funeral we mutter, "well, I wouldn't do something that dumb." That keeps us going to get back in the air. Perhaps a better attitude is, I would, and probably will, unless I get really really careful and recognize my own susceptibility to temptation.
John Cochrane BB
- Bad news: on a per hour basis, soaring is pretty risky
-Good news: the risks are not of the Russian-roulette type, how many barrels are loaded. The risk is primarily that you or I will do something dumb. Gliding is inherently quite safe. No engine = no engine failure, no engine fire, etc. Unforseeable mechanical failures and mid-air collisions outside of competition are really really rare. So what risks you face are entirely a question of how you approach decision-making.
- We all say we're going to make great decisions, but even the apparently safest and most careful pilots are often capable of making bad decisions.
- There is little correlation between the ability to fly fast and to fly safely. And people (like me) who talk a lot about safety on the ground are often just as prone to temptation in the air as others.
It's often expressed awkwardly. Yes, in the back row at every funeral we mutter, "well, I wouldn't do something that dumb." That keeps us going to get back in the air. Perhaps a better attitude is, I would, and probably will, unless I get really really careful and recognize my own susceptibility to temptation.
John Cochrane BB
uneekc...@gmail.com
Nov 6, 2019, 9:35:50 AM11/6/19
to
Very good synopsis John, Well said, thoughtful and concise enough to keep in mind while on task.
Jonathan St. Cloud
Nov 6, 2019, 11:13:50 AM11/6/19
to
jfitch
Nov 6, 2019, 11:21:08 AM11/6/19
to
On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 6:12:51 AM UTC-8, stu8...@gmail.com wrote:
> Maybe the tether doesn't work because of unexpected sink or a deyhdrated pilot, but when it fails I'm at least on the way to the safety point having started with enough energy to get there in theory.
>
I don't believe in "unexpected sink". Sink always finds me, and it finds everyone eventually. Flying over rocks with a landing site at max L/D away (even with your safety margin set to 800 or 1000) will eventually land you in those rocks, at least out west. This is what I was talking about in leaving enough margin for error.
>
chip.b...@gmail.com
Nov 6, 2019, 12:31:59 PM11/6/19
to
I'm not sure it comes across quite so clearly in his article but Bruce Taylor was unequivocal the morning after his flight that he had made a series of bad decisions that nearly led to a serious accident. It was a complete mea culpa; there was absolutely no attempt to justify his actions, no rationalization, no spin (no pun intended), and no bits of humor thrown in to lighten the mood. That's one reason why his talk was so sobering and impactful and the reception he got during the pilots' meeting and long after was so respectful.
Clearly he's a very, very good pilot. But he owned up to his mistakes 100%. Many of us thanked him in the days afterward and more than a few of us, I suspect, encouraged him to write the article so that more pilots could learn from his experience. I can also confirm that his voice sounded very calm, though serious, when he radioed in the blind to announce his predicament that afternoon. I had just come through that area not long before and seen how difficult was the terrain. His escape from that low point under tremendous pressure is a remarkable tribute to the man but so is the way he handled himself afterward.
I don't know Bruce well at all but, yeah, I'm a fan.
Chip Bearden
JB
Clearly he's a very, very good pilot. But he owned up to his mistakes 100%. Many of us thanked him in the days afterward and more than a few of us, I suspect, encouraged him to write the article so that more pilots could learn from his experience. I can also confirm that his voice sounded very calm, though serious, when he radioed in the blind to announce his predicament that afternoon. I had just come through that area not long before and seen how difficult was the terrain. His escape from that low point under tremendous pressure is a remarkable tribute to the man but so is the way he handled himself afterward.
I don't know Bruce well at all but, yeah, I'm a fan.
Chip Bearden
JB
jpg...@gmail.com
Nov 6, 2019, 12:44:35 PM11/6/19
to
On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 2:26:36 PM UTC, John Cochrane wrote:
> The facts seem pretty clear
>
> - Bad news: on a per hour basis, soaring is pretty risky
>
> -Good news: the risks are not of the Russian-roulette type, how many barrels are loaded. The risk is primarily that you or I will do something dumb. Gliding is inherently quite safe.
I am a pessimist and have a different personal perspective on my own gliding safety. In my view every time I take a launch in a glider it will end in my fatality unless I prevent it. (Proof - put a dummy in a glider and launch it.)
> The facts seem pretty clear
>
> - Bad news: on a per hour basis, soaring is pretty risky
>
> -Good news: the risks are not of the Russian-roulette type, how many barrels are loaded. The risk is primarily that you or I will do something dumb. Gliding is inherently quite safe.
