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Predictions about Putin from Daily Beast
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a425couple
Jan 26, 2023, 2:20:39 PM1/26/23
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And then, there is this,
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ex-kremlin-aide-abbas-gallyamov-predicts-military-soup-against-putin
DAILY BEAST
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CHEAT SHEET
NEWSLETTERS
Putin’s Former Speechwriter Predicts Military Coup in Russia
‘SECOND-RATE DICTATOR’
“Anger at the authorities allowing a criminal to walk all over them is
growing stronger.”
Allison Quinn
News Editor
Updated Jan. 26, 2023 1:14PM ET Published Jan. 26, 2023 9:40AM ET
Contributor#8523328
A former Kremlin aide is warning that as Moscow blindly pursues its
bloody conquest in Ukraine, the situation at home is quietly heading
towards a military coup.
Abbas Gallyamov, Vladimir Putin’s former speechwriter, says the
conditions are already there for a full revolt.
“The longer the war drags on, the clearer its pointlessness becomes,”
Gallyamov writes in a new column for opposition media outlet Mozhem
Obyasnit.
The Russian public has largely begun to realize that the Kremlin’s dream
of toppling the Kyiv “regime” is not going to happen, Gallyamov notes,
and the consolation prize of new “Russian” territories is not winning
anybody over.
Discord is also growing in the military, he argues, where “[Wagner boss
Yevgeny] Prigozhin has completely discredited the regime in the eyes of
service members with his rhetoric, and anger at the authorities allowing
a criminal to walk all over them is growing stronger.”
Putin’s Chef Threatens Traitors With ‘Sledgehammer’
‘CRIMINAL TALENTS’
Allison Quinn
Putin’s cunning, “macho” image has also disintegrated, Gallyamov writes:
“As problems pile up in the country and the army that the authorities
are unable to solve, Putin is more steadily transforming in people’s
eyes from a great strategist to an ordinary, second-rate dictator.”
After months of widespread reports on Russian troops rebelling against
their commanders, going public with complaints about top military brass,
or deserting the war altogether, Gallyamov notes that all it takes to
light the fuse of a full military coup is a little more organization.
“It must be understood that the vast majority of commanders in the army
of an authoritarian nation are not staunch supporters of the
authorities, but run-of-the-mill opportunists,” he argues.
So once a revolt begins and “yesterday’s loyalties” vanish, military
commanders will fight for whoever seems most likely to win, according to
Gallyamov. “If complaints against authorities seem convincing to [a
commander], then he will most likely decide that that [regime] will not
stand against a wave of public anger. And if that’s the case, there’s no
reason not to join.”
In addition to the myriad reports about troops revolting against and in
some cases even attacking their own commanders, thousands more Russian
soldiers have voluntarily handed themselves over to Ukrainian
authorities to avoid taking part in the war.
A representative for a Ukrainian hotline called “I Want to Live” told
The Guardian on Thursday that a total of 6,543 Russian troops had called
up seeking to surrender to the Ukrainian government in a span of about
four months.
“During the liberation of Kherson, we had calls from Russians and they
told us, ‘Just save our souls because we got stuck somewhere in the mud,
our battalion is totally crushed, we have 10 soldiers left, please take
us from this mess,” Vitali Matvienko was quoted saying.
He did not say how many of those phone calls led to completed surrenders.
While Russian troops had once bragged about what they were sure would be
a lightning-fast takeover of Ukraine, ordinary Russian citizens are now
instead seeing a steady drip of death at home, with billboards going up
advertising funeral services for “Cargo 200,” a military term for those
killed in action.
Incidentally, Russia’s funeral services industry may be one of the only
sectors of the economy to hit the jackpot in the war, even as other
industries suffer from international sanctions.
The Insider reports that the industry is blowing up at a record pace and
crematoriums are “growing exponentially.”
The owner of a crematorium in Novosibirsk told the outlet there’s so
much demand he’s planning to open a whole new military section in the
spring.
“Everything will be in the military style, we’ll even set up a cannon,”
he said, adding that manufacturers had also begun offering camouflage
coffins and “a lot of military paraphernalia.”
Although they may not prove that popular. “Apparently for the relatives
it has bad associations,” he said.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ex-kremlin-aide-abbas-gallyamov-predicts-military-soup-against-putin
DAILY BEAST
SUBSCRIBE
CHEAT SHEET
NEWSLETTERS
Putin’s Former Speechwriter Predicts Military Coup in Russia
‘SECOND-RATE DICTATOR’
“Anger at the authorities allowing a criminal to walk all over them is
growing stronger.”
