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XCSkies version 3 - announced by Chris Galli - coming in ten days ... ?

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WaltWX

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Mar 31, 2017, 2:46:25 AM3/31/17
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Cross posted from XCSkies Google mailing list: Chris Galli is responding to John Godfrey.

Walt Rogers... WX

_______________________________________________________________________________

We hear you John. And we hear everyone else who has chimed in as this soaring season is starting to heat up here in North America. Thanks for the feedback and criticism. It's the relentless demand for newer and better data and visualization techniques that keeps this project moving forward (albeit, a little slow at times).

The NAM 12km model run will be brought back to life in current version of XC Skies for the next week until the new version of XC Skies is released. You should start seeing it over the next hour. We knowingly let that drop on the floor because the new XC Skies (V3) was to be released by March 15. It got pushed back a couple of weeks. So in short: "Yeah, we kinda blew that one, and we apologize."

Within the next 10 days you can expect to have more soaring information in one place than has ever been previously available. The model run down looks like this:

HRRR 3km native sigma levels (yes, for those who understand what that means, you read that right) for all 18 hours run every 6 hours. This is a tremendous amount of information for the U.S.
NAM 12km (the one we let drop as you noted) hourly through 36 hours and then 3 hourly through 84 hours.
NAM 3km is available as of last week running for CONUS on the exact same grid as HRRR 3km. All available hours are in XC Skies V3.
RAP 13km for all hourly forecasts run every 6 hours.
GFS .25 degrees, hourly for 5 days.
GFDS Global Canadian model at .25 degrees, 3 hourly for 48 hours, then 6 hourly through 4 days.
* all of these models are still parameterized to 1km resolution.

A few nice features:
1. A single mouse click on the map will instantly show all underlying values of the map overlay for ALL available models at the particular hour and location.
2. Click anywhere on the map to start a route for any model available.
3. Click anywhere on the map to view a point forecast for any model out through all available data. In the case of GFS, that's 5 days of hourly data available via an interactive plot within a second or so.
4. Click anywhere on the map to view interactive simple SkewT plots and Hodographs of any location for any model. You can even animate multiple days of SkewT plots to see the detailed evolution of the soaring window at hourly steps.
5. Animated winds for any wind level and surface winds.
6. Wind streamlines.
7. Custom coloring, thresholding and masking of values for any layer. This is useful to pull out the underlying values within sensitive areas.
...and quite a bit more, but that's what I can think of off the top of my head.


Other improvements:
1. Speed, speed speed. The entire weather engine was rewritten from the ground up, and you will notice the difference immediately.
2. Fully functional on any recent mobile device. That means smart phones, tablets, iPad, etc. iPhone 4+ and Android 3.2+

Coming soon, but not in this first V3 release:
1. Create your own custom layer that will find the intersection of conditions that you are interested in. This is to replace the "XC Potential" layer that we've always cringed a little every time it's mentioned for the obvious reasons.
2. Share what you're seeing with friends via Facebook or Twitter with just a few clicks.
3. Airports overlay and geographical features of interest (peak names, passes, etc.); the markers that many of us pilots fly by...

Well, you get the gist of what's coming. Attached (pasted here) is a screen shot of the main map. We're keeping the similar look and feels of XC Skies through this first release to make sure we can transition folks to the new tools without too much of a learning curve.

There's only a handful of bugs to sort out on our list and then you'll have full access to this new version. Same cost. No gimmicks. No advertising clutter etc. Just more useful data for our community. I don't know anything about Sky Sight, but more resources to compare a day's soaring potential sounds great to us!

Cheers (and sincere apologies for the NAM debacle),

Chris Galli

WaltWX

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Mar 31, 2017, 2:47:59 AM3/31/17
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Chris,

That's great news! XCSkies v3 must have been in the "Skunkworks" for well over a year.

It's looking to me like the NAM CONUS Hires, 3km resolution... now with convection allowing physics for thunderstorm forecasting... will be a great enhancement for soaring pilots and task planners.

My thinking is that the HRRR 18hr 3km and the NAM 3km will probably be competing contenders for popularity (not to mention that they have competing development groups in NOAA's NCEP and ESRL Boulder). The HRRR has great hourly updating capability for tracking thunderstorm convection... and the NAM 3km will provide a significantly improved look at tomorrow soaring weather (i.e. it runs to 60hrs). And, of course, the GFS is pretty good at times also and in your services forecasts out to 5days.

