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Joe has managed to revise the interest in revisions
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ScottW
Feb 8, 2024, 1:45:47 PMFeb 8
to
Mention the government’s annual revisions to seasonal adjustment factors for monthly inflation data and you’re likely to make eyes glaze over, even among hardcore economics nerds. Not this year.
Economists on Wall Street and in Washington will be tuning in for this year’s update, due Friday morning, because of what happened a year ago: The revisions to the consumer price index — typically small and therefore ignored — were large enough to cast doubt on overall inflation progress.
Last year’s tweaks hit with a bang.
Initial readings had shown consumer prices excluding food and energy — an important gauge of inflation’s underlying trend, closely watched by the Fed — had risen by just 3.1% on an annualized basis in the final three months of 2022, down from 8% in the same period of 2021.
That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the 3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.
Fast forward a year and Friday’s release is receiving an unusual amount of attention, even as some economists are trying to tamp down the drama.
Bidenomics, nothing but bad drama.
ScottW
Economists on Wall Street and in Washington will be tuning in for this year’s update, due Friday morning, because of what happened a year ago: The revisions to the consumer price index — typically small and therefore ignored — were large enough to cast doubt on overall inflation progress.
Last year’s tweaks hit with a bang.
Initial readings had shown consumer prices excluding food and energy — an important gauge of inflation’s underlying trend, closely watched by the Fed — had risen by just 3.1% on an annualized basis in the final three months of 2022, down from 8% in the same period of 2021.
That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the 3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.
Fast forward a year and Friday’s release is receiving an unusual amount of attention, even as some economists are trying to tamp down the drama.
Bidenomics, nothing but bad drama.
ScottW
mINE109
Feb 8, 2024, 2:23:49 PMFeb 8
to
On 2/8/24 12:45 PM, ScottW wrote:
> Mention the government’s annual revisions to seasonal adjustment
> factors for monthly inflation data and you’re likely to make eyes
> glaze over, even among hardcore economics nerds. Not this year.
>
> Economists on Wall Street and in Washington will be tuning in for
> this year’s update, due Friday morning, because of what happened a
> year ago: The revisions to the consumer price index — typically small
> and therefore ignored — were large enough to cast doubt on overall
> inflation progress. Last year’s tweaks hit with a bang.
>
> Initial readings had shown consumer prices excluding food and energy
> — an important gauge of inflation’s underlying trend, closely watched
> by the Fed — had risen by just 3.1% on an annualized basis in the
> final three months of 2022, down from 8% in the same period of 2021.
>
> That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the
> 3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days
> later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly
> the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.
No reason to think that will happen this year.
> Mention the government’s annual revisions to seasonal adjustment
> factors for monthly inflation data and you’re likely to make eyes
> glaze over, even among hardcore economics nerds. Not this year.
>
> Economists on Wall Street and in Washington will be tuning in for
> this year’s update, due Friday morning, because of what happened a
> year ago: The revisions to the consumer price index — typically small
> and therefore ignored — were large enough to cast doubt on overall
> inflation progress. Last year’s tweaks hit with a bang.
>
> Initial readings had shown consumer prices excluding food and energy
> — an important gauge of inflation’s underlying trend, closely watched
> by the Fed — had risen by just 3.1% on an annualized basis in the
> final three months of 2022, down from 8% in the same period of 2021.
>
> That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the
> 3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days
> later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly
> the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.
> Fast forward a year and Friday’s release is receiving an unusual
> amount of attention, even as some economists are trying to tamp down
> the drama.
>
> Bidenomics, nothing but bad drama.
surely and a continuing refusal to accept good economic news with a
Democrat in the White House.
It's a miracle we've come out of the pandemic with such a good economy.
Fascist Flea
Feb 8, 2024, 2:47:25 PMFeb 8
to
The woof starts here.
stench of an internet troll.
Come closer so I can zap you with my stun gun.
Bad, bad doggie.
>
> you’re likely to make eyes glaze over, even among hardcore economics nerds. Not this year.
>
Unattributed citation, a hallmark of the modern-day carpetbagger. IOW, the telltale
> you’re likely to make eyes glaze over, even among hardcore economics nerds. Not this year.
>
stench of an internet troll.
Come closer so I can zap you with my stun gun.
Bad, bad doggie.
mINE109
Feb 9, 2024, 10:38:59 AMFeb 9
to
On 2/8/24 1:23 PM, mINE109 wrote:
> On 2/8/24 12:45 PM, ScottW wrote:
>> That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the
>> 3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days
>> later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly
>> the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.
>
> No reason to think that will happen this year.
>
>> Fast forward a year and Friday’s release is receiving an unusual
>> amount of attention, even as some economists are trying to tamp down
>> the drama.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-02-09-2024/card/disinflation-trend-remains-intact-after-latest-revisions-8At6ta8wo4XcMiaiITMK
> On 2/8/24 12:45 PM, ScottW wrote:
>> That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the
>> 3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days
>> later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly
>> the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.
>
> No reason to think that will happen this year.
>
>> Fast forward a year and Friday’s release is receiving an unusual
>> amount of attention, even as some economists are trying to tamp down
>> the drama.
"The overall picture of an economy that saw a sustained cooling in price
pressures over the second half of 2023 remains intact.
Revisions to the consumer price index released by the Labor Department
Friday showed that so-called core prices—which exclude volatile food and
energy items— rose 3.3% in December over the previous three months at an
annualized rate. That was was unchanged from earlier figures.
The six-month annualized core inflation rate was 3.2% in December, also
unchanged."
That's some awkward wording there, WSJ. Maybe that's how they always do
it but still.
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