Atlantis Due date?
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Hugh Smitham
Jan 28, 2021, 9:57:26 PM1/28/21
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Anyone know when the new batch of Atlantis will be delivered to the ye olde Rivendell Hq?
TIA,
Hugh
André P
Jan 29, 2021, 11:24:16 AM1/29/21
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From Will's "End of 2020 frame round-up" email, the Atlantii should be coming August/September. Not sure if this timeline has been updated since.
Patrick Moore
Jan 29, 2021, 5:05:23 PM1/29/21
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What is holding up stock, is it production or supply chain, or both? That is, are factories still at part capacity because of Covid, or is shipping from manufacturing countries just backed up with too many orders? I'm curious, because I was just talking to someone at the LBS who told me that they can't get hold of the entry-level mountain bikes that are in highest demand; he said it's less the frames than the parts to build them, and they're looking at similar timelines.
Too bad that Riv has to wait while people are eager to buy.
In other news, an exotic Sturmey Archer hub shipped Thursday, 1/21 from England arrived Tuesday 1/26 in ABQ, NM -- perhaps Her Majesty's Postal Service expedites old British iron. We'll see if this repeats; just placed another order from same vendor for 2 ancient SA cogs.
In yet other news, my Veruskeleta order placed on 12/31 is still sitting on the dock in Helsinki (does Helsinki have a dock? Yes, just checked Google Maps: it fronts the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bohemia) waiting for someone to transport it to NM. Really annoying, because I padded the order to make the free shipping minimum, and I expect that, had I paid shipping instead of paying for the odds and ends I only sorta kinda wanted, I'd have received the order long ago.
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Patrick Moore
Alburquerque, Nuevo Mexico, Etats Unis d'Amerique, Orbis Terrarum
brendonoid
Jan 31, 2021, 5:42:53 AM1/31/21
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But I would assume that when you have a trained workforce (say people with the skill to weld/braze bicycle frames) You have x amount of capacity in a factory. You can't just magic more workers and a bigger factory because demand has suddenly spiked. Financially it doesnt make sense to invest in growing your business either because that demand increase is percieved to be a bubble or anomoly, you wouldn't want to spend all your sudden profits on capacity you wont need next year.
Also the nature of the bubble has restricted your current workforce AND your supply chain is experiencing the exact same problems you are.
Shipping is also at capacity but I can tell you that is the most flexible and most easily overcome obstacle.
aeroperf
Jan 31, 2021, 11:30:48 AM1/31/21
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Patrick—
It is both.
Example: a lot of bike components are made in China, but they are having blackout problems due to a coal spat with Australia.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinese-Cities-Go-Dark-Amid-Energy-Spat-With-Australia.html
Example: there is the global shipping container shortage (actually the containers are in the wrong places), which jacks up the shipping costs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/shipping-container-shortage-is-causing-shipping-costs-to-rise.html
If you put 1000 frames in a container and the cost goes from $1200 ($1.20/frame) to $6000 ($6/frame) you can probably absorb it. But what if that happens for chains, or derailleurs?
It is both.
Example: a lot of bike components are made in China, but they are having blackout problems due to a coal spat with Australia.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinese-Cities-Go-Dark-Amid-Energy-Spat-With-Australia.html
Example: there is the global shipping container shortage (actually the containers are in the wrong places), which jacks up the shipping costs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/shipping-container-shortage-is-causing-shipping-costs-to-rise.html
If you put 1000 frames in a container and the cost goes from $1200 ($1.20/frame) to $6000 ($6/frame) you can probably absorb it. But what if that happens for chains, or derailleurs?
Add these problems to brendonoid’s excellent post, and things are just getting slow.
It will loosen up again, but until it does we wait.
ascpgh
Jan 31, 2021, 1:42:44 PM1/31/21
to RBW Owners Bunch
I think the focus of conjecture should be the number of logistic links that exist in each subcomponent of a complete bicycle. It's not enough to point out the inability of lesser priced parts like chains and derailleurs to "eat" the shipping cost increases but to look at the number of shipments of supplies are represented by the makers of those parts. If a chain maker loses timely supply of the rodstock they make into rollers you could have chain becoming a secondary delay to the complete product.
