Alternative climate COP in Colombia starting today
Brian Tokar
Brian Tokar
Institute for Social Ecology
P.O. Box 48
Plainfield, VT 05667
Patrick Bond
Tom, as usual, am appreciative of your optimism, and respectful that you're on the ground, there, reporting back. (I was only able to beam in on Friday, as I was asked to do an input on South Africa's failed and unjust energy transition, here.)
Two things of concern, though, are firstly, the official discourses, which I read from this conference planning statement below, featuring a purely top-down theory of change; an inability to mention - much less grapple with - the ICJ July 2025 Advisory Opinion (or for that matter any national polluter-pays mandate typically found in environmental management legislation and regulation); no acknowledgement of political-economic power relations that prevent decarbonisation; and zero respect for activism, so much that the term 'climate justice' is absent from the paperwork (not even in a tokenistic manner). The use of 'just transition' phraseology in the context of the Dutch role in poisoning JETP and CBAM, and privatising the air through utterly dysfunctional carbon market and offset schemes, is laughable.
What also worries me, is the purely Global North-Global South framing of the People's Declaration, without awareness or respect for all the local struggles underway in countries where fossil capitalism is utterly suffocating, wrecking local people's lives in many ways, at the same time there's subimperial connivance between the energy-military-logistics circuits of capital and imperialism, e.g. in the U.S.-Israeli wars on everyone everywhere. More on that another day.
Ciao,
Patrick
PS, Daniel Chavez from TNI and the University of the Basque Country wasn't impressed with the academic blahblah:
Here's a critic I fully trust, Daniel Chavez, who is in Santa
Marta now...
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7454551868208496640/
Daniel Chavez, Ikerbasque Research Professor at University of the
Basque Country - PI of the ERC AdG S-OIL Project - Coordinator of
the TNI Green Global Industrial Policy
17 hours ago
SOME QUICK REFLECTIONS ON THE SMART SUMMARY
I participated in the academic segment of the Santa Marta
conference, and, like many researchers, I will leave with a mix of
respect for the effort and frustration at the result.
The most glaring absence: the Global South as anything other than
a recipient of recommendations. Oil-dependent, low-income
countries appear at the margins, briefly acknowledged as requiring
"targeted support", yet their specific fiscal constraints,
institutional realities, and development rights are not discussed
in detail. National oil companies (NOCs), which hold huge reserves
and are the primary investment decision-makers in most producing
nations, receive no substantive treatment. For a document about
fossil fuel phase-down, that’s not a minor omission.
The action repertoire is essentially failed market economics. The
SMART summary explicitly names political capture and incumbent
interests as the central obstacles to the transition. It then
recommends carbon pricing as though those same forces would simply
stand aside. The tension is unresolved because the framework
cannot resolve it; the political economy of why these instruments
have repeatedly been diluted or captured is ignored.
The document proposes revenue recycling from carbon taxes as the
remedy for the regressive social impacts of subsidy removal. Yet
elsewhere, it explicitly acknowledges that countries with
structural dependence on fossil fuels require targeted support to
build alternative economic capacities. The tension between the
proposed instrument and the acknowledged structural condition
remains unresolved: revenue recycling presupposes state capacity
to collect, ring-fence, and redistribute at scale, and that
assumption is weakest precisely where fossil fuel dependence is
deepest. The document never confronts this contradiction.
There are stronger elements. The ISDS section engages seriously
with how investment protection agreements constrain sovereign
climate policy, and the explicit rejection of CCS and gas as
bridge fuels signals a more critical register. But these read as
partial corrections within a technocratic frame, not as evidence
of a different framework.
The transition this document describes leaves crucial questions –
the role of states, public ownership, democratic control of energy
systems, the development rights of late-industrialising oil
producers - outside the frame. But this is a process and Santa
Marta is a fundamental step in the right direction.
***
First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels
28–29 April 2026 | Santa Marta, Colombia
Briefing Note for Spokespeople of each Chapter: High Level Segment — Plenary and Thematic Sessions
This document is intended to be a practical reference for stakeholder participants in the plenary and thematic breakout sessions.
1. Agenda Overview
I. Plenary Day 1 (28 April)
• During the Plenary on Day 1 (28 April), one spokesperson per chapter is invited to report on the conclusions of their chapter.
• The spokesperson has been selected previously.
• Each chapter’s spokesperson has a scheduled intervention of maximum two minutes.
• The spokesperson is asked to speak from the floor.
• The interventions of chapter spokespeople are interchanged by other speakers, such as a ministers, country representatives and other high level speakers.
Note: The speakers list will be communicated to each spokesperson the morning of the 28th April.
