By all accounts and by all sources, it’s a disastrous result for a
$200M Marvel Studios movie. But, wait, didn’t you declare Apple
Original Studios’ and Paramount’s $200M Killers of the Flower Moon
at $44M a success a few weeks ago? Just sit down, I’ll explain in a
bit.
The Marvels misfire is about the rusting of a platinum brand that’s
in need of some serious –not polishing, rather, resurfacing. Months
ago, who would of thought that Universal/Blumhouse’s Five Nights at
Freddys two weeks ago in a day-and-date debut on Peacock would post
a higher opening at the box office ($80M) than The Marvels? It’s
interesting to put the two pieces of IP side-by-side, because it
says something about Universal and Disney’s ability to harness fans
around an event.
As we mentioned earlier, there’s a maelstrom of reasons why The
Marvels didn’t work. Many will be quick to point to “Superhero
fatigue,” and that the great comic book movies of the millennium are
now seeing their grand demise, just like the big Hollywood musicals
of the 1960s.
No.
Also, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 didn’t do too shabby for
Disney, with a $118.4M opening and $359M domestic and $845M, etc.
Excellent superhero movies sell, and there was no pulse on The
Marvels going back to San Diego Comic-Con. I mean, despite the
actors strike, there wasn’t a damn banner, billboard, or emblazoned
logo plastic bag in the city. I mean, Disney could have at least
dropped a featurette or a trailer to fans to wow them out in Hall H
and send them into a social media frenzy. Why miss out on that
opportunity before the 150K who still attended? It’s as though
Disney knew this whipped-cream sequel was a dud and cut their
losses.
But more to the point, Marvel Studios, The Marvels — with its
crossover streaming series blah-blah — looks like it was built to be
seen in homes, not to get audiences off the couch.
Disney’s delay of the next phase of the MCU is because of the
actors’ strike — with Deadpool 3 being the only pic from the studio
on the 2024 calendar, on July 26 — though an immediate curse for
exhibition, is apt to be a blessing in the long run, as the studio
concentrates on making better movies. Hopefully, absence will make
fans’ hearts grow fonder.
But the whole actors strike of it all, right? Yes, that’s part of
the problem here that has tied Disney’s hands from blasting this
movie out more, and thespians’ being forbidden to promote struck
work has diluted ticket sales greatly this autumn season.
But as one tracking source pushes back, “I can’t imagine that the
complete absence of Brie Larson on The Marvels campaign tour has
cost the sequel $106M in its opening from the first film. Surely,
there’s something else going on.”
However, all streaming services associated with the majors are still
losing money. For Apple, theatrical is a bonus on Killers of the
Flower Moon, and they didn’t make the movie for theatrical, rather,
locking people into their ecosystem. This compared to the fact that
Disney institutional shareholders demand short-term profitably from
their OTT service and content.
A more severe question to ask — could Disney have opened a 3 1/2
hour older adult movie to $23M at the domestic box office during an
actors strike? Could Disney have opened three-hour Oppenheimer about
a WW II physicist to $82.4M right before an actors strike?
Movies like that are out of the Mouse house’s wheelhouse.
******
The chart…
1.) The Marvels (Dis) 4,030 theaters, Fri $21.5M 3-day $47M-$52M/Wk
1
2.) Five Nights at Freddy’s (Uni) 3,694 (-95) theaters, Fri $3M (-
45%) 3-day $9M (-53%), Total $127.2M/Wk 3
4.) Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Par) 3,357 (-429) theaters Fri
$1.5M (-23%) 3-day $5M (-27%)/Total $60.2M/Wk 4
5.) Priscilla (A24) 2,361 (+1002) theaters, Fri $1.6M (-18%) 3-day
$4.8M (-4%), Total $12.7M/Wk 3
Behold A24 continues rebirth of the arthouse post pandemic with a -
4% third weekend hold. Granted, the movie went wide on another 1,000
theaters, but it shows interest in this Sofia Coppola film. Industry
outlook is $20M which will rep the director’s second highest at the
box office after her Oscar winner Lost in Translation ($44.5M).
6.) The Holdovers (Foc) 778 (+714) theaters Fri $1.23M (+510%)/3-day
$3M (+428%), Total $4M/Wk 3
7.) Journey to Bethlehem (Sony) 2,002 theaters Fri $1M 3-day $2.83M
/Wk 1
Despite an A- CinemaScore, no faith-based audience member wanted to
see a pop musical about The Nativity. Enough said about what works
and doesn’t work at the box office.
