Seanchan - KoD Spoilers
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Spoiler space ends
This post is in regard to the probable Seanchan attack on the White
Tower. In fact so many peices of information are in place, I beleive it
is possible deduce their entire plan of attack.
First also there is the prophecy: "A small white plinth stood centered
in that circle, supporting an oil-lamp made of clear glass. The flame
on that lamp burned bright and steady, without flickering. It was white
too. Suddenly a pair of birds flashed out of the mist, two ravens black
as night. Streaking across the spire-top, they struck the lamp and flew
on without so much as a pause. The lamp spun and wobbled, dancing
around atop the plinth, flinging off droplets of oil. Some of those
drops caught fire in midair and vanished. Others fell around the short
column, each supporting a tiny, flickering white flame. And the lamp
continued to wobble on the edge of falling." - CoT Egwenes Dream
The first we hear of Seanchan plans to attack the White Tower are in
Ch4 CoT: "A Tale of a Doll" In this chapter Furyk Karede is studying a
map of Tar Valon. There are two maps on the table only the Tar Valon
one had been unrolled. They are part of Lord Yulans plans (ch4 CoT).
That is Captain of the Air Lord Abaldar Yulan. In KoD: Prologue the
High Lady Suroth orders him to send 9 out of 10 Raken to Tarabon. In
the same section, Generel Galgan does not object to her movement of the
Raken so long as no To'Raken are moved. From the Guide we know that a
To'Raken is larger than a Raken and can carry around 10 men.
>From this, we know that at the time of the start of CoT, the Seanchan
already had detailed plans circulating amoung their highest generals
for an attack or raid on Tar Valon. The attack will be directed by a
Captain of the Air, therefore we know it will involve To'Roken moving
troops up to 200 km per day(Guide) until they reach Tar Valon.
The Seanchan therefore have it within their capability to send anywhere
from 100 to 500 Suldam/Damane combos to Tar Valon along with some Fists
of Heaven air soldiers by hop scotching through non-settled areas.
There could be significantly more troops if they make several trips to
a secret base camp up to 100 km away from Tar Valon.
>From the Guide we have a very detailed physical description of the
White Tower. Specifically that the White Tower has a flat top, and not
a spire for a roof. It is similar to a modern day roof garden on an
apartment building. In other words it is somehwere that To'Raken could
land.
In KoD Ch12: "A Manufactory" Perrin meets a Seanchan civil servant. She
has just been given a promotion for a great success in manufacturing
Forkroot.
In KoD During an Elaida or Tarna PoV we learn about the Tar Valon water
system. Specifically that water for the White Tower is drawn from a
central source.
When the Seanchan take Amador, some hours after the battle is finished
Morgase visits the High Lady Suroth. The High Lady had brought all her
furniture and Seanchan screens etc. with her by To'Raken. To'Raken not
only carry passengers but cargo as well.
In KoD Seanchan spies and agents are discovered by Rand in Tear.
Plainly for an attack on the White Tower scounts and agents could have
been inserted into the vacinity of Tar Valon well before the seige
started.
Finally, Jordan does little by accident and Elaida moving her rooms to
near the roof will probably become a plot point when the Seanchan
attack.
Therefore, while the scale of the attack or raid can vary significantly
the outlines are plain:
1. Seanchan agents will attempt to pour forkroot in the White Tower
water supply.
2. Seanchan To'Raken will carry Suldam and Damane as well as limited
numbers of soldiers to the roof of the White Tower. (And perhaps also
the city and even rebel Aes Sedai camp - all depends of scale of the
attack, and quality of intelligence)
3. Therefore they will catch a White Tower with only 200 Aes Sedai
present in the first place, with an unknown percentage asleep from
forkroot in their tea.
4. From prophecy we know the Seanchan will acheive limited success. We
know some Aes Sedai will die and others be collared but that the
Seanchan will not retain control of the White Tower.
5. As things stand, there is no reason for the Seanchan not to acheive
success except: The Asha'man bonded by Rebels, and Tower Reds,
especially if they form large circles will come as quite a surprise.
Speculations:
1. I keep returning to the prophecies associated with the Tower attack.
What possible reason could a Seanchan have for aiding Egwene? And how
could she be in more trouble than she is now for Gawyn to save her?
