Interpretation of strange posterior standard deviations

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Kyle Manning

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Aug 11, 2022, 7:04:52 PM8/11/22
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Hello, 

I've been modeling a variable with a lognormal distribution by using

family="lognormal". 


When I do this, I end up with a model where the posterior standard deviations for each data point, a.k.a.

model$summary.fitted.values$sd

Are all incredibly small, for example
  1. 0.000421568997572139
  2. 0.000421568997572139
  3. 0.000746665312948463
  4. 0.000746665312948463
I thought doing exp(model$summary.fitted.values$sd) would give the correct values, but then the values are all just above 1, such as 

  1. 1.00042165787027
  2. 1.00042165787027
  3. 1.00074694413689
  4. 1.00074694413689

I've tried many different priors but I always see the above effect with standard deviations.

Am I doing something incorrect? I would expect the standard deviations for my data to be much bigger, and certainly not all similar. If it matters, I am using a model with 2 fixed effects and ~8 random effects.

Thanks,
Kyle
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