How dangerous is soaring?
patrick.seb...@gmail.com
safest aviation sport, almost safer than most 'real' sports. You can't
brake your leg while flying :) Only when you hit the ground :D
Though on a first year 4 pilots that I knew got killed with glider.
Not a good start. And during the years I have counted over 20
fatalities where I can say they either they were my friends or I knew
them well. Plus all the other fatalities. Almost every week on this
group, we get another sad message informing yet another fatality. And
most of the cases, pilots has been extremely experiensed. We know that
they haven't done any stupid moves, they just lost the control of the
plane on wrong situation or the plane has failed on them. I personally
feel that I am on the edge to quit this sport because of that. I don't
want to see not even one more friend passing away. I want to push that
off my mind.
Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
it???
PS
cherok...@gmail.com
> it???
(resounding) YES
uncl...@ix.netcom.com
YES!
UH
Vorsa...@aol.com
I discovered soaring. That was 20 + years ago. I have been soaring
since, haven't sailed for some 15 years, and also sold all my
(obsolete) ski gear . The answer, then, is an unequivocal " YES " !
Cheers, Charles
Jesper Thomsen
<patrick.seb...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1193738217....@k79g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
Let me put a little perspective on it for you - in Denmark we've not had any
fatalities in the last (off the top of my head) 10 years, and on average we
have about 3-5 incidents/accidents every year. This compared to about
(roughly estimated) 50.000 operations a year so at least here Soaring is the
safest aviation sport you can find.
/J
01-- Zero One
Patrick,
Quitting the sport will not stop further fatalities (Except possibly
your own from flying. I can assure you that life itself is fatal.). We are
going to continue this sport whether you continue in it or not. What will
change is that you no longer have the contact with one of the most diverse and
interesting groups around. We will still be flying, soaring, laughing, lying
about our accomplishments over a beer, having the adventures of a retrieve,
seeing firsthand the grandeur of nature and weather, experiencing the
satisfaction of launching into the skies and returning home, making new friends
... and, yes, possibly losing a few of them along the way.
How dangerous is soaring? My primary instructor would answer the question, “Soaring is bloody dangerous! Anytime you get more than about 3 feet off the ground (whether on a ladder, airplane, rooftop) or travel more than about 15 miles per hour (whether in a car, bicycle, skis, or airplane), you are taking your life in your own hands.”
Let’s be diligent about our safety with procedures, better equipment, etc. But at the end of the day, it is still going to be more dangerous than not flying.
I want to live to see what my great-grandchildren become. But when they ask what I did with my life, I don’t want to say “Well, I worked 40 years and then I retired.” I want to tell them about the time that I thermalled with a bald eagle, or the time I saw a corn stalk flying in the thermal over Uvalde, or the grandeur of the mountains and lakes in the western US, or the magic of seeing my “glory” on a cloud below me.
Is it worth it? Each person has to answer it for themselves.
For me, absolutely.
Larry Goddard
01 “zero one” USA
BB
> group, we get another sad message informing yet another fatality. And
> most of the cases, pilots has been extremely experiensed. We know that
> they haven't done any stupid moves, they just lost the control of the
> plane on wrong situation or the plane has failed on them.
This is unfortunately not a very accurate picture. The newsgroup tends
to hear of the "extremely experienced" category, but the majority of
the 4-6 fatalities per year in the US are fairly simple screwups
around the home airport.
The vast majority of the fatalities among the "extremely experienced"
pilots also come down to fairly simple pilot errors -- trying to ridge
soar some tiny bump in a strong wind, thermal up off the middle of the
canyon, make that last desperate transition, flying over unlandable
terrain because "there is sure to be a thermal there" and so forth.
More experienced pilots take greater risks. Fatalities from "losing
control" or "the plane has failed on them" are essentially unheard
of.
So here's the bottom line. Flying gliders is not inherently risky. We
only fly in good weather, our systems are very simple, and there is no
engine to fail. This rules out 90% of the causes of accidents in light
planes. If our pilot training and rules of engagement were the same as
that of the airlines, our fatality rate would be less then theirs.
That's why numbers are misleading. It's not Russian roulette, with the
question "how many chambers are loaded?'" A danger rate anywhere
between extreme motocross and airline flying is entirely in your own
hands.
The accident-waiting-to-happen takes this fact and says "they were all
pilot errors. A truly skilled pilot like me would never do something
so stupid." This is a good defense mechanism, but a wiser pilot (or
spouse!) will notice that the pilots who crashed felt the same way.