Even if the Seanchan capture her, they will make her Damane again, and
they never execute damane.
2. The Forsaken MUST know about the impending Seanchan attack on the
Tower through Semirhage and countless DarkFriends. At the Forsaken
Social Messana claimed everything going on surrounding the White Tower
as her plan as she came up with it. From Moridin's response the plan
has been adopted as Nae'blis policy to be run by him.
3. Unless Egeanin ends up at the White Tower, which seems exceedingly
unlikely with so little book time left, the Seanchan in Egwenes dream
must be one that comes with the attack.
4. The only thing I can think of to put Egwene in true danger, and
change a Seanchan's world view enough to team up with a marath'damane
is if the Forsaken /Black Ajah/Dark Asha'man take a hand in things.
5. If the Forsaken know the Seanchan attack is coming, the Black Ajah
will be warned in time to avoid being collared.
6. The Forsaken plan: The Seanchan attack takes out all the non-black
Aes Sedai, and the Black Ajah is left running the White Tower.
7. Egwene's 3rd time through the Accepted raising Ter'angreal has
elements of prophecy in it. Read the WoT FAQ Section 4.3
The circle of 13 Myrdraal 13 Black Ajah would certainly be a threat big
enough to force a Seanchan to start working with an marath'Damane as a
person and something the Seanchan and Gawyn may be needed to save her
and the White Tower from. The White Tower turned into a Black Ajah
producing factory for Aes Sedai and maybe even Damane. It would be a
worthy Forsaken plan for controlling the world unveiled in the last
book as part of the master plan for the dark side winning.
Thoughts?
JRS
armao...@aol.com
Spoiler space ends [/quote]
*SNIP!*
[quote] 2. The Forsaken MUST know about the impending Seanchan attack
on the
Tower through Semirhage and countless DarkFriends. At the Forsaken
Social Messana claimed everything going on surrounding the White Tower
as her plan as she came up with it. From Moridin's response the plan
has been adopted as Nae'blis policy to be run by him. [/quote]
Perhaps if the BA is made aware of the impending Seanchan attack, the
BA hunters will uncover it? Remember also, in the prologue Egwene
tells Katerine, Barasine, and Silviana about the Dream of the attack...
Katerine, who we know is BA snorts, which is indicative of nothing, but
its something to chew on as there are those in the Tower who were
warned.
Bill E. Brooks
Net.A...@gmail.com wrote:
>>From this, we know that at the time of the start of CoT, the Seanchan
> already had detailed plans circulating amoung their highest generals
> for an attack or raid on Tar Valon. The attack will be directed by a
> Captain of the Air, therefore we know it will involve To'Roken moving
> troops up to 200 km per day(Guide) until they reach Tar Valon.
>
> The Seanchan therefore have it within their capability to send anywhere
> from 100 to 500 Suldam/Damane combos to Tar Valon along with some Fists
> of Heaven air soldiers by hop scotching through non-settled areas.
> There could be significantly more troops if they make several trips to
> a secret base camp up to 100 km away from Tar Valon.
>
It is difficult for me to believe that the Seanchan would attack a major
city like Tar Valon without a significant army force, let alone one with
the White Tower and a standing army. I thought this sort of blitzkrieg
attack was for taking mostly wide open land. My assumption has always
been that they will get Traveling somehow. All they have to do is
capture one woman who can Travel and make her tell how. The Kin have
been Traveling around saving Kinswoman from the Seanchan, and would be
the perfect victims. Plus, how could they supply such a force so far
into enemy territory without Traveling?
Once an army takes Tar Valon, surrounding the White Tower, an aerial
attack could occur. Perhaps stopping this attack is the meaning of the
line "He snatches the moons from out of the sky."
> In KoD Ch12: "A Manufactory" Perrin meets a Seanchan civil servant. She
> has just been given a promotion for a great success in manufacturing
> Forkroot.
>
> In KoD During an Elaida or Tarna PoV we learn about the Tar Valon water
> system. Specifically that water for the White Tower is drawn from a
> central source.