Fortunately the actions to prevent that are pretty simple and vary according to the phase of flight. 1) Make sure the glider is airworthy and think out the launch emergency plan in advance. 2) If the wing hits the ground on a winch launch release immediately. 3) If you cant keep adequate control and position on an aerotow release immediately put the stick forward and follow the emergency plan. 4) In free flight *look out* and do not hit another glider - or a mountainside. 5) Fly accurately at all times and if anything whatsoever surprising ever happens in any turn then put the stick forward to unload the wing immediately - or better still sooner than that - then think. 6) Always have an realistic plan about where to land if something goes goes wrong with the soaring (or the engine doesn't start). 7) Never find yourself "holding the nose up" when close to the ground or on an aerotow (not the same as appropriate raising the nose to slow down) because that means the stick is being held back, the angle of attack is too high and you are in risk of being an unfortunate statistic. 8) Actively monitor the airspeed and attitude during the turn to finals and give it an extra few knots.
The underlying principles are preparation, not hitting anything, constant awareness of the angle of attack relative to the stall, and situational awareness.
Yes, I have broken a glider (in an unexpectedly long grass field landing) and, yes, I am aware that I have just jinxed myself by writing this.
uneekc...@gmail.com
Nov 6, 2019, 2:34:02 PM11/6/19
to
“Proof - put a dummy in a glider and launch it.”
We see many “dummies being launched each week, and they’re not maniquines but real dumb flesh n blood.
We see many “dummies being launched each week, and they’re not maniquines but real dumb flesh n blood.
dbra...@gmail.com
Nov 6, 2019, 5:35:12 PM11/6/19
to
Another good article is this one by Martin Hellman:
https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/soaring/PASCO_2007_talk.html
In particular, I thought this quote was interesting for self assessment.
"Many years ago, I heard an expert on industrial safety give a talk in which he noted that for every fatality, there were roughly ten injury accidents; for every injury accident, there were roughly ten property damage accidents; and for every property damage accidents, there were about ten "scares" or near accidents"
https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/soaring/PASCO_2007_talk.html
In particular, I thought this quote was interesting for self assessment.
"Many years ago, I heard an expert on industrial safety give a talk in which he noted that for every fatality, there were roughly ten injury accidents; for every injury accident, there were roughly ten property damage accidents; and for every property damage accidents, there were about ten "scares" or near accidents"
dtarm...@gmail.com
Nov 6, 2019, 6:34:02 PM11/6/19
to
^That's the best response in this whole thread.
Ramy
Nov 6, 2019, 6:40:32 PM11/6/19
to
I think the dilemma each cross country and contest pilot has to deal with every now and then is how much lowering the margins is acceptable. Whether we willing to admit it or not, we all lowering our margins and increasing risk every now and then to prevent a guaranteed landout. I believe this what happened to Bruce. When everything goes great and we cruise at 17K we don’t need to track landout options since there are plenty in glide , even in the western deserts. As we get lower we start tracking landout options along the intended course line. As we get further lower we start picking the best landout option. The real problem start when we finding enough lift or indication of lift further ahead and need to decide between staying within safe glide of the last good option we just past in dead air and pretty much guarantee a landout and possible a long painful retrieve, or keep pushing into what we believe is better air while lowering the margin or switching over to some unknown and potential problematic fields, but under nice looking Cu/ circling birds/ gliders/dust devil etc. So while we increase the risk of damage or difficult retrieve, we reduce the chance of landout as we heading into lift. Most of the time this works but once in a while it doesn’t. The hard limit in my opinion is to always have in glide at least something that looks reasonably landable and preferably in the database, while trying to never get to a situation in which a low save will not just save your flight but will also save your life. don’t get into a tunnel vision where the only option you can think of is keep going into the unknown hoping you’ll find something better. We actually had a webinar on this subject recently.
Ramy
Ramy
uncl...@ix.netcom.com
Nov 6, 2019, 7:06:04 PM11/6/19
to
On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 6:40:32 PM UTC-5, Ramy wrote:
> I think the dilemma each cross country and contest pilot has to deal with every now and then is how much lowering the margins is acceptable. Whether we willing to admit it or not, we all lowering our margins and increasing risk every now and then to prevent a guaranteed landout. I believe this what happened to Bruce. When everything goes great and we cruise at 17K we don’t need to track landout options since there are plenty in glide , even in the western deserts. As we get lower we start tracking landout options along the intended course line. As we get further lower we start picking the best landout option. The real problem start when we finding enough lift or indication of lift further ahead and need to decide between staying within safe glide of the last good option we just past in dead air and pretty much guarantee a landout and possible a long painful retrieve, or keep pushing into what we believe is better air while lowering the margin or switching over to some unknown and potential problematic fields, but under nice looking Cu/ circling birds/ gliders/dust devil etc. So while we increase the risk of damage or difficult retrieve, we reduce the chance of landout as we heading into lift. Most of the time this works but once in a while it doesn’t. The hard limit in my opinion is to always have in glide at least something that looks reasonably landable and preferably in the database, while trying to never get to a situation in which a low save will not just save your flight but will also save your life. don’t get into a tunnel vision where the only option you can think of is keep going into the unknown hoping you’ll find something better. We actually had a webinar on this subject recently.
