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Dear Susan,
Thanks for the thoughtful overview of the Fire-Horse year. One small historical nuance that might be worth adding is that in the Chinese tradition 丙午 was regarded (by some) as inauspicious, associated with disasters, unrest, and ominous signs affecting the realm, rather than being specifically gendered. The idea that women born in a Fire-Horse year would bring disaster to their husbands seems to be a distinctly Japanese development that crystallized in the Edo period.
The Yaoya Oshichi story certainly helped popularize this image, but the link between her and 丙午 appears to be a later cultural overlay rather than part of the original incident. In other words, Edo-period popular culture (jōruri, Saikaku, etc.) repurposed Chinese cosmological and hemerological ideas and combined them with local anxieties about women, fire, and the social order more broadly. Niels van Steenpal wrote a fascinating piece about this topic.
A recent book by the sociologist Yoshikawa Tōru argues that the dramatic drop in births in 1966 reflected shifts in birth timing and family-planning practices, driven largely by media attention and deliberate changes in reproductive behavior, rather than a simple resurgence of traditional or religious belief. Regarding 1906, Yoshikawa argues that there was no comparable decline in births, largely because demographic patterns were shaped by the disruptions of the Russo-Japanese War rather than by concern over the Fire-Horse year itself, though these points remain open to debate.
Best regards,
Ori
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Or Porath, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of East Asian Studies
Max Webb Building, Room 517
Tel Aviv University
P.O. Box 39040
Tel-Aviv, 69978, Israel
Vice-President, Society for the Study of Japanese Religions
Japan’s Forgotten God: Jūzenji in Medieval Texts and the Visual Arts
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Dr. Rotem Kowner
Historian, Professor of Japanese Studies
Department of Asian Studies
The University of Haifa
199 Abba Khoushy Ave., Mt. Carmel, POB 3338
Haifa 3103301, ISRAEL
Forthcoming publications
A Hardening Hierarchy: The Japanese in the Global Formation of Racial Ideologies, 1735–1854 (McGill-Queen's University Press, 2026)
Dear Rotem,
Thank you for this careful and stimulating contribution. I was intentionally cautious in presenting Yoshikawa’s arguments as open to debate rather than rejecting them outright. I agree that the demographic patterns you shared make it difficult to account for the declines in 1906 and 1966 without acknowledging some lingering influence of the Fire Horse year. You also strike a thoughtful balance between avoiding the reification of “belief” and allowing room for the real social effects of religion. I share your curiosity about how 2026 will unfold.
This discussion clearly also belongs within the field of religious studies.
Thanks again to Susan Tsumura for bringing this topic to our attention.
Best regards,
Ori
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In an unpublished 1964 review of Ivan Morris’ World of the Shining Prince (included in Madly Singing in the Mountains, p. 375), Arthur Waley mocked Morris’ effort to distinguish religion from superstition writing, “I would prefer simply to say that ‘superstition’ is any belief that the speaker thinks silly.” He had a way with words.
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> On Friday, 9 January 2026 at 16:51:34 UTC Michael Pye wrote:
>
>>
>> Dear honourable Colleagues,
>>
>> In the academic study of religions today there are few, if any, who
>> use either of the terms "superstition" or "cult" in their research or
>> analysis.
>>
>> The discussion of "superstition" more or less covered the question,
>> but the basic point is that to refer to something as superstition is
>> to adopt a position "within the field" which (jn the trade) we purport
>> to eschew. It has no value as an independent analytical category.
>>
>> Now comes "cult". This used to play a role in the sequence "church,
>> sect, cult" but now,it has been taken over in media- talk to imply a
>> badly secretive,group with outlandish teachihgs. I suggest therefore
>> that it is not such a good translation into English for 信仰 as in Inari
>> Shinko or Myoken shinko. or Kannon shinko (sorry no superscripts). Of
>> course, it can just mean "faith" (in anything) But in such contexts
>> what it means is more like "faith orientation“., implying both a
>> psychological and a social orientation. Cult is not really a helpful
>> transltion for it, at least not any more.
>>
>> galloping on, with best wishes all round
>> Michael Pye,
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> .................................................................................................................
>> Professor of the Study of Religions (em.), University of Marburg, Germany
Since the question of "cult" as a translation for 信仰 has arisen , this is what I adopted in my dissertation The Political Meaning of the Hachiman Cult in Ancient and Early Medieval Japan." At my doctoral defense in 1980, some questioned my use of the term, but I insisted that Hachiman was the object of religious devotion - hence his cult. With all due respect to Father Pye, this is still the best of translations for the term. The opening line in my "Hachiman" for the Brill Encyclopedia of Buddhism Is:"The kami Hachiman is one of the most popular Shinto deities in Japan today, with estimates that a third of the nation's shrines are dedicated to his cult"For those who like dictionary definitions, here is Merriam Webster:3: a system of religious beliefs and ritualsalso : its body of adherentsthe cult of Dionysusan ancient fertility cult
> On Friday, 9 January 2026 at 16:51:34 UTC Michael Pye wrote:
>
>>
>> Dear honourable Colleagues,
>>
>> In the academic study of religions today there are few, if any, who
>> use either of the terms "superstition" or "cult" in their research or
>> analysis.
>>
>> The discussion of "superstition" more or less covered the question,
>> but the basic point is that to refer to something as superstition is
>> to adopt a position "within the field" which (jn the trade) we purport
>> to eschew. It has no value as an independent analytical category.
>>
>> Now comes "cult". This used to play a role in the sequence "church,
>> sect, cult" but now,it has been taken over in media- talk to imply a
>> badly secretive,group with outlandish teachihgs. I suggest therefore
>> that it is not such a good translation into English for 信仰 as in Inari
>> Shinko or Myoken shinko. or Kannon shinko (sorry no superscripts). Of
>> course, it can just mean "faith" (in anything) But in such contexts
>> what it means is more like "faith orientation“., implying both a
>> psychological and a social orientation. Cult is not really a helpful
>> transltion for it, at least not any more.
>>
>> galloping on, with best wishes all round
>> Michael Pye,
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> .................................................................................................................
>> Professor of the Study of Religions (em.), University of Marburg, Germany
>>
>>
>
> --