II. Breakout Sessions (28 and 29 April)
Thematic Sessions — Block A (parallel):
- Energy Access (Pillar 2)
- Economic and Labour Reconversion (Pillar 1)
- Collective Action to Close Governance Gaps (Pillar 3)
- Contributing to Close Gaps in Financial & Investment Systems (Pillar 3) Thematic Sessions — Block B (parallel)):
- Fuel Switching, Energy Security & Sovereignty (Pillar 2)
- Fiscal Dependence (Pillar 1)
- Planned Phase-down and Closure of Fossil Fuel Extraction (Pillar 2)
- Financial Incentives & Subsidy Reform (Pillar 2)
III. Session Format and Methodology
The thematic sessions are designed to move this group of countries and stakeholders from dialogue to coordinated action. Confirmed countries represent approximately one third of global fossil fuel consumption and one fifth of global production. Sessions draw on more than 600 written submissions, over 20 preparatory online dialogues, and an in-person retreat with government delegations.
Format
• Each breakout session lasts approximately 1.5 hours and includes 20–25 participants: government delegations, stakeholder spokespeople, international organizations, and subnational government representatives.
• Sessions are closed, informal, and debate-oriented, conducted under Chatham House Rules.
• Each chapter has two tickets to join one predesignated thematic session per round: one has a speaking slot, the other person observes. Each session is structured around two guiding questions, each addressed within a 45-minute block.
• Spokespeople from the chapters will be given the floor at the end of each question round.
• Each spokesperson will have a (maximum) 3 minutes intervention to share their chapter’s perspective.
• Participants rotate between sessions after each 1.5-hour block to ensure exposure to different thematic discussions.
• Assignment of the chapters to the sessions is carried out by the organizing team, ensuring balanced representation across all chapters.
Expected Outcomes
• Identification of concrete mechanisms for collective action to implement enabling pathways, building on proven national solutions.
• Mobilisation of collective power to deliver impact at scale, ensuring a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel dependence.
• The emphasis is on advancing coordinated political action — not reaffirming existing agreements, but prioritising concrete operational mechanisms that can begin implementation in the short term.
3. Thematic Session Briefings
Each session briefing includes: a brief context summary, enabling pathways identified from stakeholder contributions (with barriers, solutions, and enablers), and the guiding questions that will structure the discussion. Sessions are listed in agenda order.
Note: The thematic content presented in each session briefing has been developed on the basis of synthesised written contributions and the outcomes of the preparatory thematic dialogues. It does not reflect the official positions of the Government of Colombia or the Government of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The enabling pathways, guiding questions, and contextual elements set out in this document are intended solely as orientating lines for the conversation and as prompts to facilitate discussion. They should not be construed as negotiated positions, agreed conclusions, or predetermined outcomes. Readers wishing to consult the underlying source documents, including the full range of proposals submitted by participating sectors, are invited to refer to: https://transitionawayconference.com/contributions
3.1 Energy Access
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
Energy access remains central to a just transition. Despite progress, hundreds of millions of people lack reliable access to clean, affordable energy. Expanding access requires not just infrastructure, but institutional capacity, community ownership, financing, and regulatory frameworks that enable decentralised and distributed approaches. The transition creates an opportunity to leapfrog fossil-fuel- dependent models and build inclusive, resilient energy systems.
2. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "From your experience in government, what has made it possible in practice to expand access to clean and affordable energy — and what strategies or actions have helped overcome the toughest barriers?"
Question 2. "Building on these experiences, what are the most impactful actions this coalition could take together to accelerate access to clean and affordable energy, and where would collective efforts make the greatest difference in overcoming persistent barriers? For example: shared regulatory models for distributed generation and mini-grids, South-South and North-South technical assistance and capacity-building, joint technology transfer frameworks, or direct-access financing for community and women-led organisations?"
3. Enabling pathways
Pathway 1: From energy poverty to inclusive, decentralised, and people-centred access
Barrier. Energy access deficits persist where centralised and fossil-dependent systems have failed to reach rural, remote, low-income, and marginalised communities, and where affordability constraints, weak local infrastructure, and limited technical capacity prevent clean alternatives from being adopted and maintained.
Solutions. Distributed renewable systems; off-grid and mini-grid deployment; affordability incentives for clean energy; community-owned and community-governed energy systems; clean cooking and productive- use applications; targeted technical training, entrepreneurship, and technology access programmes especially for women and rural communities; and integrated approaches connecting energy access to health, education, water, and local economic opportunity.
Enablers. Regulatory frameworks for distributed generation and mini-grids; public support for grid extension and modernisation where needed; technical and vocational training adapted to local conditions; community co-design processes and free, prior, and informed consent frameworks; social policies to address affordability and energy poverty; and governance arrangements that strengthen local ownership, participation, and fair distribution of benefits.