>
> Ramy
I have observed that, over time, people dip into the margins they were taught. They become comfortable with the new lower margin.
> I think the dilemma each cross country and contest pilot has to deal with every now and then is how much lowering the margins is acceptable. Whether we willing to admit it or not, we all lowering our margins and increasing risk every now and then to prevent a guaranteed landout. I believe this what happened to Bruce. When everything goes great and we cruise at 17K we don’t need to track landout options since there are plenty in glide , even in the western deserts. As we get lower we start tracking landout options along the intended course line. As we get further lower we start picking the best landout option. The real problem start when we finding enough lift or indication of lift further ahead and need to decide between staying within safe glide of the last good option we just past in dead air and pretty much guarantee a landout and possible a long painful retrieve, or keep pushing into what we believe is better air while lowering the margin or switching over to some unknown and potential problematic fields, but under nice looking Cu/ circling birds/ gliders/dust devil etc. So while we increase the risk of damage or difficult retrieve, we reduce the chance of landout as we heading into lift. Most of the time this works but once in a while it doesn’t. The hard limit in my opinion is to always have in glide at least something that looks reasonably landable and preferably in the database, while trying to never get to a situation in which a low save will not just save your flight but will also save your life. don’t get into a tunnel vision where the only option you can think of is keep going into the unknown hoping you’ll find something better. We actually had a webinar on this subject recently.
>
> Ramy
Then they slip a bit more.
Eventually they either figure out they are going too far, somebody calls them out, or they scare themselves or even crash.
I regularly observe contest pilots flying low patterns. If I see a pilot doing this regularly, I know too low is their normal. I'll have a talk and explain what I'm seeing and why I'm concerned. Without exception they are appreciative of my taking the time to raise a warning flag. Most can later be seen to be flying more safely. Over the years, two did not take the suggestion to heart and had low pattern accidents. My success rate so far is about 90%.
I've also called pilots circling low and asked them to give up and land. I have offered to buy their next tow.
Peer pressure and constructive intervention can be a useful safety tool.
FWIW
UH
Dave Nadler
Nov 6, 2019, 7:48:42 PM11/6/19
to
On Wednesday, November 6, 2019 at 7:06:04 PM UTC-5, uncl...@ix.netcom.com wrote:
> I have observed that, over time, people dip into the margins they were taught.
> They become comfortable with the new lower margin.
> Then they slip a bit more.
Yep, "normalization of deviance".
> I have observed that, over time, people dip into the margins they were taught.
> They become comfortable with the new lower margin.
> Then they slip a bit more.
We lost a space shuttle this way.
> Eventually they either figure out they are going too far,
> somebody calls them out, or they scare themselves or even crash.
and encourage others to lower their margins. Then call them wimps
if they don't.
Thanks Hank!
bobp...@gmail.com
Nov 7, 2019, 8:33:41 AM11/7/19
to
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 9:54:26 PM UTC-4, hret...@aol.com wrote:
> I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
> Hmmm.....don’t think so.
> R
Since 1980ies motorcycle fatalities have increased 20x!!! These and open cockpit high CG ATVs have become the redneck population control method. States still allow these Neanderthals to ride without helmets. Now motocross, an entire whole another story, few fatalities, break every long bone, but you are in control and not at the mercy of some 20/400 vision Buick/Caddy driving nonagenarian cleared by his ophthalmologist.
> I quit reading when the data presented listed motorcycling safer than ‘gliding’. By 100%.
> Hmmm.....don’t think so.
> R
Since 1980ies motorcycle fatalities have increased 20x!!! These and open cockpit high CG ATVs have become the redneck population control method. States still allow these Neanderthals to ride without helmets. Now motocross, an entire whole another story, few fatalities, break every long bone, but you are in control and not at the mercy of some 20/400 vision Buick/Caddy driving nonagenarian cleared by his ophthalmologist.
2G
Nov 7, 2019, 10:22:48 PM11/7/19
to
On Tuesday, November 5, 2019 at 11:24:12 AM UTC-8, chip....@gmail.com wrote:
That would be nice if that was the intent of this thread, but it isn't. It is entirely about making you feel anxious about flying. I don't particularly care whether flying is more or less dangerous than motorcycle riding because I don't ride motorcycles. And, even if I did, how would that make me be a safer pilot? I gave up flying in site contests (OLC is different) because I was almost killed in one, and decided the benefit didn't justify the risk. Some pilots become very aggressive while flying in a contest.
