Thanks for the note Sander. These are all good questions. Ultimately those about accuracy will simply have to be tested – they are research questions.
Both for QMC and for many-body quantum chemical techniques, I think it is healthiest to think about how hard we have to work to obtain a specific property to a given accuracy. The real-world prefactors and size-scaling of every method differs for each system and property.
There are papers on up to about the water hexamer as well as bulk water in the literature that presumably you have looked at. They focus on QMC energies.
On the functionality related topics, backflow is fully available up to the last release version. For “real” ab initio calculations, the data on the utility of backflow is quite limited. Potentially importantly, it is also not a route to complete convergence/removal of nodal error. It is also somewhat costly, limiting interest and applicability. For this reason backflow is already not fully available in the development version – there just isn’t yet reason to prioritize it over other features that get more use, and we have a lot of development work improving the code for GPUs. Backflow will likely come back once popular features are improved since understanding where it is worthwhile would be useful.
We are currently exploring orbital optimization, as are many in the broader QMC community. We are not claiming full production capability yet, but all the pieces should be there and simple optimizations work.
Orbital optimizations provides a route to the best set of single particle orbitals for a given form of trial wavefunction (single det, or pfaffian etc.). There are not many papers that go into the costs of using this technique vs number of coefficients vs atomic number (etc.); this still needs to be explored more broadly. Particularly for systems like water clusters where we do not expect multideterminants to be strictly necessary, optimizing the orbitals should be an excellent route to high accuracy at reasonable cost. But I don’t think anyone knows where the limits are yet – new data is needed.
Multideterminants are certainly a convenient route for improving the wavefunction. One possibility is to use large multideterminant wavefunctions to calibrate the error of simpler wavefunctions, e.g. to pick the best nodal surface from available DFT functionals or to check the single determinant+orbital optimization results. Whether this is a viable route for you would depend on how accurate you need the results to be and how much computer budget you have.
Ultimately answering these questions will come down to someone trying out these techniques for their systems and properties of interest…
I hope this helps.
-- Paul