Andy Cheatham
Pittsburgh
Eric Norris
Jan 31, 2021, 4:07:29 PM1/31/21
to RBW
Patrick:
I’ve run out of places in the USA to buy used cameras from, and recently started ordering from sellers in Europe and former Soviet Union. A small package from Lithuania arrived this week after being in transit for about six weeks. It was interesting (and frustrating) to watch the online tracking, which unlike USPS shipments involved extended periods during which nothing changed. The package left a post office in Lithuania and then … crickets, until it popped up in Chicago about three weeks later. Then it left Chicago heading for California, but again it went dark until the day before delivery, when it was logged in at the local post office.
I joked with my daughter that it would be handed to me by a very tired employee of the Lithuanian post office, who would have ridden a small donkey all the way from Lithuania.
On Jan 29, 2021, at 2:05 PM, Patrick Moore <bert...@gmail.com> wrote:
What is holding up stock, is it production or supply chain, or both? That is, are factories still at part capacity because of Covid, or is shipping from manufacturing countries just backed up with too many orders? I'm curious, because I was just talking to someone at the LBS who told me that they can't get hold of the entry-level mountain bikes that are in highest demand; he said it's less the frames than the parts to build them, and they're looking at similar timelines.Too bad that Riv has to wait while people are eager to buy.In other news, an exotic Sturmey Archer hub shipped Thursday, 1/21 from England arrived Tuesday 1/26 in ABQ, NM -- perhaps Her Majesty's Postal Service expedites old British iron. We'll see if this repeats; just placed another order from same vendor for 2 ancient SA cogs.In yet other news, my Veruskeleta order placed on 12/31 is still sitting on the dock in Helsinki (does Helsinki have a dock? Yes, just checked Google Maps: it fronts the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bohemia) waiting for someone to transport it to NM. Really annoying, because I padded the order to make the free shipping minimum, and I expect that, had I paid shipping instead of paying for the odds and ends I only sorta kinda wanted, I'd have received the order long ago.
On Fri, Jan 29, 2021 at 9:24 AM André P <end...@gmail.com> wrote:
From Will's "End of 2020 frame round-up" email, the Atlantii should be coming August/September. Not sure if this timeline has been updated since.
<sched.jpg>On Thursday, January 28, 2021 at 6:57:26 PM UTC-8 Hugh Smitham wrote:Anyone know when the new batch of Atlantis will be delivered to the ye olde Rivendell Hq?TIA,Hugh--
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------Patrick MooreAlburquerque, Nuevo Mexico, Etats Unis d'Amerique, Orbis Terrarum--
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Benz Ouyang, Sunnyvale, CA
Jan 31, 2021, 7:36:29 PM1/31/21
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On Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 1:07:29 PM UTC-8 campyo...@me.com wrote:
I joked with my daughter that it would be handed to me by a very tired employee of the Lithuanian post office, who would have ridden a small donkey all the way from Lithuania.
Don't you mean a mixte with upright handlebars and giant panniers to carry the rest of the packages from Lithuanian to California? That would be an epic bike tour!
Hugh Smitham
Jan 31, 2021, 11:36:57 PM1/31/21
to RBW Owners Bunch
I spoke with Vince on Friday on my way off the grid into Nevada and camping on
Lake Mojave. Vince said August /September which confirms Andre's image/post. Although, he also said possibly the end of the year or even early 2022!?
As to the supply chain debate, it is interesting to reads folks ideas/opinions as a spectator. Since I don't read the Blaug I was mainly interested in the Atlantis delivery time frame and figured someone who does read it knew the official Riv HQ time.
Best,
Hugh
On Thursday, January 28, 2021 at 6:57:26 PM UTC-8 Hugh Smitham wrote:
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