The wiser pilot remembers the temptations to which his much more
skilled and accomplished friends fell, and understands "where they
failed I could fail as well." He studies obsessively, makes
contingency plans and sets personal limits, and runs through his
checklist once more.
Why do we do it? In the end, there is nothing in the world like the
sense of wonder and accomplishment at the end of a long cross-country
soaring day.
John Cochrane
Ian
> Almost every week on this
> group, we get another sad message informing yet another fatality. And
> most of the cases, pilots has been extremely experiensed. We know that
> they haven't done any stupid moves, they just lost the control of the
> plane on wrong situation or the plane has failed on them.
People often ask me "Is gliding safe?" My reply is always the same -
"No, it is not safe, but it's is not hard to make it personally safer
- don't be bloody stupid."
Does S&G still publish accident reports [1]? They used to categorize
the causes: "Instructor failed to take over in time", "Poor field
selection", "Rigging error" and so on. However, almost all - certainly
90+% - of accidents had the same meta-cause lurking behind the report:
bloody stupidity.
Pressing on through an unlandable area on a dying day? Bloody stupid.
Forgetting to connect the elevator before launching, and then not
checking? Bloody stupid.
Flying in dangerously tight gaggles for the sake of a few points?
Bloody stupid.
"Just [losing] the control of the plane on wrong situation"? Bloody
stupid, almost certainly.
All you have to do is not be bloody stupid (and discourage bloody
stupidity amongst those around you) and you can decrease your own risk
enormously.
Ian
Ian
> Almost every week on this
> group, we get another sad message informing yet another fatality. And
> most of the cases, pilots has been extremely experiensed. We know that
> they haven't done any stupid moves, they just lost the control of the
> plane on wrong situation or the plane has failed on them.
People often ask me "Is gliding safe?" My reply is always the same -
"No, it is not safe, but it's is not hard to make it personally safer
- don't be bloody stupid."
Does S&G still publish accident reports [1]? They used to categorize
the causes: "Instructor failed to take over in time", "Poor field
selection", "Rigging error" and so on. However, almost all - certainly
90+% - of accidents had the same meta-cause lurking behind the report:
bloody stupidity.
Pressing on through an unlandable area on a dying day? Bloody stupid.
Forgetting to connect the elevator before launching, and then not
checking? Bloody stupid.
Flying in dangerously tight gaggles for the sake of a few points?
Bloody stupid.
"Just [losing] the control of the plane on wrong situation"? Bloody
stupid, almost certainly.
All you have to do is not be bloody stupid (and discourage bloody
stupidity amongst those around you) and you can decrease your own risk
enormously.
Ian
[1] Don't read it any more. There are only so many time I can be
enthralled by "Derek Piggott takes a fresh look at winch launching",
"Our chairman's son goes solo on his sixteenth birthday" and the task
for Day 3 of the last Eastern Counties Club Class competition.
Ian
> Let's be diligent about our safety with procedures, better equipment,
> etc. But at the end of the day, it is still going to be more dangerous
> than not flying. ...
> Is it worth it? Each person has to answer it for themselves.
>
> For me, absolutely.
Absolutely. We must always beware of people and clubs who claim that
"Safety is the prime concern." If they really meant it, they wouldn't
go gliding at all. It's a hobby - for most of us - so fun is our prime
concern, followed by as much safety as we can reasonably fit in.
Ian
raulb
soaring. I have, of course, known OF pilots who were killed while
flying, and everyone made some mistake which caused their demise
(well, at least one may have had a heart attack).
However, when I was 19, a girl from my high school and church was
killed in a traffic accident. Should I have quit driving?
An acquantance of mine, and fellow glider pilot Jack Lambe was shot
and killed by his brother. I still have my guns (and I won't argue
with you whether you think I should get rid of them or not) and I
still associate with my brother.
Then too, I have fallen off the top of a 6 foot ladder. No, I was not
killed, but I could have been had my head hit the floor before my
shoulder. Yet I worked for another 20 years as an electrician,
climbing ladders.
I have totaled a 1-26 on the side of a mountain. I still fly.
I have also had a serious motorcycle accident (forced off the road by
an inattentive driver) which could easily have resulted in my death.
I still ride.
My point is, as the man said, "you pays your money, you takes your
chances." If you do not think that the benefit is worth the risk,
don't "pays your money." No one can (or should) decide that for you.
In the end, it is all in your perception because some people crash and
some people don't. Some people die soaring, but some people die in
traffic accidents, some people die falling off ladders, and some
people drown in 3 inches of water after slipping in their bath tub.