Tom
gregg...@gmail.com
Nov 8, 2019, 10:58:20 AM11/8/19
to
cara...@gmail.com
Nov 8, 2019, 11:21:18 AM11/8/19
to
I grew up racing motocross in Michigan, no learning in an ASK21 in CAPat age 60..
But motocross has fatalities, tracks are much more technical and the the bikes are phenomenal. Speed is way up
https://thumpertalk.com/forums/topic/246342-deaths-in-motocross/
But motocross has fatalities, tracks are much more technical and the the bikes are phenomenal. Speed is way up
https://thumpertalk.com/forums/topic/246342-deaths-in-motocross/
chip.b...@gmail.com
Nov 8, 2019, 1:02:03 PM11/8/19
to
On Thursday, November 7, 2019 at 10:22:48 PM UTC-5, 2G wrote:
>
> That would be nice if that was the intent of this thread, but it isn't. It is entirely about making you feel anxious about flying. I don't particularly care whether flying is more or less dangerous than motorcycle riding because I don't ride motorcycles. And, even if I did, how would that make me be a safer pilot? I gave up flying in site contests (OLC is different) because I was almost killed in one, and decided the benefit didn't justify the risk. Some pilots become very aggressive while flying in a contest.
>
> Tom
Tom,
>
> That would be nice if that was the intent of this thread, but it isn't. It is entirely about making you feel anxious about flying. I don't particularly care whether flying is more or less dangerous than motorcycle riding because I don't ride motorcycles. And, even if I did, how would that make me be a safer pilot? I gave up flying in site contests (OLC is different) because I was almost killed in one, and decided the benefit didn't justify the risk. Some pilots become very aggressive while flying in a contest.
>
> Tom
I wouldn't ordinarily get involved in tussling with you on something like this but since I used one of your posts as my entree, I'll make an exception.
None of us really knows what the true intent of the thread was because we're not the original poster. But the way I read it, he had two points. First, people tend to ignore the risks of things they want to do so they won't stress about them. Second, the risks of soaring are higher than many of us want to admit.
It doesn't necessarily follow that the OP wanted us to "feel anxious about flying." That's your interpretation. I like to think he wanted us to make intelligent, reasoned choices based on the facts. This thread has helped in that regard. "Anxious" is defined as "experiencing worry, unease, or nervousness." Yup. I'm nervous at times when I fly. Sometimes I'm uneasy. I never take flying for granted. I still fly because I love it even though I know it's more risky than flying Condor or driving to the theater.
It's often easier for us to understand risk using benchmarks and comparisons. As many have said, the least risky thing is to stay home--but even that's not risk-free. Comparing the risk of soaring to other activities and to simply getting older can help us understand and weigh the risk of flying. That's useful.
I disagree that understanding the risks of soaring won't make us better pilots. Knowing I could get killed any number of ways in a glider has helped me be a safer pilot. The risks I'm willing to tolerate might be different than for other pilots and certainly non-pilots.
For example, you've chosen to restrict yourself to certain types of soaring based on your personal knowledge of the risks of contest flying. If you did fly a contest, I suspect you'd be anxious. If someone approached me about flying their first contest, I'd want them to understand the risks, which I agree are higher than just flying cross country and certainly higher than doing rides around the airport.
Chip Bearden
JB
Dan Marotta
Nov 8, 2019, 1:52:42 PM11/8/19
to
Not always Harleys. I'd say crotch rockets are a bigger threat from my
observation. I recall a young guy at work who told me he'd ridden his
super bike at 180 mph on I-81 south of Syracuse. I wonder if he's still
alive...
--
Dan, 5J
observation. I recall a young guy at work who told me he'd ridden his
super bike at 180 mph on I-81 south of Syracuse. I wonder if he's still
alive...
Dan, 5J
uneekc...@gmail.com
Nov 8, 2019, 5:18:21 PM11/8/19
to
Chip
I heard a really useful axiom awhile back. It was in an interview of one of the founding engineers of the X-plane/X15 program. When questioned about the differences between the approach they took during those heated-space/aviation race days of the cold war and the more cerebral go slow pace of later test flying. This guy called what they did earlier as “Educated Courage”, meaning, yes they were involved in risky business but they entered those risks thoughtfully with preparation and built in contingencies.
It does take a level of courage needed in the pursuit of certain goals, in our case that being xc or contest flying. Without courage and just operating from “thoughtfulness” and a guy could consider venturing off anywhere beyond gliding distance of home as foolhardy. Or flying in a gaggle with 10 other guys all flying within a few hundred feet of each other sounds like a recipe for trouble. But when thoughtful preparation, common sense precautions and contingencies are joined up with a measure of courage, great things, enjoyment, and accomplishment can result.