Pathway 2: Building an international enabling environment for community-level implementation
Barrier. Even where decentralised renewable technologies are increasingly competitive, countries face shared constraints that limit deployment at community and territorial scale: weak or absent regulatory frameworks for distributed generation and mini-grids, limited local technical capacity, insufficient financing instruments adapted to community-based solutions, and gaps in technology transfer and international cooperation.
Solutions. Shared regulatory models and technical standards for distributed generation and mini-grids; coordinated technical assistance and capacity-building programmes adapted to territorial conditions; joint technology transfer and procurement frameworks; direct-access financing windows for Indigenous, women- led, and community organisations; green microcredit and community finance instruments for households and SMEs; South-South, North-South, and triangular cooperation platforms on decentralised renewable deployment; and shared monitoring frameworks tracking access at community and household level.
Enablers. Multilateral and bilateral cooperation platforms for technology transfer, policy, and regulatory support around community-level implementation; shared legislative and regulatory models for distributed generation and energy communities; technical assistance programmes for local capacity development, including gender-targeted training; South-South and North-South knowledge exchange and cooperation mechanisms; direct-access modalities within multilateral and regional financing instruments; and frameworks that ensure community co-design, free, prior, and informed consent, and equitable benefit- sharing in renewable deployment.
3.2 Economic and Labour Reconversion
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
Economic and labour transition is one of the key enabling conditions for moving beyond fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and durable way. In many countries, fossil fuel dependence is embedded not only in energy systems, but in employment structures, local value chains, public revenues, infrastructure, and regional development patterns. The challenge is to ensure that workers, communities, and territories have credible pathways toward new forms of economic activity, decent work, and long-term resilience.
2. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "From your national or subnational experience, what has worked in practice to support economic diversification and labour transition in fossil-fuel-dependent sectors and regions, and what conditions made progress possible?"
Question 2. "What measures should this group coordinate and cooperate on together to help countries advance and sustain these reforms in practice, and where would collective action make the greatest difference compared to acting individually?"
3. Enabling pathways
Pathway 1: From fossil-fuel dependence to territorial just transition and workforce development
Barrier. Fossil-fuel-dependent regions face risks of job loss, territorial decline, and social dislocation in the absence of coordinated transition frameworks. Gaps in worker training, social protection, institutional capacity, and structured social dialogue make it harder to manage change in a fair and anticipatory way. These challenges are often compounded by fragmented governance, weak coordination between employment, education, and territorial development systems, and the absence of binding labour and social requirements in closure, reconversion, and investment processes.
Solutions. Territorial just transition plans co-designed with workers, communities, governments, and the private sector; labour reconversion programmes and green-skills vocational training; and institutionalised social dialogue mechanisms at national and subnational levels. This can be complemented by structured systems for worker characterisation, certification of competencies, labour intermediation and reallocation, integration with public employment services, and territorial programmes that link reconversion with productive diversification, reindustrialisation, mine-closure planning, environmental restoration, and the development of new sectors.
Enablers. Dedicated just transition funds and international financial support; ILO-aligned social protection standards and multilateral technical assistance; peer-learning platforms to share national and territorial transition experiences; multi-level governance arrangements that institutionalise social dialogue; regulatory frameworks that require labour guarantees and social and environmental conditionalities in projects and investments; integrated territorial planning systems; stronger coordination between ministries and training institutions; and international cooperation to support diversification, reconversion, and protection of decent work.
Pathway 2: From fragmented alternatives to sustained economic diversification and new value chains
Barrier. The benefits of the energy transition remain unevenly distributed. Many countries continue to be concentrated in low-value-added activities while facing fiscal constraints, weak productive capacity, and limited access to finance, technology, and infrastructure. Public support and investment frameworks often continue to favour incumbent extractive models, while new transition sectors — especially around critical minerals — risk reproducing old patterns of extractive dependence, corporate concentration, and territorial exclusion rather than enabling diversification and local value creation.
Solutions. Reorient development finance, public investment, subsidies, and incentives away from fossil- fuel expansion toward decentralised, community-led energy systems, territorial diversification, and productive alternatives; develop sustainable clean-energy value chains including bioeconomy, clean manufacturing, circular economy, and critically governed minerals sectors with local value addition; support regional industrial cooperation to build shared productive capacities; and establish anti-extractivist safeguards together with locally led diversification strategies that prioritise decent work, democratic governance, territorial rights, and long-term public revenues.
