Chase so far, take three

[John McCoy]

With 5 races left before the Chase, drivers have started to
become "locked in", with no way they could be overtaken for
a Chase spot (i.e. they cannot finish 35th or worse in points).
All the locked in drivers have to do is attempt the remaining
5 races to qualify for the Chase.

Definately in:

Johnson (3 wins)
Earnhardt (3)
Keselowski (3)
Harvick (2)
Gordon (2)
Logano (2)
Edwards (2)

Almost, 99.99999% certainly in:

Kyle Busch (1 win, 10th in points)

Probably in:

Hamlin (1 win, 21st in points) (*)
Almirola (1, 22nd)
Kurt Busch (1, 23rd)

Probably in on points:

Kenseth (4th)
Newman (5th)

Need a win to be sure:

Bowyer (10th in points)
Larson (12th)
Biffle (13th, currently 16th in Chase standings)
Kahne (14th, first out on points, 1 back of Biffle)
Dillon (15th, 2 back)

Need a win, period:

Stewart (19th in points, 54 back of Biffle)
McMurray (20th, 55 back)

Menard, Ambrose, and Vickers fall into the "long shot" catgory,
altho Ambrose likely has the best chance at Watkins Glen.

(* Hamlin has not attempted all races, but has a medical exemption)


My guess is the Chase field will be the winners above, plus
Kenseth, Newman, and Bowyer, and two of Larson/Biffle/Kahne/
Dillon. Based on how they've run this year, I don't see any
of the non-winners getting a win in the last 5 races (Ambrose
probably has the best chance, but that team just doesn't seem
motivated in the last few races); and I don't see anyone behind
Dillon making a big jump in points.

John

[John McCoy]

John McCoy <igo...@ix.netcom.com> wrote in
news:XnsA37F652E6B2...@78.46.70.116:

With 4 races left before the Chase, no additional drivers have

become "locked in", with no way they could be overtaken for
a Chase spot (i.e. they cannot finish 35th or worse in points).

Kyle Busch's 40th place finish leaves him a couple of points
short of locking in.

Only change this week is adding Allmendinger to the probable
list, and marking Stewart as out.

Definately in:

Johnson (3 wins)
Earnhardt (3)
Keselowski (3)
Harvick (2)
Gordon (2)
Logano (2)
Edwards (2)

Almost, 99.99999% certainly in:

Kyle Busch (1 win, 15th in points)

Probably in:

Hamlin (1 win, 20st in points) (*)

Almirola (1, 22nd)
Kurt Busch (1, 23rd)

Allmendinger (1, 24th)

Probably in on points:

Kenseth (3rd)

Need a win to be sure:

Newman (9th in points)
Larson (10th)
Bowyer (11th currently 16th in Chase standings)

Biffle (12th, first out on points, 8 back of Bowyer)
Kahne (13th, 12 back)
Dillon (15th, 18 back)

Need a win, period:

Ambrose (16th, 50 back)
Menard (17th, 60 back)
Vickers (18th, 61 back)
McMurray (19th, 68 back)

Definately out of the Chase:

Stewart (has not attempted all races)

(* Hamlin has not attempted all races, but has a medical exemption.
As far as I have read, there will be no exemption for Stewart)

John

[John McCoy]

John McCoy <igo...@ix.netcom.com> wrote in

news:XnsA3865BA6A46...@78.46.70.116:

With 3 races left before the Chase, all the drivers with at
least one win have become "locked in", with no way they could

be overtaken for a Chase spot (i.e. they cannot finish 35th
or worse in points).

Definately in:

Johnson (3 wins)
Earnhardt (3)
Keselowski (3)
Harvick (2)
Gordon (2)
Logano (2)
Edwards (2)

Kyle Busch (1)
Hamlin (1) (*)
Almirola (1)
Kurt Busch (1)
Allmendinger (1)

Probably in on points:

Kenseth (5th)

Need a win to be sure:

Newman (9th in points)

Bowyer (10th)
Biffle (11th, currently 16th in Chase standings)

Kahne (12th, 9 back of Biffle)
Dillon (13th, 22 back)
Larson (14th, 24 back)

Need a win, period:

Ambrose (16th, 44 back)

Probably out of it:

Menard (17th, 62 back)
Vickers (18th, 78 back)
McMurray (19th, 80 back)

Definately out of the Chase:

Stewart (has not attempted all races)

(* Hamlin has not attempted all races, but has a medical exemption)

Bristol, next up, has been a good race for Kahne, Ambrose, and
Menard in recent years; not so much so for the other contenders.

John

[John McCoy]

With 2 races left before the Chase, no new drivers are locked
in, still at 12.

Definately in:

Johnson (3 wins)
Earnhardt (3)
Keselowski (3)

Logano (3)
Harvick (2)
Gordon (2)

Edwards (2)
Kyle Busch (1)
Hamlin (1) (*)
Almirola (1)
Kurt Busch (1)
Allmendinger (1)

In on points:

Kenseth (5th)

Need a win to be sure:

Newman (9th in points)
Bowyer (10th)
Biffle (11th, currently 16th in Chase standings)

Larson (12th, 26 back of Biffle)
Kahne (13th, 33 back)
Dillon (14th, 40 back)
Menard (15th, 45 back)

(* Hamlin has not attempted all races, but has a medical exemption)

With two races left, it's a certainity that two drivers
will get in on points (there can be at most two more first
time winners). Kenseth is 41 up on Newman and 83 up on Larson,
so the odds of all four of Newman, Bowyer, Biffle and Larson
overtaking him in points are essentially nil.

