Agricultural Simulator: Historical Farming Full Crack [key Serial]
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Climate change negatively affects all four pillars of food security: availability, access, utilisation and stability. Food availability may be reduced by negative climate change impacts on productivity of crops, livestock and fish, due, for instance, to increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns. Productivity is also negatively affected by increased pests and diseases, as well as changing distributions of pollinators under climate change. Food access and its stability may be affected through disruption of markets, prices, infrastructure, transport, manufacture, and retail, as well as direct and indirect changes in income and food purchasing power of low-income consumers. Food utilisation may be directly affected by climate change due to increases in mycotoxins in food and feed with rising temperatures and increased frequencies of extreme events, and indirectly through effects on health. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations can increase yields at lower temperature increases, but tend to decrease protein content in many crops, reducing their nutritional values. Extreme events, for example, flooding, will affect the stability of food supply directly through disruption of transport and markets.
Agricultural Simulator: Historical Farming Full Crack [key Serial]
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Agricultural activities emit substantial amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Food supply chain activities past the farm gate (e.g., transportation, storage, packaging) also emit GHGs, for instance due to energy use. GHG emissions from food production vary across food types. Producing animal-sourced food (e.g., meat and dairy) emits larger amount of GHGs than growing crops, especially in intensive, industrial livestock systems. This is mainly true for commodities produced by ruminant livestock such as cattle, due to enteric fermentation processes that are large emitters of methane. Changing diets towards a lower share of animal-sourced food, once implemented at scale, reduces the need to raise livestock and changes crop production from animal feed to human food. This reduces the need for agricultural land compared to present and thus generates changes in the current food system. From field to consumer this would reduce overall GHG emissions. Changes in consumer behaviour beyond dietary changes, such as reduction of food waste, can also have, at scale, effects on overall GHG emissions from food systems. Consuming regional and seasonal food can reduce GHG emissions, if they are grown efficiently.
The current food system (production, transport, processing, packaging, storage, retail, consumption, loss and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Since 1961, food supply per capita has increased more than 30%, accompanied by greater use of nitrogen fertilisers (increase of about 800%) and water resources for irrigation (increase of more than 100%). However, an estimated 821 million people are currently undernourished, 151 million children under five are stunted, 613 million women and girls aged 15 to 49 suffer from iron deficiency, and 2 billion adults are overweight or obese. The food system is under pressure from non-climate stressors (e.g., population and income growth, demand for animal-sourced products), and from climate change. These climate and non-climate stresses are impacting the four pillars of food security (availability, access, utilisation, and stability). 5.1.1, 5.1.2
Observed climate change is already affecting food security through increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and greater frequency of some extreme events (high confidence). Studies that separate out climate change from other factors affecting crop yields have shown that yields of some crops (e.g., maize and wheat) in many lower-latitude regions have been affected negatively by observed climate changes, while in many higher-latitude regions, yields of some crops (e.g., maize, wheat, and sugar beets) have been affected positively over recent decades. Warming compounded by drying has caused large negative effects on yields in parts of the Mediterranean. Based on indigenous and local knowledge (ILK), climate change is affecting food security in drylands, particularly those in Africa, and high mountain regions of Asia and South America. 5.2.2
Vulnerability of pastoral systems to climate change is very high (high confidence). Pastoralism is practiced in more than 75% of countries by between 200 and 500 million people, including nomadic communities, transhumant herders, and agropastoralists. Impacts in pastoral systems in Africa include lower pasture and animal productivity, damaged reproductive function, and biodiversity loss. Pastoral system vulnerability is exacerbated by non-climate factors (land tenure, sedentarisation, changes in traditional institutions, invasive species, lack of markets, and conflicts). 5.2.2