Enablers. Coordinated international investment and technology transfer; direct, accessible, and non-debt- creating finance for local and territorial actors; improved market access arrangements and trade frameworks aligned with just transition objectives; stronger multilateral governance for critical minerals and related supply chains; and legal, policy, and planning frameworks that prioritise community participation, local benefit-sharing, and the redirection of public support toward territorially grounded alternatives.
Pathway 3: From structural external constraints to an enabling international environment
Barrier. Even where political will exists, national and subnational transition efforts operate within an international environment that often reinforces fossil dependence and constrains diversification. High debt burdens, high costs of capital, loan-based climate finance, limited access to concessional and non-debt- creating finance, trade asymmetries, technology gaps, fragmented standards, and investment rules that privilege incumbent extractive sectors all reduce countries' ability to finance transformation, create new industries, and support affected workers and territories.
Solutions. Coordinated coalition action to reduce the cost of capital and expand access to concessional, non-debt-creating finance; debt relief and restructuring linked to productive and labour transition; industrial and technological cooperation to build sustainable value chains across countries; shared planning, standards, and cooperative arrangements for emerging sectors; coordinated support for territorial diversification funds and workforce initiatives; technology transfer and capacity building platforms, including South-South ones; and joint advocacy to reform international financial, trade, and investment conditions that hinder structural transformation.
Enablers. Pooled and targeted transition finance; MDB and IFI reform; shared technical assistance and training platforms; North-South and South-South cooperation on technology, industrial policy, and market access; regulatory and policy coordination to align investment, trade, and labour-transition objectives; and coalition-backed cooperation frameworks connecting national roadmaps with regional and international implementation.
3.3 Session I: Collective action to close governance gaps
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
A key prerequisite for transitioning away from fossil fuels is strong international cooperation and effective governance frameworks. In the context of current geopolitical dynamics and evolving multilateral challenges, this session will focus on identifying actionable pathways to enhance the effectiveness of existing institutions and on exploring complementary approaches to address persistent governance and implementation gaps, in order to advance the delivery of our agreed commitments and goals.
2. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "How far can existing international frameworks realistically take us in accelerating implementation of the transition, and what is needed and feasible in terms of complementary frameworks or instruments to close existing gaps?"
Question 2. "Following Santa Marta, what concrete and possible steps can this group take together to advance coordinated action to enhance existing efforts and develop complementary frameworks or instruments?"
3. Enabling pathways
Pathway 1: Supporting the continued evolution and effectiveness of the UNFCCC
Barrier. While the UNFCCC has provided an essential framework for global climate action, consensus- based decision-making, fragmented workstreams, limited meaningful participation of vulnerable populations, and weak linkages to operational delivery mechanisms can constrain responsiveness to the scale, equity, and urgency of the transition.
Solutions. Enhance the effectiveness of the UNFCCC by building on its achievements while addressing operational limitations, with a focus on improving implementation, coordination, and responsiveness to emerging transition challenges. This includes the establishment of implementation-focused workstreams, more flexible dialogue and decision-making formats, and stronger linkages between UNFCCC processes and implementation platforms.
Enablers. Establishment of implementation-focused workstreams linked to key outcomes such as Global Stocktake follow-up; more flexible dialogue and decision-making formats to enhance consensus-based negotiations; strengthening of linkages between UNFCCC processes and implementation platforms covering national plans, finance mechanisms, and sectoral initiatives; improved coordination across thematic areas including mitigation, finance, adaptation, and just transition; and use of high-level political processes to maintain momentum and align priorities.
Pathway 2: Addressing governance gaps on fossil fuel production and use
Barrier. The current international framework does not adequately address fossil fuel production and consumption, including petrochemicals and other end-use sectors, thereby limiting the ability to coordinate a managed and equitable transition — particularly on the supply side.
Solutions. Develop a dedicated international instrument or equivalent framework to support a managed phase-out; establish global transparency mechanisms to track production, infrastructure, and associated emissions; advance coordinated diplomatic processes to build convergence on demand-side and supply- side measures; and strengthen high-level political processes to maintain momentum between formal UNFCCC cycles.
Enablers. Advance a technical and political dialogue on a dedicated international instrument among core proponents and a broader group of countries, including on its potential contribution to advancing the transition away from fossil fuels; deliver a plastics treaty that addresses petrochemicals and instruments covering other end-use sectors; enhance and align existing data systems and reporting frameworks to support comprehensive, open-access tracking of fossil fuel production, reserves, infrastructure, and associated emissions; and strengthen cooperation for technology transfer.
3.4 Session II: Contributing to closing gaps in financial and investment systems
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
Structural barriers within international legal and investment frameworks are identified as key factors limiting the implementation of the transition away from fossil fuels. These challenges reflect broader misalignments between financial, legal, and climate systems that hinder progress at the required scale and speed. In this context, the objective of this session is to identify the role that this group of countries and stakeholders can collectively play in addressing these barriers, building on and strengthening existing efforts, and advancing practical solutions that support implementation.
2. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "What type of international investment architecture and regulatory frameworks are needed to enable the transition, and what actions can this group take to advance alignment?"
Question 2. "Which actions can we mobilise to shape innovative financial mechanisms that increase the adequate financial flows needed to implement the transition? Who are the key actors that need to be involved, and how do we bring them to the table and influence them?"
3. Enabling pathways
Finance Pathway 1: Aligning the international financial architecture with transition needs
Barrier. The current financial architecture is not designed to support the transition at scale. Finance remains fragmented, difficult to access, and insufficiently aligned with long-term structural transformation, with limited effectiveness of multilateral development bank instruments.
Solutions. Reform multilateral development banks to expand concessional finance and reduce the cost of capital; improve accessibility and alignment of existing climate finance instruments; and reorient public finance systems toward the transition.
Enablers. Coordinated international efforts to drive MDB reform; clear allocation criteria and improved transparency of financial flows; simplified access procedures and streamlined funding mechanisms; establishment of dedicated transition finance mechanisms and funds; and introduction of global taxes on fossil fuels, including through the UN tax convention.
Finance Pathway 2: Unlocking and scaling finance by addressing cost and risk constraints
Barrier. High costs of capital, perceived risks, and limited concessional finance constrain investment —
particularly in developing economies — while private capital remains under-mobilised.
Solutions. Expand concessional and grant-based finance; scale blended finance, guarantees, and risk- sharing instruments; and develop standardised financial instruments and scalable investment models that can be replicated across country contexts.
Enablers. Standardised financial instruments and scalable investment models; improved risk assessment frameworks and regulatory alignment; stronger coordination between public and private actors; deployment of instruments to reduce the cost of capital for transition investments; and unlocking of private capital through risk reduction and regulatory reform.
Finance Pathway 3: Creating fiscal space and aligning finance with country-led transitions
Barrier. Debt burdens and fiscal constraints limit countries' ability to invest in the transition, while finance remains disconnected from national strategies and long-term transformation needs.
Solutions. Advance debt relief, restructuring, and debt-for-transition mechanisms; align finance with national transition plans and country platforms; support long-term investment frameworks for economic diversification and just transition; and reorient public finance and fiscal systems toward the transition.
Enablers. Development of credible national transition plans and investment pipelines; strengthening institutional and technical capacity; enhanced coordination across governments, financial institutions, and stakeholders; carbon pricing and taxation systems; and establishment of sovereign transition funds.
Investment & Legal Frameworks Pathway 1: Aligning international investment frameworks with climate objectives
Barrier. Existing international investment agreements, including ISDS mechanisms, can constrain governments' ability to implement transition policies. The risk of litigation and compensation claims creates a chilling effect, while current frameworks are often misaligned with climate goals and do not adequately recognise the legitimacy of fossil fuel phase-out measures.
Solutions. Review and reform international investment agreements to better align with climate objectives; incorporate safeguards that preserve policy space for transition measures; integrate climate action and just transition considerations into legal frameworks; and clarify the legitimacy of transition-related policies within investment regimes.
Enablers. Development of shared international principles or guidance on climate-aligned investment governance; coordination among countries to advance reforms in bilateral and multilateral agreements; legal and technical support to assess treaty risks and reform options; greater transparency and awareness of ISDS risks and implications; and alliances across climate, trade, finance, and investment forums.
Investment & Legal Frameworks Pathway 2: Managing legal risks and strengthening coordinated approaches
Barrier. Countries continue to face immediate exposure to ISDS risks, limited legal and institutional capacity to manage disputes, and a lack of coordinated approaches to address these challenges — weakening confidence and slowing the adoption of ambitious transition policies.
Solutions. Creation of an ISDS-free alliance for coordinated withdrawal and renegotiation pathways; WTO- related reforms and aligned trade rules; coalition advocacy on MDB reform; development of coordinated approaches among countries to manage ISDS-related risks; and facilitation of exchange of experiences and best practices in managing legal risks.
Enablers. Platforms for dialogue and coordination among countries on legal strategies; capacity-building and technical assistance on ISDS and transition policy design; knowledge-sharing mechanisms to disseminate lessons learned and legal approaches; and integration of ISDS considerations into broader international cooperation and transition planning processes.
3.5 Fuel Switching, Energy Security and Sovereignty
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
Shifting away from fossil fuels in power, heat, transport, and industry is the core physical challenge of the transition. Fuel switching must be pursued while maintaining affordability, reliability, and public support — requiring combinations of policy, investment, and safeguards. Energy security and sovereignty concerns are central to the politics of transition in many countries, and must be addressed directly.
2. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "From your national or subnational experience, which combinations of policies, investments, and safeguards have proved most effective in making fuel switching work in practice while maintaining affordability, reliability, and public support?"
Question 2. "What measures should this group coordinate and advance together to accelerate fuel switching across sectors, and where would collective action make the greatest difference compared to acting individually?"
3. Enabling pathways
Pathway 1: From fossil lock-in to reliable and equitable system transformation
Barrier. Fuel switching is often slowed by fossil lock-in in power, transport, buildings, and industry, together with weak grids and storage, insufficient public infrastructure, uneven access to clean technologies, and the risk that affordability and reliability concerns undermine public support.
Solutions. Accelerated renewable deployment; grid modernisation and storage; energy efficiency; public and rail transport; electrification in buildings and industry; decentralised and community-based energy systems; and social protection measures to address energy poverty and support equitable access.
Enablers. Clear targets and planning frameworks; public investment and concessional finance; regulatory support for electrification and distributed systems; stronger institutional capacity to coordinate infrastructure and demand transformation; and safeguards that maintain affordability, reliability, and social legitimacy.
Pathway 2: From fragmented implementation to coordinated cooperation and reduced risk
Barrier. Fuel switching is often constrained by high capital costs, fragmented standards, weak infrastructure coordination, dependence on imported technologies and inputs, and insufficient international cooperation to reduce risks and accelerate implementation.
Solutions. Concessional and blended finance; grid interconnections and cross-border planning; technology transfer; common technical and regulatory frameworks; joint research and development; clean technology partnerships; investment and trade arrangements that lower costs and reduce dependencies; and safeguards for critical minerals and other transition inputs.
Enablers. Coordinated international cooperation platforms; predictable support for infrastructure and deployment; common technical and regulatory frameworks; stronger regional and cross-border planning; and investment, trade, and industrial arrangements that lower costs and reduce new dependencies.
3.6 Fiscal Dependence
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
For many countries, public revenues, social spending, and debt sustainability are tightly linked to fossil fuel extraction and exports. Reducing this fiscal dependence is one of the most politically difficult dimensions of the transition. Without credible strategies for diversifying revenues and creating fiscal space, transition commitments remain fragile.
2. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "From your experience, what policy approaches have helped reduce dependence on fossil fuel revenues, and what role have climate and energy ministries played in enabling and coordinating these efforts across sectors and with international partners?"
Question 2. "What coordinated actions should this group advance together to expand fiscal space for the transition, and what initiatives can be implemented to engage those actors that have more direct influence over these decisions?"
3. Enabling pathways
Pathway 1: From fiscal lock-in to sovereign transition capacity
Barrier. Fossil revenue dependence and external debt can jointly compress fiscal space, creating a double lock-in in which public budgets remain tied to volatile hydrocarbon income while debt service absorbs resources needed for transition, social protection, and productive investment. In some contexts, this is compounded by narrow tax bases, lack of instruments to tax high concentration of wealth, and limited alternative sources of public revenue.
Solutions. Debt-for-transition swaps; debt restructuring and debt relief linked to transition investment; sovereign transition funds; progressive tax reform to broaden and diversify the tax base; taxation of high-net- worth individuals and other forms of concentrated wealth; financial transaction taxes; direct-access windows for territorial and community organisations, including Indigenous Peoples; and fiscal strategies that channel public resources toward social protection, clean infrastructure, locally-led solutions, and productive diversification.
Enablers. Stronger public financial management; social compensation mechanisms; territorial information systems; SEEA environmental accounting in fiscal planning; transition planning frameworks linking fiscal reform to long-term investment priorities; and improved coordination between fiscal, development, and transition institutions so that revenue reform supports economic transformation rather than short-term adjustment alone.
Pathway 2: From fossil fuel-dependent revenues and under-taxed rents to transformative fiscal policies
Barrier. In countries dependent on fossil fuel revenues, fossil-sector rents, extraordinary profits, and related wealth and profit flows remain under-taxed, while loopholes, tax abuse, and weak international coordination allow revenue leakages that erode public resources. This can limit states' ability to discourage expansion and reduce the resources available for industrial policy, economic diversification, and structural transformation.
Solutions. Coordinated tax reform on fossil rents; taxation of extraordinary profits; reform of royalties and extraction taxes; removal of fossil tax incentives; anti-evasion and anti-avoidance measures; closure of loopholes that enable tax abuse; progressive taxation of wider wealth and profit flows; and use of these revenues to support industrial policy, productive transformation, social investment, and diversification. At the international level: stronger multilateral tax cooperation, coordinated approaches to taxing multinational
profits and wealth, and support for the ongoing negotiations on a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.
