Analyzing Famine in the 8th Century

[Ross Bender]

Shoku Nihongi records 135 instances of famine over the 8th century. I laboriously collected dates and instances of famine in specific provinces by hand from my translation. Then I began experimenting using Chatgpt. It produced a spreadsheet with all dates and provinces, then produced a chart of frequency by province, a timeline, and even a famine map by decade. These are appended below.

Other disasters noted in Shoku Nihongi are below. My next step will be to log these, and then have Chatgpt produce similar charts for all events. I have always wondered, and still do, how significant this data is, particularly because there seems to be no way to measure the severity of each event.

If others have experimented using AI analysis for similar problems, I'd be very interested to hear about these.

Ross Bender

Amazon.com: SHOKU NIHONGI 697-791: A Translation of Maki 1-40 eBook : Bender, Ross, Bender, Ross Lynn: Kindle Store

Drought - 69

Earthquake – 89

Epidemic – 68

Famine – 135

[Maribeth Graybill]

Thanks, Ross, for sharing this very interesting data. The number of earthquakes is not so surprising, perhaps, if manor tremors were also included; but the mentions of epidemic and famine came as a shock. 

I'm wondering if heavy taxes collected leading up to (and perhaps continuing after?) the consecration of the 東大寺大仏 in 752 may have impacted harvests.

Maribeth Graybill

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[Leonardo Wolfe]

Dear Dr. Graybill,

Hopefully Dr. Bender will provide a more detailed response, but, of possible interest, Dr. Bender has translated the below edict, which was issued a few months before the eye-opening ceremony of May 26th.

Tenpyō Shōhō 4.1.3 (January 23, 752)

From this day to the last day of the twelfth month the killing of living beings is prohibited throughout the realm. However, for people who live near the sea, and who cannot make a living without fishing, two dry quarts of unhulled rice shall be provided daily. Provisions shall be compassionately provided according to need to those who are unable to make a living, including widowers, widows, those who live alone, those suffering from poverty, the aged and the sick.

天平勝宝四年（七五二）正月辛巳【三】 ○辛巳。

禁断始従正月三日迄于十二月晦日、天下殺生。但縁海百姓。以漁為業。不得生存者。随其人数。日別給籾二升。又鰥寡孤独。貧窮老疾。不能自存者。量加賑恤。

Kind regards,

Leonardo Wolfe

[Bryan D. Lowe]

Dear All,

In response to Dr. Graybill’s question, I would certainly encourage more attention to environmental patterns as a more likely causal variable. Wayne Farris has written on this in some detail and mostly attributes famines at this time to drought, particularly caused by a global rise of hot and dry weather and possibly aided in the Japanese case by poor irrigation techniques. This does seem to be an issue of global history. As he notes (p. 285), "This hypothesis is not new to European medievalists. Palaeoclimatologists in Western Europe almost universally accept — through examination of pollen, glaciers, and other archaeological and written materials — that the continent entered a period of unusually hot and dry weather beginning about 750 or 800 C.E."

The citation is as follows:

Farris, William Wayne. "Famine, Climate, and Farming in Japan, 670 – 1100." In Heian Japan, Centers and Peripheries edited by Mikael S. Adolphson, Edward Kamens and Stacie Matsumoto, 275-304. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780824862817-014

 It’s an excellent article that looks at famines year by year and places them in a broader environmental and technological context.

Best,

Bryan

---------
Bryan D. Lowe
Associate Professor of Religion
Melancthon W. Jacobus University Preceptor
Princeton University

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[Ivan Rumánek]

Dear All,

   I wonder if this might have been a factor behind one of the important events, the moving of the Capital from Yamato to Yamashiro.

Sincerely,

Ivan Rumánek

pi 12. 12. 2025 o 20:16 'Bryan D. Lowe' via PMJS: Listserv <pm...@googlegroups.com> napísal(a):

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[Jordan Sand]

Colleagues,

I am intrigued to see this edict against killing living beings quoted in full. A number of works I have read cite it in explaining the Japanese avoidance of breeding mammals for human consumption (colloquially simplified to "Buddhism prohibited meat-eating"). I had not realized that Shōmu hoped to wean fisherfolk off fish with grants of rice. I wonder if this rice was ever actually delivered and what the recipients made of it all.

Jordan

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Jordan Sand
Professor of Japanese History and Culture

Georgetown University / Kokugakuin University

[Leonardo Wolfe]

Dear Prof. Sand,

Small correction.

Empress Kōken was in power at the time.

Kind regards,

Leonardo Wolfe

[Susan Tsumura]

About the edict,

I would not say that the puropose of the edict was to wean fisherfolk off fish with grants of rice. It was to let them survive for that year. The prohibition was only for one year, till the end of the 12th month, the year of the dedication, and after that they would have to go back to fishing as the grants applied to people who could not make a living without fishing.