I have gone thru my big dollar high performance phase of soaring, but have jumped into a different pond of challenge, namely, trying to do great things in low performance machines. In order to do this, I have to ask things of my bird and my own abilities way beyond the norm, not having the L/D to get me free of trouble areas etc. As a result, it takes gobbs of courage, just ask Daniel Sazhin or Ron Schwartz who ran the ridges in their
1-26’s to put up some of the first few 1000k 1-26 flights. Without courage they could never have even gotten started.
But given the need for courage, what comes along with it is the need for a whole bunch of Thoughtfulness. Read study, knowledge gained from numerous failed attempts, having well defined and adhered-to personal minimums. I spend way more energy and flight time working on the skills needed to safely stretch into this challenging low performance flying than I do one the record attempts. In my case it involves lots and lots of low level and weak wx flying, and very short small off field landing simulation. This is all done to perfect and sharpen my skills, skills that are essential for reaching my goals. In three years of pursuing low performance records, I have made over 20 off field landings. Not airports or grass strips, but actual farm fields, roads, unoccupied parking lots etc. Have I learned things? Absolutely. Was I ever scared, absolutely not. Concerned? Yes, but never fearing for life or limb. In it all I have not hurt my bird in any way, a few scraps on the fusalage bottom is all.
Put the package together and you can have success without falling either into the “chicken little” syndrome or the other end of the spectrum, namely foolhardy confidence.
FWIW
Dan
I heard a really useful axiom awhile back. It was in an interview of one of the founding engineers of the X-plane/X15 program. When questioned about the differences between the approach they took during those heated-space/aviation race days of the cold war and the more cerebral go slow pace of later test flying. This guy called what they did earlier as “Educated Courage”, meaning, yes they were involved in risky business but they entered those risks thoughtfully with preparation and built in contingencies.
It does take a level of courage needed in the pursuit of certain goals, in our case that being xc or contest flying. Without courage and just operating from “thoughtfulness” and a guy could consider venturing off anywhere beyond gliding distance of home as foolhardy. Or flying in a gaggle with 10 other guys all flying within a few hundred feet of each other sounds like a recipe for trouble. But when thoughtful preparation, common sense precautions and contingencies are joined up with a measure of courage, great things, enjoyment, and accomplishment can result.
I have gone thru my big dollar high performance phase of soaring, but have jumped into a different pond of challenge, namely, trying to do great things in low performance machines. In order to do this, I have to ask things of my bird and my own abilities way beyond the norm, not having the L/D to get me free of trouble areas etc. As a result, it takes gobbs of courage, just ask Daniel Sazhin or Ron Schwartz who ran the ridges in their
1-26’s to put up some of the first few 1000k 1-26 flights. Without courage they could never have even gotten started.
But given the need for courage, what comes along with it is the need for a whole bunch of Thoughtfulness. Read study, knowledge gained from numerous failed attempts, having well defined and adhered-to personal minimums. I spend way more energy and flight time working on the skills needed to safely stretch into this challenging low performance flying than I do one the record attempts. In my case it involves lots and lots of low level and weak wx flying, and very short small off field landing simulation. This is all done to perfect and sharpen my skills, skills that are essential for reaching my goals. In three years of pursuing low performance records, I have made over 20 off field landings. Not airports or grass strips, but actual farm fields, roads, unoccupied parking lots etc. Have I learned things? Absolutely. Was I ever scared, absolutely not. Concerned? Yes, but never fearing for life or limb. In it all I have not hurt my bird in any way, a few scraps on the fusalage bottom is all.
Put the package together and you can have success without falling either into the “chicken little” syndrome or the other end of the spectrum, namely foolhardy confidence.
FWIW
Dan
3j
Nov 8, 2019, 5:45:06 PM11/8/19
to
Tom,
You certainly gave me a big scare during a contest, when you flew
your DG-400 across the nose of the Pawnee that I was using to tow a
Ventus
You certainly gave me a big scare during a contest, when you flew
your DG-400 across the nose of the Pawnee that I was using to tow a
Ventus
BobW
Nov 8, 2019, 7:00:05 PM11/8/19
to
On 11/8/2019 3:18 PM, uneekc...@gmail.com wrote:
> ...I heard a really useful axiom awhile back. It was in an interview of
"I'm with Dan, here" (and, e.g., his reference to Daniel Sazhin and *his*
similarly nuanced posts and "Soaring" mag articles).
