The fall of San Francisco

ScottW

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Jun 15, 2021, 11:18:40 AM6/15/21

to

https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1404619498347536389

San Francisco DA doesn’t prosecute theft. This is the result.

All business owners will close their stores and leave the city. It’s inevitable.

(watch embedded video)

and in reply.
It’s not just businesses who are leaving.

San Francisco residents are leaving. Net exits from San Francisco in the last 9 months of 2020 increased 649% compared with the same period in 2019, from 5,200 net exits to 38,800.

38,800 in a year? That's almost the size of the town I grew up in...

ScottW

MiNe109

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Jun 15, 2021, 2:44:29 PM6/15/21

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On 6/15/21 10:18 AM, ScottW wrote:
> San Francisco residents are leaving. Net exits from San Francisco in
> the last 9 months of 2020 increased 649% compared with the same
> period in 2019, from 5,200 net exits to 38,800.
>
> 38,800 in a year? That's almost the size of the town I grew up
> in...

They're mostly moving to nearby counties and the foothills. There are
already stories about the culture clash in Lake Tahoe.

I've lived in a couple of one high school towns. Cities are better for
most of the things I like.

ScottW

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Jun 16, 2021, 11:31:44 AM6/16/21

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On Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:44:29 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
> On 6/15/21 10:18 AM, ScottW wrote:
> > San Francisco residents are leaving. Net exits from San Francisco in
> > the last 9 months of 2020 increased 649% compared with the same
> > period in 2019, from 5,200 net exits to 38,800.
> >
> > 38,800 in a year? That's almost the size of the town I grew up
> > in...
> They're mostly moving to nearby counties and the foothills. There are
> already stories about the culture clash in Lake Tahoe.

Tahoe is hardly within commuting and is out of state....
and they don't like shitting in the lake.

>
> I've lived in a couple of one high school towns.

We had two....and they both offered advanced math.

ScottW

MiNe109

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Jun 16, 2021, 1:52:23 PM6/16/21

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On 6/16/21 10:31 AM, ScottW wrote:
> On Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:44:29 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
>> On 6/15/21 10:18 AM, ScottW wrote:
>>> San Francisco residents are leaving. Net exits from San Francisco in
>>> the last 9 months of 2020 increased 649% compared with the same
>>> period in 2019, from 5,200 net exits to 38,800.
>>>
>>> 38,800 in a year? That's almost the size of the town I grew up
>>> in...
>> They're mostly moving to nearby counties and the foothills. There are
>> already stories about the culture clash in Lake Tahoe.
>
> Tahoe is hardly within commuting and is out of state....

Wow. Not a record level but of contentiousness, but what difference does
out of state make? And who said anything about commuting? You'll find
Lake Tahoe has a California side that was inhabited last time I visited.

> and they don't like shitting in the lake.

>> I've lived in a couple of one high school towns.
>
> We had two....and they both offered advanced math.

Still do, I bet.

ScottW

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Jun 16, 2021, 2:09:11 PM6/16/21

to

On Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 10:52:23 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
> On 6/16/21 10:31 AM, ScottW wrote:
> > On Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:44:29 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
> >> On 6/15/21 10:18 AM, ScottW wrote:
> >>> San Francisco residents are leaving. Net exits from San Francisco in
> >>> the last 9 months of 2020 increased 649% compared with the same
> >>> period in 2019, from 5,200 net exits to 38,800.
> >>>
> >>> 38,800 in a year? That's almost the size of the town I grew up
> >>> in...
> >> They're mostly moving to nearby counties and the foothills. There are
> >> already stories about the culture clash in Lake Tahoe.
> >
> > Tahoe is hardly within commuting and is out of state....
> Wow. Not a record level but of contentiousness, but what difference does
> out of state make?

Tax revenue.

ScottW

MiNe109

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Jun 16, 2021, 2:22:40 PM6/16/21

to

The subject is "the fall of San Francisco" not "a possible loss of state
tax revenue."

SF has plenty of problems, some of which can be attributed to the
massive economic inequality or to poor transit and low density.

