Why TiVo is doomed
David
TiVo Will Die
Three Trends Spell Doom for the Popular Personal Video Recorder
By Jim Louderback
March 19— It's always hard to write an obituary, especially when the
subject is still alive. It's especially hard for me, because I love
the little guy like a brother. But, alas, TiVo will die.
I was one of the first reviewers to get my hands on an early TiVo box.
I compared TiVo with ReplayTV, and although I really wanted to like
ReplayTV, TiVo won my heart over.
It wasn't the cutesy mascot, although that helped. Rather, it was the
drop-dead simplicity and ease of use that even the first version
evinced. And to top everything off, TiVo came with the world's best
remote control ever, even more astounding for such a fiendishly
complex device. Shaped like a dog bone, it was simple to use, easy to
understand, and a pleasure to hold.
The Wall Street Journal's arbiter of tech — Walt Mossberg — still
thinks ReplayTV was better, and we've argued over the brilliance of
the remote. But the acid test, for me, was when I plopped TiVo down in
front of my computer-averse wife. She took to it like a duck to water.
So much, in fact, that I soon purchased another one just so I could
watch what I wanted to see.
But TiVo today has a problem — and it's not what you think. Most folks
point to TiVo's inability to convince consumers just how cool the
product is and why they need one.
Yes, it's hard to describe why a personal video recorder (PVR) is
better than a VCR — until you use one. Give a TiVo to your friends for
a month and you'll have to pry the remote out of their cold, dead
hands. ReplayTV faces the same challenge, but that's not where the
real threat lies.
Instead, a convergence of three separate trends is conspiring to kill
off TiVo.
The Three Horsemen
Moore's Law. The first one, ironically, derives from the same
technology that enabled TiVo to live in the first place: Moore's Law.
As chips got powerful enough and hard drives cheap enough, the PVR was
inevitable. But now the raw materials are cheap enough to put hard
drive–based video recording into just about anything.
It's not just cheap components. Television delivery has changed, too.
The original TiVo was designed to suck in an analog TV signal, via
either antenna or cable. It also included analog S-Video and composite
ports for set-top boxes, which aside from DirecTV and Dish Network
were mostly analog, too.
Fast-forward to today. Nearly half of what the industry calls
multichannel homes (those with cable or satellite) receive their TV in
digital form.
And that's bad news for standalone PVRs like TiVo and ReplayTV.
Satellite providers Comcast, DirecTV, and Dish — and companies that
offer digital cable service — have spent oodles of cash buying up the
best available MPEG compressors to convert analog feeds from broadcast
networks, ESPN, HBO, and the other cable networks into compressed
digital bits for home delivery.
It's a Generational Thing. Even with digital cable or satellite
services, the broadcast signals spend little time in digital form.
Within the home, a set-top box first converts everything to analog
(the box doesn't know whether you have HDTV). Then, if you're using a
standard TiVo, that data is reconverted into digital form (MPEG) for
time shifting and storage. But the data undergoes one more conversion
back to analog, so it can play on a traditional television set.
Just as in the old audiocassette days — where if you copied your best
friend's mix tape, a bit more hiss came along with each generation
farther removed from the source — the two-step analog-to-digital
conversion causes noticeable and annoying artifacts. And as TVs get
bigger and cable companies squeeze more channels into the same space,
those blocky artifacts will become worse and worse.
So what's the solution? Stay digital all the way. TiVo realized this
early on and swung a deal with DirecTV to build a combination PVR and
DirecTV tuner. With the DirecTiVo, the fat digital bits from the
satellite go right onto the hard drive and aren't converted to analog
until they squirt into your TV.
Good first step. But since DirecTV had TiVo, archrival Dish Network
decided to develop its own PVR/receiver combo. The Dish Player still
lacks some of the basic show-finding features TiVo has had for years,
including wish lists and season passes. It's also buggy, as well-known
usability expert Bruce Tognazzini details in his blog
(www.asktog.com). But because the picture is better than an analog
TiVo's, Dish customers have flocked to the Dish Player in droves. For
TiVo, this has caused enough concern that the company has filed a
lawsuit accusing Dish Network of intellectual property (IP)
violations.