I don't believe in predestination, but I happen to be one of those
people who believes that when your time is up, it's up. You coud be
soaring or you could be slipping in the tub. I should have died at
least 5 times by now and although I have been seriously ill or injured
in each of these, for who knows what reason, I am still here. I would
have missed a lot if I let my fear of dying rule my life--don't get me
wrong, the chance of dying is always on my mind.
Having said all of this, I now tell you that you have to ignore what
any one done/said and make up your own mind about flying. If you
can't get past the risk of dying, then by all means, quit flying. If
you decide to go on flying, DO NOT fear it. You have to respect the
dangerous activities (flying, driving, working with electricity,
etc.). You will get in A LOT more trouble flying while being afraid
of flying than you ever will if you fly and respect it.
Whatever you decide, it will be the right decision for you, but not
necessarily for anyone else.
Papa3
Last Sunday was one of the most beautiful soaring days imaginable here
in the Ridge Country of the northeastern US. Trees are turning
colors, there were hawks a-plenty, and I even flew with a bald eagle
for a while. It was good.
On the car ride home, I began counting the number of roadside
memorials to people killed in car accidents along interstate 80 (for
those of you not familiar: a) interstate 80 is a major 6 lane highway
which crosses the US and b) there is a trend in the US for people to
set up impromptu roadside memorials to friends and family killed in
car accidents) . In the 30 or so miles I travelled along this section
of road, I counted no fewer than 6 memorials. Six (or more) lives
snuffed out just going about their daily business or visiting friends
and family or maybe taking that long overdue vacation.
What's my conclusion? Life is filled with risks. We can manage
them to the best of our ability, but beyond a certain point there's
only so much that we control. Would I rather be remembered as
someone who had taken advantage of what life has to offer or someone
who "survived" to waste away slowly in an old age home?
I don't want to be cavalier about it, but I believe people who take up
soaring (or motorcycle racing, or downhill skiing, or horse jumping,
or...) know the risks. They choose to accept those risks. I think
they make the right choice.
Erik Mann
LS8-18 (P3)
user
No.
But we do it anyway. My, we are a selfish bunch...
<patrick.seb...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1193738217....@k79g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
Kloudy via AviationKB.com
>
>But is it worth
>it???
>
>PS
Yep.
You're gonna die sometime. Why not live while you're breathing?
--
Message posted via AviationKB.com
http://www.aviationkb.com/Uwe/Forums.aspx/soaring/200710/1
james.d...@saic.com
> Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
> me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
> it???
>
it.
I will concentrate on striving to let good judgement, not my ego,
drive my decision process. In other words, I will try not to do
anything "Bloody Stupid", and wreck my glider.
Nyal Williams
>> Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other
>>sport can give
>> me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc.
>>But is it worth
>> it???
Is anything worth it? You can die from sex, from eating,
from drinking too much water, from too much sleeping.
Hiding under the bed is not living. Stay wary, but
live your life with some risks taken; otherwise you
will never know who you are, or of what you are capable.
Rick Culbertson
> Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
> me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
> it???
Hi Patrick,
For myself the answer is a firm Yes. This subject is near and dear to
all of us, as has been repeated by the replies here every pilot must
personally address the question. Your question is valid and
appropriate as Soaring is an "all in sport"and not for everyone, if
after serious reflection the answer is other than a true Yes... then it
certainly would be time to hang it up and OK to do so.
Back in 1999 I asked myself that same "is it worth it"question about
flying Hang Gliders, after 23 years of flying HGs I became a bit
complacent so my answer was "No". The main reason and simple answer is
because I wasn't "all in" and that's a recipe for big trouble. So I
shifted to Sailplanes because I still love soaring where the interest
and passion to fly returned 10 fold. I too have lost close friend in
both sports, some very reciently but I've lost many more friends and
family to cancer and traffic accidents. A few years ago my sister fell
off a ladder while hanging a bird feeder in a tree, she is now a
quadrapalegic, what can you say, you never know how long you may have
as the risks in life are many. For all the reasons and more mentioned
in the other replies posted here I say yes because speaking only for
myself it's what makes me tick, helps to keep me firmly engaged in
living a full life with a an grin and a twinkle in the eye. it's one
of the great reasons to be alive.
Rick - 21
Colorado, USA
hret...@aol.com
approach. Their death , and I would bet the vast majority, was due to
their failure. I don't recall reading about a death due to mechanical
failure, going back 30 or so years.
