Advisory for Sunday, May 31, 2026
Washington, DC ― A delegation from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) is traveling to Colombia to observe this Sunday’s presidential elections. While there are 14 candidates on the ballot, the race has effectively narrowed down to 3 contenders: left-wing senator Iván Cepeda of the governing Pacto Histórico party, hard-right lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella of the Movimiento de Salvación Nacional party, and right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia of former president Álvaro Uribe’s Centro Democrático party. Current polls suggest that Cepeda, though in the lead, is unlikely to win outright with 50 percent of the vote or more; instead he is widely expected to advance to a second round on June 21, where he will face off against either de la Espriella or Valencia.
“This is one of the most consequential elections in the Americas this year, and while it is already a deeply polarized contest, there is a significant possibility that a runoff could become even more contentious,” CEPR Senior International Policy Associate Francesca Emanuele, who will observe Sunday’s election, said. “This underscores the importance of independent and impartial election observers who can document irregularities, help safeguard confidence in the electoral process against unfounded fraud claims, and call on political actors to respect democratic norms if tensions or threats of violence arise.”
CEPR will be tracking developments in the election in real time on its “US Escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America” live tracker. Ahead of Sunday’s vote, CEPR has published an issue brief examining economic and social developments in Colombia since current president Gustavo Petro took office in 2022.
As has been the case in the past, the current electoral cycle has been marked by political violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe and hundreds of acts of violence against political and social leaders, as well as the spread of misinformation regarding various candidates, in particular via social media platforms. There are concerns that incidents of violence, vote-buying and clientelism could impact the vote on Sunday.
In addition, there are fears regarding foreign interference in Sunday’s election. US politicians, including Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and Representative María Elvira Salazar of Florida (R-FL), have generated controversy with public statements that favor or oppose certain candidates (Salazar) or that seek to disqualify votes from regions where armed groups operate (Moreno). Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has also appeared to want to influence the vote through, for instance, unfounded allegations linking outgoing President Petro to drug-trafficking organizations and by raising tariffs against Colombia to 100 percent, before dropping them slightly after speaking with Paloma Valencia.
CEPR recently published a report on Honduras’s 2025 election that noted that US interference was likely a major factor that influenced voters in that country.
“We’re seeing foreign interference in Colombia’s elections coming from politicians in the US and other countries,” CEPR Director of International Policy Alex Main, who will be observing Sunday’s elections, said. “In light of the undeniable impact of US interference in recent elections in Honduras and Argentina, it is critical that the Organization of American States and other international organizations make clear that foreign interference of any sort in this election is an unacceptable violation of Colombian sovereignty.”
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