Chris, can one display in v3 a time series height/time plot of thermals heights (max thermal height; Hcrit, etc)? A time series plot like this is what I've been doing for several years using the RAOB.com program (my plot also shows thermal index... but that's not necessary). If one can plot comparisons of hourly NAM 12km, HRRR, and NAM 3km or RAP 13km thermal progression through the soaring day... that would be a fantastic tool for CD's (like John Godfrey).

Version 3 of XCSkies will become the premium soaring forecast tool with these new models to compare from. I know the amount of work that it takes to orchestrate this huge amount of data and "mine soaring parameters" from the glider pilot's perspective. I've experimented with doing something similar using IDV and NCL... but am nowhere close to packaging into an operational web service.

Congratulations... looking forward to v3

Chris... sometimes software projects over hype their project making promises, but don't deliver. Sometimes, they just release it explosively with little or no notice. It would have been great if you'd kept your XCSkies community a bit more up to date with the progress of version 3. Yes, I know... it's hard to predict release dates when you are balancing many other projects.

Please... speak out a little more to reassure us on the status of XCSkies.

Walt Rogers WX

Sean Fidler

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Mar 31, 2017, 7:29:15 AM3/31/17
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Clearly this little blurb and energy in response to skysight.io being released in the USA and Canada.

Competition is good.

JS

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Mar 31, 2017, 12:11:49 PM3/31/17
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On Friday, March 31, 2017 at 4:29:15 AM UTC-7, Sean Fidler wrote:
> Clearly this little blurb and energy in response to skysight.io being released in the USA and Canada.
>
> Competition is good.

John's "Quite True" post prompted Chris' first appearance on the XC Skies forum in a year and a half.
Jim

Tom Kelley #711

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Mar 31, 2017, 12:29:38 PM3/31/17
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Ya, I got a PayPal claim going on as my card was charged, as others, and no renewed subscription. No response to numerous emails being sent by me or PayPal.

Bets. #711.

Bret Hess

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Apr 1, 2017, 1:30:22 AM4/1/17
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Chris doesn't even answer emails from people trying to buy a subcription to xcskies.

Sean Fidler

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Apr 1, 2017, 8:05:46 AM4/1/17
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Skylight.io <----------

;-)

JS

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Apr 1, 2017, 12:37:02 PM4/1/17
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On Saturday, April 1, 2017 at 5:05:46 AM UTC-7, Sean Fidler wrote:
> Skylight.io <----------
>
> ;-)

Slight correction...

SkySight.io.

Matthew seems to operate at the other end of the customer service spectrum from what many of us have seen in the last ~4 years of XC Skies.
More than just another World Champion.
Jim

Mike the Strike

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Apr 2, 2017, 1:16:02 AM4/2/17
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> SkySight.io.
>
> Matthew seems to operate at the other end of the customer service spectrum from what many of us have seen in the last ~4 years of XC Skies.
> More than just another World Champion.
> Jim

Worse than that - some of the XC Skies web site hasn't been updated since 2009 and Chris has almost completely ignored his paying customers, failing to answer e-mails or technical questions for more than 4 years.

He may produce an improved product - he clearly knows what he's doing there - but in my experience customer service is determined by the owner of a company and doesn't usually change. I am afraid we will get a wonderful new XC Skies product and then Chris will disappear for another 8 years and we'll be on our own again!

I do weather forecasts for my club and occasionally for contests. Folks ask me for my opinion. I am advising everyone I know to support Matt and sign up for SkySight and, if they can only afford one subscription, to drop XC Skies.

Sorry Chris, but that's what happens when you take customers money and then ignore them when they need help with your product.

Mike

Sean Fidler

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Apr 2, 2017, 7:17:55 AM4/2/17
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Sorry for the spell check typo.

--- SKYSIGHT.io ---

Matthew Scutter (skysight.io developer) is a highly driven (already extremely accomplished in soaring competition) ex Google developer (now fully focused on his new venture) who is truly determined to make commercial ($10 per month) soaring weather forecasting better.