Susan Tsumura

> 2025/12/14 10:51 JST に Jordan Sand <sa...@georgetown.edu> が次のように書きました:

[Shapinsky, Peter D]

Thanks for the interesting discussion.

Presumably these hyakushō paid at least some of their taxes in kind in fish and other maritime products. So, whether or not the commoners fished or not, the conscience of the nobility—subsisting without meat for a year—was clear that they had taken care of the people.

There are medieval Noh plays and didactic tales that relate the breaking of these interdictions by “sea people” fisher folk, requiring divine intervention to save them, which one might read as evidence of people choosing survival over piety.  In the medieval period, religious estate proprietors such as Tōji issued periodic interdictions against killing for the estates they administered, including the maritime estate of Yugeshima, which would have been to some extent enforced by estate officers. 

In the 8th c., did provincial temples or district offices or village branch temples enforce these interdictions at the local level?

Also, did the 8th c. court make similar grants of rice made to hunters, who were equally damned in the eyes of the Buddhist establishment for killing living things?

Thanks all!

Peter

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Peter Shapinsky

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University of Illinois, Springfield

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psh...@uis.edu

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[Leonardo Wolfe]

Dear all,

I agree with Dr. Tsumura's assesment, however, it may be worth mentioning that there was also an earlier three-year ban.

Tenpyō 17.9.15 (October 14, 745)

For three years the killing of birds and animals throughout the realm is completely prohibited.

天平十七年（七四五）九月己巳【十五】○己巳。

禁断三年之内天下殺一切宍。

Whilst the context, and purpose of length, of this isn't overtly clear to me, Emperor Shōmu was Tennō at the time. Notably, it contains no clear provisions for the consequences of such a ban.

Other prohibition orders do exist, such as the below, but usually of a shorter length.

Tenpyō Hōji 2.7.4  (August 12, 758)

The Emperor gave an edict: “Recently the condition of the Dowager Empress Kōmyō has not been good, and this has continued for over ten days. We consider that for extending life and healing disease, there is nothing better than carrying out benevolence and compassion. Therefore throughout all the provinces of the realm, from now until the thirtieth day of the twelfth month, killing is forbidden. Also the meat of wild boar and deer is forever forbidden to be served at Court.” [...]

天平宝字二年（七五八）七月甲戌【四】○甲戌。

勅。比来、皇太后寝膳不安。稍経旬曰。朕思。延年済疾。莫若仁慈。宜令天下諸国。始自今日。迄今年十二月卅日。禁断殺生。又以猪鹿之類。永不得進御。[...]

Kind regards,

Leonardo Wolfe

[Jordan Sand]

My thanks to Leonardo Wolfe and Susan Tsumura for correcting me and following up about the edict of 752 prohibiting killing of animals and offering rice as compensation to fisherfolk. I looked again at one of the sources I had seen mentioning it and found that the author had listed it together with a number of other edicts of the 8th century, some specifically prohibiting killing of oxen and horses and others more generally prohibiting the taking of life. The article did not mention the inclusion of fish in this prohibition. I can't help but be curious whether ordinary folk obeyed these prohibitions, but I suppose it is difficult to know.

Jordan

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[Ross Bender]

Orders prohibiting the killing of living beings were symbolic Buddhist gestures throughout the 8th century and had nothing to do with famine. Interestingly in some cases it was made clear that this did NOT apply to Shinto shrine lands. In 764 the office of Master of Falconry was abolished and replaced with the Master of Releasing Living Beings -  Hōyōshi 放鷹司. The first specific reference to 

Hōjō 放生 or “release of living creatures” is in Nihon Shoki 677 (Temmu 5.8.16) when the emperor Temmu commanded that hōjō be carried out in all the provinces, and, later in the year, specifically in the home provinces. The empress Jitō established hōjōchi (ikihanatsutokoro) in all provinces in 691. During the Nara period hōjō was ordered several times during the illness of retired empresses. On one occasion cormorants and wild boar were released all over the country; there were two general orders prohibiting killing in the Tenpyō years, and five during TPSH. The Emperor Shōmu's edict of Tenpyō Shōhō 3.10.23 (751) notes that by releasing living beings all will escape sickness and lives will be lengthened. In 764 a Hōjō Commissioner was appointed.

Eventually the  Hōjōe became associated especially with Hachiman shrines. There is a Noh play titled  Hōjōgawa.  放生川（ほうじょうがわ） | 公益社団法人 能楽協会

Tenpyō Hōji 8.10.11  [November 8, 764]

The Retired Empress gave an edict:

“In all the provinces of the realm, hawks, dogs and cormorants shall no longer be raised for hunting or fishing. The practice of presenting the meat of wild boar and fish from the provinces for the emperor’s table shall be completely halted. Also the duty of young men ages 18 to 21 to harvest fish, wild boar and garlic shall be stopped, and they shall instead gather other products. However this restriction does not apply to kami fief households.”

