Last week Market News International
, a division of
Deutsche Boerse, launched a public competition
to forecast ten of the major U.S.
economic indicators on a monthly basis. It uses Lumenogic's new Competitive
Forecasting engine to aggregate the wisdom
of a crowd composed mostly of MNI customers. This morning the first results came in with the official release of the U.S.
Trade Deficit in February. The outcome was -45.8 billion dollars, just 0.1
billion off the final MNI crowd's consensus forecast (registered 22
hours ahead of the official release) at -45.7 billion. The accuracy of the MNI crowd's forecast in this instance is especially remarkable in
comparison to the consensus predictions of analysts and economists
surveyed by Reuters (-44.5 billion), Bloomberg (-44.0 billion) and
FXStreet (-43.1 billion). That's a very cool data point for all of us in the "wisdom of crowds" business. More official releases are scheduled until the end of the month, starting tomorrow with Retail Sales (March), so it will be interesting to monitor closely how well the MNI crowd does against the various high-profile "analyst surveys".
FYI, here's MNI's own press release on this matter:http://www.automatedtrader.net/real-time-news/74344/mni-forecast-contest-us-trade-def-off-by-just-100-mln