Russia/Ukraine cont.

[Matthew]

>Kyiv mayor says 'apocalypse' scenario possible this winter, but urges no panic

>"Kyiv might lose power, water, and heat supply. The apocalypse might happen, like in Hollywood films, when it's not possible to live in homes considering the low temperature," Mayor Vitali Klitschko told Reuters in an interview.

>Klitschko urged residents to prepare emergency supplies of food and water, as well as to have clothes and documents ready for a quick departure if the heating supply is turned off.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-724298

[a425couple]

On 12/7/22 11:27, Matthew wrote:
>> Kyiv mayor says 'apocalypse' scenario possible this winter, but urges no panic
>

> https://www.jpost.com/international/article-724298

Life is certainly tough there.
But, good for them, they have hope.

And they have really hurt the power of
big nasty feared Bear.
That Bear has gone from all conquering,
to wounded, with many broken teeth and
bleeding gums.

The Free World owes Ukraine a favor,
countries like Poland and Finland just
need to improve their military preparedness,
and then they will never again feel threatened.

[Matthew]

Not just Poland and Finland. Russia can strike practically anywhere, and probably will soon (through proxies, at first). We live in a globalized world with far-reaching technology.

[Jim Wilkins]

"Matthew" wrote in message
news:73b780d2-4b53-499b...@googlegroups.com...

Not just Poland and Finland. Russia can strike practically anywhere, and
probably will soon (through proxies, at first). We live in a globalized
world with far-reaching technology.

-----------------------

Terrorists can strike practically anywhere too, with nearly the same
capability short of nukes if they smuggle in the explosives by hiding them
under the drugs. Like Pearl Harbor and 9/11 they only justify larger scale
retaliation.

[Matthew]

Yes, that's why I said "by proxy, at first". Russia is arming Jihadists with nukes and other WMDs.

>smugglers are explicitly targeting buyers who are enemies of the West.
>The man behind the bomb-grade uranium deal was Alexandr Agheenco, known as "the colonel"...
>...the colonel fled with his infant son through Ukraine to Russia shortly after the bust
https://apnews.com/article/9f77a17c001f4cf3baeb28990b0d92eb

>U.S. authorities uncovered numerous attempts by Al-Qaeda to obtain nuclear materials and fear that terrorists have already bought uranium.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8471907/WikiLeaks-Guantanamo-Bay-terrorist-secrets-revealed.html

>"North Korea has a record of missile sales and nuclear technology sharing with countries including Egypt, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, and Yemen." [North Korea launders Russian tech]
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-missile-tests-military-capabilities

>It is impossible to know how many Russians have been recruited abroad, but there is no doubt that their expertise has been attracting bidders.... I've heard that several went to Iraq and North Korea. A former colleague, now the director of a Biopreparat institute, told me that five of our scientists are in Iran.
https://www.google.com/books/edition/Biohazard/wxfSAgAAQBAJ

>FBI Director James Comey warned... future attacks will be on "an order of magnitude greater."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/fbi-chief-warns-terrorist-diaspora-will-be-coming-to-the-west

>There are large stockpiles of nerve agents which, if obtained by terrorists, could be released
https://www.osha.gov/emergency-preparedness/guides/nerve-agents

>CBRN substances have been carried undetected into the EU
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/572806/EPRS_BRI(2015)572806_EN.pdf

[Matthew]

>Huge explosions were heard in Russia on Friday morning as a massive fire ripped through a Moscow shopping mall
https://www.newsweek.com/explosions-russia-moscow-fire-moscow-khimki-shopping-mall-1765837

https://twitter.com/typicaldonetsk/status/1601078695778975744

[Matthew]

>Vladimir Putin said Russia may consider formally adding the possibility of a preventive nuclear first strike to disarm an opponent to its military doctrine, just days after warning that the risk of atomic war is rising.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/putin-says-russia-may-add-nuclear-first-strike-to-strategy
https://archive.vn/gxgPY

>The head of NATO expressed worry that the fighting in Ukraine could spin out of control and become a war between Russia and NATO
>“If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in remarks to Norwegian broadcaster NRK.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-jens-stoltenberg-government-f01121d32693881920b1fe5e8c75b22d

[Matthew]

>All non-critical infrastructure in Odesa was left without power after Russia used Iranian-made drones to hit two energy facilities, Ukrainian authorities said, adding it could take months to repair the damage.

