On December 10, US forces boarded and seized an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude off the coast of Venezuela due to alleged violations of US sanctions, marking a major escalation in economic warfare against the country amid broader threats of military action. The legality of the seizure is highly contested. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, countries may have a “right of visit” to board ships in international waters that are stateless, which the seized ship allegedly was. However, this does not confer the right to seize goods. Moreover, the US’s unilateral sanctions do not carry international force, and in fact, many legal experts contend that the unilateral sanctions are themselves illegal. Circumventing unilateral sanctions is not in and of itself a violation of international law, and contrary to Trump administration rhetoric, unilaterally sanctioned goods are not necessarily “black market.”
Regardless of the legality of the seizure, the move inaugurates a new phase in economic pressure against Venezuela. Alongside renewed threats of “land strikes,” the administration declared its intent to make such seizures routine and sanctioned six more ships alleged to be involved in shipping Russian oil. Fear of similar seizures has already led tankers bound for Venezuela to turn around, has left others stranded in Venezuelan ports, and has forced Venezuela to offer steep discounts on the limited remaining sales. Then, on December 16, President Donald Trump announced a “TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela,” until Venezuela “returns” to the United States “all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.” US forces boarded and seized a second tanker, the Panama-flagged Centuries, on Saturday the 20th and, as of the time of this writing, is “in active pursuit” of a third.
As CEPR Senior Research Fellow Francisco Rodríguez told The New York Times, “A continued policy of seizures would cause a steep decline in Venezuela’s import capacity, plunging the country into a new recession,” echoing the dynamic of the last decade, where sanctions significantly contributed to “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century.” Barclays economist Alejandro Arreaza told Bloomberg that Venezuela “is on its way to hyperinflation,” and “the impact of a larger oil discount only accelerates the process.” This not only would have a disastrous humanitarian impact on Venezuelan citizens but also could backfire on Trump, writes The Washington Post’s Max Boot: “Inducing another economic crisis in Venezuela is only going to make both problems — migrants and drugs — worse.”