Tenpyō Hōji 8.10.2  [October 30, 764]

The court abolished the office of Master of Falconry[1] and replaced it with the Master of Releasing Living Beings.

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[1] Hōyōshi 放鷹司

Here is a list for those interested in checking:

Jinki 3.6.15 (July 18, 726)

Tenpyō 15.1.13 (February 11, 743)

Tenpyō Shōhō [January 23, 749]

Tenpyō Shōhō [January 6, 750]   

Tenpyō Shōhō 4.1.3 [January 23, 752] 

Tenpyō Hōji 3.6.22  [July 20, 759] 

Tenpyō Hōji 8.10.2  [October 30, 764]

Hōki 4.12.25 (February 10, 774)

Hōki 6.9.11 (October 9, 775)

Tenpyō Hōji 8.10.11  [November 8, 764] 

Ross Bender

Amazon.com : ross bender maki 1-40

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[Leonardo Wolfe]

Dear all,

I apologise for another reply in quick succession, and after this I want to give way to other contributions, however, regarding my previous reply, I wonder if the three-year period is connect to the below, recorded on November 30th, 758.

"Confucius said ‘If I have three years, I can accomplish something.’ If for Confucius with his great sagely virtue three years were necessary, how much more so for ordinary people. In ancient China it took three years to evaluate an official’s work, but nine years to promote him. [...] Every three years a regional inspector will be dispatched to investigate the governance and inquire into the peoples’ suffering. After the results of two rounds of inspection, the matter of promotion will be decided." 

As for why I believe that this may be relevant, two days after the 745 ban, an apology of sorts was issued.

"Recently We have been unwell, and this has continued for over ten days. We consider that it is because our governance has been at fault and many people have suffered under the law. Therefore We proclaim a great amnesty throughout the realm, and all those not pardoned under regular amnesties now all exonerated. We bestow compassionate relief on those over eighty years of age, widowers, widows, orphans, solitaries, and those suffering from illness and unable to care for themselves, according to their situation.”

Prior to this, quite a number of earthquakes had also occurred

Connecting the two, on August 10th, 770, it is recorded,

"[...] We have made it the law of the state to prohibit killing living things, and we have proclaimed amnesty for crimes. And yet epidemic disease ravages living things, and they are frightened by strange disturbances. [...]"

Kind regards,

Leonardo Wolfe

[Leonardo Wolfe]

Dear Dr. Bender,

To briefly rejoin to comment on the line, "Orders prohibiting the killing of living beings were symbolic Buddhist gestures throughout the 8th century and had nothing to do with famine."

Farming animals are naturally included in such prohibitions, and are specifically named—cattle and horses—by Emperor Tenmu; albeit in the 7th century. The date range of Tenmu's ban, below, also seems to focus on the farming months.

From Prof. Bentley's translation,

The court issued an edict to the various provinces, “Henceforth we forbid those employed in fishing and hunting from making cages, digging pits, or setting traps that launch projectiles. Furthermore, from the first day of the fourth month to the thirtieth day of the ninth month, we prohibit the use of pimisakiri and fishing weirs. We also prohibit eating the flesh of cattle, horses, dogs, monkeys, or chickens. We do not prohibit [the eating] of any other kind of flesh. Offenders will be punished.

Whilst a distinction between killing vs. eating can be argued, and whilst the bans in the 8th century appear to be indicative of Buddhist influence, and of a greater scale, the agricultural impact of such bans should perhaps be examined in more detail to determine if it was a factor. In relation to this, below is an edict which highlights that people continued to slaughter such animals, despite prohibitions.

Tenpyō 13.2.7 (February 26, 741)

Imperial edict: “Horses and cows are raised since they are more useful than people in transporting things. Thus previously it was made clear that butchering them is not allowed. Recently We have heard that this practice has not stopped in the provinces and districts, and the people continue to butcher these animals. Those guilty of this offense, regardless of whether they are able to pay a fine, shall first be given one hundred blows of the cane and then made to pay. We have further heard that in the provincial and district offices people with no public duties have gathered and hunted in people’s fields, thus damaging the agricultural production and inflicting great harm. From now on this is strictly forbidden, and those guilty of the offense will be subject to serious punishment.”

天平十三年（七四一) 二月戊午【壬子朔七】○二月戊午。

詔曰。馬牛代人。勤労養人。因茲。先有明制。不許屠殺。今聞。国郡未能禁止。百姓猶有屠殺。宜其有犯者。不問蔭贖。先決杖一百。然後科罪。又聞。国郡司等、非縁公事。聚人田猟。妨民産業。損害実多。自今以後。宜令禁断。更有犯者、必擬重科。

Kind regards,

Leonardo Wolfe