And now the guys who make digital cable set-top boxes have gotten into
the game. Motorola and Scientific Atlanta both make combo
receiver/recorders for cable. And they're cheap, too: Viewers can't
buy them but can typically rent a box for just $6 a month. That's half
the cost of TiVo's monthly service charge after you've bought a TiVo
unit for $300 or so.
I've played with most of the cable combos, and while they lack TiVo's
elegance and usability, they work well enough, and the picture quality
is noticeably better than with standalone recorders. Let's look at the
next TiVo killer.
HDTV. The next fatal problem for TiVo is high-definition TV signals.
2004 will be the year America embraces HDTV. The Super Bowl looked
tremendous in HD, movies are amazing, and in May, when ESPN begins
broadcasting SportsCenter in HD, the contest will be over.
With the world moving to HD, here comes TiVo — a year late — with its
own HD PVR. Scheduled to ship in March, the DirecTV combination HD
receiver and PVR will cost a staggering $1,000. Cable, again, is about
to trump TiVo. Motorola and Scientific Atlanta are readying their own
HD set-top boxes, which will again be free to use and will cost about
$10 a month to rent.
A legitimate TiVo alternative, the Digeo Moxi, offers everything TiVo
does and comes with the first decent PVR remote since TiVo. Expected
monthly rental: around $10. You could enjoy a Moxi for eight years and
still not burn through the out-of-box price for the upcoming HD TiVo.
Even so, TiVo could happily go on losing money for the next ten years,
based on its lucrative agreement with DirecTV. But alas, you have to
paint Rupert Murdoch as public enemy number three in this tragic tale.
Murdoch's DirecTV. The problem is that Murdoch is a rapacious
cost-cutter, squeezing margins and hunting for profits at every turn.
He has already moved to consolidate the fractured DirecTV set-top
market — where more than 10 consumer electronics vendors build their
own branded boxes — into one (presumably cheaper) look and feel. The
next step will be for Murdoch to oust TiVo in favor of a lower-cost
and less useful but cheaper PVR. And when that happens, you can kiss
poor TiVo goodbye.
Of course, Murdoch could purchase TiVo lock, stock, and barrel —
though it's doubtful. But there's one sliver of hope for the
beleaguered PVR vendor, and that's software licensing. Unfortunately,
the low price that TiVo's software would command won't translate into
any sort of positive return on equity for shareholders. So that kind
of licensing is probably not going to happen, either.
The Missed Signs of Doom
Of course, I should have seen this coming. Over the years I've
observed that the more arrogant and less responsive a company gets,
the more likely it's about to fail. Oddly, when the going gets tough,
most companies don't do a gut check and rededicate themselves to
service. Instead, they circle the wagons and go into a preventive
defense — and search for someone to sue.
In the early years of TiVo, I'd get instant service. TiVo even gave me
the name of a special ambassador — a strategy meant to ensure that the
company got a fair hearing in the press, on the Web, and in other
public forums. Today my inquiries go unanswered — or even worse, I
never receive a promised response. Hold times on the help lines are
interminable: It took me over half an hour last week to determine why
the company had charged me $14. And I'll wager that Dish Network is
not the first company or the last to be sued for IP rustling.
It's surely not the product designers' fault. They've built a great
new category and an incredibly useful and usable product. But a few
dumb decisions, coupled with intransigent corporate arrogance and
overweening lawyers, have doomed TiVo to death.
I'll surely miss the poor guy when he's gone.
Uniblab
news:405f101f...@news.individual.net...
> from abcnews.com
>
> TiVo Will Die
> Three Trends Spell Doom for the Popular Personal Video Recorder
> By Jim Louderback
>
bulb on the marquee, so I'd take this with a grain of salt.
-----= Posted via Newsfeeds.Com, Uncensored Usenet News =-----
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dari
Tivo has, you are a fool to squash it. These cable and satellite providers
would be smart to integrate Tivo into their set-top boxes and capitalize off
the brand name to drive subscriptions rather than try to create their own
shoddy knock-off. But then again, most cable operators are idiots so I won't
hold my breath for any brilliant marketing ideas. Which is why I have
DirecTivo and always will.