>Zelenskyy said that more than 1.5 million people in the southern Ukrainian port city were without electricity.

>The regional administration said people who relied solely on electricity to power their homes should consider leaving.

>“According to preliminary forecasts, it will take much more time to restore energy facilities in the Odesa region than after previous attacks,” the administration said.

>“We are talking not about days, but even weeks and possibly even two to three months”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/10/ukraines-odesa-plunged-into-darkness-after-energy-facilities-hit

[Matthew]

>Pentagon gives Ukraine green light for drone strikes inside Russia
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-drone-warfare-russia-732jsshpx

>A salvo of Ukrainian Himars missiles fired against a Russian makeshift barracks has killed or wounded as many as 200 troops, Ukrainian officials claimed.
>US Himars destroy Russian Barracks
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/11/ukraine-russia-war-attack-himars-melitopol

>Ukraine 'destroys Wagner HQ in Luhansk'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/11/ukraine-russia-war-news-putin-nuclear-iran-drones-latest

[Matthew]

>Three major fires broke out in Moscow on December 10, raising suspicions of arson attacks by Ukrainian saboteurs.
>Fire consumed the OBI shopping mall at the Mega retail complex in the Khimki region of Moscow not far from capital’s main airport, Sheremetyevo International Airport.
>Another fire destroyed the Mikoyanovsky meat factory on Moscow’s Volgogradsky Prospekt in southeast Moscow.
>And a third broke out at the Pushkin national art gallery in central Moscow, although none of its world-famous art was destroyed, according to preliminary reports.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/three-fires-in-moscow-raise-suspicions-of-ukrainian-arson-attacks/ar-AA159Jvp

[Matthew]

>A massive fire gutted a shopping mall on Moscow’s eastern outskirts on Monday, the second such blaze in four days.
https://apnews.com/article/business-moscow-bec313ff5566ae5c78f4820ff1385cb2

[Matthew]

>Moscow said Monday that its air defense systems had shot down four US-made missiles over a southern Russian region bordering Ukraine, in one of its first such claims in nearly 10 months of fighting.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/12/19/Moscow-says-shot-down-four-US-made-missiles-over-southern-Russia-

[Matthew]

>Three killed in mysterious explosion at Russian gas pipeline supplying Europe
https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/20/three-killed-in-mysterious-explosion-at-russian-gas-pipeline-supplying-europe

[Matthew]

>Belarus says its Russian S-400, Iskander missiles enter ‘combat duty’
https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-says-russian-400-iskander-180043511.html

>US to send precision bomb kits and Patriot missiles in next Ukraine aid package, officials say
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics/us-ukraine-munitions-patriot-missiles/index.html

>Russia warns of ‘consequences’ if U.S. sends Patriot missiles to Ukraine
>Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a weekly briefing Thursday that “the U.S. has effectively become a party” to the war in Ukraine, following reports that it will provide Kyiv with Patriot surface-to-air missiles, the most advanced the West has yet provided to help Ukraine’s military repel Russian aerial attacks.
>Zakharova added that growing amounts of U.S. military assistance, including the transfer of such sophisticated weapons, “would mean even broader involvement of military personnel in the hostilities and could entail possible consequences.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-warns-of-consequences-if-u-s-sends-patriot-missiles-sent-to-ukraine

[Matthew]

>Massive explosion rips through Russian oil and gas field sparking 'Armageddon' blaze – amid wave of suspicious fires hitting country's infrastructure
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11553783/Massive-explosion-rips-Russian-oil-gas-field-sparking-Armageddon-blaze.html

[Matthew]

>Russian State TV Host Says West Will Be 'Reduced to Ashes' if War Is Lost

>Solovyov said: "We live in latter days. What's happening in Ukraine won't stay in Ukraine. A holy war is underway."

>"When people are trying to tell me about whether nuclear weapons can be used or not, I will respond to that briefly and clearly, 'do you remember this part of Biblical history?' Sodom and Gomorrah?'"
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-host-says-west-will-reduced-ashes-nuclear-war-1767985

[Jim Wilkins]

"Matthew" wrote in message
news:e1313132-0cff-4f9a...@googlegroups.com...

