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Chase so far
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John McCoy
Apr 14, 2014, 9:39:24 AM4/14/14
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With his second win, Harvick is now virtually assured being
in the Chase. The first 15 positions in the Chase go to
winning drivers, ranked in order of number of wins. There
obviously aren't enough races for there to be more than 15
drivers with two wins, so the only way Harvick could fail
to make the Chase would be if he missed a race without getting
a medical exemption.
Winners so far (and thus presumed Chase qualifiers):
Harvick
Edwards
Earnhardt
Busch
Keselowski
Logano
Busch
John
in the Chase. The first 15 positions in the Chase go to
winning drivers, ranked in order of number of wins. There
obviously aren't enough races for there to be more than 15
drivers with two wins, so the only way Harvick could fail
to make the Chase would be if he missed a race without getting
a medical exemption.
Winners so far (and thus presumed Chase qualifiers):
Harvick
Edwards
Earnhardt
Busch
Keselowski
Logano
Busch
John
bob.p...@gmail.com
Apr 14, 2014, 11:08:49 PM4/14/14
to
On Monday, April 14, 2014 8:40:01 AM UTC-4, John McCoy wrote:
> Winners so far (and thus presumed Chase qualifiers):
>
> Harvick
> Edwards
> Earnhardt
> Busch
> Keselowski
> Logano
> Busch
That's one short of half the Chase field. Let's see who might make up the
> Winners so far (and thus presumed Chase qualifiers):
>
> Harvick
> Edwards
> Earnhardt
> Busch
> Keselowski
> Logano
> Busch
other half.
No doubt Jimmie Johnson leads that list. I also think it's a pretty safe bet
we'll see Kenseth in Victory Lane before September, so that's nine.
I'd expect at least three, probably four winners from this group:
Kahne
Gordon
Bowyer
Hamlin
Biffle
Stewart
Newman
That brings the total to 13. Of course anything goes on the plate tracks, but
I think that's going to be it for the winners list.
My "could win but don't bet on it" list includes
McMurray
Larson
Vickers
Stenhouse
Almirola
Ambrose
Menard
Dillon
Truex
Everybody else joins Danica on my "if everyone else stays home" list.
John McCoy
Apr 15, 2014, 12:18:08 PM4/15/14
to
bob.p...@gmail.com wrote in
news:ae336d16-45bb-4f10...@googlegroups.com:
> That brings the total to 13. Of course anything goes on the plate
> tracks, but I think that's going to be it for the winners list.
Yeah, that's a hard one to guess. Last year there were 18
winners, all in the top 30 in points. Two of them did not
attempt all the races (Hamlin and Stewart), but presumably
both would have been granted a medical exemption.
In 2012, 15 winners (one, Earnhardt, did not attempt all the
races, but again would presumably get the medical).
In 2011, 18 winners. One did not attempt all the races (Bayne).
In 2010, 13 winners. All attempted all the races.
In 2009, 14 winners. One did not attempt all the races (Keselowski).
In 2008, 12 winners. All attempted all the races.
In 2007, 16 winners. All attempted all the races.
Now, it's likely that in some of those years some of the race
winners won their only race in the last 10, so the number of
Chase-qualifying wins would be less (but I don't have time to
dig into the results that far). So 13 winners in the qualifying
races seems like a reasonable guess.
I agree with your likely winner analysis, with the one caveat
that I think Ambrose is likely to take one or both of the road
course events.
John
news:ae336d16-45bb-4f10...@googlegroups.com:
> That brings the total to 13. Of course anything goes on the plate
> tracks, but I think that's going to be it for the winners list.
winners, all in the top 30 in points. Two of them did not
attempt all the races (Hamlin and Stewart), but presumably
both would have been granted a medical exemption.
In 2012, 15 winners (one, Earnhardt, did not attempt all the
races, but again would presumably get the medical).
In 2011, 18 winners. One did not attempt all the races (Bayne).
In 2010, 13 winners. All attempted all the races.
In 2009, 14 winners. One did not attempt all the races (Keselowski).
In 2008, 12 winners. All attempted all the races.
In 2007, 16 winners. All attempted all the races.
Now, it's likely that in some of those years some of the race
winners won their only race in the last 10, so the number of
Chase-qualifying wins would be less (but I don't have time to
dig into the results that far). So 13 winners in the qualifying
races seems like a reasonable guess.
I agree with your likely winner analysis, with the one caveat
that I think Ambrose is likely to take one or both of the road
course events.
John
a425couple
Apr 16, 2014, 12:16:04 PM4/16/14
to
"John McCoy" <igo...@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message...
> bob.p...@gmail.com wrote in
> In 2012, 15 winners
> In 2011, 18 winners. --
> In 2010, 13 winners. --
> In 2009, 14 winners. --
> In 2008, 12 winners. --
> In 2007, 16 winners.
Is there anywhere convienient that lists the number
of winners in the first 26 races?
> bob.p...@gmail.com wrote in
>> That brings the total to 13. Of course anything goes on the plate
>> tracks, but I think that's going to be it for the winners list.
>
> --- Last year there were 18 winners, ---
>> tracks, but I think that's going to be it for the winners list.
>
> In 2012, 15 winners
> In 2011, 18 winners. --
> In 2010, 13 winners. --
> In 2009, 14 winners. --
> In 2008, 12 winners. --
> In 2007, 16 winners.
> Now, it's likely that in some of those years some of the race
> winners won their only race in the last 10, so the number of
> Chase-qualifying wins would be less (but I don't have time to
> dig into the results that far). So 13 winners in the qualifying
> races seems like a reasonable guess.
Yes.
> winners won their only race in the last 10, so the number of
> Chase-qualifying wins would be less (but I don't have time to
> dig into the results that far). So 13 winners in the qualifying
> races seems like a reasonable guess.
Is there anywhere convienient that lists the number
of winners in the first 26 races?
John McCoy
Apr 17, 2014, 10:48:39 AM4/17/14
to
"a425couple" <a425c...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:lim6lk02136
@news1.newsguy.com:
Nowhere that I know of. If I counted right looking at the
standings on Racing Reference, I get:
2013, 13 winners pre-Chase, 16 total.
2012, 15 winners pre-Chase, 15 total.
2011, 16 winners pre-Chase, 18 total.
2010, 11 winners pre-Chase, 13 total.
for the last 4 years. I also note that I miscounted the total
number of winners for 2013 in my prior post, it should have
been 16.
So that says that typically there are 15 or fewer winners in
the pre-Chase races, and that typically there are 2 or 3 who
get their first win of the year in the Chase.
John
@news1.newsguy.com:
standings on Racing Reference, I get:
2013, 13 winners pre-Chase, 16 total.
2012, 15 winners pre-Chase, 15 total.
2011, 16 winners pre-Chase, 18 total.
2010, 11 winners pre-Chase, 13 total.
for the last 4 years. I also note that I miscounted the total
number of winners for 2013 in my prior post, it should have
been 16.
So that says that typically there are 15 or fewer winners in
the pre-Chase races, and that typically there are 2 or 3 who
get their first win of the year in the Chase.
John
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