Just For Kicks (2003 Full Movie)

[Silvana Fleischacker]

WhenDiego Maradona died, Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta had an idea. Ignacio is my friend; he\u2019s also an economics professor and penalty expert, author of the seminal 2003 academic paper on penalties, Professionals Play Minimax.

In it, he examines whether players make random choices with their penalty-kicks. His finding was that most players make choices that do not depend on their own previous penalty, or the goalkeeper\u2019s previous penalty decision, or on past outcomes. And whenever there is a discrepancy among a player\u2019s penalty choices, he can spot it.

Ignacio decided to look back at Maradona\u2019s penalty strategy and see if he followed the Nash equilibrium of game theory (made famous in the movie A Beautiful Mind): this states that a player can achieve the desired outcome by not changing their initial strategy based on how they think their opponent might act. Game theorists love penalties as they are a zero-sum game (someone has to win and someone has to lose).

There were a few reasons he wanted to do this research. Firstly, no-one has put these two geniuses together before (that\u2019s Nash and Maradona, not Ignacio and Maradona). Scientists love testing out a theory, so why not do it with one of the greatest players ever? And from an educational point of view, we both agree that using Diego Maradona to help teach game theory can be effective.

The purpose of Ignacio\u2019s investigation was to answer two questions: 1, were Maradona\u2019s chances of scoring a penalty statistically identical whether he kicked to his natural or non-natural side? And 2, were his choices serially independent, or did they depend on what happened in his previous penalties?

Maradona scored 90 penalties in all, at a conversion rate of 82.5% per cent. Towards the end of his career, he missed five penalty kicks in a row for Boca during Argentina\u2019s 1996 Torneo Clausura, which were among the last seven penalties he kicked. Before that point, his conversion rate was up to 86 per cent. \u201CThose five curses signalled the end of my football career,\u201D he wrote in his autobiography, Yo soy el Diego de la Gente.[The story of these five penalties is worthy of a separate piece, which includes some tremendous trash-talking from River Plate goalkeeper German Burgos; as is Maradona\u2019s role in the 1990 World Cup semi-final penalty shoot-out win over Italy, which is explored in Asif Kapadia\u2019s brilliant film, Diego Maradona.]

Maradona takes his penalties left-footed: he kicks 55 per cent to his natural side (with 85 per cent conversion rate) and 45 per cent to his non-natural side (with 86 per cent conversion). [He only kicks four to the centre of the goal, and because of the angle of his run-up, for the purposes of this study kicks down the middle are counted as natural side.] He rarely kicks his penalties with power, preferring to roll the ball into the net. Here\u2019s a video of some glorious Maradona penalties:

Ignacio then pulls out his party trick: examining the sequence of actions that Maradona chooses, in the order in which they occurred. He measures each aspect of Maradona\u2019s penalty choices: his probability of kicking natural or non-natural, the goalkeeper\u2019s probability of diving to that side, the scoring probabilities and the runs, defined by a succession of identical choices followed and preceded by a different choice. Ignacio goes so deep into this that here is a sample equation in the paper where L=Maradona\u2019s strategy. Enjoy!

\u201CThe results of the tests are remarkably consistent with equilibrium play in every respect: 1, Maradona\u2019s scoring probabilities are statistically identical across strategies. And 2, he generates serially independent sequences and ignores any possible strategic links between past occurrences. As the ultimate test of Nash\u2019s theory, the empirical evidence shows that Maradona\u2019s behaviour is consistent with Nash\u2019s predictions.\u201D

\u201CI used to wait for the goalkeeper. As I\u2019m seeing the goalkeeper, I can\u2019t hit it too hard, as I\u2019m already on top of the ball. The run-up with my foot, it isn\u2019t enough to hit the ball hard. If it goes slowly, it\u2019s knowing if the goalkeeper will move to his right or left. So I extend the leg and watch the goalkeeper. You risk not getting the ball there though, but I usually managed pretty well.\u201D

I wonder how his penalties can be totally randomised in line with Nash equilibrium if he\u2019s only reacting to goalkeepers making the first move? Ignacio makes the reasonable point that we should not always believe everything that Maradona says \u2013 after all, he has the data, and about 33 per cent of Maradona\u2019s penalties actually go in the same direction as the goalkeeper\u2019s dive. Ignacio says:

\u201CWell, he is not exactly reacting, despite what he says. He is a good randomizer, and as such, once he randomizes, he will not change the direction he kicks the ball. He himself admits this when he says that \u2018you risk not getting the ball there\u2019. Does he want us to believe that, as the best player on earth, when he aims to kick the ball to the right, it sometimes goes to the left?