------------------------

A fundamental of deterrence theory is having enough survivable assets to
devastate an enemy who strikes first.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_strike

It presupposes rational leadership, though Hitler and the Jewish revolt
against Rome showed that a leader who believes his nation failed him may
allow its destruction as punishment.
https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/69593/pg69593-images.html

Ironically the Romans were only in Judea because a previous leader had
invited and bribed them to help him defeat his rival brother. Once there
Pompey realized that neither was fit to rule.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasmonean_dynasty

WW1 demonstrated that less than complete domination of the loser may
encourage them to try again later.

[Matthew]

All true, though there are problems with deterrence beyond a suicidal leader. A leader may also miscalculate. Totalitarians don't get the best advice, they are surrounded by sycophants. Events can also cascade out of control. Rogue commanders may escalate on their own. It is also known that terrorist groups currently possess WMDs. If jihadists nuke Washington DC with a stolen or sold Russian nuke, do we retaliate against Moscow? Probably not right away, but the prospect of Western "decision-making centers" evaporating one after the other without eventual retribution against Russia is pretty low. The use of WMDs in general is a slippery slope.

After the first nuke(s) we will probably invade Iran. Note that there was coordination between Al Qaeda and Iran prior to 9/11, and also possibly Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks#Iran

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayman_al-Zawahiri#Activities_in_Russia

[Matthew]

>Russia’s ‘Most Elite’ Tank Unit Raised For Defense Of Moscow & Clash With NATO Trains For ‘Kyiv Invasion’ In Belarus
https://eurasiantimes.com/russias-most-elite-tank-unit-raised-for-defense-of-moscow

[Matthew]

>Drone attack on airbase deep inside Russia kills three
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/26/ukraine-russia-war-latest-blasts-reported-military-airbase-deep/

[Matthew]

>Russia’s Lavrov issues ultimatum to Ukraine: ‘For your own good’

>Fulfil Moscow’s demands, ‘otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army’, Russia’s foreign minister said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/27/russias-lavrov-issues-ultimatum-to-ukraine-for-your-own-good

[Matthew]

>Russian ally Belarus said on Thursday that its air defense shot down a missile launched from Ukrainian territory, in the first such incident reported by Minsk since the start of Moscow's Ukraine offensive.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/29/ukrainian-missile-reportedly-hits-belarus-a79836

[Matthew]

https://twitter.com/oleksiydanilov/status/1609136201662857216

[Matthew]

>https://twitter.com/oleksiydanilov/status/1609136201662857216

note the ending

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/19/1029437787/in-1991-soviet-citizens-saw-swans-on-the-tv-and-knew-it-meant-turmoil

[Matthew]

>Patriarch of Moscow and Russia Kirill stated the relations between the countries have deteriorated and due to distrust, there is a threat of a large-scale war.
https://twitter.com/b92english/status/1609726952364990466

>The whole world is in danger: "We are threatened with a large-scale war"

>"We are all witnessing a very tense atmosphere and mistrust between countries, and this tension is growing and threatens to turn into a large-scale war. Relations have gone backwards, given that they have deteriorated so much," said Patriarch Kirill, reports Sputnik.

>Patriarch of Moscow and Russia Kirill added that humanity has never had such a terrible weaponry as today, which is accumulating. "And if that arsenal of weapons does not correspond to the moral state of the human race, then does not the threat that these weapons will be used increase? This testifies to the fact that the scientific development of human civilization cannot ensure either the happiness or the safety of people," said the Russian Patriarch.
https://archive.is/uz41I

[Matthew]

>Russia has seen in the new year with nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, hundreds of kilometres from the front lines. This marks a change in tactics after months in which Moscow usually spaced such strikes around a week apart.
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-drones-attack-critical-infrastructure-031036666.html

[Matthew]

>Putin deploys new Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles to Atlantic
https://archive.is/SxBl3

[Matthew]

>Belarus Sign Calls For 'All Male Citizens' To Attend Enlistment Office
https://www.newsweek.com/belarus-russia-ukraine-enlistment-office-lukashenko-1771266

>Russia and Belarus beef up joint military grouping
>The [Belarusian Defence Ministry] said "combat coordination activities" were planned as well as air force drills.
>"Personnel, weapons, military and special equipment of the armed forces of the Russian Federation will continue to arrive in the Republic of Belarus," the ministry said.
https://archive.is/vWnq4

[Matthew]

>An Il-76 A-50U aircraft, designed to track air and surface targets, arrived at the Machulishchy airfield in Belarus from Russia.
>The last time, this aircraft arrived in Belarus on 24 February 2022.
https://news.yahoo.com/aew-c-aircraft-helps-targeting-201700572.html