"David" <diml...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:405f101f...@news.individual.net...
> from abcnews.com
>
> TiVo Will Die
> Three Trends Spell Doom for the Popular Personal Video Recorder
> By Jim Louderback
>
> March 19- It's always hard to write an obituary, especially when the
> subject is still alive. It's especially hard for me, because I love
> the little guy like a brother. But, alas, TiVo will die.
>
> I was one of the first reviewers to get my hands on an early TiVo box.
> I compared TiVo with ReplayTV, and although I really wanted to like
> ReplayTV, TiVo won my heart over.
>
> It wasn't the cutesy mascot, although that helped. Rather, it was the
> drop-dead simplicity and ease of use that even the first version
> evinced. And to top everything off, TiVo came with the world's best
> remote control ever, even more astounding for such a fiendishly
> complex device. Shaped like a dog bone, it was simple to use, easy to
> understand, and a pleasure to hold.
>
> The Wall Street Journal's arbiter of tech - Walt Mossberg - still
> thinks ReplayTV was better, and we've argued over the brilliance of
> the remote. But the acid test, for me, was when I plopped TiVo down in
> front of my computer-averse wife. She took to it like a duck to water.
> So much, in fact, that I soon purchased another one just so I could
> watch what I wanted to see.
>
> But TiVo today has a problem - and it's not what you think. Most folks
> point to TiVo's inability to convince consumers just how cool the
> product is and why they need one.
>
> Yes, it's hard to describe why a personal video recorder (PVR) is
> better than a VCR - until you use one. Give a TiVo to your friends for
> a month and you'll have to pry the remote out of their cold, dead
> hands. ReplayTV faces the same challenge, but that's not where the
> real threat lies.
>
> Instead, a convergence of three separate trends is conspiring to kill
> off TiVo.
>
> The Three Horsemen
>
> Moore's Law. The first one, ironically, derives from the same
> technology that enabled TiVo to live in the first place: Moore's Law.
> As chips got powerful enough and hard drives cheap enough, the PVR was
> inevitable. But now the raw materials are cheap enough to put hard
> drive-based video recording into just about anything.
>
> It's not just cheap components. Television delivery has changed, too.
> The original TiVo was designed to suck in an analog TV signal, via
> either antenna or cable. It also included analog S-Video and composite
> ports for set-top boxes, which aside from DirecTV and Dish Network
> were mostly analog, too.
>
> Fast-forward to today. Nearly half of what the industry calls
> multichannel homes (those with cable or satellite) receive their TV in
> digital form.
>
> And that's bad news for standalone PVRs like TiVo and ReplayTV.
> Satellite providers Comcast, DirecTV, and Dish - and companies that
> offer digital cable service - have spent oodles of cash buying up the
> best available MPEG compressors to convert analog feeds from broadcast
> networks, ESPN, HBO, and the other cable networks into compressed
> digital bits for home delivery.
>
> It's a Generational Thing. Even with digital cable or satellite
> services, the broadcast signals spend little time in digital form.
> Within the home, a set-top box first converts everything to analog
> (the box doesn't know whether you have HDTV). Then, if you're using a
> standard TiVo, that data is reconverted into digital form (MPEG) for
> time shifting and storage. But the data undergoes one more conversion
> back to analog, so it can play on a traditional television set.
>
> Just as in the old audiocassette days - where if you copied your best
> friend's mix tape, a bit more hiss came along with each generation
> farther removed from the source - the two-step analog-to-digital
> With the world moving to HD, here comes TiVo - a year late - with its
> own HD PVR. Scheduled to ship in March, the DirecTV combination HD
> receiver and PVR will cost a staggering $1,000. Cable, again, is about
> to trump TiVo. Motorola and Scientific Atlanta are readying their own
> HD set-top boxes, which will again be free to use and will cost about
> $10 a month to rent.
>
> A legitimate TiVo alternative, the Digeo Moxi, offers everything TiVo
> does and comes with the first decent PVR remote since TiVo. Expected
> monthly rental: around $10. You could enjoy a Moxi for eight years and
> still not burn through the out-of-box price for the upcoming HD TiVo.