Allison Quinn
News Editor
Updated Jan. 26, 2023 1:14PM ET Published Jan. 26, 2023 9:40AM ET
Contributor#8523328
A former Kremlin aide is warning that as Moscow blindly pursues its
bloody conquest in Ukraine, the situation at home is quietly heading
towards a military coup.
Abbas Gallyamov, Vladimir Putin’s former speechwriter, says the
conditions are already there for a full revolt.
“The longer the war drags on, the clearer its pointlessness becomes,”
Gallyamov writes in a new column for opposition media outlet Mozhem
Obyasnit.
The Russian public has largely begun to realize that the Kremlin’s dream
of toppling the Kyiv “regime” is not going to happen, Gallyamov notes,
and the consolation prize of new “Russian” territories is not winning
anybody over.
Discord is also growing in the military, he argues, where “[Wagner boss
Yevgeny] Prigozhin has completely discredited the regime in the eyes of
service members with his rhetoric, and anger at the authorities allowing
a criminal to walk all over them is growing stronger.”
Putin’s Chef Threatens Traitors With ‘Sledgehammer’
‘CRIMINAL TALENTS’
Allison Quinn
Putin’s cunning, “macho” image has also disintegrated, Gallyamov writes:
“As problems pile up in the country and the army that the authorities
are unable to solve, Putin is more steadily transforming in people’s
eyes from a great strategist to an ordinary, second-rate dictator.”
After months of widespread reports on Russian troops rebelling against
their commanders, going public with complaints about top military brass,
or deserting the war altogether, Gallyamov notes that all it takes to
light the fuse of a full military coup is a little more organization.
“It must be understood that the vast majority of commanders in the army
of an authoritarian nation are not staunch supporters of the
authorities, but run-of-the-mill opportunists,” he argues.
So once a revolt begins and “yesterday’s loyalties” vanish, military
commanders will fight for whoever seems most likely to win, according to
Gallyamov. “If complaints against authorities seem convincing to [a
commander], then he will most likely decide that that [regime] will not
stand against a wave of public anger. And if that’s the case, there’s no
reason not to join.”
In addition to the myriad reports about troops revolting against and in
some cases even attacking their own commanders, thousands more Russian
soldiers have voluntarily handed themselves over to Ukrainian
authorities to avoid taking part in the war.
A representative for a Ukrainian hotline called “I Want to Live” told
The Guardian on Thursday that a total of 6,543 Russian troops had called
up seeking to surrender to the Ukrainian government in a span of about
four months.
“During the liberation of Kherson, we had calls from Russians and they
told us, ‘Just save our souls because we got stuck somewhere in the mud,
our battalion is totally crushed, we have 10 soldiers left, please take
us from this mess,” Vitali Matvienko was quoted saying.
He did not say how many of those phone calls led to completed surrenders.
While Russian troops had once bragged about what they were sure would be
a lightning-fast takeover of Ukraine, ordinary Russian citizens are now
instead seeing a steady drip of death at home, with billboards going up
advertising funeral services for “Cargo 200,” a military term for those
killed in action.
Incidentally, Russia’s funeral services industry may be one of the only
sectors of the economy to hit the jackpot in the war, even as other
industries suffer from international sanctions.
The Insider reports that the industry is blowing up at a record pace and
crematoriums are “growing exponentially.”
The owner of a crematorium in Novosibirsk told the outlet there’s so
much demand he’s planning to open a whole new military section in the
spring.
“Everything will be in the military style, we’ll even set up a cannon,”
he said, adding that manufacturers had also begun offering camouflage
coffins and “a lot of military paraphernalia.”
Although they may not prove that popular. “Apparently for the relatives
it has bad associations,” he said.
Matthew
Jan 26, 2023, 7:46:24 PM1/26/23
to
I think rumors of a coup are meant to destabilize Russia through the promotion of fear and uncertainty, but they're probably not serious. Putin represents the system, the siloviki, eg. ex-KGB who control the levers of power in Russia Putin also represents the hardline attitude of many of the Russian people.
Even if Putin were replaced, most likely it would not change Russia's trajectory. Things are already in motion. WMDs have already been released. It would probably just accelerate the path to war, since Russia would likely believe the West had a hand in it.
Even if Putin were replaced, most likely it would not change Russia's trajectory. Things are already in motion. WMDs have already been released. It would probably just accelerate the path to war, since Russia would likely believe the West had a hand in it.
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