So, throw all the crap about living life in the can and ask yourself
if you are a good airman. If you suck, you'll probably kill yourself
and I would suggest you find a simpler hobbie.
If you're good, prove it to the rest of us by not doing something that
got your friends killed.
Perhaps you're just getting old and are looking for a reason to quit.
"Take up slack"
R
patrick.seb...@gmail.com
going to spend my life on bed :) There are lot of other ways to have
great time too. Though soaring is extremely the best rush I can get. I
like to polish the rock, beat the shit out of the skiers and so on.
Who wouldn't :) Like John said, there is nothing better than have that
100mile final glide back home after 500 miles behind you. But still I
don't know if it is worth it any more. Though one reason can be that I
have experienced it all already. Flown 20 years, about 4000hrs. But my
main consern still is that people dies. Of course you can die
anywhere, doing anything. But none of my tennis friends hasn't died on
tennis court. None of my icehockey friends hasn't died on ice rink.
None of my sailing friends hasn't died while sailing and so on... But
I've lost and wittnessed way too many fatalities. It totally changes
your view when you are first person on an fatal accident site. Done
that 4 times. Sure there has been stupid errors, but still. You can't
rig your tennis racket wrong...
On 31 loka, 00:27, Rick Culbertson <rc5...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
> > me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
> > it???
>
> Hi Patrick,
>
> For myself the answer is a firm Yes. This subject is near and dear to
> all of us, as has been repeated by the replies here every pilot mus
patrick.seb...@gmail.com
I recall couple of Nimbus 4's failing in flight. And one LS-6
(fluttered)
HL Falbaum
Yes, and a 1-34 or two as well.
We should remember that what we do has some risk. The management of that
risk is what we are about. We can manage more of the risk than, say, a
motorcyclist or a full contact karate participant.
When we get the feeling that what we are about to do is a bit dumb, we
should decide if it is worth it or not. We should know where the traps are,
such as a very marginal final glide in the hope that we will make it
(especially if we have done this before and got away with it)
Of all the forms of "evidence" in Medical and Sociologic research, anecdotal
evidence (I know 3 people who were killed in gliders last year) is the
next-to-last in value.
We all know how to behave---If we just do it we minimize the risk.
I think it is worth it!
--
Hartley Falbaum
DG808C "KF" USA
<patrick.seb...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1193784563....@50g2000hsm.googlegroups.com...
thermalrider
If your not living on the edge...your taking up to much space!
Is it worth it? It is the best thing you can do with your clothes on!
Is it safe? You are in command of that and only you.
If you do not respect the forces you are dealing with eventually you
will pay.
Regards
Jim
LS-1f (1J)
Ramy
mind everytime I hear about another fatality, especially someone I
knew (2 so far this year!). And I think most repliers are correct, for
most of us, it worth it, but probably not for our families and
friends...
I think the most important is to understand the big risk involved, and
not to be in denial like some posters who believe that as long as you
are not doing stupid mistakes you are safe. No matter how safe you
think you are, the risk is still significantly higher than most normal
activities (such as driving). Of course, there are measures we could
take to significantly reduce the risk, such as only fly in stable air,
far from terrain, never get further than 10:1 glide back to the
airport, etc, but than it wouldn't be much fun wouldn't it?
Ramy
On Oct 30, 10:59 am, "Kloudy via AviationKB.com" <u33403@uwe> wrote:
1LK
of 1 in 80. The additional risk I take on when flying is, by
comparison, relatively small. That said, there's little question that
soaring is more risky than generally believed. When the annual number
of deaths relative to the likely number of soaring participants (hours
would be a better denominator, but the data isn't available) is toted
up, soaring appears to rank right up there with motor racing or
serving in Iraq.
As to the fact that many fatalities involve highly experienced pilots,
it's worth considering that we accumulate age while aquiring
experience; one is protective, the other with it's accompanying loss
of neurologic competence is not.
The choice to participate should be made with a clear understanding of
the risks; for me the rewards are sufficient compensation. Your
milage may vary.
Ray Warshaw
1LK
BT
How dangerous is hiking.. experienced people are attacked every year and die
How dangerous is.... white water rafting.. canoeing.. sailing.. swimming..
water skiing.. snow skiing (trees jump in front of skiers)..
How dangerous are motorcycles.. the best instructor in the state just got
killed because a car lost control swerving to miss a ladder on the highway
and jumped the median..
How dangerous is racing, dragstrip, professionals.. get hurt or killed every
year..
How dangerous are quads.. people are maimed every year..
Don't give up your life because you think you might get hurt.. train..
study.. PRACTICE..