ScottW

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Jun 16, 2021, 6:57:14 PM6/16/21

to

On Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 11:22:40 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
> On 6/16/21 1:09 PM, ScottW wrote:
> > On Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 10:52:23 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
> >> On 6/16/21 10:31 AM, ScottW wrote:
> >>> On Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:44:29 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
> >>>> On 6/15/21 10:18 AM, ScottW wrote:
> >>>>> San Francisco residents are leaving. Net exits from San Francisco in
> >>>>> the last 9 months of 2020 increased 649% compared with the same
> >>>>> period in 2019, from 5,200 net exits to 38,800.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> 38,800 in a year? That's almost the size of the town I grew up
> >>>>> in...
> >>>> They're mostly moving to nearby counties and the foothills. There are
> >>>> already stories about the culture clash in Lake Tahoe.
> >>>
> >>> Tahoe is hardly within commuting and is out of state....
> >> Wow. Not a record level but of contentiousness, but what difference does
> >> out of state make?
> >
> > Tax revenue.
> The subject is "the fall of San Francisco" not "a possible loss of state
> tax revenue."

What do you think causes the collapse of a community?

>
> SF has plenty of problems, some of which can be attributed to the
> massive economic inequality or to poor transit and low density.

Yeah....sure...that's why the rich people leave.

I saw a report from Illinois showing the average income of a person who left the state was 180K.
The average income of a person moving in was 100K. They're bleeding revenue due to their taxes.

ScottW

MiNe109

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Jun 17, 2021, 8:10:51 AM6/17/21

to

On 6/16/21 5:57 PM, ScottW wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 11:22:40 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
>> On 6/16/21 1:09 PM, ScottW wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 10:52:23 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
>>>> On 6/16/21 10:31 AM, ScottW wrote:
>>>>> On Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 11:44:29 AM UTC-7, MINe109
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> On 6/15/21 10:18 AM, ScottW wrote:
>>>>>>> San Francisco residents are leaving. Net exits from San
>>>>>>> Francisco in the last 9 months of 2020 increased 649%
>>>>>>> compared with the same period in 2019, from 5,200 net
>>>>>>> exits to 38,800.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 38,800 in a year? That's almost the size of the town I
>>>>>>> grew up in...
>>>>>> They're mostly moving to nearby counties and the foothills.
>>>>>> There are already stories about the culture clash in Lake
>>>>>> Tahoe.
>>>>>
>>>>> Tahoe is hardly within commuting and is out of state....
>>>> Wow. Not a record level but of contentiousness, but what
>>>> difference does out of state make?
>>>
>>> Tax revenue.
>> The subject is "the fall of San Francisco" not "a possible loss of
>> state tax revenue."
>
> What do you think causes the collapse of a community?

Not rich people "flock[ing] to nearby areas." SF has insufficient
housing as is. Build some and that trend will reverse.

>> SF has plenty of problems, some of which can be attributed to the
>> massive economic inequality or to poor transit and low density.
>
> Yeah....sure...that's why the rich people leave.

The petty crime and homelessness is in the inequality category.

> I saw a report from Illinois showing the average income of a person
> who left the state was 180K. The average income of a person moving in
> was 100K. They're bleeding revenue due to their taxes.

Meanwhile, in the original state you brought up, the originators of the
report you cited described that topic this way in a press release:

“Some folks seem to be worried about the tax implications of wealthy
individuals leaving the state, but we don’t yet see any dramatic
evidence that rich households are fleeing California en masse,” comments
Evan White, Executive Director of the California Policy Lab at UC
Berkeley. “Unfortunately, because the state relies heavily on income
taxes on the uber-wealthy, the departure of even small numbers of
wealthy people could negatively impact revenues if they aren’t replaced
with new entrants.”

ScottW

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Jun 17, 2021, 12:34:22 PM6/17/21

to

Yeah, the booming stock market has covered for them so far.
But that won't last forever.

While most of the country saw booming real estate values over the last year
SF bucked the trend.
Home values there have declined -2.8% over the last twelve months.

ScottW

MiNe109

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Jun 17, 2021, 2:17:33 PM6/17/21

to

On 6/17/21 11:34 AM, ScottW wrote:
> On Thursday, June 17, 2021 at 5:10:51 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:
>> On 6/16/21 5:57 PM, ScottW wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 11:22:40 AM UTC-7, MINe109 wrote:

>>>> The subject is "the fall of San Francisco" not "a possible loss of
>>>> state tax revenue."

> Yeah, the booming stock market has covered for them so far.
> But that won't last forever.

That's a state problem, not a San Francisco problem.

> While most of the country saw booming real estate values over the last year
> SF bucked the trend.

> Home values there have declined -2.8% over the last twelve months.

That's too bad. It could mean lower property taxes. I see it's not
restricted to SF and they're calling it the "doughnut effect." Prices
are up in all other Bay Area cities.