I have used XC skies myself (still do) and found it to be fine. But Skysight just seems to be considerably more accurate than any current option. It is far higher resolution. Also, most important for me, the mobile accessibility of the Skysight.io content is outstanding, and for me, mobile is how I prefer to view weather content. Dr. Jack and XC Skies absolutely stink on mobile devices. Mathew understands mobile user interface. That said, his normal web browser user interface is also superior as well in terms of the timeline scroll bar, etc.

And he is just getting started.... We should all consider support him. His work can help us all enjoy soaring a little more with better, more convenient, more accessible soaring weather forecasting.

My 2 cents...

Sean

krasw

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Apr 2, 2017, 7:29:50 AM4/2/17
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So is Skysight.io just another new visualization of old RASP code, or is there actual science involved?

JS

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Apr 2, 2017, 11:10:09 AM4/2/17
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On Sunday, April 2, 2017 at 4:29:50 AM UTC-7, krasw wrote:
> So is Skysight.io just another new visualization of old RASP code, or is there actual science involved?

Link to an earlier thread:
SkySight forecast available for SW USA
Jim

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.aviation.soaring/skysight$20forecast$20available%7Csort:relevance/rec.aviation.soaring/oIyRwoK-QG8/VwrxsF28BAAJ

krasw

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Apr 2, 2017, 2:05:05 PM4/2/17
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On Sunday, 2 April 2017 18:10:09 UTC+3, JS wrote:
> On Sunday, April 2, 2017 at 4:29:50 AM UTC-7, krasw wrote:
> > So is Skysight.io just another new visualization of old RASP code, or is there actual science involved?
>
> Link to an earlier thread:
> SkySight forecast available for SW USA
> Jim
>

It says nothing about the data, model etc.

JS

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Apr 2, 2017, 5:23:04 PM4/2/17
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Sorry, Krasw.
Thought Walt had posted in that thread that SkySight uses the WRF model which seems to forecast as accurately as HRRR, but gives longer range forecasts than HRRR.
Just reread WX's posts and didn't find that.
Jim

Eric Greenwell

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Apr 2, 2017, 10:29:46 PM4/2/17
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You can try it for free for 7 days, and if that's not enough, buy 1 month at $10.
By the end of the month, you should have a good idea of it's value to you. I did
the 7 days, now I'm doing a month.


--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
- "Transponders in Sailplanes - Dec 2014a" also ADS-B, PCAS, Flarm

http://soaringsafety.org/prevention/Guide-to-transponders-in-sailplanes-2014A.pdf

Bret Hess

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Apr 3, 2017, 1:20:10 AM4/3/17
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It will be interesting to see if the Xcskies price goes up. If it's still half the price of skysight, it might survive providing the world's worst customer service.

krasw

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Apr 3, 2017, 2:28:11 AM4/3/17
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On Monday, 3 April 2017 00:23:04 UTC+3, JS wrote:
>
> Sorry, Krasw.
> Thought Walt had posted in that thread that SkySight uses the WRF model which seems to forecast as accurately as HRRR, but gives longer range forecasts than HRRR.
> Just reread WX's posts and didn't find that.
> Jim

So it's basically RASP. WRF is far from state of the art.

Mike C

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Apr 3, 2017, 10:27:08 AM4/3/17
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On Sunday, April 2, 2017 at 11:20:10 PM UTC-6, Bret Hess wrote:
> It will be interesting to see if the Xcskies price goes up. If it's still half the price of skysight, it might survive providing the world's worst customer service.

Checked SkySight twice during my free evaluation period. During both days XCSkies had a more accurate forecast while I was flying at Moriarty. Have never had a problem with XCSkies.

Mike

kirk.stant

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Apr 3, 2017, 10:43:55 AM4/3/17
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I've been using XCSkies since it first came out and have never had a problem with it - works just fine on my PC or my iPhone, all over the US.

A vast improvement over DrJack - my previous glider WX go-to.

If it ain't broke, it don't need fixin'

Kirk
66

Dan Marotta

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Apr 3, 2017, 11:49:18 AM4/3/17
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What customer service do you need? My experience has been that it works
and my renewals over 6 years have worked. What else is there? If you
can't figure out how to use it, ask a friend.