Enablers. National fossil rent inventories; transparency over fossil-related revenues, incentives, and ownership structures; multilateral tax cooperation; exchange of tax information; common reporting standards; anti-abuse rules; capacity building for tax administrations; and coalition-based coordination to connect domestic tax reform with broader international efforts to curb leakages, capture under-taxed rents, and mobilise resources for sovereign and transformative development.
Pathway 3: From debt constraint to an enabling international financial architecture
Barrier. IFI conditionality aligned with extractive models, high cost of capital in many developing economies, ineffective MDB instruments, and loan-based climate finance that deepens indebtedness can all constrain transition investment. In some contexts these challenges are compounded by misaligned risk perceptions, fragmented financing windows, and the absence of timely, predictable approaches to sovereign debt.
Solutions. IFI and MDB governance reform; expansion of concessional and non-debt-creating finance; blended finance and de-risking instruments; Basel-related prudential reforms; fossil fuel phase-out by bilateral DFIs; debt relief, restructuring, and debt-for-transition mechanisms; dedicated transition finance mechanisms; stronger country platforms that align finance with national transition plans; and movement toward a more multilateral and rules-based approach to sovereign debt.
Enablers. Existing coalitions as institutional anchors, including PPCA, CTA, BOGA, and JETPs; joint advocacy platforms; coordinated positions in IFI and MDB governance boards; simplified access procedures and streamlined funding mechanisms; stronger institutional and technical capacity to develop credible national transition plans and investment pipelines; improved coordination across governments, financial institutions, and stakeholders; and international cooperation frameworks that help align financial reform, debt treatment, and development priorities with the implementation needs of the transition.
3.7 Planned Phase-down and Closure of Fossil Fuel Extraction
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
Moving beyond fossil fuels requires not only expanding clean energy, but actively managing the decline of fossil fuel extraction. This involves moratoria on new licences, closure planning, asset management, supply- side regulation, and fiscal tools — while ensuring social legitimacy and protecting communities, workers, and territories most affected. International coordination can reinforce and accelerate what individual countries do unilaterally.
2. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "What measures have coalition members already deployed or designed to manage the reduction of fossil fuel extraction — including moratoria on new licences, asset mapping, closure plans, supply-side regulation, fiscal or pricing tools, and diversification-linked phase-down instruments — and what barriers proved hardest to overcome?"
Question 2. "What concrete forms of coordinated action should this coalition advance to support a planned, fair, and politically viable phase-down of fossil fuel extraction — including common political signals, shared planning tools, international support mechanisms, and measures to address regulatory, fiscal, financial, and legitimacy barriers?"
3. Enabling pathways
Pathway 1: From fossil lock-in to managed decline aligned with demand transformation
Barrier. Fossil fuel decline is often slowed by weak planning, persistent expansion incentives, long-lived infrastructure, and limited alignment between supply-side decisions and the pace of demand transformation, electrification, and clean infrastructure deployment.
Solutions. Moratoria on new licences; fossil-fuel-free zones; asset mapping and closure plans; monitoring of environmental and financial liabilities; tighter alignment between extraction decisions and progress in demand reduction, electrification, and clean infrastructure; and accompanying measures such as fossil subsidy reform, carbon pricing, targeted incentives, and removal of tax incentives that continue to favour expansion.
Enablers. Clear policy signals; integrated planning frameworks; robust data and disclosure systems; stronger regulatory capacity; and transition finance and fiscal tools that support orderly closure while reducing dependence on fossil expansion.
Pathway 2: From fragmented national efforts to coordinated international conditions for phase-down
Barrier. Countries seeking to phase down extraction often face higher political and economic risks when acting alone, including competitiveness concerns, financing constraints, uneven transition costs, legal exposure, and weak international coordination.
Solutions. Common political signals; treaty-based or other cooperation frameworks; harmonised standards; shared transparency and data systems; coordinated transition finance; concessional and non- debt-creating support; diversification-linked assistance; and international cooperation mechanisms that reduce isolation and help countries move on fairer terms.
Enablers. Stronger international governance; coordinated positions in relevant forums; implementation platforms across countries and institutions; predictable support mechanisms for higher-cost transitions; and cooperation frameworks that align phase-down with development, diversification, and just transition objectives.
Pathway 3: From fossil power and weak legitimacy to socially grounded phase-down
Barrier. Extraction often persists not only because of revenues and infrastructure, but also because of power asymmetries, weak participation, low public trust, and narratives that portray fossil production as inevitable or necessary for development.