The most dangerous pilot is one who thinks he can fly himself out of a
jam... but you only see him at the airport once every 3 months.
BT
<patrick.seb...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1193738217....@k79g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
Bullwinkle
<bNO...@SPAM.cox.net> wrote:
The question is a fair one for someone to ask.
The answers I've seen so far are either not helpful or simply emotional.
Bottom line: here in the US (can't speak to other countries, which may be
better organized) no one can tell you if soaring is more dangerous than any
other activity because we have no rates with which to compare them.
Example, is there one fatality per 100,000 tows, or 100,000 flight hours, or
what? No one knows because there is no denominator (exposure data). We can
tell how many people died, and how many reportable accidents there were
(NTSB database), but absolutely no idea how many tows were made last year,
or how many flying hours were flown in the US last year.
In my own club, we could count tows, but have no system for totaling flight
hours among the private owners.
All that said, do I intend to continue soaring? Of course. There's simply
nothing like it. But I'm making that decision with my heart, not my head.
Bullwinkle
hret...@aol.com
aircraft failed. You still have a 98.7% chance of killing yourself ,
1.2% someone will slice thru you , and I'll give you .1% your aircraft
will fail at no fault to yourself. All this of course if anything
happens at all.
I think you should quit and collect stamps because your mind is on
death and not the business at hand.You think some kind of roulette
wheel is spinning with everyones name on it and you're next. With that
kind of confidence, you're a magnet for an accident.
Enjoy your snow, but I bet you'll shake this nonsense.
And as old Gus said, the best way to treat death is to ride off from
it.
R
Anybody want to talk about head-on collisions on a two lane highway?
Tony Verhulst
http://home.comcast.net/~verhulst/GBSC/student/faq.htm
"Most soaring accidents are the result of a series of judgment errors so
to a large extent, soaring is as safe as you make it."
Tony V.
Brian
How Dangerous is soaring?
Short answer is no one really knows and even if they did it would be
meaningless number.
No one knows because we really don't know how much soaring is done. As
stated in another post we know how many fatal accidents (127 since
1985) But we have no denominator.
It is a meaningless number because even if we knew it, it wouldn't
apply to you. The real question you want to know is "How dangerous
are you?" Soaring more than just about any other sport puts your
individual safety squarely upon your shoulders.
If you really want to know how dangerous Soaring is to you. Go to the
NTSB Site and review those 127 Accidents. How many of those pilots
were doing something you might be doing when they died?
IF you don't fly in the mountains, remove those accidents.
If you don't do Low passes, Remove those Accidents.
IF you don't fly motorgliders, selectively remove those accidents.
IF you don't thermal Low, remove those accidents.
If you don't put yourself in positions where you can't land at
airports, remove those accidents
If you don't put yourself in postions where you don't have good
landing options, remove those accidents.
After doing this every pilot will have a percentage of these Fatal
accidents that could have been them. Maybe they will alter the way the
fly to improve there numbers. The lower the number the Safer Soaring
is for you. If you don't fly obviously this number will be Zero. But
you will still die doing something.
Another way of saying what I said above. Soaring probably is one of
the safest sports around in that if you are hurt it will probably be
your own fault in all but a very few cases.
Brian
soar2...@yahoo.com
> safest aviation sport, almost safer than most 'real' sports. You can't
> brake your leg while flying :) Only when you hit the ground :D
>
> Though on a first year 4 pilots that I knew got killed with glider.
> Not a good start. And during the years I have counted over 20
> fatalities where I can say they either they were my friends or I knew
> them well. Plus all the other fatalities. Almost every week on this
> group, we get another sad message informing yet another fatality. And
> most of the cases, pilots has been extremely experiensed. We know that
> they haven't done any stupid moves, they just lost the control of the
> plane on wrong situation or the plane has failed on them. I personally
> feel that I am on the edge to quit this sport because of that. I don't
> want to see not even one more friend passing away. I want to push that
> off my mind.
>
> Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
> me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
> it???
>
> PS
Excuse me here, but what exactly is your f**king point?
If you want to quit, then quit. Nothing that I, or anyone else, can
say is going to change your mind. Really, just post a "For Sale" sign
on your glider and get on with it. BTW, I have permanent knee damage
from playing tenis, but I don't whine about it.
Tom
bumper
wildflowers, the majesty of mountain ranges, fall colors, the first snow,
and of course soaring.
You weigh the risks, you mitigate what you can, you accept those that seem
managable or are worth it.
