Time Series Forecasting
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Marvin Valentin
Dec 26, 2022, 7:34:58 PM12/26/22
to pvlib-python
Good day:
I would like to seek your advice which software should I use best for time series forecasting of renewable energy production using meteorological data.
Thanks,
Marvin
Will Hobbs
Dec 27, 2022, 2:17:02 PM12/27/22
to pvlib-python
For solar, I suggest you check out solarforecastarbiter-core reference forecasts (https://solarforecastarbiter-core.readthedocs.io/en/latest/reference-forecasts.html). The pvlib.forecast module has been deprecated (https://pvlib-python.readthedocs.io/en/stable/reference/forecasting.html), but you may be able to get it working in an "unsupported" way using: https://github.com/kahemker/pvlib-python/tree/thredds-v5-support-pvlib0.9.
The solarforecastarbiter-core process is a little mode complicated, but more robust than the pvlib.forecast module was.
For non-commercial use, this tool likes look it could be helpful for grabbing weather forecasts: https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/gfs-api.
For wind, I don't have a great suggestion. Getting reference/baseline forecasts added to solarforecastarbiter-core is a goal for that project. I think modifying https://github.com/SolarArbiter/solarforecastarbiter-core/blob/master/solarforecastarbiter/io/fetch/nwp.py to grab wind speed at higher elevations (e.g., HRRR has 80m wind speed, GFS has 80 and 100m wind speed and temperature) would be a decent start to a custom wind forecasting tool.
Will
Marvin Valentin
Dec 27, 2022, 2:59:38 PM12/27/22
to Will Hobbs, pvlib-python
Thanks for your reply. So, pvlib does not have built in functions for forecasting?
Thanks,
marvin
MARVIN T. VALENTIN
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Marvin Valentin
Dec 27, 2022, 3:19:28 PM12/27/22
to Will Hobbs, pvlib-python
Thank you for your recommendation. I started to explore the Solar Forecast Arbiter. I wish there are examples starting from the raw daw until forecasting ot energy.
Thanks,
marvin
MARVIN T. VALENTIN
Will Hobbs
Dec 27, 2022, 4:43:46 PM12/27/22
to pvlib-python
There are some examples here: https://github.com/SolarArbiter/workshop.
Note that any steps that require an account on solarforecastarbiter.org will not work right now. The project is migrating over to forecastarbiter.epri.com, and I don't think accounts can be setup just yet.
Will
Marvin Valentin
Jan 17, 2023, 2:23:14 AM1/17/23
to pvlib-python
Hi Will, I am trying to access the example you sent me but I can not find a very specific example for forecasting AC power from PV system. Can you help me identify such example? Thank you.
marvin
Will Hobbs
Jan 17, 2023, 8:21:18 AM1/17/23
to pvlib-python
Hi Marvin,
The interactive Binder workspace in step 7 of the readme should have a few examples of AC power forecasts. It makes use of NWP files that should come with the package (as opposed to having to setup and run the NWP fetching and processing workflow yourself just to get a working example).
Will
Marvin Valentin
Jan 18, 2023, 1:08:50 AM1/18/23
to Will Hobbs, pvlib-python
Hi Will
Thank you for your reply. I was able to go through it. I hope it is okay to ask question. Do you have idea what is meant by the T0000Z in the init_time?
Thanks,
marvin
MARVIN T. VALENTIN
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