Summer numbers

[Political Waves]

Do you remember last summer and the advent of the Baggers?  Bile and bilge and 'populist anger' that tipped us over into the Dark Side of political and social discourse. All year this has been with us, the sheer ignorance and hysteria of the Glenn Beck stuff, the 'mean-girl' sophistry and back-biting of the Sarah Palin stuff. We've become 'used to' people saying hateful things, cable news discussing dumbed-down talking points for hours on end, politicians and pundits giving us their 'truth' while assuming we have none of our own.

Given an entire year of this ugliness -- which contributes to our low energy and stress, our despondency and emotional lethargy -- we probably shouldn't be shocked when topics like "terrorist babies" come up or listen to the vicious howl over the proposed mosque at Ground Zero but I, at least, am still shockable -- I can't wrap my mind around the notion that emotional dysfunction supersedes intelligent discussion at the end of this first decade in the 21st century. I refuse to believe that we, as a nation, are this stupid.

Once again, summer is winding down so where are we going with all this, especially in an election year? Speculation's running wild. But clearly, all this Bagger business has split out ... state by state ... the extreme radicals from the neo-radicalism of today's brand of Republicanism. The Pubs are losing primary elections to Baggers which is, generally speaking, good news for Democrats -- voters will have a very clear choice between extremist and centrist. Bad news is, some will vote against the status quo no matter what and that means we'll probably have a surge of newly elected wingnuts in Congress. I don't expect the Red to have a sweep, even as they thump their chests and posture like the hucksters they are -- but, given the "what's the matter with Kansas" theory that compells folks to vote against their own best interests ... ya never know. Still, there are some encouraging trends out there to report.

The Pub meme of moment, which invariably requires them to invent a crisis in order to distort and deflect ...  like Palin's "death panels" meme of last summer ... is that the deficit is the only thing that matters to the economy and cutting to the bone is required; EXCEPT, of course, for the corporate welfare giveaway to the rich known as Bush's tax cuts which simply MUST remain intact. Jon Stewart explains that so much better than I can, here:

Stewart Exposes GOP Hypocrisy: Extending Bush Tax Cuts Won't Lower Deficit
(VIDEO)

There appears to be good news in the numbers. Last summer we were much more confused, it seems. Perhaps we have internalized the in-yer-face lessons of 2009 and the first months of 2010, despite the distracting race, culture and class war theme's of the Republican leadership.

According to MoveOn:

An overwhelming 73% of voters, including 67% of Republicans and 71% of independents, are more likely to support a candidate for Congress who works to reduce the influence of corporate lobbyists in Washington. And almost two out of three voters (60%) disagree with the Supreme Court's decision in the Citizens United case.

Perhaps we can all finally agree that the interests of big business, represented by the politics of the Right, need to be curbed. But given that, I cannot get a sense of why the Pubs continue to think they have a winning ticket by running to turning back Wall Street and Health Care Reforms, punish Hispanics, and gut Social Security and Medicare. Perhaps that's why we're seeing distractions like 'anchor children' and mosque-mania. What else have they got? What is being offered by Republicans is bleak -- their "serious" point man, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, has introduced a bill to partially privatize SS which has only received 13 co-sponsors so far.

 

Some 100 House Pubs support age change to 70 ... this is supposedly due to living longer, but until subsidized health care takes a BIG leap [and having faced this last health challenge without anything but generic antibiotics, I can't say this strongly enough] older citizens can't just extend their working life as if they don't have aging issues or flagging energy to keep a job, should they be fortunate enough to find one. 70? Really? Bullshit.

So how are we trending with all this, what do the numbers seem to be telling us? Here are some excellent reads, including polling numbers you will find encouraging. Social Security is poised on its 75th birthday and, as I pointed out in the weekly, it is solvent, as is Medicare. Reports of its demise are waaaaaay too hasty ... unless we allow ourselves to be stampeded again.

 

This period in history isn't so much about intelligence ... cause we don't appear to be showing much ... but rather, AWARENESS. The harder things get, the more people seem to be awakening. If there's a plus side to mayhem, that's it.

A note to those who are concerned about my recovery, I'm slowly regaining both breath and strength and I thank you for your good thoughts.

