[PyPSA-Eur] - Insightful comparison with TYNDP 2020

[hugo]

Hi,

I recently made a quick comparison of PyPSA-Eur with TYNDP 2020 grid data which features more precise electrical line characteristics. I am sharing here some open reflexions with PyPSA community, so feel free to share your analysis.

It appears that load shedding observed in original publication (https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01613, Fig. 6) could be explained by local line reinforcement. As for France with nuclear production which comes with line thermal rating reinforcement along production - consommation axes. For other countries like Germany, Danemark, and Belgium, significant divergences in line thermal ratings between PyPSA-Eur and TYNDP also appear for 380-400kV lines (cf figure, blue line corresponds to PyPSA-Eur values). But load shedding is not observed. An hypothesis for this effect could be the decommissioning of nuclear installations leading to a system that does not use its already existing reinforced lines at their maximal potential. However for italy and denmark, there are similar distribution divergences left without any explanations. Values for Greece and Hungary are very high and could be an error or a national specificity. I don't know if some of you have more insights on these matters.

Kind regards,

Hugo

[Tom Brown]

Thanks Hugo,

That's very interesting to see the comparison of the thermal ratings!

Do you know if the TYNDP are winter or summer ratings?

I suspect the 10000 MW values are just the equivalent of "unknown rating".

It's encouraging that the large countries (DE, FR, NL, IT) have ratings
as high or higher (on average) than our standard ratings.

Re: load shedding: Are you sure you can exclude the fact that the load
is assigned at the wrong places as we suspected in that paper? I'd be
surprised of the lower thermal ratings in PyPSA-Eur were constraining
nuclear.

Best wishes,

Tom

> IST_europe_TYNDP.PNG
> Kind regards,
>
> Hugo
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Professor of Digital Transformation in Energy Systems
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[hugo]

Hi Tom,

Line thermal ratings of TYNDP grid model are winter values. The average TYNDP values are indeed coherent with standard values used in PyPSA-Eur (220kV: 500 MVA / 400kV: 1700 MVA). However, a more precise description could lead to more realistic behaviour.

I am not sure that load assignment error is not the source of load shedding. Line ratings in France can be mapped with RTE's data (French TSO). This data source demonstrates that line between nuclear capacities and dense consommation regions (e.g. Paris) are reinforced. The 400kV lines feature higher thermal limits (on average 3500 MVA, two times more than PyPSA-Eur standard values). This hypothesis could be confirmed by performing a load flow over a corrected PyPSA-Eur model including more realistic thermal limits for france (using RTE's data association with PyPSA-Eur by geographical match).

Kind regards,

Hugo

[Tom Brown]

Hi Hugo,

Thanks for the clarification!

3500 MVA sounds way too high for a single circuit, I think they must be
representing a double circuit line with one aggregated element.

2000 MVA is about the limit I think for high temperature conductors for
a single 380 kV circuit (please someone correct me if I'm wrong).

Best wishes,

Tom

> <https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01613>, Fig. 6) could be explained by local

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>
>
> --
> Tom Brown (he/him)
> Professor of Digital Transformation in Energy Systems
> Institute of Energy Technology
> Technische Universität Berlin
>
> Group website: https://www.ensys.tu-berlin.de/
> <https://www.ensys.tu-berlin.de/>

> Personal website: https://nworbmot.org/ <https://nworbmot.org/>

>
> Visitor Address:
> Einsteinufer 25 (TA 8)
> 10587 Berlin
>

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[hugo]

Hi Tom,

Thank you for this precision, I did not have in mind these values and the potential bias of modelisation. I am not a specialist of transmission line thermal rating, but maybe reinforcing the structures and restringing the line with a larger conductor allow to operate beyond classical limits of single circuit lines. And the TYNDP model being quite exhaustive regarding line description, it would be unusual to locally include simplifications of single circuit lines representing a larger number of lines. However, it is difficult to find more information regarding this subject.

Which are the factors initially leading to the hypothesis that local assignment errors were the source of load shedding ?

Best regards,

Hugo