Population of Arnor (and related military matters)
Roger Clewley
Reposted material:
Though the Prologue of the LotR implies that Arnor during the period
of the
kingdom once had a fairly advanced social and economic structure, it
is strongly
implied that the means of life for the Dunedain of Arnor had strongly
diminished
since then. A simple agricultural economy would be able to support
only a small
proportion of its men permanently embodied in some kind of military
activity --
including as Rangers. Most of the men would be needed to work
on the farms most
of the time. Much larger numbers could be called up for short
periods, but a
journey all the way done to Gondor could not be included in such a
summons.
[There is some deleted draft material in the HOME 8 that Tolkien was
not unaware
of these kinds of considerations -- in this case the Rohirrim].
There is a passage in the Tale of Arwen and Aragon that states the women
of the
Dunedain of Arnor did not as a rule did not marry young. Aragon's
mother was an
exception. Late marriage even amongst the long-lived Dunedain
would reduce the
numbers of children in each age cohort. It is also implied that
the Dunedain
rarely had large families and that widows/widowers only rarely re-married.
All
these social customs would mean a fairly static population in size
and one
unable to replace losses at any speed.
Population size:
If one had a really alot of time on one's hands, there is a way to get
some population estimates for Arnor. There is in the
anthropological literature some models used to estimate population
size. Define the area of study and its relative fertility (how
much crop land, pasture land and non-agricultural land in the study
area -> for Arnor you could subjectively postulately several
levels from low to high), then introduce variables such for agricultural productivity (multiple cropping, technology (plow or hoe),
cereal or mixed cropping, et cetera) and also include climatic variables,
you could produce high to low estimates of the
potential population of this area. Now I don't think anyone will
ever do it, but it would give someone really, really interested
in the subject some hard numbers to play with.
Military Matters:
From Tom Hatry's postings, I gather he is most interested in the military
consequences of the size of Arnor's Dúnedain
population. Another method is compare Arnor to other areas in
Middle Earth where there is some information about numbers
can be gleaned. The only area with a significant amount of information
from the time of the War of the Ring is Rohan. Are they
in any way comparable? The following clearly is on the basis of
conjecture and extrapolation (in order to have some fun with
the numbers), no claims are made here that is the 'truth'.
Well for Arnor, we know that the Dúnedain of Cardolan and Rhudaur
had become extinct and that there had been no
successful recolonization of these former kingdoms. For the lands
of the former Arthedain, the Shire and Breeland and its
adjacent territories can be assumed to have had no population of Dúnedain.
Nor do the North Downs seem likely to have held
any population of Dúnedain (though there may have been other
peoples living there). Nothernmost Eriador seems to have
been the abode of the various peoples of the Forodwaith like the Lossoth,
so there is unlikely to have been any Dúnedain
there. Therefore only in the valley of the Lune, the Hills of
Evendim and the lands between these Hills and the North Downs
were you likely to have any significant Dúnedain populations
(or any related or allied peoples). Not all the valley of the Lune
was available to Dúnedain settlement, the region west
of the Lune and north of the Little Lune was Dwarvish controlled
territory [the Lower-lands of the former (and quite possibly still
existing) Nogrod and its sister cities]. Thus defined, this area
of the former Arthedain was comparable to Rohan in size.
Rohan would appear to have beeen a more fertile country and
certainly one retaining a form of central governance. Probably
therefore it could maintain a higher population in its crop lands.
However at least half the land of Rohan seems to have been used for
transhument pastoralism. This would substatially reduce
the number of people sustainable on these lands -- at the same time
as increasing the numbers of horses available to Rohirrim
society. It is still probable with these assumptions that Rohan
could raise a larger army than any assemblage created by the
remaininng Dúnedain of Arnor and related allies amongst the
Men in Eriador, but perhaps not many times larger.. So what does
Tolkien say about the military potential of the Rohirrim?