Jude



GOP still a regional party
kos, Daily Kos
Aug 12, 2010
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/12/892496/-GOP-still-a-regional-party

Nothing has changed. The GOP is still a Southern regional white people party. From the latest NBC/WSJ poll:

The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn't lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it's 44%-43%.

And there's this:

Consider: 60% believe the current Congress is either below average or among the worst, an all-time high in the survey; the percentage viewing the GOP favorably (24%-46% fav/unfav) is at an all-time low; the numbers for the Democratic Party aren't much better (33%-44%, and the "very negative" for the Dems matches an all-time high); nearly six in 10 say the country is headed in the wrong direction; and 64% think the U.S. economy hasn't yet hit rock bottom ("Recovery Summer," anyone?).

Everyone hates everyone in DC, but they still hate Republicans the most. Of course, this doesn't mean we're out of the woods in November. There are plenty of congressional districts in the midwest and west that look more like Alabama than Minneapolis.

But for conservatives expecting the sweeping tidal wave, their own personal unpopularity still could get in the way.

And beyond this November, that unpopularity will team up with their demographic challenges (losing the brown and young votes) to create serious long-term challenges. Republicans don't currently have a viable path toward majority status, and doubling down on their teabagger-fueled nuttery isn't going to turn those things around.

It may be enough to make some decent gains in November, but again, it's a long-term loser. ++


GOPers Line Up To Repeal Wall Street Reform
Lucia Graves, HuffPo
08-13-10
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/13/gopers-line-up-to-repeal_n_680733.html

Social Security Keeps 20 Million Americans Out Of Poverty, Report Finds
Laura Bassett, HuffPo
08-13-10
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/13/social-security-keeps-20_n_681595.html

Attacking Social Security
PAUL KRUGMAN, NYT
August 15, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/opinion/16krugman.html

Public Opposes Cutting Social Security To Trim Deficit: New Poll
Ryan Grim, HuffPo
08-11-10
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/11/public-opposes-cutting-so_n_678374.html

Social Security turns 75 this week and remains an intensely popular program with voters of all ages, who strongly oppose cutting it to reduce the deficit, according to a new survey paid for by AARP and conducted by GfK Roper.

The poll, which was provided exclusively to HuffPost, finds that 85 percent of adults oppose cutting Social Security to reduce the deficit; 72 percent "strongly oppose" doing so.

Numbers like that simply don't appear in surveys of almost any other national issue that is subject to debate.

In fact, the AARP survey turns conventional wisdom about taxes on its head: half of all non-retired adults said that they would be willing to pay higher payroll taxes to ensure that Social Security will be there for them; 57 percent of adults under 50 would be willing to pay such a tax.

A bipartisan commission set up by President Obama is currently examining Social Security in the context of deficit reduction, with a vote on the panel's recommendations scheduled for the lame duck session of Congress, fueling fears of a midnight raid on the program's trust fund.

The strong support for the program isn't ideological but personal and visceral. Cutting Social Security would bring real pain, survey respondents said. Just shy of two-thirds say that their family would be hit hard if Social Security were cut. Eighty percent of Americans say that Social Security alleviates the financial burden of taking care of parents. Prior to the enactment of Social Security, the elderly consistently drained the savings of their children in their waning days or were shipped off to homes known as "poor houses" -- a phrase that survives today as a cliché disconnected from its original use.

The survey found that support for the program is intense even among those who said they aren't confident that it will survive -- a reasonable conclusion, given the hysteria and deception involved in the debate.

Story continues belowThe anti-Social Security propaganda is having an effect, the poll found: Only 21 percent of respondents knew that if the trust fund is exhausted, the program will still be able to pay out benefits at a slightly reduced level.

GfK Roper surveyed 1,200 adults aged 18 or older. A total of 781 respondents were not retired and 419 were retired.

The survey can be found here.
 

A Season of Fear
The GOP's shortsighted immigration play
Howard Fineman, Newsweek
8/15/10
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/15/fineman-immigration-ethics-and-islam.html

If we had any sense, the fall elections would be about just one thing: theeconomy. But we do not have any sense. We are facing what Wall Street wouldcall the "triple witching hour." Republicans have their finger on threesocial-demographic hot buttons. The first is illegal immigration (in proposing a review of the 14th Amendment), and the second is Islam in America (in objecting to the mosque at ground zero). They won't be able to avoid pushing the third, race, even if they wanted to, given that the twol eading congressional Democrats facing ethics charges are African-American.