Never met "FWIW Dan", but the mental (and practical/physical) approaches he
tries to convey in his posts "work for me." Like him, I've only scared myself
once while indulging in this wonderul sport - it had zero to do with an
imminent landing - though there *were* (rare, entirely self-inflicted) times
when the possibility of an imminent outlanding had all my focusable senses at
what-then-seemed-to-me highest-possible-alert. That noted, I never actually
had to make a "100%-on-my-/ship-limits" off-field landing...though that one
time I seriously thought I might have to surely burned itself into my mind.
Some posters seem eager to disagree with Dan's posted words, and there
unquestionably are certain things associated with the sport 100% of us should
*never* do. Experience an uncommanded departure from controlled flight in the
landing pattern immediately springs to mind, here.
That noted, much, if not most, of the sport screams for nuanced thought, and
not rarely, nuanced practices. Seems to me that this is what Dan is attempting
to convey in many of his posts. If his posts don't "work for you," by all
means ignore his advice. But if you're able to "get a glimmer" (relating to
what I imagine he's trying to convey), keep noodling on it. It might one day
begin to make shining sense to you...at which moment you'll have attained a
new mental height which may seriously add to your enjoyment of the sport...and
personal flight skills, too. Skilled-enjoyment is what instruction and stick
time are all about.
My .02-cents.
Bob W.
---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
> ...I heard a really useful axiom awhile back. It was in an interview of
similarly nuanced posts and "Soaring" mag articles).
Never met "FWIW Dan", but the mental (and practical/physical) approaches he
tries to convey in his posts "work for me." Like him, I've only scared myself
once while indulging in this wonderul sport - it had zero to do with an
imminent landing - though there *were* (rare, entirely self-inflicted) times
when the possibility of an imminent outlanding had all my focusable senses at
what-then-seemed-to-me highest-possible-alert. That noted, I never actually
had to make a "100%-on-my-/ship-limits" off-field landing...though that one
time I seriously thought I might have to surely burned itself into my mind.
Some posters seem eager to disagree with Dan's posted words, and there
unquestionably are certain things associated with the sport 100% of us should
*never* do. Experience an uncommanded departure from controlled flight in the
landing pattern immediately springs to mind, here.
That noted, much, if not most, of the sport screams for nuanced thought, and
not rarely, nuanced practices. Seems to me that this is what Dan is attempting
to convey in many of his posts. If his posts don't "work for you," by all
means ignore his advice. But if you're able to "get a glimmer" (relating to
what I imagine he's trying to convey), keep noodling on it. It might one day
begin to make shining sense to you...at which moment you'll have attained a
new mental height which may seriously add to your enjoyment of the sport...and
personal flight skills, too. Skilled-enjoyment is what instruction and stick
time are all about.
My .02-cents.
Bob W.
---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
uneekc...@gmail.com
Nov 8, 2019, 7:12:30 PM11/8/19
to
“Skilled Enjoyment” I like that one Bob, and thanks for the post. At least I know someone is tracking with what I am always trying to communicate.
One of the caviats that I probably ought to restate here is that I fly low level for a living, being a duster pilot, and engage in low level turning all day long with very heavy loads and ridiculously high wing loading. So in regards to dealing with low level soaring saves, I do have a pretty big cash of experience with the nuances of low level flying. But that being said, I still very much need to keep highly sharp in my sailplane and that takes lots of “directed” practice. I never fly my 1-26 just to fly, I always have a mission in mind on every flight. Without that, a guy just ends up picking up bad habits, sloppy airmanship, and never progresses. Moffat had it right 50 years ago.
Dan
One of the caviats that I probably ought to restate here is that I fly low level for a living, being a duster pilot, and engage in low level turning all day long with very heavy loads and ridiculously high wing loading. So in regards to dealing with low level soaring saves, I do have a pretty big cash of experience with the nuances of low level flying. But that being said, I still very much need to keep highly sharp in my sailplane and that takes lots of “directed” practice. I never fly my 1-26 just to fly, I always have a mission in mind on every flight. Without that, a guy just ends up picking up bad habits, sloppy airmanship, and never progresses. Moffat had it right 50 years ago.
Dan
Martin Gregorie
Nov 8, 2019, 7:54:38 PM11/8/19
to
On Fri, 08 Nov 2019 16:12:28 -0800, uneekcowgirl wrote:
> I never fly
> my 1-26 just to fly, I always have a mission in mind on every flight.
> Without that, a guy just ends up picking up bad habits, sloppy
> airmanship, and never progresses. Moffat had it right 50 years ago.
>
Roger that. Always have something in mind, even if its a mini-triangle:
> I never fly
> my 1-26 just to fly, I always have a mission in mind on every flight.
> Without that, a guy just ends up picking up bad habits, sloppy
> airmanship, and never progresses. Moffat had it right 50 years ago.
>
50-100 km with the field at its centre and have that dialled into your nav
system both to check that out and to keep sharp at hitting turnpoints.