\u201CThe data clearly show that Maradona\u2019s penalties are taken using the proverbial \u2018invisible foot\u2019. That is, he keeps goalkeepers indifferent to their diving sides [ie no goalkeeper facing Maradona has a diving preference], and the goalkeepers keep Maradona indifferent to his kicking side [he doesn\u2019t have a preferential side; his scoring rate is statistically the same on both sides]. Also, as goalkeepers facing Maradona as a group behave randomly, so \u2018reacting\u2019 to a random sequence also generates a random sequence.\u201D

So there you have it. Put one of the world\u2019s greatest ever players alongside the world\u2019s greatest penalty professor and the result: proof that Maradona plays Minimax. His penalty choices are perfectly randomised. And the clue was there for us all along: the letters from the word \u2018random\u2019 can be found in \u2018Maradona\u2019.

Sergio Aguero apologised after his Panenka penalty was saved in Manchester City\u2019s defeat to Chelsea. Did he really need to? Fans were extremely riled up by his miss, accusing him of showboating and, in some newspaper reports, of trying to humiliate the opposition goalkeeper. No way! The kicker is just trying to score, nothing else, and has made a decision that gives the best chance for that (Panenka himself is horrified at the thought of disrespecting the goalkeeper). In Aguero\u2019s case, it didn\u2019t work. But it was nothing to do with showboating or trying to humiliate anyone. No need to apologise, Sergio!

Poor old Roberto Baggio. His penalty miss in the 1994 World Cup final against Brazil still haunts him. In a rare interview last week (only his fourth since retiring 17 years ago), he said: \u201CI still have not forgiven myself. Religion could help me in that moment. I could have killed myself that day and yet I wouldn\u2019t feel anything.\u201D Missing that penalty (and let\u2019s not forget that Franco Baresi and Daniele Massaro had also missed for Italy) actually fitted his career narrative. As Italian novelist Vanno Santini told me: \u201CBaggio\u2019s miss embodied Italy\u2019s struggle to combine beauty and victory. He came out of it purified.\u201D

Big drama in La Liga where Real Madrid was awarded a penalty only to see VAR step in and Sevilla get a penalty for a foul earlier in the move. It\u2019s the first time this has happened in La Liga, and it would be in one of the most important of the season. Ivan Rakitic made no mistake from the spot\u2026

This might cheer up Sergio and Roberto: a penalty from Romania\u2019s second division match between Cluj and Reccea. The score was goalless when Reccea took this penalty. Cluj won the game 3-2. Thanks Emy for sharing this!

If you enjoyed this post, please spread the word about Twelve Yards and share this with your network. Recent pieces include: how Neymar honed his technique after FIFA changed the rules, explaining Real Madrid\u2019s penalty drought, how Diego Alves became the penalty scourge of La Liga, Pep Guardiola\u2019s surprisingly impressive record in penalty shoot-outs, which players will be next to score penalties with both feet, the Chilean defender who hates penalties but keeps scoring, the Argentine penalty tradition sweeping across empty stadia in Europe, why Lionel Messi is average at penalties, how Robert Lewandowski became a penalty killer, who really invented the two-touch penalty (and Robert Pires relives his trauma), why it\u2019s better to aim high than low, the great Ederson penalty debate, an interview with Antonin Panenka, how to define a true Panenka, how to end Antoine Griezmann\u2019s run of five missed penalties in a row, penalty records in empty stadia, and Barcelona\u2019s first shoot-out win in 23 years. Thank you!

The Wild & Scenic Film Festival was started by the watershed advocacy group, the South Yuba River Citizens League (SYRCL), in 2003. Read more here: The film festival has evolved into the largest environmental film festival in the nation. The annual event each January in Nevada City, CA kicks off the nationwide tour to over 140 cities. We think the films are just too good, and the messages too powerful to keep them to ourselves. Come watch and see for yourself! Learn more about the Wild & Scenic Film Festival!

TRIVIA QUESTIONS...CU-Chris Brown broke the school record for most points in a gamewhen he scored 36 in the 62-36 win over Nebraska. Who held the oldrecord? Godfather-What character received a lot more play in thebook but was a minor storyline in the movies? (Hint: he had afairly visible role in I, never showed up in II, and a brief cameoin III).

CU-NEBRASKA ABC'SBEST... The Nov. 23 telecast of the CU-Nebraska game on ABC wasthe network's highest rated game to date in 2001, as it drew a 7.0rating and 26 share overnight and a 6.4 national rating (one ratingpoint equals something like 990,000 homes). We have had a lot ofrequests on if the game is available on tape; unfortunately, wewere informed that if we provide that service, we are violatingseveral copyright laws. We can hope that it will show up on ESPNClassic soon (though they may not show a blowout as that would be adisservice to the other team-think, would we like it?). A betterhope is that KMGH can replay the game in its entirety, much like itdid back in June when the Avalanche won the StanleyCup.

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