Actually Tolkien is more forth coming on the Rohirrim than any people
in Middle Earth. The textual references are scattered
about amongst the unfinished and finished works, but they are mutually
consistent so are probably able to considered as a
whole.
Riders of Rohan
Defined as "men well-horsed, fully armed and with gear and provisions to ride to battle far away". Most were lancers, but with
a minority of horse archers. In the military re-organization during
King Folcwine's reign, " 'a full éored' in battle order was
reckoned to be one hundreth part of the Full Muster of the Riders of
the mark, not including the King's Household. [...] The
Rohirrim had increased since the days of Folcwine, and before the attacks
of Saruman a Full Musterwould probably have
produced many more than twelve thousand Riders, so that Rohan would
not have been denuded entirely of trained defenders."
Even assuming a fairly conservative growth rate in the more than one
hundred years since Folcwine's military re-organization,
this would produce a Full Muster of Riders at the time of theWar of
the Ring in the 13,000 to 15,000 range. On the other
hand, the population of the west-marches were passively if not actively
hostile to the Kings of Rohan. Some porportion of the
12,000 plus Riders must be deducted to represent their non-participation.
The Riders of the Muster of the West-mark under
Theodred certainly took some casualties as did those from the Muster
of Edoras in the forces under the command of Theoden
and Elfhelm. It is stated that after the war with Saruman, there
were somewhat less than 10,000 Riders available for war. Of
these, some six thousand were used in the expedition to Minas Tirith
and the remainder used for home defence.
[NB. The strength of an éored is stated in the Unfinished Tales to be an one hundreth portion of the total strength of the muster
of Riders in the reign of King Folcwine, it is origin in the works of
Tolkien more probably lies in the fact it is the size of the
tradtional strength of a Norse "hird", in particular the King's hird.
One hundred and twenty is the old Norse 'long hundred'.
And the influence of Norse and Anglo-Saxon society is clearly strong
in Tolkien's depiction of these societies.
Other Troops:
These are defined as "men of foot or with ponies, with sword and shield,
or bowmen and light armed men of the dales". No
estimate prior to the War of the Ring is available from Tolkien.
After the end of the war with Saruman , they were reckoned to
be "as many again' as the somewhat less than 10,000 Riders. Once
again the population of the west-marches of Rohan are
probably not counted amongst these troops. The infantry of the
Muster of the West-mark can be taken to have suffered much
more heavily than the Riders in the war with Saruman. We are
probably talking casualties numbering in the hundreds at least, if
not more. Prior to theWar of the Ring, the infantry component
of the Musters of Edoras, East-mark and West-mark must
have numbered well over 10,000 men, at least equalling the number of
the Full Master of Riders. Adding in boys and old men
and those left behind to guard the families and keep the farms functioning,
the number must grow to well over 20,000 men.
[NB: these troops are the equivalent of the Anglo-Saxon fyrd militia
and even more so, the Norse leidangr levies.]
The Unarmed?:
From at latest the reign of Aldor the Old and perhaps earlier, there
was an under-population of Dunlendings (and their
decendants) living east of the Isen who had been subdued. It
is likely these people would have form a permanent under-class
in Rohanian society. The events of the Long Winter would likely
have reinforced this. In such a case, it could well be that
these Dunlendings would have no military obligation at all and may
have not even been allowed to bear or train for arms.
and Arnor...?:
So what does this mean for Arnor? Assuming that the lands of the
Dúnedain of Arnor (and any related or allied peoples) were
much less fertile than those of Rohan, then we could estimate a population
of only a quarter to a third that of Rohan. This
would mean some 7500 to 12000 men with some form of military obligation.
Of these, only 2000 to 4000 could likely formed
into a field army in the lands of the northwest. And it is similarly
likely, that only say 500 men could have been found "fully
armed and with gear and provisions to ride to battle far away" if its
military resources were fully mustered. Which only echos
the council at Rivendell, where it was said this region was not able
to help Gondor by force of arms. Of course, the Dúnedain
of Arnor would not have the cavalry strength of Rohan, even in proportion
to it, not having the horse herds of that country (and
if true to their forefathers using horses only transport anyways).
