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Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Fall More Than Forecast

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Leroy N. Soetoro

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Sep 21, 2015, 4:49:14 PM9/21/15
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/sales-of-existing-u-s-
homes-fell-more-than-forecast-in-august

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell more than forecast in August as
lean inventories slowed this year’s momentum.

Closings, which usually take place a month or two after a contract is
signed, declined 4.8 percent to a 5.31 million annual rate from a revised
5.58 million pace that was the strongest since 2007, the National
Association of Realtors reported Monday. Prices climbed and the number of
homes on the market decreased from the same time a year ago.

Limited availability of homes on the market is making it difficult for
some Americans to take advantage of low interest rates and relocate after
a recovery in property values. While home sales have improved this year,
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the pace of
improvement has been inconsistent with a firmer labor market and
demographics that should provide a bigger boost.

“Inventories are still holding back sales,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief
economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh, whose 5.4 million
forecast was among the lowest in a Bloomberg survey. “Momentum is there --
more jobs, more income, more credit availability and still-stable mortgage
rates.”

The Realtors group’s latest 2015 estimate for previously owned home sales
is 5.29 million, up 7.1 percent from a year earlier.

Economists’ Forecasts
The drop in August was the biggest in seven months. The median forecast of
73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for August sales to ease to a
5.5 million annual rate. Estimates ranged from 5.4 million to 5.62 million
after an initially reported 5.59 million in July.

Existing home sales, which are tallied only when purchase contracts close,
account for more than 90 percent of the residential market.

Compared with a year earlier, purchases increased 5.4 percent in August
before adjusting for seasonal variations.

The median price of an existing home rose 4.7 percent from August 2014 to
$228,700. The appreciation was led by a 7.1 percent year-to-year advance
in the West, while the South had a 6 percent increase.

Prices have been rising because of a lean supply of available properties.

The number of previously owned homes for sale rose 1.3 percent in August
to 2.29 million, the highest in a year. Compared with August 2014,
inventory dropped 1.7 percent.

Lean Stocks
“We have had a tight inventory situation and we continue to experience a
tight inventory situation,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, told
reporters as the figures were released. “As consumers are hit with
affordability, there’s less buying activity potentially.”

At the current sales pace, it would take 5.2 months to sell those houses,
compared with 4.9 months at the end of the prior month. Less than a five
months’ supply is considered a tight market, the Realtors group has said.
Properties stayed on the market for 47 days in August, down from 53 days
in the same month last year.

By Region
Purchases decreased in three of four regions, led by a 7.8 percent slump
in the West, the Realtors’ data show. Sales were unchanged in the
Northeast.

Sales of existing single-family homes decreased 5.3 percent to an annual
rate of 4.69 million. Purchases of multifamily properties -- including
condominiums and townhouses -- fell 1.6 percent to a 620,000 pace.

Of all purchases, cash transactions accounted for about 22 percent, the
report showed. First-time buyers accounted for 32 percent of all purchases
in August, matching the highest share of the year, the report showed. Even
with the increase, it’s below the more normal share, which is closer to 40
percent, Yun said.

Distressed sales, comprised of foreclosures and short sales -- in which
the lender agrees to a transaction for less than the balance of the
mortgage -- accounted for 7 percent of the total, matching the lowest
since October 2008.

Housing Starts
Data last week from the Commerce Department show that builders should stay
busy in the months ahead.

While residential starts declined 3 percent to a 1.13 million annualized
rate from a 1.16 million pace the prior month that was slower than
previously estimated, applications to begin work jumped. Permits for
single-family home construction, the largest and most economically
significant part of the market, climbed to the highest level since January
2008.

Steady job gains and historically low mortgage rates are building blocks
for the housing market. At 5.1 percent, the U.S. jobless rate is the
lowest since April 2008.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.91 percent last week,
according to Freddie Mac data. That compares with the 6.06 percent average
in the five years leading to the last recession.

Fed policy makers decided last week to keep their benchmark interest rate
near zero, showing reluctance to end an era of record monetary stimulus in
a time of market turmoil, rising international risks and scant inflation.
Yellen said at a press conference after the announcement that residential
real estate remained “very depressed” but probably would show improvement
as job and income growth improves.

“We are not too concerned because we think Fed policy changes will not
have too big of an impact on mortgage rates,” Yun said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/sales-of-existing-u-s-
homes-fell-more-than-forecast-in-august



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