On 4/2/2017 11:20 PM, Bret Hess wrote:
> It will be interesting to see if the Xcskies price goes up. If it's still half the price of skysight, it might survive providing the world's worst customer service.

--
Dan, 5J

JS

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Apr 3, 2017, 12:43:10 PM4/3/17
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Your mileage may vary?
For the most part I like XC Skies. It might be working where you fly. It works where I live too.
Personally had no problem resubscribing, but that doesn't deny other people's problems, including payment made and product not delivered.
Why do some XC Skies forecasts have enormous lines of weather that are different to the adjoining area? An example:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/87cli6uwgt0qz9n/2016-01-01%201400%20Lake%20Keepit%20GFS.jpg?dl=0
I've seen these vertical and horizontal lines in Northeastern USA and in New South Wales.
The NSW forecast was bad (as in the image) for at least two years with no response from the owner of the paid product. All requests sent to three different e-mail addresses from multiple e-mail accounts over a long period of time were ignored.
I evidently don't know how to use it, so I'll ask:
Where is the Convergence forecast on XC Skies?
Jim

Mike C

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Apr 3, 2017, 12:58:02 PM4/3/17
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Where I live in New Mexico, USA, convergence lines are easy to see on XCSkies, and they are usually accurate especially with the NAM forecasts. When I click on the "Cloud Base" tab, the convergence if there is to be one shows up very vividly. Maybe in the high desert or NM with such remarkable soaring conditions it may be easier to forecast and see, not sure.

Mike

Tom Kelley #711

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Apr 3, 2017, 1:55:00 PM4/3/17
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Resolution of Your Case: #PP-005-643-420-669
----------------------------------------------------------------------


Dear Thomas,

We have concluded our investigation into your case and have decided in your
favor.

We were able to recover $29.95 USD and this amount has been credited to
you. Please allow five business days for this adjustment to be posted.

If you are due any additional funds, we will make our best effort to
recover the balance from the seller.


If the seller's account has insufficient funds to complete the refund owed
to you, please be assured that we will take appropriate action against the
seller's account, which may include limitation of the seller's account
privileges.


-----------------------------------
Transaction Details
-----------------------------------


Seller's Name: XC Skies
Seller's Email: pay...@xcskies.com
Seller's Transaction ID: 43224129AP495370D

Transaction Date: Mar 14, 2017
Transaction Amount: -$29.95 USD

No response to any emails from me or PayPal.

Best. #711.

Bret Hess

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Apr 3, 2017, 6:01:56 PM4/3/17
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The customer service you need is that when you pay for it your account opens.

I also used it for many years, but a year ago when I renewed, I could pay via Paypal, but it never would activate. Chris refuses to answer multiple emails even from someone trying keep using his product. I did finally get a refund from Paypal, because he doesn't answer their emails either.

Bret Hess

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Apr 3, 2017, 6:32:39 PM4/3/17
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In some ways it's an (evil) genius business model. If registration/payment works for most people, you just let them keep using it, ignore everyone else who pays, and let Paypal clean up the mess. It is half the price of Skysight, so if the new version lets me in, I admit I will probably keep using it. If more of us had the gall to be so rude, we'd probably make money with less effort, too. (no pun intended on gall being close to galli, but it's probably connected somewhere in my subconcious).

Dan Marotta

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Apr 3, 2017, 9:27:20 PM4/3/17
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> Why do some XC Skies forecasts have enormous lines of weather that are different to the adjoining area? An example:
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/87cli6uwgt0qz9n/2016-01-01%201400%20Lake%20Keepit%20GFS.jpg?dl=0
> I've seen these vertical and horizontal lines in Northeastern USA and in New South Wales.
> The NSW forecast was bad (as in the image) for at least two years with no response from the owner of the paid product. All requests sent to three different e-mail addresses from multiple e-mail accounts over a long period of time were ignored.
> I evidently don't know how to use it, so I'll ask:
> Where is the Convergence forecast on XC Skies?
> Jim
Global warming? :-D

Yeah, I know I'm a couple of days late, but I couldn't resist...
--
Dan, 5J

Jonathan Foster

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Apr 9, 2017, 11:04:52 PM4/9/17
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Any new news on this? Excited to see what is new.

Mike the Strike

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Apr 11, 2017, 5:18:31 PM4/11/17
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On Sunday, April 9, 2017 at 8:04:52 PM UTC-7, Jonathan Foster wrote:
> Any new news on this? Excited to see what is new.

