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[Margorie Gomoran]

Thatwas partly because central banks slashed interest rates to bolster confidence and recovery. UK rates, 5% in early 2001, were cut to 4pc by November, and ultimately to 3.5pc. The US Federal Reserve cut rates all the way to 1pc.

There are obvious fears for city centre traders - though in the wake of 9/11, predictions of a collapse in retail sales proved baseless. This time UK consumers are more cash- strapped, but an early cut would offer some relief.

There is some talk of an emergency meeting of the Bank's monetary policy committee, but that may suggest panic. Merrill Lynch economist Ian Stewart reckons the MPC's regular August 4 meeting is the right time.

There is less scope for deep cuts this time, but Merrill expects UK rates to fall to 4.25% by December and 3.75% a year later. That should help housing and consumer spending. But it also has its dangers.

That raises the danger of a slump if there is any sudden blow to confidence. The hedge fund jitters after Ford and General Motors bonds were downgraded are a warning. Interest rates also affect currencies.

All this is an example of how markets help us absorb shocks. This is the great advantage of the capitalist system, which has helped it withstand 9/11 and hugely costly natural disasters like the 1995 Kobe earthquake, which cost $200bn and 6,000 lives.

But I would not be a bear of oil just yet. Asian demand is still racing away, and global growth has slowed only slightly. Prices are holding up at around $60. With supply tight as a drum, any interruption could send them even higher.

Since 1999 new finds, led by Egypt and Trinidad, have run far ahead of depletions. As a 'clean' fuel, gas is in huge global demand. Shell and Centrica are chasing gas in Russia. Chinese-and Indian energy companiesare seeking acquisitions in the West.

In oil equivalent terms, broker UBS expects its annual production to soar from 324m barrels a day in the five years to 2003 to 513,000 this year and 600,000 in 2007. Though the pace is slowing, this is stunning growth at a time of energy scarcity. These days, there are no safe investments.

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