Looking for consulting firms in the area of conflict early warning (qualitative and quantitative) and conflict prevention in Africa
Vorwerk-Halve, Sonja GIZ
Dear all,
I hope this email-group is still working. I would like to post a question to all experts in conflict early warning and hope that you will be able to assist me.
Do you know consulting firms which are qualified to work in the area of conflict early warning (qualitative and quantitative) and conflict prevention in Africa?
I appreciate your response before September.
With kind regards,
Sonja Vorwerk-Halve
Abteilung Sicherheit, Wiederaufbau und Frieden / Division Security, Reconstruction and Peace
Kompetenz Center Nothilfe, Wiederaufbau und Frieden / Competence Center Relief, Reconstruction and Peace
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Godesberger Allee 119
53175 Bonn
Deutschland
S giz_vorwerk-halve (skype)
Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH;
Sitz der Gesellschaft Bonn und Eschborn/Registered offices Bonn and Eschborn, Germany;
Registergericht/Registered at Amtsgericht Bonn, Germany; Eintragungs-Nr./Registration no. HRB 18384 und/and Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Eintragungs-Nr./Registration no. HRB 12394;
USt-IdNr./VAT ID no. DE 113891176;
Vorsitzender des Aufsichtsrats/Chairman of the Supervisory Board: Hans-Juergen Beerfeltz, Staatssekretaer/State Secretary;
Vorstand/Management Board: Tanja Goenner (Vorstandssprecherin/Chair of the Management Board), Dr. Christoph Beier (Stellv. Vorstandssprecher/Vice-Chair of the Management Board), Tom Paetz, Dr. Hans-Joachim Preuss, Cornelia Richter
Helene
Personally, I am, mostly on the qualitative side, as I have, for example, worked with The CEEAC/MARAC, as well as acting of the expert for the French evaluation of French intervention in fragile states,
I am not following what others are doing thus I cannot vouch for anyone else, sorry,
All the best
Dr Helene Lavoix
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MSc PhD Lond
Independent Researcher
Phone: + 33 1 47 48 13 58 - Cell Phone: + 33 673 21 29 84
Email: helene...@orange.fr - helene...@gmail.com
Web site: http://independent.academia.edu/HeleneLavoix
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Anton Ivanov
Dr Anton Ivanov
Director
FEWER Eurasia Foundation
32a Leninsky Prospect, 1616
Moscow 119991
phone: +7 495 938 00 10
mob. + 7 916 691 34 27
an...@fewer-eurasia.ru
www.fewer-international.org
skype: fewereurasia
hoffm...@hotmail.com
John Packer
Dear Sonja, Anton et al.,
I am most grateful to Anton for his concise, eloquent and compelling response.
Sonja, I appreciate your query, but I'll be a bit more straight forward than Anton.
It is quite clear that there is no problem of EW. That's just a tired excuse for many previous failures to act: "if only we knew..." It's dishonest. In most if not all cases, the evidence was there in abundance, often noted retrospectively (with feigned surprise, e.g. "Oh how interesting that Egypt has such a huge unemployment rate amongst single men and such an unequal distribution of wealth and opportunity..."). Indeed, if anything there is so much information/warning that it may be that prospective actors are overwhelmed by available data.
The obvious problem is the failure of ACTION! That no one seemed to digest the indicators for the end of the Cold War, the Arab Spring, etc. is clearly a problem about who is watching, what/how they're analysing and whether decision-makers are attentive. The classic case is the 'preventable genocide' of Rwanda for which Kofi Anan apologises and which President Clinton calls his greatest regret... not that they didn't know, but that they didn't ACT when all the evidence was there IF they'd have been paying due attention and simply responded in due time (which they could have easily done). Repeatedly lamenting such failures is tiring... as is the nonsensical search for technological fixes etc. There is no magic, but neither is there a great mystery: by and large we know quite well what causes both violent conflicts and atrocities (which tend to coincide).
Is it still at all credible to argue "we don't really know" and "if only we did, THEN we'd act"?
The real question is why there remains so little action when so much is so obvious, based on loads of experience yielding both qualitative and quantitive data for piles of data-analysis.
Btw, the financial argument for early CP is overwhelming but STILL hardly moves to action. Why?!
If GIZ (and more broadly the GoGermany) is serious about conflict prevention in Africa, then it must simply invest with determination - both politically and materially - in better governance, both structurally (i.e. systems and institutions) and in the 'soft' but crucial elements of relevant human resources. There's no other way. And the earlier the better both in terms of chances for success and relative costs (both human and material). Targetted development assistance (technical and material) linked to (even conditioned upon) better governance would substantially increase effectiveness and contribute to a virtuous circle.
