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Hi. Thanks for sharing part of your day with us. My name is Clay Irwin, and I am responsible for your sales and trading business at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management Solutions. Today I'm joined by Abby Yoder, our US equity strategist, and Tom Kennedy, our chief investment strategist. And over the next 30 minutes, we aim to cover our mid-year outlook.

And we want to talk about the key components there within, some of the economic backdrop and our outlook, as well as investment opportunities within your portfolios. And I hope by the end of the call it is clear to you why it is that we titled it a Strong Economy in a Fragile World. And maybe we'll pick it up right there.

Tom, no shortage of negative headlines in the world around us today. Yet despite it all, when you dig through the economy of the United States and the rest of the world has remained resilient. Help walk us through that resiliency and what's taking place in the world around us.

I feel like the narrative on the street, Clay, is using this word resilient. Because you just can't believe that despite the Federal Reserve as an example, hiking rates 500 basis points, that the economy can still do so well. We're going with strong economy instead, because it is so surprising how well we have weathered that interest rate hiking cycle. Some stats, first, despite the hikes, the US economy has outperformed economists expectations for two years in a row. What does that mean?

GDP growth coming in here, and expectations were something below that. Unemployment rate in the US at 4% or below for about 2 and 1/2 years. Last time you saw something like that, Clay, late 1960s. So there is something unique and very different about this going on.

So look, we'll talk about the differences between expectations and reality in a minute because I think that's an important point. Before we do, just a quick second on mortgages. Right? Because it's interesting when you think about this sustainably high interest rate environment, yet we have a strong economy behind it. I would think that by now some of the higher rates would have weighed on the real economy. And I've got family in Florida who just in time moved from the North to the South and they were able to get a reasonable mortgage rate.

But now, I mean, the rest of the world, they must be somewhat stuck in these positions. Yeah, the housing market is clear evidence that the Fed has put interest rates to a restrictive place. The average American has an existing mortgage right now, 30-year fixed, Clay, 3 and 1/2%. But want to walk into one of our great branches, you're going to see a mortgage rate around 7% or even higher. But the bigger zoom-out on the growth picture for America is really being driven by three things. And housing is a piece of it.

First is that consumption is high because the labor market is tight. Most Americans are going to feel their income growth north of 5% on average. That's higher than where we were pre-COVID. Second is on housing. Now you hit the point. Rates are restrictive and it is causing an affordability problem. But the average American has about 70% equity in their home. What am I saying? The value of the home is, say, a million bucks. 70% of that is equity. That if and when rates come down, they can monetize by selling or adding leverage.

The last piece, powering growth, is what's happening in the corporate space. Profit margins have widened in the last 12 to 18 months, and CEO confidence is high. That should support investing in businesses despite high interest rates, and a hiring and keeping that labor market quite robust.

So I want to go back on the rates conversation in a second because a lot of what you described of consumer confidence, of disposable income, of having that sense of wealth feels inflationary to me. So I want to talk about that. But before we do, let's talk about confidence.

We just wrapped first quarter earnings and you got a snapshot into the state of public equities. CEO confidence remains high. I want to hear your thoughts on that. But before we do, you shared with me the results of a survey that you saw just recently over the last couple of days talking about an individual's confidence in the economy around them, and how that might be inconsistent one's view of themself versus the broader world. Give me the details on that.

Yeah, so that was a Fed survey. And what it was doing, it was asking individuals, it gave them four choices to choose from. And it was saying, how do you feel about your own financial position? And 72% of respondents said, I feel good or I feel exceptional, basically. And then they asked alternatively, well, how do you feel about the economy?

And only 22% of those respondents said that they felt good about the economy. And that divergence, that huge divergence, has always existed. There's always been a gap, but it is doubled since 2019. And I think to your point around this whole conversation around mortgages and what's happening with the consumer, from a fundamental standpoint, they're in a very strong spot. But from a sentiment standpoint, when you have prices, inflation increasing over the past couple of years, the way that they did, there's a hit to confidence to a certain extent.

Well, I wanted to see if I could drive you to the to the earnings conversation. And so you spoke about this divergence perhaps between an individual's perception. What are the CEOs telling you? Well, what the CEOs are telling you is that that confidence that you're getting from consumers that you're seeing that 72% feeling secure is coming through, through spending. Right? So we just, as you mentioned, are finishing up 1Q earnings, and it was a really good quarter, probably the best in two years, let's call it. And that was driven by really solid revenue growth, which as Tom mentioned, was driven by this better than expected economic growth.

We also saw profit margins expand for the first time in seven quarters, and that led to a really healthy bottom line. And the Mag Seven technology related companies drove 50% of that growth rate that we saw in 1Q. But importantly, we did see strength broadening out. We saw all 11 sectors beat earnings expectations this quarter. That's important because that means what we're seeing is more companies and more sectors are exiting this rolling earnings recession that we had been talking about over the past, let's call it 18 months. And, you know, and this all fed through. We saw the lowest number of mentions of recessions through transcripts since Q4 of 2021.

Interesting. The other part that you hit that I think is really important is this concept of expectations and reality. So you're talking about it at the micro level, the corporate level. Tom was talking about at the macro level and the economic level. And the thing that's interesting that sometimes we forget is it's not good enough just to have good numbers. You need numbers that are better than what the expectations were, and that's what causes markets to continue to grind higher.

You had mentioned Mag Seven or Magnificent Seven, or those big companies that are driving a lot of the returns. I want to come back to that on a second. But before we do, Tom, let's transition back to the rates conversation. So we heard from Chair Powell yesterday talking about what he thinks the economic backdrop looks like, helping guide expectations towards the direction of rates. What is it that you learn from the call?

I think two things really jumped out to me. First is a mantra we have in our midyear outlook, higher for longer, but not forever. Powell and the team at the Fed updated their projections for interest rates going forward. They're still expecting the next move to be a cut just like us, but it's going to happen later. They're now calling for the median FOMC participant thinks you'll cut one time this year, four times next year, very similar to what we're expecting to happen.

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