Re: Brayton Point Fossil Fuel Dinosaur
Richard Kerver
http://www.clf.org/blog/clean-energy-climate-change/dark-days-ahead-the-financial-future-of-brayton-point/
A proverbial Sword of Damocles
I applaud all the many, many people who put in place electricity restructuring that made possible economic forces favorable to increased renewable energy in our portfolio of generation plants. For the uninitiated, Brayton Point is New England's largest coal plant, one of the "dirty 5" that has long been targeted for eventual closure. In the face of that future, Dominion poured a billion dollars into upgrades to clean it up. Unfortunately for its shareholders, no one predicted the consequences of Fracking.
Yes, fracking, which has lowered the cost of natural gas and is the single greatest economic factor leading to economic failure of coal fired generation everywhere. So, we've mostly just switched from coal to fracked gas, hence the reference to Damocles sword. Natural gas has long been the fuel of choice for smoothing the spikes of electricity demand and will continue for the foreseeable future. But just like the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster, our continued reach for fossil fuels has lead to evermore risk with extreme drilling technologies, and the environmental disasters they bring.
I do not agree altogether with the economic analysis of the CLF report. In particular, that natural gas prices will remain low. The gas well profile for shale gas has proven its unreliability. These wells fall off a cliff rather rapidly. Hence, fracked gas, with lowered energy prices, first escalate the economic failure of coal. Then rate payers will pay the price once natural gas pricing return to their long-term historical ever rising trends, on the downside of fracked gas well failure.
We have once again proven that there is a trade-off between economic and environmental costs. The fracking industry is under enormous pressure to clean up its act, especially with regards to leaked methane. Leaked methane, we mostly all agree, is worse than CO2 emissions with respect to greenhouse gases. That's a trade-off we all want to see, meaning you'll pay more when you turn on your lights.
The answer remains our RPS and increased supply for those sources, especially off-shore wind. I hope for the closure of not just Brayton Point, but the other dirty four, and the eventual economic failure of fracked gas supplies as well. But prepare yourself now. Our real energy future is in highly distributed renewables - the solar PV on your roof or small wind turbine in your backyard. With energy storage. That or brace yourself for the eventual brown outs a continued reliance on the grid will bring.
What are you doing to make ready your clean & sustainable energy future? Best.
From conservation law foundation--
DARK DAYS AHEAD: THE FINANCIAL FUTURE OF BRAYTON POINT
Just how much financial trouble is Dominion facing at its 50-year old coal and oil-fired power plant? The prospects are bleak. Conservation Law Foundation recently released an independent analysis of the plant's financials, a report showing that the future of Brayton Point looks grim. Natural gas prices have declined significantly since 2008 and are expected to remain low for at least the remainder of this decade. As a result, the coal-fired power plant's earnings have dropped from $345 million in 2009 to an anemic $24 million in 2012, a decrease of some 93 percent. The numbers show that Brayton Point is facing dark days, and the clouds are not likely to lift.
Find out more and access the report here