Chase, take 4

[John McCoy]

In the first stage, up to 3 race winners advance, and at
least nine drivers advance on points. So this stage is
mostly points racing, the goal being to not screw up.

In for sure:

Keselowski (1 win)

In good shape:

Gordon, Logano, Harvick, Earnhardt, Hamlin, Busch, Johnson, Busch

In danger:

Kenseth (-25 points), Kahne (-25), Edwards (-29), Newman (-30),
Allmendinger (-34), Biffle (-38)

Probably out:

Almirola (-52 points)

A shame for Almirola, who was running in 6th with less than
40 laps left in the race when his engine expired.

John

[John McCoy]

John McCoy <igo...@ix.netcom.com> wrote in
news:XnsA3A95F1D2DE...@78.46.70.116:

In the first stage, up to 3 race winners advance, and at
least nine drivers advance on points. So this stage is
mostly points racing, the goal being to not screw up.

In for sure:

Keselowski (1 win)

Logano (1)

In good shape:

Harvick, Johnson, Earnhardt, Ky Busch, Gordon

In danger:

Edwards (-40 points), Kenseth (-40), Allmendinger (-41),
Kahne (-42), Newman (-42), Hamlin (-48), Biffle (-48),
Ku Busch (-50), Almirola (-52)

Probably out:

no-one.

A great run for Almirola, who finished 6th. He has put himself
in a position where he realistically could end up in the top 12
with another good run at Dover.

John

[bob.p...@gmail.com]

On Sunday, September 21, 2014 8:30:02 PM UTC-4, John McCoy wrote:

>
> A great run for Almirola, who finished 6th. He has put himself
> in a position where he realistically could end up in the top 12
> with another good run at Dover.
>

Well, I've been a fan of the 43 car for a long time, so I hope he makes it.

Dover's almost on par with the plate tracks as a place where it's really easy
to get caught up in someone else's mess, so if he can stay out of trouble,
there's a good possibility the guys he needs to pass will have a bad day.

[bob.p...@gmail.com]

OK, picking the first four out went largely according to plan. Now it gets a
little tougher to pick the next four out, but not terribly so.

Newman, Edwards, Hamlin and Kahne are the bottom four at the moment (based on
their finishing positions in the first round). I'm picking Newman, Edwards and
Kahne to miss the next cut, but I think Hamlin survives and his teammate Kyle
Busch heads to the sidelines after Talladega.

Now I'll admit that part of that is wishful thinking on my part given that I
can't stand the little twerp, but part is recognizing that Kansas has been
nothing short of disastrous for KB. If it bites him again, he's going to be in
a pretty deep hole with precious little time to get out.

Toyotas have won just two of the 29 races so far, so I don't see any Toyota
drivers advancing via the win. So, one bad race and you're pretty much cooked.

[John McCoy]

bob.p...@gmail.com wrote in
news:ed8c9c93-bbb9-4467...@googlegroups.com:

> OK, picking the first four out went largely according to plan. Now it
> gets a little tougher to pick the next four out, but not terribly so.
>
> Newman, Edwards, Hamlin and Kahne are the bottom four at the moment
> (based on their finishing positions in the first round). I'm picking
> Newman, Edwards and Kahne to miss the next cut, but I think Hamlin
> survives and his teammate Kyle Busch heads to the sidelines after
> Talladega.

Well, I think you were closer on the first round than I
was. For the next round we have Talladega, which could
produce almost anything as far as weird results.

So I'll go with Kahne, Newman, and Hamlin dropping out.
All three of them have been marginal all year, and this is
probably the round where marginal no longer cuts it.
Fourth out I think will be Kenseth (sadly, I like Kenseth).
Altho I'd like to see Johnson drop out, so we don't have
to worry about him winning again.

John