Solutions. Stronger public planning institutions; transparent regulation; community participation in decision-making; place-based and community-led transition frameworks; public learning and communication strategies; labour and social protection measures; and safeguards to prevent harm, new sacrifice zones, and green extractivism.
Enablers. Planning capacity; institutionalised participation and social dialogue; rights-based and territorially grounded safeguards; access to information; community monitoring and accountability mechanisms; and narrative shifts that frame managed decline as part of a fairer and more resilient development pathway.
3.8 Financial Incentives and Subsidy Reform
1. Summary of the topic and objective of the session
Fossil fuel subsidies and misaligned financial incentives distort investment decisions, undermine transition policy, and represent a significant fiscal cost. Domestic reform is politically difficult but has been achieved in a number of countries. International coordination can reduce competitive pressures, support countries facing fiscal trade-offs, and help redirect finance toward the transition.
3. Guiding questions for the session
Question 1. "From your national or subnational experiences with subsidy reform, carbon pricing, or the reorientation of financial flows, what has made reforms possible and socially viable in practice — and what strategies or actions have you used to overcome the toughest barriers and trade-offs?"
Question 2. "Building on these experiences, what are the most impactful actions this group could coordinate to help countries advance and sustain these reforms in practice, and where would acting collectively make the greatest difference compared to acting individually?"
3. Enabling pathways
Pathway 1: From fossil-fuel support to equitable and credible domestic reform
Barrier. Fossil-fuel subsidies and other financial incentives are deeply embedded in broader systems of affordability management, industrial support, and political stabilisation. Their removal can trigger regressive impacts, inflationary pressures, resistance from affected sectors, and loss of public trust — especially where clean alternatives remain inaccessible or underdeveloped.
Solutions. Comprehensive subsidy inventories and disclosure frameworks; predictable and differentiated phase-out timelines; replacement of generalised fossil-fuel subsidies with targeted transfers and social protection for vulnerable households; reinvestment of reform savings into renewable energy, energy access, public transport, energy efficiency, and other visible public goods; and policy packages combining subsidy reform with complementary demand-side measures and support for clean alternatives.
Enablers. National transparency frameworks for fossil-fuel support; social registries and compensatory delivery mechanisms; strong public communication and narrative-building; integrated planning linking subsidy reform to affordability, infrastructure, and clean-energy access; monitoring systems tracking both savings and redistribution; and participatory mechanisms allowing workers, communities, and affected groups to shape reform design and sequencing.
Pathway 2: From fragmented incentives to an enabling international environment
Barrier. Even where domestic willingness exists, governments often operate in an environment that still favours fossil fuels: high costs of capital for clean alternatives, public and private finance locked into long- lived fossil infrastructure, competitiveness concerns, inconsistent subsidy definitions and reporting across jurisdictions, and international financial arrangements that make reform politically and economically harder to sustain.
Solutions. Shared approaches to defining and reporting fossil-fuel subsidies; peer review and technical cooperation mechanisms; coordinated efforts to phase out public support for fossil infrastructure; stronger climate-aligned carbon pricing and fiscal instruments; concessional and non-debt-creating finance to scale alternatives; multilateral development bank reform to stop reinforcing fossil lock-in; and cooperative approaches supporting reinvestment in clean energy and socially just transition measures.
Enablers. Transparency and reporting platforms backed by participating countries; technical assistance and shared legislative or regulatory models; stronger alignment across development banks, export credit agencies, and public finance institutions; coordinated positions on fiscal and financial reforms in relevant
Gobierno de
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Government of the Netherlands
Transitionin&
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Colombia - The Netherlands
international forums; de-risking and concessional financing windows for clean alternatives; and cooperation mechanisms that help members demonstrate reform is compatible with equity, energy security, and development priorities.
Hey Brian;
Here's the CSO declaration. https://fossilfreerising.org/declaration I watched the drafting (from a distance), which involved a great deal of consultation with orgs from around the world, and it was amazing. DCJ had input, of course, but read this instead of that input.
Mark Hersgaard has a good piece in the Nation today that gives more of the geopolitical context. https://www.thenation.com/article/environment/transitioning-away-fossil-fuels-conference-colombia/
And, tomorrow, the high level meeting begins. It's looking good, but keep your fingers crossed.
There is too much to say.
Tom A
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"It is some hardship to be born into the world and to find all nature's gifts previously engrossed."
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This is the organizing listserv for SYSTEM CHANGE NOT CLIMATE CHANGE where members post announcements as well as questions and comments related to building a revolutionary movement for ecosocialist transformation.
SCNCC Online
Website: systemchangenotclimatechange.org
YouTube: bit.ly/systemchangeonyoutube
Facebook: facebook.com/SystemChangeNotClimateChange
Twitter: @eco_socialism
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