Having issues understanding the "seasonal" model

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Sebastian Rodriguez

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May 27, 2022, 2:39:51 PM5/27/22
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Hello all,

I am having some issues understanding what the "seasonal" model is doing.

I have panel data with timeseries from over 800 locations. I want to add a seasonal structure to my data, as my data is the monthly incidence rate of a disease. I am using 
f(time, model = "seasonal", season.length = 12).

Is this term adding a seasonal structure to my response or to my error term?

Thanks in advance and sorry if my question is too general.

Best,
Sebastian

Helpdesk

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May 29, 2022, 11:43:04 AM5/29/22
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with

y ~ 1 + x + f()

then with Gaussian likelihood, then ``1 + x + f()'' is the linear
predictor, and the likelihood account for the observational noise.

if you consider ``1 + x'' as the linear predictor, then -f(), plus the
iid for the Gaussian likelihood, will be the new likelihood, and -f()
goes into the observational `noise''.
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Fredrik L. Aanes

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Jun 5, 2022, 4:50:35 PM6/5/22
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Is this equivalent to a random walk of order 1 or 2 with constraints X(1) = X(12), X(2) = X(11), X(3)= X(10), X(4) = X(9), X(5) = X(8), X(6) = X(7)? 

Fredrik L. Aanes

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Jun 5, 2022, 4:55:23 PM6/5/22
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Aah. That would create a symmetric pattern! Cyclic perhaps? 
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