approximate variance of data-level prediction

[Natoya j]

Hi,

I would like to approximate the variance of my predictions for the next year (e.g., I have data for 2010-2020 and I predicted for 2021).

I am planning to add the variances from the linear predictor and the likelihood (estimated posterior observation variance).

My question is, how do I get the variance from the linear predictor? The output from the linear predictor is: mean, sd, 0.025quant ,   0.5quant ,   0.975quant,    mode.

Do I simply take the square of sd or is there another way the variance is computed or extracted?

Thank you,

Natoya

[Helpdesk (Haavard Rue)]

the easy way would be to include year 2021 in the model, but with data
equal to NA

In this way you'll get predictions.

see vignette  

Short tutorials - PDF source R code

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