YES
bumper
mart
gliding is not dangerous, but it can be highly unforgiving.
Every decision should be a consious one.
"Is it safe to fly in that direction?"
"should I fly with a audio vario or flarm?"
"did I do a good preflight check?"
Sometimes when I am confrontated with a difficult decision , I pretend
that I ask my girlfriend ( flies too) would do. That it itself is
already a reason to look for other options.
I also found that it is often not the super pilot that takes the most
chances , but more the sub-top "wanna-be's ".
--
mart
asw22...@gmail.com
> I couldn't imagine life without the smile of a pretty girl, a field of
> wildflowers, the majesty of mountain ranges, fall colors, the first snow,
> and of course soaring.
You left out gadgets Bumper....
patrick.seb...@gmail.com
same situaiton than I am. I have flown almost everywhere and I have
flown numerous competitions plus I have been instructing since 1992.
So I believe I am qualified to fly glider just fine and write about
it.
I am not sure if you guys understood my consern.What happened to those
extremely skillfull pilots ie Geoff Loyns? can the same thing happen
to my other friends or myself. Is it worth trying the thin ice
anymore?
That who said that soaring is not dangerous is wrong. You can get
killed without your own reason. You can just thermal on a 10 footer
and some one who is joining the lift, hits you from behind. Maybe he
didn't see you at all. That has happened numerous times. Luckily most
of them has survived, few didn't.
PS
Robert van de Sandt
I just suggest to read the following
http://www.ls-flugzeugbau.de/safety-comes-first-e.html
and make your own opinion.
Robert
Ian
> I think the most important is to understand the big risk involved, and
> not to be in denial like some posters who believe that as long as you
> are not doing stupid mistakes you are safe.
If that's a reference to me then you have missed my point. Which is
that by no being stupid the risk can be enormously reduced, not that
soaring can be safe. Nothing is safe.
If it's not a reference to me just ignore this!
Ian
Ian
> At my present age, my risk of dying on any given day is in the range
> of 1 in 80.
How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you have a
79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
better survival rate than that ...
Ian
1LK
> How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you
have a
> 79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
> chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
> better survival rate than that ...
>
> Ian
Well under 100. Ian (although not as far under as I'd like). It's a
multifactorial analysis and some of the factors that go into it are
personal, but, given the assumptions, it's probably a decent
characterization. The risk isn't additive, BTW; it remains about the
same day to day as long as the factors used to calculate it are
stable.
Ray Warshaw
1LK
Ian
So you really do only have a 1% chance of being here next year? What
are you doing posting to Usenet - go flying. It's probably not worth
buying a flarm, by the way. Or a parachute.
Ian
Mike Schumann
this by installing a Ballistic Recovery Chut in your glider?
Mike Schumann
<patrick.seb...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1193824682.1...@o38g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com
hret...@aol.com
have no business in an aircraft if you equate it to skating on thin
ice. I figured you scared the crap out of yourself after doing
something stupid. That or you're stringing us along. Maybe you're
looking for attention. God knows.
Go buy a chainsaw and cut down a tree. When you're done , you'll know
what to do.
R
Kloudy via AviationKB.com
> But my
>main consern still is that people dies. Of course you can die
>anywhere, doing anything. But none of my tennis friends hasn't died on
>tennis court. None of my icehockey friends hasn't died on ice rink.
>None of my sailing friends hasn't died while sailing and so on... But
>I've lost and wittnessed way too many fatalities. It totally changes
>your view when you are first person on an fatal accident site. Done
>that 4 times. Sure there has been stupid errors, but still. You can't
>rig your tennis racket wrong...
>
OK..you're thinking too much.
That's the first sign.
Time to quit.
--
Message posted via AviationKB.com
http://www.aviationkb.com/Uwe/Forums.aspx/soaring/200710/1
Bob Kuykendall
> How dangerous is rock climbing.. trained people fall every year and die..
Woot! Stand by for a "wear ur helmet" post from Majid... ;)
Bert Willing
I have come to the same point as Patrick a couple of years ago (although
with just about half the experience) when in my region a had a total of 18
fatalities in one year. Southeastern France is probably the most crowded
gliding aerea you could imagine, but 18 is a lot, and 3 of them were members
of my club.
I was asking myself the question when I would be the next, and I stepped
back from gliding for almost a year to have a thourough thought at it (and
to discuss alot with gliding buddies).
I came to the conclusion that attitude towards the risk of flying is the
most important point, and that the key point for maximum safety is to be
*always* aware of the situation and of one's actual personal abilities and
limits - *always* and in *every* situation. One glitch can be the fatal one.