John

[John McCoy]

Just 1 race left before the Chase, and predictably the field
is filling in. Kahne and Kenseth lock in, leaving two positions
to be decided at Richmond.

Definately in:

Johnson (3 wins)
Earnhardt (3)
Keselowski (3)
Logano (3)
Harvick (2)
Gordon (2)
Edwards (2)
Kyle Busch (1)
Hamlin (1) (*)
Almirola (1)
Kurt Busch (1)
Allmendinger (1)

Kahne (1)
Kenseth (5th in points)

Likely in by points:

Newman (9th in points)
Biffle (10th, currently 16th in Chase standings)

Need a win to get in:

Bowyer (12th in points, 23 back of Biffle)
Larson (13th, 24 back of Biffle)

Menard (14th, 53 back)
Dillon (15th, 54 back)
McMurray (16th, 62 back)
Vickers (18th, 77 back)

In theory Bowyer or Larson could overtake Biffle on points,
but the gap is big enough Biffle would basically have to
DNF for that to happen. Everyone else can only get in by
winning, as the gap is more than one race's points.

(* Hamlin has not attempted all races, but has a medical exemption)

John

[bob.p...@gmail.com]

On Monday, September 1, 2014 10:20:02 AM UTC-4, John McCoy wrote:

> Just 1 race left before the Chase, and predictably the field
> is filling in. Kahne and Kenseth lock in, leaving two positions
> to be decided at Richmond.
>

Well, my money says the field is set--no new winner and Biffle and Newman get in
on points.

Who's going to win it all? Logano.

[John McCoy]

bob.p...@gmail.com wrote in
news:2a9045a1-72f8-4363...@googlegroups.com:

> Well, my money says the field is set--no new winner and Biffle and
> Newman get in on points.
>
> Who's going to win it all? Logano.

An RPG! Wow, it's almost like the old days...

OK, I'll RPG too. I also say the field is set, and Biffle
and Newman will be in.

And I'll go with Harvick as the champion.

And I'll predict Stewart will win a race during the Chase.

John

[John McCoy]

John McCoy <igo...@ix.netcom.com> wrote in

news:XnsA39D66897AA...@78.46.70.116:

> bob.p...@gmail.com wrote in
> news:2a9045a1-72f8-4363...@googlegroups.com:
>

>> Who's going to win it all? Logano.

> And I'll go with Harvick as the champion.

Well, here's an interesting thought. The way the Chase is
setup, now, the champion is the guy who finishes best at
Homestead; the prior races don't count.

The driver with the best past record at Homestead - Biffle.

Of course, he'd have to make it thru the three prior rounds,
which isn't likely. But if he did, we could have a real
upset of a champion.

John

[bob.p...@gmail.com]

On Friday, September 5, 2014 10:00:03 AM UTC-4, John McCoy wrote:

>
> Well, here's an interesting thought. The way the Chase is
> setup, now, the champion is the guy who finishes best at
> Homestead; the prior races don't count.
>
>
> The driver with the best past record at Homestead - Biffle.
>
>
> Of course, he'd have to make it thru the three prior rounds,
> which isn't likely. But if he did, we could have a real
> upset of a champion.

Agree it would be an incredible long shot for Biffle to get thru to the final
round. The way the Roush cars have been running just about all year long,
I don't see Biffle or Edwards making the "elite eight".

Looks like we were right about no changes as a result of Richmond, so now it
begins.

I guess the first question is who are the first four out. You'd have to put
Allmendinger and Almirola on that list for sure. Mediocre teams with no more
freaky wins coming to them. I'd say Biffle will wipe out in the first cut too.
My heart would like to see Kurt Busch join the first washout class, but my
head says it will be Kahne.

As for who makes it all the way thru to Homestead. Gordon, Earnhardt, Logano
and Keselowski with Logano taking it all.

[John McCoy]

bob.p...@gmail.com wrote in
news:e454e4e9-7cf9-44a6...@googlegroups.com:

> Looks like we were right about no changes as a result of Richmond, so
> now it begins.
>
> I guess the first question is who are the first four out. You'd have
> to put Allmendinger and Almirola on that list for sure. Mediocre
> teams with no more freaky wins coming to them. I'd say Biffle will
> wipe out in the first cut too. My heart would like to see Kurt Busch
> join the first washout class, but my head says it will be Kahne.

Well, I'll agree with you on Allmendinger and Almirola
(altho Allmendinger's actually had some nice runs recently
and might squeak thru if some of the bigger names have a
DNF in the first 3 races). And Kahne rapidly regressed to
his normal form for this season, so I think he'll be out too.

Fourth one out is a tossup between Busch, Biffle, and
Newman.

> As for who makes it all the way thru to Homestead. Gordon, Earnhardt,
> Logano and Keselowski with Logano taking it all.

Keselowski looks like a lock to move on. And obviously I
think Harvick will, too. I'll take Earnhardt and Johnson
as the last two (even tho I'd really like to see Johnson
out of contention; and his sudden health issue maybe
doesn't bode well for the Chase).

John