Overfitting in temporal model

[Dan]

I fitted a piecewise regression model for species counts, but for three species the model results are not accurate. Any ideas to fix this?

fit <- lapply(seq_along(X), function(x)

       inla(Y ~ 1 + year000 + y2006 + y2011 + f(year1, model = "ar1"), 

       data = data.frame(Y = X[[x]]$Count, year1 = 1:15,

                         year000 = (year-2003)*(year<2006),

                         y2006 = (year-2006)*(year>=2006)*(2011>year),

                         y2011 = (year-2011)*(year>=2011)), 

       family = "poisson", control.family = list(link = "log"), 

       control.compute = list(dic = TRUE,cpo = TRUE, po = TRUE)))

Thanks in advance

[Elias T. Krainski]

Maybe 'ar1' is not smoothing enough. How about 'rw2'? Bwt, are you also trying a kind of segmented regression with these three fixed effects?

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[Udani Wijewardhana]

Hi Elisa,

Yes, this is a segmented regression model. 

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From: Elias T. Krainski <eliask...@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 9, 2021 5:12:46 AM
To: Dan <udaniwij...@gmail.com>
Cc: R-inla discussion group <r-inla-disc...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [r-inla] Overfitting in temporal model