The Democrats, in response, label the GOP xenophobic and intolerant-andthose are the nice words. If Barack Obama's inauguration - could it have beenonly 19 months ago? - was a moment of proud, blessed calm, we are now looking at a nasty, community-shredding season of fear.

If we had any sense, the fall elections would be about just one thing: the economy. But we do not have any sense. We are facing what Wall Street would call the “triple witching hour.” Republicans have their finger on three social-demographic hot buttons. The first is illegal immigration (in proposing a review of the 14th Amendment), and the second is Islam in America (in objecting to the mosque at ground zero). They won’t be able to avoid pushing the third, race, even if they wanted to, given that the two leading congressional Democrats facing ethics charges are African-American. The Democrats, in response, label the GOP xenophobic and intolerant — and those are the nice words. If Barack Obama’s inauguration — could it have been only 19 months ago? — was a moment of proud, blessed calm, we are now looking at a nasty, community-shredding season of fear.

Given where Republicans — and come November, maybe the country — are headed, I wanted to interview a well-known Republican of color. Rep. John Boehner was out of town, so I called former representative J. C. Watts of Oklahoma. He’d risen from rural poverty to the starring role on the Sooners football team and served in Congress from 1995 to 2003. He supported Sen. John McCain, but he was a proud witness at Obama’s swearing in. Unlike me, he had no illusions about what it meant. “I’d lived too much history, and had seen too much discrimination, to see that day as a new world,” he says. Events have validated his skepticism. “We have a political and media culture, based in Washington, in which no one wants to study things—peel the onion—before they speak. Instead, they just play to the base to get them worked up. That’s what’s happening on all these issues.”

The foremost example is immigration. No longer content merely to advocate for the arrest and deportation of “illegals” (see: Arizona), conservative cooks in the constitutional meth lab have concocted a much stronger intoxicant: rewriting the 14th Amendment to get rid of “birthright” citizenship (never mind that enacting the 14th Amendment during Reconstruction is something the GOP brags about on its Web site). The plan feeds straight into the cortex of Tea Party constituents: amending the amendment would end a supposed wave of “anchor babies” born to mothers who fly to the U.S. like malevolent storks to inject aliens into our bloodstream.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wants to have hearings. He regards himself as a cautious constitutionalist, but he can’t resist a red-hot hot button when he sees one, especially if it might help protect the Senate candidate in his home state of Kentucky, Tea Partier Rand Paul. Republicans focus on Chinese anchor-baby cases, but the larger message isn’t lost on tens of millions of Hispanic voters. So whatever gains this issue helps the GOP make today — and they might not be insignificant — could cost the party tomorrow, Watts says. “I was just with some Republican Hispanic leaders — in many ways, the future of our party — and they told me they were heartbroken. They think we’re taking the legs right out from under them.”

Fears of “the other” — not to mention media concentration in New York City — provide staying power to the GOP’s focus on the Islamic community center planned for a site near ground zero. Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich continue to push the issue; most Democrats continue to avoid it. And while Republicans are careful to avoid any hint of racial language about the ethics cases, the GOP machinery churns out compendiums of coverage of Reps. Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters, whose congressional trials, inconveniently for the Democrats, are scheduled for this fall. Rush Limbaugh taunts Rangel by noting that the president has wished aloud that the congressman would retire. Limbaugh also said that “Maxine Waters is just Charlie Rangel in a skirt,” meaning…well, who knows, but it wasn’t supposed to be nice.

Will all of this work for the Republicans? In spite of the sound and fury — or, perhaps, because of it — maybe not. With the economy sliding into a potential double-dip recession, the GOP would be better off focusing on the administration’s economic track record, or lack thereof. Republicans also risk backing themselves into a demographic corner. They can’t afford to be the party of white people who fear everyone else (nor can the Democrats be the party who calls everyone who disagrees with it racist). “We’ve all got to take our time and think clearly before we speak on these matters,” says Watts. Now that would make sense. ++

 

 

"I'm asking you to believe. Not just in my ability to bring about real change in Washington ... I'm asking you to believe in yours."
~ Barack Obama

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