If indeed the Dúnedain of Arnor were relatively impoverished
in comparison to the Rohirrim as argued here, then the relative proportion
of families wealthy enough to arm the Dúnedain of
Arnor equivalent of a Rider of Rohan would be much smaller anyways.
Roger Clewley
PS. I use followng list to describe the ethnic relations between
the various peoples of the northwest of Middle Earth from the
First to Fouth Ages. It is does not purport to be unchallengably
accurate or 'absolutely authentic to Tolkien's truth', just my
attempt to create a listing of the peoples (or folk in the old usage)
in the N.W. of Middle Earth. Anyways it helps me in my
writings on Middle Earth subjects.
Ethnological Notes:
The following is not terminology used by Tolkien, but I believe is useful
in showing ethnic relationships between the various
peoples of Middle Earth. The word "folk" is used here in its
original meaning of people or ethnic group. Of course, the
following is a pastiche in the nomenculture of the style of Tolkien.
Peoples are linked by textual references and similarites of
depiction in physical form and social customs.
Dúnedain:
Men of Ethir Anduin, Men of Anorien, Men of Ithilien, Men of Belfalas
(somewhat mixed with original inhabitants: elves and
men), ?Men of Pinnath Gelin, Dúnedain of Arthedain, Dúnedain
of Cardolan (no longer extant), and Dúnedain of Rhhudaur (no
longer extant).
First Folk:
The First House of the Edain (Bëorians), the People of Bereg, the
"Men in Eriador" (clans certainly included some Third Folk
peoples; most clans lived in the area of the future Arthedain).
Second Folk:
The Second House of the Edain (the Haladin), the People of Bor (the
"Eastrons" of Beleriand - exterminated in Beleriand but
those remaining in northern Eriador surving into the S.A.), the people
of Ulfang (the "Eastrons" of Beleriand and ?Hilthum), the
food growers of the Lowerlands of Gabilgathol (the "Eastrons" of Beleriand),
the food growers of the Lowerlands of
Tumunzahar (the "Eastrons" of Beleriand), the Gwathuirim (original
population of Enedwaith and Minhirnaith in the Second
Age), the Gwathuirim (the Fisher-folk of western Enedwaith), the Gwathuirim
(the Dunlendings), Men of Anfalas, Men of
Lebennin (much mixed with the Dúnedain), Men of Morthond, Men
of Lamedon, Men of Lossarnach, Men of the White
Mountains, Men of Cardolan.
Third Folk:
The Third House of the Edain (the House of Hador), People of Amlach,
Forodwaith, Lossoth, Men of Angmar, Hill-men of
Rhudaur and the Misty Mountains, the Éotheod, the Beornings,
the Rohirrim (the Eorlingas), the Woodmen, the Northmen of
Rhovanion, the "Cruels", the Fell Folk of the East, the Men of Dale
(the Bardings).
Fourth Folk:
Hobbits: Harfoots, Fallohides and Stoors. More specifically
the Hobbits of the Shire (Suza), the Hobbits of Breeland, the
Stoors of the the Angle of Rhudaur, the Stoors of Northern Dunland,
the Stoors of western Eregion and southeast Cardolan,
Harfoots of the Dimrell Dale and Lowerlands of Dwarrowdelf (the food
growers of Azanulbizar and the Lowerlands of the
Kingdom of Khazâd-dum), Stoors of the Gladden Fields, Fallohides
of northern Rhudaur.
Fifth Folk:
Haradrim: Harns (?land S-SW of Mordor), Barangils (an odd name:
Baran -> eg. light/golden brown + Gil -> eg. star >>>
perhaps a mixture of Haradrim and 'King's Men' Numenoreans?) and Men
of Umbar (again a mixture of Haradrim and
Numenoreans).