>
I doubt the Seanchan could get away with poisoning the White Tower with
forkroot. For one thing, the sisters know all about forkroot's uses.
The Shaido didn't realize their water supply had this vulnerability.
> (And perhaps also
> the city and even rebel Aes Sedai camp - all depends of scale of the
> attack, and quality of intelligence)
>
Egwene's dream does not mention a divided tower. Therefore, I doubt the
Tower will be divided by the time the Seanchan attack.
> 1. I keep returning to the prophecies associated with the Tower attack.
> What possible reason could a Seanchan have for aiding Egwene?
There are lots of reasons why Egeanin might help Egwene. For one thing,
she isn't loyal to the Seanchan anymore.
> And how
> could she be in more trouble than she is now for Gawyn to save her?
The Black Ajah, the Seanchan, etc.
> 3. Unless Egeanin ends up at the White Tower, which seems exceedingly
> unlikely with so little book time left, the Seanchan in Egwenes dream
> must be one that comes with the attack.
>
Surely Egeanin is the one in the dream? She is no further from the
Tower than the rest of the Seanchan.
> 5. If the Forsaken know the Seanchan attack is coming, the Black Ajah
> will be warned in time to avoid being collared.
>
> 6. The Forsaken plan: The Seanchan attack takes out all the non-black
> Aes Sedai, and the Black Ajah is left running the White Tower.
>
Of course the Forsaken want this, but it is easier said than done. They
have to recover from Semirhage's capture and Suroth's removal, for
starters. There won't be much of a White Tower left if they remove all
the non-Black Ajah.
Will Tuon really attack the White Tower, despite Mat's effect on her?
Or will Suroth somehow be restored to her position? Or will Liandrin
replace her? Might Demandred replace Semirhage?
> The circle of 13 Myrdraal 13 Black Ajah would certainly be a threat big
> enough to force a Seanchan to start working with an marath'Damane as a
> person and something the Seanchan and Gawyn may be needed to save her
> and the White Tower from. The White Tower turned into a Black Ajah
> producing factory for Aes Sedai and maybe even Damane. It would be a
> worthy Forsaken plan for controlling the world unveiled in the last
> book as part of the master plan for the dark side winning.
>
The Forsaken want to turn every place into a Darkfriend factory. They
did a lot of this in the Age of Legends. But this takes a lot of time
because most people are not very cooporative.
-Bill E. Brooks
Eric Means
> city like Tar Valon without a significant army force, let alone one with
> the White Tower and a standing army. I thought this sort of blitzkrieg
> attack was for taking mostly wide open land.
I could see it. Soldiers aren't quartered in the Tower itself -- the
only men regularly inside the Tower grounds are Warders, and there
aren't that many of those (a few hundred at most?). A lightning strike
could seize a lot of marath'damane and retreat the same way without too
much worry -- especially as any counterattack has to come *up* the
Tower -- much more difficult.
I do think it would be a smash-and-grab attack, not a take-and-hold
attack.
> > In KoD Ch12: "A Manufactory" Perrin meets a Seanchan civil servant. She
> > has just been given a promotion for a great success in manufacturing
> > Forkroot.
> >
> > In KoD During an Elaida or Tarna PoV we learn about the Tar Valon water
> > system. Specifically that water for the White Tower is drawn from a
> > central source.
> >
> I doubt the Seanchan could get away with poisoning the White Tower with
> forkroot. For one thing, the sisters know all about forkroot's uses.
> The Shaido didn't realize their water supply had this vulnerability.
While TV's water supply is no doubt better secured than the Shaido's, I
doubt they give all that much thought to its protection. It's inside
the city, after all, not where the rebels can get to it. And while
someone else may have thought of forkroot being used in the manner
Perrin did, I find it highly unlikely that Elaida did -- and from
Tarna's POV we learn that unless Elaida thinks of it herself, it
doesn't happen in TV. And even if Elaida does think of it and orders
it, it will likely be disobeyed.
More importantly, though, we don't even know if the Seanchan have any
forkroot left -- Perrin may have taken a large chunk of their current
supply (likely not *all* of it since the Hand had been sending regular
shipments, but still -- 5 tons is a *lot* of tea). If he did, they may
not be able to effectively forkroot the Tower even if they get invited
to a Tar Valon Tea Party.