Now 14 days into the ten-day waiting period!

Mike

Paul Agnew

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Apr 28, 2017, 1:50:04 PM4/28/17
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Site is down today. Maybe the update is finally getting uploaded.

Paul A.

Dan Stroschine

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Apr 28, 2017, 3:51:37 PM4/28/17
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On Friday, April 28, 2017 at 10:50:04 AM UTC-7, Paul Agnew wrote:
> Site is down today. Maybe the update is finally getting uploaded.
>
> Paul A.

It's back up for me now...still the same though.

Paul Agnew

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Apr 28, 2017, 4:37:15 PM4/28/17
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I agree, but now plot won't generate for Point forecasts and it just shows a broken link.

Upon inspection of the HTML:

"Failed to load resource: the server responded with a status of 404 (Not Found)"

Paul A.

WaltWX

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Apr 29, 2017, 12:13:12 AM4/29/17
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OK, guys... my apologies... for not posting sooner. I've been evaluating it.

Walt Rogers WX here...

Chris Galli announced on April 20th a beta of version 3 XCSkies. He must not have access to making announcements on this list. Not sure why he's not announcing on the Google XCSkies list.

Version 3 looks outstanding. You can see it here:

https://v3.xcskies.com

Chris says it should work with you normal v2 logins.

Here's his April 20th post to a beta list of evaluators:

___________________________

Hey Everyone,

I'd like to send this inner circle of friends and fellow crushers the first look at the new XC Skies V3. I'm calling it an Alpha release for now until most of the bugs and website docs can be finished. The main map application is ready to be beaten up. Here's the link:

https://v3.xcskies.com

You can use your normal account to login and kick the tires. I'll setup a dummy account with a subscription in case you can't get your current one to work (if it's even active) . I'll send that later today.

The amount of new features combined with the additional models available provides something on the order of 10X more data, so it's been challenging to balance how best to allow quick access to the essence of the forecast, while preserving the details a single click away.

I'd love to get as much feedback and criticism anyone would like to provide. Feel free to send the link around to anyone else you think could provide good testing and feedback. I'm thinking that this can be polished up and released fully by the end of April. It's long overdue.

A few important things to know:

1. The HRRR 3km and NAM 3km are picking up details about the day's soaring potential that I didn't expect to see. For example, lines of lift and even cloud streets, along with the underlying surface convergences that are producing them. For example, look at the HRRR mid to late afternoon and turn on surface winds animation. You'll see exactly what I'm talking about. If this forecast turns out to be even half right, it's a major game changer for all of us looking to make more distance.

2. Wind animations are surprisingly useful it turns out. THere's a little "play" button on the wind bar that will set things in motion. In the settings you can click on the Glider / Balloon tracer option to insert an object into the wind flow. Watch where it ends up over time! You might be surprised how the vectors actually react. I'm amazed at how what I think the flow means and what actually happens physically. I guess the take away is that looking at a grid of wind barbs can be misleading at times.

3. The skew-T option is very basic right now, but might be my favorite new feature. You can click anywhere on the map for any model and time and instantly get back the native levels of the model's temperature and moisture profiles. I've added a blue line that connects the surface temps along the dry adiabat through the boundary layer profile, so it's instantly clear what the boundary layer details are.

4. Saving profiles and the state of the map and the plots should be very intuitive for most. There's a little color swath underneath the forecast hours that indicates where solar noon is for the center of the map. Because there are 3 times the number of forecast hours available than before, it was not obvious to me where the peak of the day was for any given day in the season, so this should help zero in on the important afternoon times.

5. There's also a new "sun clock" that is useful for small screen devices (and is default for the mobile version) that is literally a 24 hour clock with sun rise and sun set noted, along with solar noon. Again, it represents the center of the map.

6. The point forecasts work for all models and available times. If you have the GFS selected, it takes a few seconds, but you'll get back hourly values across the next 5 days! For the short term forecasts like the NAM and RUC and HRRR, you'll get back all of the data available, which might be less than a full day. Routes are crazy fast to create and change, with the plots responding sub-second. You can lay down a few zigs or zags and then change through the hours and models to see how they compare.