>
> Even so, TiVo could happily go on losing money for the next ten years,
> based on its lucrative agreement with DirecTV. But alas, you have to
> paint Rupert Murdoch as public enemy number three in this tragic tale.
>
> Murdoch's DirecTV. The problem is that Murdoch is a rapacious
> cost-cutter, squeezing margins and hunting for profits at every turn.
> He has already moved to consolidate the fractured DirecTV set-top
> market - where more than 10 consumer electronics vendors build their
> own branded boxes - into one (presumably cheaper) look and feel. The
> next step will be for Murdoch to oust TiVo in favor of a lower-cost
> and less useful but cheaper PVR. And when that happens, you can kiss
> poor TiVo goodbye.
>
> Of course, Murdoch could purchase TiVo lock, stock, and barrel -
> though it's doubtful. But there's one sliver of hope for the
> beleaguered PVR vendor, and that's software licensing. Unfortunately,
> the low price that TiVo's software would command won't translate into
> any sort of positive return on equity for shareholders. So that kind
> of licensing is probably not going to happen, either.
>
> The Missed Signs of Doom
>
> Of course, I should have seen this coming. Over the years I've
> observed that the more arrogant and less responsive a company gets,
> the more likely it's about to fail. Oddly, when the going gets tough,
> most companies don't do a gut check and rededicate themselves to
> service. Instead, they circle the wagons and go into a preventive
> defense - and search for someone to sue.
>
> In the early years of TiVo, I'd get instant service. TiVo even gave me
> the name of a special ambassador - a strategy meant to ensure that the
> company got a fair hearing in the press, on the Web, and in other
> public forums. Today my inquiries go unanswered - or even worse, I
Aaron Baugher
> from abcnews.com
>
> TiVo Will Die
> Three Trends Spell Doom for the Popular Personal Video Recorder
> By Jim Louderback
> Fast-forward to today. Nearly half of what the industry calls
> multichannel homes (those with cable or satellite) receive their TV
> in digital form.
He destroys his own argument right here, but doesn't even realize it
because everyone he knows fits into his "nearly half." If "nearly
half" have cable or satellite, that means *more than half* don't. As
long as Radio Shack still sells rooftop antennas, there will be a
market for standalone PVRs.
--
Aaron
abau...@esc.pike.il.us
Donna B
<861xnka...@cail.baugher.pike.il.us>, Aaron Baugher
<abau...@esc.pike.il.us> wrote:
He's saying that nearly half of 'however many homes have cable or
satellite', not that nearly half of us have cable or satellite. The
number of US homes that do not have either cable or satellite is so
small that Nielsen et al consider it statistically insignificant. I've
also heard 98% have|2% don't have. Years ago, 10 years ago or more, I
believe the number was at 80% have|20 % don't.
--
Donna B^>
"It's clear to me now that I have been moving towards you & you
towards me for a long time. Though neither of us was aware of the
other before we met, there was a kind of mindless certainty humming
blithely along beneath our ignorance that ensured we would come
together." - Robert Waller
Aaron Baugher
> He's saying that nearly half of 'however many homes have cable or
> satellite', not that nearly half of us have cable or satellite. The
> number of US homes that do not have either cable or satellite is so
> small that Nielsen et al consider it statistically
> insignificant. I've also heard 98% have|2% don't have. Years ago, 10
> years ago or more, I believe the number was at 80% have|20 % don't.
Cripes. You'd think I slept through Reading Comprehension 101. Never
mind. I didn't realize the number had gotten so low.
--
Aaron
abau...@esc.pike.il.us
Brian Thorn
>Moore's Law. The first one, ironically, derives from the same
>technology that enabled TiVo to live in the first place: Moore's Law.
>As chips got powerful enough and hard drives cheap enough, the PVR was
>inevitable. But now the raw materials are cheap enough to put hard
>drive–based video recording into just about anything.
$250 TiVo vs. $1500+ MediaCenter PC. Hmm, which should I buy...
