I was going to say "no way", but sure enough, the 32-bit release build is 18,154k, so 64-bit could easily be double that. However, when you actually link a binary with the library, the size is much smaller. protoc.exe, for example, is 1MB, and it includes both libprotobuf.lib and libprotoc.lib, the latter of which is 10MB.
I don't know much about MSVC, but perhaps it is including some sort of debug info in this library? Cygwin produces a 14MB libprotobuf.a, but after stripping it is down to 968k.
Note that I consider 1MB to be too big for many users, which is why the next version will have a "lite" mode that sheds all the descriptors and reflection features and should be very small.