If others don't follow that rule and have a hard encounter with the planet,
I won't be able to change that.
So I decided to live as best as possible up to that rule, and not to be
negatively influenced by the fate of the 5-10 fellow pilots who die every
year here in Europe.
After that decision, I went and bough my first glider (after 17 years of
club operation).
And I enjoyed every single minute I spent flying it (and the upgrade gliders
which came up eventually). The only question I put myself since was - how to
get more flight time....
Bert
"Kloudy via AviationKB.com" <u33403@uwe> wrote in message
news:7a84aae7eb4e9@uwe...
Bob Kuykendall
> Excuse me here, but what exactly is your f**king point?...
>
> ...Nothing that I, or anyone else, can say is going to change
> your mind...
>
That seems a bit contradictory to me. If nothing said will change his
mind, that kind of takes the point out of saying it. It certainly adds
a bit of a question mark to the f-bomb. Tragedies like the one at hand
often shake people along fault lines they didn't even know existed.
Wandering off-topic, I have to see this most recent accident from the
parental perspective. I've flown with Emil Kissel, and I know that he
has been passionately devoted to soaring, and devoted to promoting and
furthering it. My heart goes out to him. As a parent, I have to look
at soaring through the perspective of, is this something I'd sign the
consent form for? That might sound like an element of triviata, but it
is not. It is, in fact, crucial to the development of soaring as a
sport and crucial to the maintenace of the critical mass that keeps it
viable. We totally need to keep drawing in the kidlings, keep forging
them into safe, conscientious pilots who temper their caution with a
touch of boldness. And we can talk ourselves blue in the face about
how safe soaring can be, how safe the training regime is, how safe
training makes for safe pilots. But that's maybe a tough sell when you
see a lot of what's behind the gelcoat.
Bob K.
Chip Bearden
aggressive cross-country soaring are riskier, still, although they are
typically practiced by more experienced pilots who should (key word)
know how to manage those risks. There's a good article about safety
and risk by former World Champion Bruno Gantenbrink on DG's Web site:
http://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/index-e.html. If you fly cross-country or
competitively and haven't read it, please do.
I grew up mouthing the cliche (an international one, apparently, based
on Bruno's article) that the most dangerous part of soaring was the
drive to the airport. In fact, flying is the most dangerous part. In
40+ years of soaring, I've lost quite a few friends and acquaintances
to glider crashes, including my father and my best friend, both highly
experienced pilots. I've been first on the scene at fatal crashes. I
think about the potential downside consequences of soaring before
every contest and often when driving to the gliderport (although,
oddly, seldom when I'm flying). I've got two 13-year-old daughters who
would be devasted if something happened to me while flying.
Yet I continue to fly. Soaring is the most fulfilling, exciting,
rewarding activity I participate in, and I feel more alive for it.
Nothing matches the exhilaration of completing a task or an ambitious
flight knowing I've flown well. And I'm honest enough to admit that if
soaring were completely risk free, it wouldn't have the same appeal. I
suspect more than a few of my fellow pilots share this "condition"
although I would describe none of them as thrill seekers or dare
devils.
Yet I do everything I can to minimize the risks balanced against my
desire to compete and fly cross country. I bought my current glider
because it had a safety cockpit and impact-absorbing landing gear. I
equipped it with a canopy wire deflector bar, an ELT, a 6-point safety
harness, a rear-view mirror, and more than a gallon of easily
accessible drinking water. All this was to keep me out of trouble and
to help me survive trouble if it occurs. I'm considering installing a
transponder or a portable collision avoidance device to reduce what I
think is my biggest risk currently--being hit by a power plane in the
busy airspace where I fly west of New York City. I'm probably more
cautious than some. I know my limits and don't knowingly exceed them.
Soaring isn't for everyone. One pilot I know, a good one, dropped out
of soaring after his wife got sick and died. As much as he loved
soaring, his children were young and he didn't feel it was fair to
them to continue something that increased the risk they might end up
losing both parents. He intends to get back in the game when they're
older. I think he made the right call for him.