>Fast-forward to today. Nearly half of what the industry calls
>multichannel homes (those with cable or satellite) receive their TV in
>digital form.
So? I have digital cable and a TiVo. They work just fine together. To
me (and I suspect a great many other subscribers), digital cable is
just a way to get more channels out of the cable. The picture is
better, but not remarkably so, and even that improvement is mostly
because there is less interference, which comes through fine to TiVo.
>HDTV. The next fatal problem for TiVo is high-definition TV signals.
>2004 will be the year America embraces HDTV. The Super Bowl looked
>tremendous in HD, movies are amazing, and in May, when ESPN begins
>broadcasting SportsCenter in HD, the contest will be over.
HDTV is much ado about nothing. Far too many consumers can not afford
to spend $1000+ for a 19" TV to replace their perfectly-good 29"
analog model. Until the price comes down, and wayyyyy down, HDTV will
only serve a niche market. The government is insane if they think
everyone is going to switch over to HDTV by 2006 (or whatever year it
has slipped to now) just because they say so. Sure, give me a nice fat
$500 tax credit for buying HD instead of Analog and I'll switch.
Failing that-- shoo, government regulator, go away!
>With the world moving to HD
The world is not moving to HD. "2004 is the year of HDTV" will be
changed to "2005 is the year of HDTV", and "2006 is the year of HDTV"
will follow that, with the home electronics industry scratching its
collective head trying to figure out why people aren't flocking to
their overpriced product.
HDTV is not VCR. HDTV is not CD. HDTV is not DVD.
HDTV is the Laserdisc of the 21st Century.
Brian
Alan Pollock
TIVO still has a long life ahead of it.
I only mention this one because I use it. The other ware for the E8000 DVR -
Passport - I can't speak for, but from Yahoo forum comments, while it's better
than SARA compared to Tivo it's not even close to being in the same universe
either. Nex
sdfasa
wrote:
lol..this is too funny..misinformation at its best
>>With the world moving to HD
>
>The world is not moving to HD. "2004 is the year of HDTV" will be
>changed to "2005 is the year of HDTV", and "2006 is the year of HDTV"
>will follow that, with the home electronics industry scratching its
>collective head trying to figure out why people aren't flocking to
>their overpriced product.
rofl..
there are more people buying hdtv's than you could ever imagine..2004
is the year of HDTV...sunday nfl ticket is offering half their games
in hi-def(there were none a year ago)..fox is moving to high def and
all their sports will also be high def..
hd-dvds will also be released...in wm9 format with players at decent
price points
2005 will be the year of HD-DVD..
>HDTV is not VCR. HDTV is not CD. HDTV is not DVD.
>
>HDTV is the Laserdisc of the 21st Century.
riiiiiiiiiight
>Brian
local cable companies are running out of HD DVRs to offer..that's how
much demand there is
Richard
-Rich
Nonymous
He's also not accounting for *why* half of people have digital. He's
assuming they have it because of the superior picture quality, etc.
But I have several friends and family members that merely have it because
they felt forced into it by their cable company:
1) the analog signal is so piss poor, that digital is the only way they get
a decent picture. They don't care that the picture is 'superior'; they only
want a 'satisfactory' picture, but are forced to pay for the superior
picture because the cable company won't do anything to fix their substandard
analog feed.
2) they felt forced into getting digital because the cable the company
doesn't provide certain channels as part of their analog 'basic cable'
package anymore. This, in fact, happened to my parents recently: they told
me they lost 6 or 7 channels on their analog feed and were informed by the
cable company that they are now only offered via the cable companies digital
service.
MC
"Nonymous" <no...@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:HMKdnZNlk51...@giganews.com...
popup banners, animated promos, logos, weather warnings, text crawls,
morning info clocks and bugs are more crisp now. :)
Jeff Darnell
> When you have a product that has the kind of brand equity and loyalty that
> Tivo has, you are a fool to squash it. These cable and satellite providers
> would be smart to integrate Tivo into their set-top boxes and capitalize off
> the brand name to drive subscriptions rather than try to create their own
> shoddy knock-off. But then again, most cable operators are idiots so I won't
> hold my breath for any brilliant marketing ideas. Which is why I have
> DirecTivo and always will.
