Inthe years since, Brown and Batygin (along with others) have filled in more pieces of the Planet Nine puzzle: The enigmatic entity is likely around seven times more massive than Earth, which would make it the fifth-largest planet in the solar system, and it's probably located somewhere between 500 and 600 astronomical units from the sun (between 500 and 600 times farther away than Earth is from our home star).
However, there is still some uncertainty about Planet Nine's eliptical orbit, which could take anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 years to complete and is likely slightly tilted compared with the orbits of the known planets, or where it is in its orbital cycle. As a result, all previous attempts to find the planet have fallen short.
In the new study, which was uploaded to the preprint database arXiv on Jan. 31, Brown, Batygin and Matthew Holman, an astrophysicist at Harvard University, used data collected by the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) observatory in Hawaii to search for Planet Nine along and around its suspected orbital pathway.
The trio analyzed 78% of the region where Planet Nine is likely to be; the rest of this space currently lies too far away for Pan-STARRS to see it clearly. Yet Planet Nine was nowhere to be seen. (These findings have not yet been peer-reviewed.)
This may sound straightforward, "but there are many things in the sky that change month after month," such as asteroids and comets, Brown said. "As a result, it's like playing a game of connecting the dots in a very computationally intensive way."
To ensure they didn't miss Planet Nine, the team added more than 50,000 fake Planet Nines to the data. They "spotted" 99.9% of these decoy planets, meaning the chances of the team having missed Planet Nine in the search region are "really small," Brown said. As a result, the team thinks Planet Nine is somewhere in the most distant 22% of its proposed orbital pathway.
Brown and Batygin are currently working on the "next level" of the survey by using data from the Subaru Telescope, also in Hawaii. This data should also be able to help them sort through most of the space that they have been unable to reach, as well as increase their certainty that Planet Nine isn't in the space already surveyed.
Harry is a U.K.-based senior staff writer at Live Science. He studied marine biology at the University of Exeter before training to become a journalist. He covers a wide range of topics including space exploration, planetary science, space weather, climate change, animal behavior, evolution and paleontology. His feature on the upcoming solar maximum was shortlisted in the \"top scoop\" category at the National Council for the Training of Journalists (NCTJ) Awards for Excellence in 2023. "}), " -0-10/js/authorBio.js"); } else console.error('%c FTE ','background: #9306F9; color: #ffffff','no lazy slice hydration function available'); Harry BakerSocial Links NavigationSenior Staff WriterHarry is a U.K.-based senior staff writer at Live Science. He studied marine biology at the University of Exeter before training to become a journalist. He covers a wide range of topics including space exploration, planetary science, space weather, climate change, animal behavior, evolution and paleontology. His feature on the upcoming solar maximum was shortlisted in the "top scoop" category at the National Council for the Training of Journalists (NCTJ) Awards for Excellence in 2023.
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Dan Vergano is a senior Opinion Editor at Scientific American since 2023. He was previously a science reporter and editor at Grid News, BuzzFeed News,National Geographic, and USA Today (where he was the science reporter for 14 years). He wrote a weekly science column, \\"Science Snapshots\\" for USA Today for seven years, and has written freelance reports for the Washington Post, Men's Health, Science, New Scientist, Science News, Air &Space Smithsonian, and others.
Starting in the 1990's, Vergano has become best known for pioneering new approaches to investigative science journalism, in reporting ranging from State Department cover-ups of \\"Havana Syndrome\\" findings to the peer reviews of the \\"Arsenic-Life\\" fiasco to the botched HHS investigation of the CDC's failed coronavirus vaccine. He was a leading national reporter in coverage of climate change in the 2000's, of the overdose crisis in the 2010's, and coronavirus vaccines in the pandemic. He broke the news that space shuttles had suffered excessive heating due to foam strikes before the Columbia disaster in 2003, and published a feature report on the suspected Anthrax killer in 2004, a year before the FBI identified the suspect.
