MNI Forecast Competition - impressive first results
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Emile Servan-Schreiber
Apr 12, 2011, 12:55:23 PM4/12/11
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Hi all,
Last week Market News International, a division of Deutsche Boerse, launched a public competition to forecast ten of the major U.S. economic indicators on a monthly basis. It uses Lumenogic's new Competitive Forecasting engine to aggregate the wisdom of a crowd composed mostly of MNI customers. This morning the first results came in with the official release of the U.S. Trade Deficit in February. The outcome was -45.8 billion dollars, just 0.1 billion off the final MNI crowd's consensus forecast (registered 22 hours ahead of the official release) at -45.7 billion. The accuracy of the MNI crowd's forecast in this instance is especially remarkable in comparison to the consensus predictions of analysts and economists surveyed by Reuters (-44.5 billion), Bloomberg (-44.0 billion) and FXStreet (-43.1 billion). That's a very cool data point for all of us in the "wisdom of crowds" business. More official releases are scheduled until the end of the month, starting tomorrow with Retail Sales (March), so it will be interesting to monitor closely how well the MNI crowd does against the various high-profile "analyst surveys".
FYI, here's MNI's own press release on this matter:
http://www.automatedtrader.net/real-time-news/74344/mni-forecast-contest-us-trade-def-off-by-just-100-mln
--
Last week Market News International, a division of Deutsche Boerse, launched a public competition to forecast ten of the major U.S. economic indicators on a monthly basis. It uses Lumenogic's new Competitive Forecasting engine to aggregate the wisdom of a crowd composed mostly of MNI customers. This morning the first results came in with the official release of the U.S. Trade Deficit in February. The outcome was -45.8 billion dollars, just 0.1 billion off the final MNI crowd's consensus forecast (registered 22 hours ahead of the official release) at -45.7 billion. The accuracy of the MNI crowd's forecast in this instance is especially remarkable in comparison to the consensus predictions of analysts and economists surveyed by Reuters (-44.5 billion), Bloomberg (-44.0 billion) and FXStreet (-43.1 billion). That's a very cool data point for all of us in the "wisdom of crowds" business. More official releases are scheduled until the end of the month, starting tomorrow with Retail Sales (March), so it will be interesting to monitor closely how well the MNI crowd does against the various high-profile "analyst surveys".
FYI, here's MNI's own press release on this matter:
http://www.automatedtrader.net/real-time-news/74344/mni-forecast-contest-us-trade-def-off-by-just-100-mln
--
Emile Servan-Schreiber, PhD
Managing Director
Lumenogic, LLC
http://www.lumenogic.com
Tel US: +1.203.702.6224
Tel EU: +33.6.1804.3404
Managing Director
Lumenogic, LLC
http://www.lumenogic.com
Tel US: +1.203.702.6224
Tel EU: +33.6.1804.3404
David Pennock
Apr 15, 2011, 10:44:25 PM4/15/11
to prediction-market...@googlegroups.com
This is fantastic Emile. Congrats. After all these years, even though I
should no longer be surprised, results like this still amaze me.
should no longer be surprised, results like this still amaze me.
On 4/12/11 12:55 PM, Emile Servan-Schreiber wrote:
> Hi all,
>
> Last week Market News International
> <https://marketnews.deutsche-boerse.com/>, a division of Deutsche
> Boerse, launched a public competition <http://mni.lumenogic.com/> to
> Tel US: +1.203.702.6224 <tel:%2B1.203.702.6224>
> Tel EU: +33.6.1804.3404 <tel:%2B33.6.1804.3404>
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
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