> Will Tuon really attack the White Tower, despite Mat's effect on her?
> Or will Suroth somehow be restored to her position? Or will Liandrin
> replace her? Might Demandred replace Semirhage?
One other thing to note is that "two ravens" is possibly the least
specific sigil RJ could have used. There are *three* different groups
or people who use Ravens as a sigil: The Shadow, the Seanchan, and Mat
himself. What if it's not the Seanchan Egwene dreamed of? Although
this is at least partially loony since ISTR Egwene "knew" what the
Dream meant, and as far as we know she (and Min) are always right when
they "know" what it means.
par...@gmail.com
2-300 Shaido Wise Ones. Among them potentially Someryn.
Tobias Wolf
>One addition to the Seanchan attack. They did just get an additional
>2-300 Shaido Wise Ones. Among them potentially Someryn.
I don't really expect the captured Wise Ones to resurface as weapons.
Think about it, Tarmon Gaidon is most likely only a couple of weeks
away, a few months at best.
It took some time even to break the captured Aes Sedai, but the Aiel
Wise Ones should be a lot tougher than that. I don't think the
Seanchan will be able to break many of them in time to be of any use
for soon upcoming battles.
Regards, Tobias
Allen Bryan
Any idiot will channel defensive weaves if dropped onto a battlefield
teeming with Shadowspawn.
Bill
been sent and that there is no way for Tuon to call it back,
even if she wanted?
By the way, I didn't see any big change in Tuon's attitude
about people who can channel. Why wouldn't she want to
capture the sisters in the White Tower?
Net.A...@gmail.com
In fact late into KoD Tuon was thinking that she would make her capitol
in Tar Valon. I doubt she meant while there were still a bunch of
marath'damane there. Not only is she not going to stop the attack on
Tar Valon, she may very well order it herself.
The only thing to suspect she will stop is the Prophecy Moiraine sites
in tDR which says the Dragon Reborn will "Bind the nine moons to
_serve_ him" emphasis added. Not just bind the nine moons to him, but
to serve him. Personally I'll be very interested to see how Rand pulls
this off, becuase just meeting her, even if he is Ta'veren is unlikely
to change her mind.
JRS
Bill E. Brooks
Net.A...@gmail.com wrote:
> Bill wrote:
>
>>Isn't it possible that the Tar Valon strike force has already
>>been sent and that there is no way for Tuon to call it back,
>>even if she wanted?
>>
I think this is unlikely because of Rodel Ituralde.
>>By the way, I didn't see any big change in Tuon's attitude
>>about people who can channel. Why wouldn't she want to
>>capture the sisters in the White Tower?
>
> In fact late into KoD Tuon was thinking that she would make her capitol
> in Tar Valon. I doubt she meant while there were still a bunch of
> marath'damane there. Not only is she not going to stop the attack on
> Tar Valon, she may very well order it herself.
>
The point is that the Mat situation should give her pause. It may not,
of course. Mat has made it plain he opposes taking damane. He freed
the Aes Sedai she recently collared again. He even declared that
"the Empire is my enemy". Does she really want to do something which
will so antagonize her husband? Well, maybe so. Does she think he
will not try to stop her? Perhaps she seeks to put one over on him.
In the end, she will not destroy the White Tower. Why? We know that
Egeanin (the Seanchan woman with a sword) will stop her, somehow.
She is with Mat. This makes it quite likely he will be involved.
So it seems she (or another) will attack the tower, but somehow,
Egeanin will talk her out of it before long. Thus, while it may be true
that her thinking hasn't changed much yet, it will. And it has begun to
change already. The dam is cracked, and soon it will crumble.
> The only thing to suspect she will stop is the Prophecy Moiraine sites
> in tDR which says the Dragon Reborn will "Bind the nine moons to
> _serve_ him" emphasis added. Not just bind the nine moons to him, but
> to serve him. Personally I'll be very interested to see how Rand pulls
> this off, becuase just meeting her, even if he is Ta'veren is unlikely
> to change her mind.