At least, thats what I do. Our field's close proximity to Class D
airspace (5500 overhead our field) and NOTAMed airspace are both good
reasons to always fly with the navsystem freshly updated. About the only
time I fly without these preparations is if its the first flight in the
season or, during winter, to stay current and knowing that even a good
winch launch is very unlikely to get me more than a 15 minute flight.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Bruce Hoult
Nov 9, 2019, 10:31:58 AM11/9/19
to
On Friday, November 8, 2019 at 10:52:42 AM UTC-8, Dan Marotta wrote:
> Not always Harleys. I'd say crotch rockets are a bigger threat from my
> observation. I recall a young guy at work who told me he'd ridden his
> super bike at 180 mph on I-81 south of Syracuse. I wonder if he's still
> alive...
Starting to ride motorcycles in middle age is definitely risky. So is starting to ride motorcycles on public roads at *any* age without first getting a good bit of experience off road and gaining muscle memory in how to handle skids and slides and maximum braking in questionable traction and how to fall off when it's inevitable. All of which is best done while you are young and pliable, but is in any event necessary at any age if you want to survive your first on-road "situation".
> Not always Harleys. I'd say crotch rockets are a bigger threat from my
> observation. I recall a young guy at work who told me he'd ridden his
> super bike at 180 mph on I-81 south of Syracuse. I wonder if he's still
> alive...
180 mph is pretty quick. I've never done that. I've driven a car and ridden a motorcycle at 160 mph on a public road. Not as a matter of habit -- just once each. There's no reason for it to be particularly risky if you pick the right place (straight bit of motorway without exits), time (4 AM midweek), and vehicle. And of course be sober. If it all goes wrong then 80 mph kills you just as dead.
markm...@gmail.com
Nov 10, 2019, 8:51:46 AM11/10/19
to
"The desire for safety stands against every great and noble enterprise."
-Publius Tacitus, Book XV
Some things are worth doing. Soaring is one of them.
-Publius Tacitus, Book XV
Some things are worth doing. Soaring is one of them.
Dan Marotta
Nov 11, 2019, 1:39:10 PM11/11/19
to
:-D!!
--
Dan, 5J
Dan, 5J
uneekc...@gmail.com
Nov 11, 2019, 1:43:25 PM11/11/19
to
“Oi Vey!”
Jonathan St. Cloud
Nov 19, 2019, 11:24:11 AM11/19/19
to
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
Something that no one addressed is how safe aviation can be. Commercial flight operations, operate under constraints of economics and time schedules, yet the carriers have an outstanding safety record. I never feel safer than when I am flying a helicopter, they don't glide well and every part has to work. Responsibility for safety in soaring and general aviation, largely lays with the pilot and even the choices made before driving to the airport. Every once in a while the breath of a zephyr will take it's fare, but that was always destined to be. After watching many shows of "Air Disaster", "Why Planes Crash"... where the ATP pilots made basic pilotage errors, I will continue to both feel and be safe, flying a glider by merely being a current engaged pilot.
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
Something that no one addressed is how safe aviation can be. Commercial flight operations, operate under constraints of economics and time schedules, yet the carriers have an outstanding safety record. I never feel safer than when I am flying a helicopter, they don't glide well and every part has to work. Responsibility for safety in soaring and general aviation, largely lays with the pilot and even the choices made before driving to the airport. Every once in a while the breath of a zephyr will take it's fare, but that was always destined to be. After watching many shows of "Air Disaster", "Why Planes Crash"... where the ATP pilots made basic pilotage errors, I will continue to both feel and be safe, flying a glider by merely being a current engaged pilot.
Dan Marotta
Nov 19, 2019, 11:33:59 AM11/19/19
to
most, if not all, of the fatal accidents are the result of poor
airmanship. There is usually a series of poor decisions leading up to
the accident and, when the accident is survived, the pilot usually makes
excuses for what happened rather than accepting the blame for his
decisions. I salute the gent who admitted to bad decisions leading to
his crash in the Nevada desert after passing many safe options. There's
only so many times you can poke the bear before you get bit. (Bad
grammar intended).
--
Dan, 5J
Jonathan St. Cloud
Nov 19, 2019, 12:13:29 PM11/19/19
to
Some airman can poke the bear more than once, but...
gregg...@gmail.com
Nov 19, 2019, 12:58:25 PM11/19/19
to
On Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 11:24:11 AM UTC-5, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
> On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> > For those who haven’t seen it....
> >
> > https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
>
> Something that no one addressed is how safe aviation can be. Commercial flight operations, operate under constraints of economics and time schedules, yet the carriers have an outstanding safety record.