Dan is the chair of the New Horizons committee for the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing, and a journalism award judge for both the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the U.S. National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine. He taught journalism as an adjunct professor for New York University from 2012 to 2014, and was a 2007-08 Nieman Fellow at Harvard, where he studied the intersection of politics and science. He has won the 2011 Gene S. Stuart Award by the Society for American Archeology, 2006 David Perlman Award for Deadline Science journalism by the American Geophysical Union and was a Finalist for 2001 Missouri Lifestyle Journalism award.
Vergano has a B.S. in Aerospace Engineering from Penn State and an M.A. in Science, Technology and Public Policy from George Washington University. He worked as a space policy analyst for a federal-funded research and development center prior to starting his reporting career.
Nibiru has been linked to NASA by various bloggers. Because of this claimed connection, space agency officials put out a statement saying that no big planet was coming to destroy Earth in 2012. What follows below is the true science and history of this supposed rogue planet, with reference to a real object, Comet Elenin, that somehow got mixed up in the whole mess.
The story began in 1976, when Zecharia Sitchin wrote "The Twelfth Planet," a book which used Stitchin's own unique translation of Sumerian cuneiform to identify a planet, Nibiru, orbiting the sun every 3,600 years. Several years later, Nancy Lieder, a self-described psychic, announced that the aliens she claimed to channel had warned her this planet would collide with Earth in 2003. After a collision-free year, the date was moved back to 2012, where it was linked to the close of the Mayan long-count period.
When Comet Elenin appeared in 2011, many were concerned that it was the mysterious planet in disguise, despite the fact that planets and comets appear very different under a telescope. (A comet has a gas atmosphere, called a coma, and a tail, while a planet does not.)
But instead of slamming into the Earth, the comet strayed too close to the sun and broke into pieces. The leftover fragments will continue on their path to the outer solar system for the next 12,000 years, still bits of comet and not a more cohesive planet.
Proponents of the fictitious planet note that, in 1984, a scientific paper was published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters which discussed several infrared sources with "no counterparts" that turned up in a survey of the sky. Such surveys are common in astronomy and usually involve follow-ups that individually detail the more interesting sources. In the follow-up of the 1984 survey, most of the sources turned out to be distant galaxies. None were identified as planets. Both papers are available to the public.
A planet with an orbit so eccentric that it took 3,600 years to orbit the sun would create instabilities inside our 4.5-billion-year-old solar system. After only a few trips, its gravity would have significantly disrupted the other planets, whose own gravitational pushes would have changed the hypothetical world's orbit significantly.
The easiest and most verifiable piece of evidence arguing against the existence of the theoretical planet can be performed by anyone: According to the information available, a planet with a 3,600-year-long orbit that was due to impact Earth in 2012 should be available to the naked eye. Easily performed calculations show that, by April 2012, it would have been brighter than the faintest stars viewed from a city, and almost as bright as Mars at its dimmest. This would have made it visible to astronomers everywhere.
The most common rebuttal to this is the cry of "Cover up!" However, there are hundreds of thousands of amateur astronomers around the world, many of whom own their own telescopes. On top of that, most of the thousands of professional astronomers are linked not to the government but rather to private universities.
All of the above notwithstanding, there may actually be a big, undiscovered world lurking in the dark, cold depths of the outer solar system. The evidence for this hypothetical "Planet Nine" has been building over the past few years, as astronomers such as Mike Brown, Konstantin Batygin, Scott Sheppard and Chad Trujillo have noticed weird clustering in the orbits of small objects beyond Neptune. The best explanation, these researchers say, is an unseen "perturber" very far from the sun.
Calculations suggest that this Planet Nine may be about 10 times more massive than Earth and orbit perhaps 600 times farther from the sun, on average, than our planet does. Astronomers around the world are scouring the sky with powerful telescopes as we speak, trying to spot Planet Nine directly.
Finally, a note about the name: Brown and Batygin dubbed the putative world "Planet Nine" because, if discovered, it would "replace" Pluto as the solar system's ninth planet. (The International Astronomical Union reclassified Pluto as a dwarf planet in 2006, you probably recall.) But some researchers (and many laypeople) still regard Pluto as the ninth planet and therefore use the term "Planet X" (or "Planet Next," or "Giant Planet Five") for the undiscovered object instead.
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