Scientists
have established a new research “hub” dedicated to preparing for the
discovery of alien life, an event that would finally answer the age-old
question of whether we are alone in the universe.
While
it’s not clear that we will ever find life beyond Earth, or that aliens
exist at all, the consequences of finding extraterrestrials would have
immense and dizzying implications for humanity no matter what form it
might take. The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI)—along
with the broader quest to find even simple forms of life, like
bacteria—has become extremely sophisticated, raising the odds that we
might actually stumble across evidence of aliens in the coming decades,
assuming it is really out there.
John
Elliott, who serves as honorary research fellow in the School of
Computer Science of the University of St Andrews in Scotland, has been
thinking about the potential ramifications of an alien detection for
decades. During his long involvement with the SETI Permanent Committee, a
group of SETI experts established by the International Academy of
Astronautics (IAA), he has developed approaches for deciphering
extraterrestrial messages and gamed out how to disseminate information
about a confirmed extraterrestrial detection to a global audience.
Now, Elliott has founded the SETI Post-Detection Hub,
hosted by the University of St Andrews’ Centre for Exoplanet Science
and the Centre for Global Law and Governance, to bring together diverse
experts and anticipate the joys and tribulations of a post-detection
world.
“It
was increasingly evident that we needed a center (home) to coordinate
our efforts for an integrated provision to deal with such an event,”
Elliott told Motherboard in an email. “So, with the encouragement of
colleagues, I took the initiative and began developing the hub, to where
it is now.”
“This
has been with the assistance of a few colleagues in the UK SETI Network
(UKSRN), to formulate a draft strategic plan and supporting documents,”
he added, noting that the hub is now officially active.
The
establishment of the center is one of many signs that the existing
protocols addressing extraterrestrial detections are likely to come into
sharper focus in the near future. The SETI Permanent Committee adopted a basic game plan for this event in 1989, but many researchers think these guidelines haven’t kept pace with rapid advances in the media landscape and in the search for extraterrestrial life itself. Two teams of researchers have also recently debated the
wisdom of preparing for security risks to SETI researchers and
astronomical facilities, including terrorist attacks or espionage.
For these reasons, among others, experts have suggested that the protocols would
benefit from interdisciplinary input from people across all walks of
life, such as sociologists, lawyers, media specialists, and enthusiasts
who just happen to be interested in alien life.
“The
main issues are around bringing detail and agreement, as well as
possible legal implications, to anything past the initial phase of
detection, where the signal/discovery is confirmed as not human-made and
from a credible extraterrestrial source, which focuses on receiving a
signal,” Elliott explained. “All other foci in the current protocol are
on general behavior (transparency of discovery and information), as well
as initial indicators of the discovery’s significance.”
In
other words, researchers like Elliott would like to engage with
interdisciplinary experts to firm up some of the policy gaps in the
current protocols, including the coordination of transparent
information-sharing about alien detections among nations. Researchers at
the new hub also plan to grapple with a modern news environment that is
massively fueled by social media, rendering it particularly vulnerable
to conspiracy theorists and misinformation.
“My
initial thoughts, although this is an area for consultation and media
involvement, is to have trusted conduits that are recognized as
conveying the truths as we know it from scientific and objective
assessment: knowing that our policy is full transparency of what we know
and also do not know,” Elliott said.
“There
will be denial/conspiracy advocates, as is for many events in history,”
he added. “Cultural leaders may well have a significant impact,
regarding this.”
Of
course, these plans are highly contingent on the nature of a detection.
For instance, NASA’s Perseverance rover is currently searching for
signs of simple past life on Mars that may have existed more than three
billion years ago. Finding Martian fossils would be an enormous
breakthrough that would prove life on Earth is not unique.
However,
unearthing the remains of extinct microbes would be very different
from, let’s say, receiving a message sent by an intelligent
extraterrestrial civilization that exists, right now, somewhere else in
our galaxy. We may also be presented with highly ambiguous evidence of
alien life, such as the detection of a certain mix of gasses in the
atmosphere of a planet located hundreds of light years away that may
hint at biological activity, but can’t definitively prove it.
That’s
why scientists will need “to expand this to address all possible likely
scenarios,” Elliott said. “Microbes of an extinct species on Mars,
would be the local discovery of physical evidence, which is no
existential threat” such as a “past possible infection, so would be a
profound moment of discovery and confirmation we are not alone, but
mainly limited in protocol needs to evidence handling and information
dissemination, I believe.”
“An
extant intelligent civilization would pose many additional issues, such
as ongoing societal impact needs and signal analysis,” he added, noting
that SETI would have to discuss the risks presented by the alien
species, the question of whether to respond, and what to say if we did
transmit a reply.
The
new hub at the University of St Andrews will devise solutions to these
problems and help humans brace for the possibility that aliens, in some
form, may be detected in the future. For his part, Elliott is hopeful
about our chances of eventually finding extraterrestrial life—whether it
is extinct or extant, microbial or technological, or something
completely unimaginable.
“We
may even discover microbial life in our own solar system,” Elliott
said. “In approx. 2010, due to discovering many exoplanets, there
started to be a shift in acceptance for the possibility of
extraterrestrial life: in our own galaxy of 200 to 400 billion stars, we
are discovering planets around most (if not all) stars we look at—this
may indicate possible planet numbers are at least equal to this or as
much as one trillion.”
“Given
this, the possibility for other intelligent life being out there and us
discovering it (as out technology improves) has grown considerably,” he
concluded. “Of course, there still may be none (alien civilisations may
have already been and gone: the galaxy is 13.6 billion years old, our
planet is only 4.5 billion years old), but I am optimistic that there
is.”