TIVO has excellent brand equity for tech heads and the media business.
Most consumers couldn't care less what brand of DVR/PVR they have -
most don't even fully understand what it does. Show them a TIVO and
show them Echostar's knock off - they're just as happy with either.
TIVO would be wise to move its a** quicker and get integrated into
boxes instead of being so arrogant.
You do know that DirecTV manages the TIVO integrated boxes, right? I
wouldn't be surprised if the TIVO logo was eventually lost and DTV
added their own logo to it as they roll it out to everyone.
TIVO has had hands down the worst marketing campaigns of all time -
especially with such a great product. Its still to pricey, it has to
be integrated and people have to understand why its better before it
will get larger penetration.
In the end, TIVO has very little to leverage right now - they own
about 50% of the PVRs out there - but that's shrinking, not growing as
cable operators design their own. We all know Beta was a better
quality format - and the tech heads and media knew that as well (and
Beta had Brand Equity) - but who won - Beta or VHS???
Bradley
Jeff Darnell
> rofl..
>
> there are more people buying hdtv's than you could ever imagine..2004
> is the year of HDTV...sunday nfl ticket is offering half their games
> in hi-def(there were none a year ago)..fox is moving to high def and
> all their sports will also be high def..
>
> hd-dvds will also be released...in wm9 format with players at decent
> price points
>
> 2005 will be the year of HD-DVD..
>
> >HDTV is not VCR. HDTV is not CD. HDTV is not DVD.
> >
> >HDTV is the Laserdisc of the 21st Century.
>
> riiiiiiiiiight
No doubt HDTV will start to grow - but I wouldn't quite say 2004 is
the year of HDTV (nor is is the laserdisc- unlike laserdisc, HDTV will
be the future, but it won't be a quick build). HD programming is
expensive and networks have to take time to build libraries. I think
its more likely that 2005 or possibly 2006 is when we'll see more
substantial growth in HD sets in consumer homes - last I saw 20%
penetration by 2007 - that's not all that much, but respectable. Its
expensive and even with costs coming down - still expensive with
everything else people are paying for. It will take time to get new
sets in and old ones out. However, after you've had HD for awhile,
its like everything else - now what? The Gee Whiz factor goes away -
its still the same crappy television shows at the end of the day.
Bradley
Alan Pollock
> TIVO has excellent brand equity for tech heads and the media business.
> Most consumers couldn't care less what brand of DVR/PVR they have -
> most don't even fully understand what it does. Show them a TIVO and
> show them Echostar's knock off - they're just as happy with either.
> TIVO would be wise to move its a** quicker and get integrated into
> boxes instead of being so arrogant.
Perhaps, right now. But it doesn't take long for a whole mess of customers to
get real frustrated with a semi-functional, primitive dvr. They look around,
google and soon find out that they got bilked (word of net and word of mouth).
That the makers of their particular dvr box chose to save money instead of
hiring real programmers. Chose to ignore frequent user-requests and gripes. In
no time some, eventually many will look to alternatives. What's the most-often
mentioned mature, functional, smart dvr box? Tivo.
I think it's in large measure a question of timing. Can the SARA Explorer
8000's of this world make some headway in the useability department in what, a
year? If not, they may feel the pinch.
The rest of what you said could very well be true, I've used Tivo products for
4 years and while I feel no loyalty, I *do* want a useable box preferably
designed AFTER the late TWELFTH century. That means no freezes, logical
programming choices and a more intelligently-designed interface. You know,
like a Tivo. Nex
PS: Did I say *more* intelligently? Scratch the 'more' in the case of the SARA
E8000. Implies it's already got some intelligence. Wrong.
Alan Pollock
> With the proliferation of open source DVRs that hobbyists are coming out with
> (e.g. MythTV: http://www.mythtv.org/) which have no monthly fees, it won't be
> long before anyone can get TiVo functionality without the TiVo price.
Whatever gives the cable companies a huge kick in the pants is fine with me.
They're sleeping like fat, contented Cheshire cats. Wake up! Nex