7. Really, there's a lot more, but I think it should be pretty obvious. If there needs to be explanations on some things, let me know so we can feature that in the docs (which are coming soon).

I can't wait to see how this new tuned version is going to work for our soaring community. I'm guessing it could be a game changer for XC planning and distance potential.

-Chris

Dan Daly

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Apr 29, 2017, 7:02:16 AM4/29/17
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My current v2 login doesn't work - says "subscription required" when I try to look at this afternoon's forecast.

JS

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Apr 29, 2017, 9:26:33 AM4/29/17
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That's how it has been for me. No forecasts.
Jim

bucc...@gmail.com

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Apr 29, 2017, 9:54:02 AM4/29/17
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The same problem for me also. Able to use Version 2, but new version does not recognize me as having an active account, asking me, by name, to renew my subscription! Frustration max

Eric Bick (ZN7)

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Apr 29, 2017, 10:30:54 AM4/29/17
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worked fine with my v2 login credentials

Eric Bick (ZN7)

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Apr 29, 2017, 11:23:52 AM4/29/17
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After an hour of playing around with the new version - Wow! Loads quickly. Takes a bit to get the hang of navigating around the new features, but fairly intuitive. The new wind features look to be very helpful. Point forecasts are enhanced by being able to compare different models for appropriate time frames. A feature I do not see, which can be found in Dr. Jack RASP BLIPMAP, is BL Max Up/Down Motion which can be a nice wave/convergence indicator. The wind plots can probably show convergence, but don't think they'll show wave. I suppose the really neat interactive skew-T plots can be used for that, but the up/down motion plots were a nice graphical representation of potential wave. I note the XC Potential option is gone (not that it was useful for gliders). I still like the TopMeteo feature with Probable Distance plots as they give a nice indicator of directions to fly. Will wait to see (after all this snow and wind stops at Moriarty) whether the new XCSkies will readily provide that info. All in all, I am thoroughly impressed by the update and the wealth of soaring information provided. Good job, Chris.

Dan Marotta

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Apr 29, 2017, 11:58:26 AM4/29/17
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Seven different models! How does one who typically decides whether,
when, and which way to go, by looking out the window, decide?

Much fun playing with this but, as Eric said, we'll have to wait a
couple of days before Moriarty Soaring kicks off again.
--
Dan, 5J

sr...@mindspring.com

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Apr 29, 2017, 6:28:34 PM4/29/17
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My evaluation of the new program today in South Carolina was not encouraging. The new XCskies showed most of SC unsoarable (or marginally soarable) with all modals. The old XCskies showed soarable weather. Other sites looked much better.
Am concerned about the algorithms. the graphics are neat as are the choices

Sig_ZA

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Apr 29, 2017, 11:53:30 PM4/29/17
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My V2 login details work.
New version V3 and the old V2 load a lot quicker.

Dan Marotta

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Apr 30, 2017, 10:35:44 AM4/30/17
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Did you fly? If so, how did each stack up to actual conditions?

On 4/29/2017 4:28 PM, sr...@mindspring.com wrote:
> My evaluation of the new program today in South Carolina was not encouraging. The new XCskies showed most of SC unsoarable (or marginally soarable) with all modals. The old XCskies showed soarable weather. Other sites looked much better.
> Am concerned about the algorithms. the graphics are neat as are the choices

--
Dan, 5J

Richard Pfiffner

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Apr 30, 2017, 10:54:11 AM4/30/17
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I flew in Montague and the new version 3 matched the conditions GSF.

Richard
www.craggyaero.com

dcava...@gsinet.net

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Apr 30, 2017, 12:30:53 PM4/30/17
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On Saturday, April 29, 2017 at 11:53:30 PM UTC-4, Sig_ZA wrote:
> My V2 login details work.
> New version V3 and the old V2 load a lot quicker.

My log in credentials do not work? It works with the old version. What can I do to get my subscription to allow me access?

Dennis

Dan Daly

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Apr 30, 2017, 2:49:18 PM4/30/17
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Further, though I paid via PayPal on April 12, 2017, when I try to go to the forum, it says membership pending. Old one works, new one (now says Beta vs Alpha) not. It would be nice to be able to participate. I promise to give post-flight review of what seems to work here at the Ridge...
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