8.) Paw Patrol 2 (Par) 1,779 (-625) theaters, Fri $545K (+29%) 3-day
$1.575M (-22%) Total $64.3M/Wk 7
9.) Radical (Pant) 534 (+115) theaters, Fri $472K (-47%) 3-day
$1.52M (-42%)/Total $4.97M/Wk 2
Other:
Dream Scenario (A24) 6 theaters Fri $98,6K, PTA $37,3K 3-day $224K
Wk 1
Pretty good numbers we’re told from AMC Century City, AMC Grove, AMC
Burbank, and NYC the Angelika, AMC Lincoln Square and Alamo
Brooklyn. The last theater there is the best of the pack with a
$20K+ running cume so far on this Ari Aster produced, Kristofer
Borgli directed, Nicolas Cage homage satire.
Wait a second — what about Howard the Duck, which debuted to $5M in
1986? We’re talking about all those movies steered and produced by
Kevin Feige, largely while he was producing Paramount and Disney
Marvel movies (Incredible Hulk being in the canon, with cameos by
Iron Man’s Robert Downey Jr).
But more to the low openings for Marvel movies. There have been
others outside Disney’s MCU, i.e. Sony/Marvel’s Morbius ($39M in
2022), 20th Century Fox’s 2015 Fantastic Four reboot ($25.6M),
1998’s Blade at $17M and Fox/Marvel’s Daredevil spinoff Elektra at
$12.8M. Comparing The Marvels to those movies, it’s not the lowest
ever for a feature Marvel adaptation.
Friday looks to be $21M-$22M, including previews, for the pic
starring Brie Larson, Teyonah Parris and Iman Vellani. Hopefully,
the last-minute stunting with stars back to work after the actors
strike helps.
No. 2 belongs to third weekend of Universal/Blumhouse’s Peacock
day-and-date title Five Nights at Freddy’s, which is at 3,691
theaters with $2.6M Friday and 3-day $7.8M, -59%, and $126M running
total.
The fear out there by many is that this $200M budgeted sequel to
2019’s Captain Marvel –which stands as the highest grossing female
superhero movie of all-time–could clock the lowest start ever
stateside for a Marvel Studios movie; lower than The Incredible Hulk
(which was a Universal release before Disney absorbed the MCU) which
had a $55.4M start. While tracking took its projections down from
$80M to $60M for The Marvels, there is a concern out there that The
Marvels could see a $40M+ start.
Advance ticket sales of $5M indicated The Marvels was flying into
The Flash‘s territory opening wise. However, The Flash‘s preview
figure was higher at $9.7M off showtimes that began at 3PM Thursday.
Critical reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are at 61% fresh, but the RT
audience score is higher at 85% — which is promising, however, the
die-hards always come out on Thursday night. Thursday night PostTrak
exits from ComScore/Screen Engine were severe for general audiences
at 3.5 stars, but 4 1/2 stars from parents and 5 stars from kids
under 12. That said, kids and parents combined only repped 9% of
last night’s audience. The Marvels skewed guys at 63% with men over
25 the biggest turnout at 45% and women over 25 at 24%. That latter
demo gave the best recommendation grades of any demo at 61%.
There’s a cacophony of reasons why The Marvels isn’t playing to
better levels, one of them being the recently ended actors strike
which stifled the pic’s promotion at San Diego and NY Comic-Cons. In
the last two days since the strike ended, the pic’s cast is in a
whirlwind to show up on late night TV (Brie Larson set to appear on
The Tonight Show tonight) and also show up at movie-theaters; Iman
Vellani and director Nia DaCosta doing so yesterday at Hollywood’s
El Captain.
Larson given the strike’s end can finally scream to the world that
The Marvels are here:
Social media analytics firm RelishMix notices that chatter on “The
Marvels is tracking mixed leaning toward discontent, while debating
issues of superhero fatigue and comparing this title to Marvel
titles over the last decade stating, ‘We all miss The Avengers.’
Added frustration comes from the need to watch several of the TV
series to get up to speed on the movie.”
The social media universe per RelishMix for The Marvels across
TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, X and YouTube views stands at 599M
which is 14% under comps norms for superhero titles. Ugh.
Another movie set to crash this weekend is Sony/Affirm’s faith-based
musical Journey to Bethlehem which earned $250K last night from
previews that began at 2PM from 1,823 locations. The pic is set to
arrive in the low single digits.
Elsewhere at the box office Universal/Blumhouse’s second Thursday of
its Peacock day-and-date Five Nights Freddys did $1.1M yesterday,
+15% from Wednesday, for a second week of $24M and running total of
$118.2M at 3,789 theaters.
Paramount’s Killers of the Flower Moon posted an estimated $650K, -
8%, for a third week of $9.95M and running total of $55.2M at 3,786
theaters.
A24’s Priscilla at 1,359 saw a second Thursday of $627K, +8%, second
week of $7.5M and running total of $7.8M.
Angel Studios’ After Death booked at 2,730 theaters saw a $200K
Thursday, -20%, and $3.08M second week for a $10M running total.
https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-the-marvels-1235599363/
Did Disney really think we were going to pay to see a bullshit chick
flick where some 100 pound cunt beats up 200 pound men...?
Get a fucking clue.