Best wishes,
John
On Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:11:56 +0400, Anton Ivanov
<an...@fewer-eurasia.ru> wrote:
Dear Sonja,Hope you are well!I am not mentioning INCAS since I am a partner there and you know our work.Just wanted to share a collective observation, so to speak - in the field of early warning today there's a lot of "technology" and sophisticated academism, but in practical terms it, as a rule, turns out to be of little use. I've recently attended consultations hosted by EPLO on EU early warning system and it was an interesting benchmarking exercise. It seemed that EW/ER made a circle there. Bottomline (that may be useful for making the right choice of experts) - what really works is always simple, talent-centred, and not reliant on one school of thought only. A pragmatic combination of approaches, focus on credibility and personal trust by decison makers who respond + responsibility of those delivering the analysis. In other words - commonsensical organisational solutions for the information flow, analysis and feedback. That's where it all started:)Another important thing is keeping the congnitive biases problem under control. It is increasingly tangible - due to some sort of rigid political correctness patterns spreading - "responders" end up getting the recommendations and supporting analysis tailored to dominant expectations of correctness in their bureaucracy - that's what we see in most systems today. Ironically, it's part of a good decison-makers's job description not to have most cognitive biases. So they find it really fun, I suspect, to read most EW reports. As to parsing (syntactic analysis) and structural data - good analysis has virtually nothing to do with the amount of evidence data, but exclusively with its quality. This quality is delivered by experienced human sources who use intuitive filtering and recognition (part of intellect's functions that are poorly understood and cannot be programmed) - so this field has a long way to go yet before it can add analytical/predictive value.Kind regards,
A.
Dr Anton Ivanov
Director
FEWER Eurasia Foundation
32a Leninsky Prospect, 1616
Moscow 119991
phone: +7 495 938 00 10
mob. + 7 916 691 34 27
an...@fewer-eurasia.ru
www.fewer-international.org
skype: fewereurasia
14.08.2012, в 11:09, "Vorwerk-Halve, Sonja GIZ" <sonja.vor...@giz.de> написал(а):
Dear all,
Vorwerk-Halve, Sonja GIZ
Dear Roger,
I would be happy, if you could send me the link of this recommended consultancy firm, so that I can have a look at the profile.
With kind regards,
Sonja
Alexander Austin
I guess that you sent the below email in error. You might want to re try Roger.
Best,
Alex
Alexander Austin
Senior Analyst & Consultant
alex....@conflict-transformation.org
Conflict Transformation | Peacebuilding | Anti-Corruption
& Organized Crime
Austin Consult,
Kurfürstenstraße 15 – 16,
D-10785 Berlin,
Germany
Tel. +49 (0)30 8939 6310
Skype austin.consult
www.conflict-transformation.org
Vorwerk-Halve, Sonja GIZ
Dear Helene Lavoix,
thank you for your response.
With kind regards,
Sonja
Evan Hoffman
Hi Sonja:
As per Ben’s below message, you can read about our conflict prevention work in Guinea-Bissau here http://www.ciian.org/projects1.shtml#gb
There is also a short movie about the project posted online here http://www.ciian.org/peaceguerilla.mpg
A model for undertaking conflict prevention in other fragile states based on the lessons learned from this project is available online here http://www.ciian.org/assets/Preventing%20Political%20Violence.pdf
Lastly, I have recently co-authored a new report about this project and when that is released by Purdue University (which should be soon) I’ll send you a copy.
Regards,
Evan
Evan Hoffman, PhD
Executive Director
The Canadian International Institute of Applied Negotiation (CIIAN)
ehof...@ciian.org | www.ciian.org
Associate Faculty
School of Peace and Conflict Management
Royal Roads University
evan.h...@royalroads.ca | peace-conflict.school.royalroads.ca
Helene
You are most welcome :).
I am sorry I was a bit brief in my answer, compared with others... of course, if you want more information I would be delighted to give it to you.
I should have mentioned also that you most probably know Angelika Spelten who created a few years ago a great system of indicators for the BMZ. Although the people who updated the indicators were a centre of research you may find it interesting, if you are not already in touch with them, to do so.
At the time I made a confidential study for the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, detailing (from a cooperation/development point of view) the German, US, UK and then Regional African Systems. It was in 2007 if I remember well, and although the study on specific systems is most probably outdated, the fundamentals of what is an early warning system, why it should be separated from response and how (mainly to respect democracy) are still correct. As a special version to share with OECD partners had been created. I would be glad to share it with you if it were of interest. Unfortunately the unit who commissioned the work in the French Minsitry has disappeared, thus I cannot put you in touch with them.
I can see from the emails that you received that since I have stopped following in detail the debates of consultants in the area, not much has changed...
On the non-confidential part, you may find articles that may interest you on my academia.edu webpage http://independent.academia.edu/HeleneLavoix and other more specific posts on http://www.redanalysis.org/.
I hope that you will find what you are looking for,
Warmest Regards,
Helene
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Dr Helene Lavoix
Independent Researcher
Strategic Foresight & Warning (conventional & unconventional security)
Phone: + 33 1 47 48 13 58 - Cell Phone: + 33 673 21 29 84
Email: helene...@orange.fr - helene...@gmail.com
Web site:
http://independent.academia.edu/HeleneLavoix
Twitter: @HLavoix
4, rue Paul Vaillant Couturier
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"Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong—these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history." Winston Churchill - House of Commons, May 2, 1935
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