I confess that when I was in my 20s, I not only mouthed the cliche
about driving being more dangerous than flying, but I glorified the
risks that even then I acknowledged existed in order to enhance the
sense that I was doing something special, something extreme, something
most people would never experience. Now in my 50s, I see that part of
the appeal of soaring is the ability to push myself up against the
edge of the cliff, look over it, and then back away. I don't need or
want the risk that a power pilot flying head down and locked will plow
into me from behind (as nearly happened a few months ago) or the risk
that someone above me in the gaggle will make a mistake and spin down
through my altitude (as happened a few years ago). The challenge is to
work with the risks I can control. It's the ones I can't control--and
I'd be in denial if I said they didn't exist--that trouble me. There
are enough of those, plus the risk that I will make a bad mistake
someday (I'm not in denial about that, either), to remind me that
soaring is inherently risky compared with most of the other things I
do. To date, those risks are not sufficient to cause me to quit
soaring. But we're all different and what works for me may not apply
to anyone else.
Chip Bearden
ASW 24 "JB"
USA
Kloudy via AviationKB.com
>Fairly stupid comment.
>
uh, not really.
But despite your poor manner I will elucidate for our thread host.
One year several friends and acquaintances died around me in soaring
accidents.
The year my daughter was born.
Everytime I climbed into the plane I began thinking about how the small
increase in risk to my safety became more acute to those counting on me. The
results of those risks were suddenly clearer, close and personal.
I thought about my friends.
I thought about my family.
Being too careful was starting to interfere with fluid responses to my
piloting.
I was thinking too much. Risk increased.
I Quit for 15 years to reduce the probability of injury in the interest of
those relying on my health.
Returned to soaring as our social/family/financial situation matured.
My mind is not occupied outside the task of piloting anymore.
Too much analysis can be a hazard.
Bill Daniels
My glider is safe. It's tucked away in my garage going nowhere. It's not
going to crash - at least until I fly it. Gliders don't crash, they require
a pilot to crash them. Long ago in the early days of flying it was said
that the weakest link in aviation safety is the "loose nut on the control
stick" meaning the pilot. Pogo said, "We have met the enemy and he is us".
The above is not to denigrate anyone alive or dead. In fact, it's a cut and
paste from an e-mail exchange with Stu Kissel. He thought it was a good
observation.
Pilots can sometimes be described as safe or unsafe. Mostly, there're
somewhere in between. Being human, pilots have good days and bad days. For
a pilot, a bad day can be really bad.
Soaring is neither safe nor unsafe - it's just very unforgiving. If you
aren't rock solid sure of your skills, get a second opinion - fly with an
instructor. In fact, even if you are sure, fly with one anyway. Check
rides fall in the category of "cheap insurance." If you are like nost of us
and fly only 20 or so times a year, your skills will fade so schedule
checkrides twice a year. Your insturctor will appreciate the business - and
applaud your good judgement.
Soaring is mostly done solo. We expect a pilot, alone n the sky, under
significant stress, to function at a very high level with no backup of any
kind. Recently, a very unsettling medical news item said that 50% of the
people in the general population over age 50 had experienced at least one
episode of unexplained loss of consiousness. That makes one think about
2-seaters and a second pilot. It makes me think of Stu.
My condolences to everyone - we're all family.
Bill Daniels
1LK
> On 31 Oct, 11:32, 1LK <rwars...@mannkindcorp.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Oct 31, 5:36 am, Ian <ian.gro...@btinternet.com> wrote:
> > > How old are you? A 1 in 80 chance of dying today means that you
> > have a
>
> > > 79 in 80 chance of making it to tomorrow, which is a (79/80)^365 = 1%
> > > chance of making it through a year. I'll bet even 100 year olds have a
> > > better survival rate than that ...
>
> > > Ian
>
> > Well under 100. Ian (although not as far under as I'd like). It's a
neither cumulative or additive. I have a 98.75% chance of being here
tomorrow; on a day a year from now I'll have roughly the same odds of
being here a day after that.
I do wear a parachute, BTW, but again, given my age and condition,
it's not certain that I could extract myself successfully from a lawn
dart. I wear it because I'd rather be busy trying to use it, than
sitting on my hands waiting to hit the ground.
As you know, FLARM isn't usable here (US), but I'm planning to add a
transponder and an ELT this year. I take aspirin as well. Not sure
why I post to Usinet, perhaps the riskiest activity of all.
I control what I can and accept the rest and, yes, I think I'll go
flying.
Ray Warshaw
1LK
> > multifactorial analysis and some of the factors that go into it are
> > personal, but, given the assumptions, it's probably a decent
> > characterization. The risk isn't additive, BTW; it remains about the
> > same day to day as long as the factors used to calculate it are
> > stable.
>
> So you really do only have a 1% chance of being here next year? What
> are you doing posting to Usenet - go flying. It's probably not worth
> buying a flarm, by the way. Or a parachute.
>
> Ian- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -