Time to post some of your ideas for project 1

[Patrick McKnight]

You should all know your team assignment and have exchanged at least one email with the others.  Before we meet tomorrow, I want to prompt everyone to start thinking about some ideas for the first project.  So, what were you thinking about for the problem?  What data do you think you can either get or estimate?  How will you calculate the probability?  Will you consider a conditional or unconditional probability?  Please post here so others can start thinking about their projects.

Here are some thoughts for my group (we haven't met or discussed anything):

GMU admissions has changed over the years.  What is the probability that a student with average high school grades and average SAT/ACT scores would be admitted 15, 10, and 5 years ago compared to today?  These are staged conditional questions where we are just building the case for changes in the probability of admission.  Where can we get the data?  Of course, from the registrar.  If we cannot contact them and get them to respond, we can use US News data or some other estimate.  

If we don't want to hassle with hard-to-find data, let's look at death - that is an interesting topic.  What is the probability that a GMU student (of average age) would have an untreatable cancer?  Assume that GMU students are randomly sampled from the population so you can use the US Census statistics.

OK, how about other teams?

[Andrew Stets]

My group discussed investigating the probability of being diagnosed with cancer a second time. The probability of being diagnosed with cancer after having been diagnosed with HPV. That data would come from the CDC, or another website with access to that already because the CDC wants a few days after registering an account to release that data apparently. 

The other idea, that I think we have agrees on is determining the probability that Michael makes it back from Italy safely. This data comes from a few different places. 

All of our ideas are in some manner related to death, so we must be on the right track. 

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[Kristin Carpenter]

Hi,

Haven't gotten to meet with my group yet, but some ideas for all of us:

I saw a problem in Jaynes' Probability Theory that blew my mind a little bit on positive test rates in medicine. So I was thinking to build off that, perhaps the probability that you have TB given that you had a positive test for TB. To investigate this we would have to use CDC rates of TB in the population, rates of positive and false negative results, etc. It is sure to be a lot less than one would assume based on the test rates!

Another is a more traditional probability problem. If you have three marksman aiming at the same target and firing at the same time, and marksman A historically hits his targets 30% of the time, marksman B historically hits his targets 80% of the time, and marksman C historically hits his targets 65% of the time, then what is the probability the target will be hit by at least one of them? By all of them? By none of them?

Kristin

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