Fruit and vegetable production, a key component of healthy diets, is also vulnerable to climate change (medium evidence, high agreement). Declines in yields and crop suitability are projected under higher temperatures, especially in tropical and semi-tropical regions. Heat stress reduces fruit set and speeds up development of annual vegetables, resulting in yield losses, impaired product quality, and increasing food loss and waste. Longer growing seasons enable a greater number of plantings to be cultivated and can contribute to greater annual yields. However, some fruits and vegetables need a period of cold accumulation to produce a viable harvest, and warmer winters may constitute a risk. 5.2.2
Food security and climate change have strong gender and equity dimensions (high confidence). Worldwide, women play a key role in food security, although regional differences exist. Climate change impacts vary among diverse social groups depending on age, ethnicity, gender, wealth, and class. Climate extremes have immediate and long-term impacts on livelihoods of poor and vulnerable communities, contributing to greater risks of food insecurity that can be a stress multiplier for internal and external migration (medium confidence). 5.2.6 Empowering women and rights-based approaches to decision-making can create synergies among household food security, adaptation, and mitigation. 5.6.4
Many practices can be optimised and scaled up to advance adaptation throughout the food system (high confidence). Supply-side options include increased soil organic matter and erosion control, improved cropland, livestock, grazing land management, and genetic improvements for tolerance to heat and drought. Diversification in the food system (e.g., implementation of integrated production systems, broad-based genetic resources, and heterogeneous diets) is a key strategy to reduce risks (medium confidence). Demand-side adaptation, such as adoption of healthy and sustainable diets, in conjunction with reduction in food loss and waste, can contribute to adaptation through reduction in additional land area needed for food production and associated food system vulnerabilities. ILK can contribute to enhancing food system resilience (high confidence). 5.3, 5.6.3 Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 5
Agriculture and the food system are key to global climate change responses. Combining supply-side actions such as efficient production, transport, and processing with demand-side interventions such as modification of food choices, and reduction of food loss and waste, reduces GHG emissions and enhances food system resilience (high confidence). Such combined measures can enable the implementation of large-scale land-based adaptation and mitigation strategies without threatening food security from increased competition for land for food production and higher food prices. Without combined food system measures in farm management, supply chains, and demand, adverse effects would include increased numbers of malnourished people and impacts on smallholder farmers (medium evidence, high agreement). Just transitions are needed to address these effects. 5.5, 5.6, 5.7
The current food system (production, transport, processing, packaging, storage, retail, consumption, loss and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Agriculture as an economic activity generates between 1% and 60% of national GDP in many countries, with a world average of about 4% in 2017 (World Bank 20191). Since 1961, food supply per capita has increased more than 30%, accompanied by greater use of nitrogen fertiliser (increase of about 800%) and water resources for irrigation (increase of more than 100%).
Climate change has direct impacts on food systems, food security, and, through the need to mitigate, potentially increases the competition for resources needed for agriculture. Responding to climate change through deployment of land-based technologies for negative emissions based on biomass production would increasingly put pressure on food production and food security through potential competition for land.
Using a food system approach, this chapter addresses how climate change affects food security, including nutrition, the options for the food system to adapt and mitigate, synergies and trade-offs among these options, and enabling conditions for their adoption. The chapter assesses the role of incremental and transformational adaptation, and the potential for combinations of supply-side measures such as sustainable intensification (increasing productivity per hectare) and demand-side measures (e.g., dietary change and waste reduction) to contribute to climate change mitigation.
The food system encompasses all the activities and actors in the production, transport, manufacturing, retailing, consumption, and waste of food, and their impacts on nutrition, health and well-being, and the environment (Figure 5.1).
Interlinkages between the climate system, food system, ecosystems (land, water and oceans) and socio-economic system. These systems operate at multiple scales, both global and regional. Food security is an outcome of the food system leading to human well-being, which is also indirectly linked with climate and ecosystems through the socio-economic system. Adaptation measures can help to reduce negative impacts of climate change on the food system and ecosystems. Mitigation measures can reduce GHG emissions coming from the food system and ecosystems.
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