>
This is Rand's truce, and Mat's marriage. And keep in mind that if
Rand makes a truce with Tuon, she may not want to antagonize him
anymore than Mat.
-Bill E. Brooks
Tim Bruening
Net.A...@gmail.com wrote:
6. Presumably, the rebel AS will not have drunk the forkroot tea, so they
can come to the Tower's rescue when Egwene commands them to.
Egwene: Help!!!!!!!! Most the AS as fast asleep, and Seanchan are attacking
the Tower!
> Speculations:
>
> 1. I keep returning to the prophecies associated with the Tower attack.
> What possible reason could a Seanchan have for aiding Egwene? And how
> could she be in more trouble than she is now for Gawyn to save her?
> Even if the Seanchan capture her, they will make her Damane again, and
> they never execute damane.
>
> 2. The Forsaken MUST know about the impending Seanchan attack on the
> Tower through Semirhage and countless DarkFriends. At the Forsaken
> Social Messana claimed everything going on surrounding the White Tower
> as her plan as she came up with it. From Moridin's response the plan
> has been adopted as Nae'blis policy to be run by him.
>
> 3. Unless Egeanin ends up at the White Tower, which seems exceedingly
> unlikely with so little book time left, the Seanchan in Egwenes dream
> must be one that comes with the attack.
>
> 4. The only thing I can think of to put Egwene in true danger, and
> change a Seanchan's world view enough to team up with a marath'damane
> is if the Forsaken /Black Ajah/Dark Asha'man take a hand in things.
You mean the Seanchan who invaded the Tower?
Tim Bruening
Bill wrote:
Because Mat would divorce her?
Tim Bruening
"Bill E. Brooks" wrote:
Mat to Tuon: Withdraw your troops from the White Tower, or I will blow the
Horn of Valere again to summon the Heros of the Horn to smite you!
ajr
Tim Bruening wrote:
> Mat to Tuon: Withdraw your troops from the White Tower, or I will blow the
> Horn of Valere again to summon the Heros of the Horn to smite you!
Tuon to Mat: [raps him on the head] I'll have no more superstition out
of you Toy. Horn of Valere summoning dead heroes...sheesh, Toy when
will you stop jumping at shadows? Oh excuse me, an owl just hooted. I
must change my life plan.
Tim Bruening
ajr wrote:
Mat after blowing the Horn: Tuon, meet Artur Hawkwing.
Tim Bruening
ajr wrote:
Didn't Tuon hear about the fisaco at Falme?
Tim Bruening
Net.A...@gmail.com wrote:
6. Presumably, the rebel AS will not have drunk the forkroot tea, so
they
can come to the Tower's rescue when Egwene commands them to.
Egwene in T'A'R: Help!!!!!!!! The Seanchan have captured me, Elaida, and
many other AS!!!!!
> The circle of 13 Myrdraal 13 Black Ajah would certainly be a threat big
> enough to force a Seanchan to start working with an marath'Damane as a
> person and something the Seanchan and Gawyn may be needed to save her
> and the White Tower from. The White Tower turned into a Black Ajah
> producing factory for Aes Sedai and maybe even Damane. It would be a
> worthy Forsaken plan for controlling the world unveiled in the last
> book as part of the master plan for the dark side winning.
How could a Seanchan and Gawyn save Egwene from having been turned by
such a circle?
dwn
Yes. In KOD, Dragons's Eggs she tells Mat she suspects the Dragon blew
the Horn of Valere at Falme.
-- dwn
Tim Bruening
Tim Bruening
ajr wrote:
Divorce Petition of Mat: My wife is a power hungry lunatic!
Timothy Bruening
Timothy Bruening
Timothy Bruening
> Net.A...@gmail.com wrote:
> > KoD Spoilers Below
> the Tower!
I was surprised when the Salidar AS' army did NOT intervene en masse when the Seanchan attacked the White Tower! It would have been a golden opportunity to A: Gain control of the WT, and B: Gain the allegeance of many of the Tower AS, who out of gratitude would switch their support to Egwene.
Oddly enough, the forkroot bit did not come to pass.
Timothy Bruening
Why didn't Elaida Foretell her capture by the Seanchan?
Does Elaida the damane still have Foretellings?