Strict procedures and limited pilot autonomy. Airline pilots flying general aviation aircraft crash at about the same rate as non-pro pilots.
> On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> > For those who haven’t seen it....
> >
> > https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
>
> Something that no one addressed is how safe aviation can be. Commercial flight operations, operate under constraints of economics and time schedules, yet the carriers have an outstanding safety record.
uneekc...@gmail.com
Nov 19, 2019, 4:46:31 PM11/19/19
to
I have to retrain most airline pilots when they jump to gliders. They loose most all their stick n rudder skills. Airline guys are “pro’s” but only at airline work. I have found the flying they do has very little application to soaring.
Clemens Ceipek
Nov 21, 2019, 10:44:45 PM11/21/19
to
On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
In the three weeks since I completed the analysis that started this conversation, I have reviewed and interpreted over 250 glider accidents to try to find out why accidents really happen, how many of them are avoidable, and what each of us can to to prevent them. I've certainly learned some important lessons for my own flying in the process. I hope some of you will find it useful as well. Please read it with an open mind. Here's the link:
> For those who haven’t seen it....
>
> https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
https://chessintheair.com/does-soaring-have-to-be-so-dangerous/
Tom BravoMike
Nov 22, 2019, 12:23:53 AM11/22/19
to
2G
Nov 22, 2019, 2:17:01 AM11/22/19
to
Tom
Dave Nadler
Nov 22, 2019, 10:05:19 AM11/22/19
to
On Thursday, November 21, 2019 at 10:44:45 PM UTC-5, Clemens Ceipek wrote:
> On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> > For those who haven’t seen it....
> > https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
> https://chessintheair.com/does-soaring-have-to-be-so-dangerous/
> On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 6:49:22 PM UTC-6, victori...@gmail.com wrote:
> > For those who haven’t seen it....
> > https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-dying-doing-what-we-love/
Thanks Clemens, a great piece of work.
Probably you've seen this already, but another important factor
is herd mentality, following another pilot, and not just in contests.
Some examples:
http://www.nadler.com/public/Nadler_On_Safety_Soaring_May_1987.pdf
Thanks again,
Best Regards, Dave
BobW
Nov 22, 2019, 11:20:45 AM11/22/19
to
analyze and share it.
My short-form assessment? How a person thinks *does* matter! :)
Bob W.
Matt Herron Jr.
Nov 22, 2019, 12:06:41 PM11/22/19
to
This is such a thoughtful, thorough, and practical analysis of glider accidents. Thank you so much for taking the time to think it through, do the research, and write it up. Is there any way you could present this at the upcoming SSA convention? I would donate something towards your air fare, if that is an issue.
I would also love to have a little "reminder card" that I could consult on a regular basis, maybe tucked in the glider pocket. We tend to forget even important information like this fairly quickly.
Thanks again,
Matt
Clemens Ceipek
Nov 22, 2019, 12:45:38 PM11/22/19
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Dave - thank you for sharing that article. I had not seen it before. It is super insightful and remains very relevant! It is very possible that some of the pilots who crashed due to "fateful decisions /eroded margins" had been following someone else before they crashed and this just wasn't mentioned in the accident report. (I have done that a few times in multi-player races on Condor and learned that way that it's never a good idea to assume that the pilot ahead knows what they are doing. In real life I have so far resisted the temptation considering differences in experience/skill level, equipment, and risk attitude. I want to keep it that way - especially as I will be flying in my first real-life contests next year.)
Tom BravoMike - yes, I could have been more explicit in mentioning that accidents are often a the result of a chain of decisions or events. Classifying them one way or another obviously required me to pick one moment in that chain. I tried to identify the one point from where the accident became probably no longer avoidable. (e.g. consider the many cases where pilots delayed a decision to land. Many of them are officially reported as stall/spins or failure to maintain a sufficient airspeed/or ground clearance. I reported them as "delayed decision to land" because that's what set off the chain of events that ultimately resulted in the accident.) If you read Dave's article, it provides several great examples for exactly those types of situations and in most cases I found it not very difficult to identify the point after which the accident could have only been prevented by sheer luck.
Clemens
Tom BravoMike - yes, I could have been more explicit in mentioning that accidents are often a the result of a chain of decisions or events. Classifying them one way or another obviously required me to pick one moment in that chain. I tried to identify the one point from where the accident became probably no longer avoidable. (e.g. consider the many cases where pilots delayed a decision to land. Many of them are officially reported as stall/spins or failure to maintain a sufficient airspeed/or ground clearance. I reported them as "delayed decision to land" because that's what set off the chain of events that ultimately resulted in the accident.) If you read Dave's article, it provides several great examples for exactly those types of situations and in most cases I found it not very difficult to identify the point after which the accident could have only been prevented by sheer luck.
Clemens
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