February Saturday 8 meetup: 1-4 pm

[Timothy Underwood]

So the meetup place will be at my apartment again, on Saturday 8th from 1-4 pm:

66/B/1 Ulloi Ut

6th floor, door 3

Ring 27

Sorry for not having a meeting in January, I've been a bit busy with income generating projects + taking care of the toddler.

We're going to be talking next time about the question of if it makes sense for us to put point estimates on the probabilities and then use them for expected value calculations for events that are not drawing from a clearly understood probability distribution.

Does it make sense to say your P(Doom) is 50%, or should you be saying that it is between 10 and 90 percent? Or should you be saying that you have no idea, but you are fairly sure that it is plausible that things could go well and that we might all die without using any numbers at all?

Here is an essay talking about the general subject. It is rather long and technical. This subject has long interested Milan, and hopefully we can collaboratively explore this idea space. To highlight one thing from the article: Milan is quite interested in if the article's concept of "maximality" makes sense and if it's practical to use. If some of you might want to argue for the (seemingly much more common in LW circles) classical bayesian position of preferring point estimates (or any other positions), we can potentially have a nice and lively conversation.

Article in focus: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zMCHujoAdgiCYo7JN/should-you-go-with-your-best-guess-against-precise

Some further reading material for those who are especially interested in the general subject:
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/imprecise-probabilities/
https://sipta.org/info/documentation/

Hope to see lots of you there,

Tim Underwood

[Gábor Szabó]

I'm gonna be abroad. I am sorrry for missing this meeting, it is topic
which is very interesting for me.

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[István Magyary]

Sounds like a great discussion, but I won’t be able to make it, I have another commitment at that time. 

Hope it goes well!

Istvan  

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/rationality-budapest/CAPnuZWmryTy_82W-n1CiRGSdC%2BZBC7OHWT9B9rAQqmxhcJMe%2BA%40mail.gmail.com.

[ista...@gmail.com]

Dear Gabor,

Here is an option for you if you are interested: you could write what you think about this topic (either just a bit or more in depth, as you prefer), or what kind of questions you might have that interest you; either into this public group, or directly to me in an email. We may even incorporate some of what you write into the discussion and can try to summarize it for you afterwards, so you can be virtually present at the meetup, in a way. At any rate since this has long interested me, I'd be happy to hear from you what kind of thoughts you have on this in any way you see fit sharing.

Kind Regards,

Milan

On Fri, Jan 31, 2025 at 11:22 AM Gábor Szabó <v.sza...@gmail.com> wrote:

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/rationality-budapest/CAPnuZWmryTy_82W-n1CiRGSdC%2BZBC7OHWT9B9rAQqmxhcJMe%2BA%40mail.gmail.com.

[ista...@gmail.com]

Hi all,

RSVP opportunity: We usually don't do this, but here is an idea; to get a sense of how many people to expect please feel free to RSVP to this email with a 'yes' or 'maybe' on whether you are planning to come. Not a must just could be nice to see, and you can change your mind later too. I'm aware of about 5 people so far. (Alternatively RSVP is possible on the LW event page)

And since someone who might be coming for the first time asked me about bringing food and drinks, if you are similarly wondering, we've been doing this in multiple ways over the years. Currently there is not a big emphasis on snacks, but if you want you can bring stuff that you like and/or think others could like. Either classical snacks, or if you are aiming to be more healthy, some fruits or snackish vegetables are usually welcome, but not a must since about 3 hours might be ok to spend without food too.

Kind regards,

Milan

On Fri, Jan 31, 2025 at 7:57 AM Timothy Underwood <timund...@gmail.com> wrote:

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[trocsanyi peter]

Hi,

Gábor literally spoke my mind. Make good use of your time :)

Peter

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