Market Thoughts ~

[Natalia]

It has been a good 2 days move....

I just want to share my chart thoughts... it may sound silly and you can complain... all you want, because my opinion are totally worthless without price action confirmation ~ and I can change my view by 10 am tomorrow :)

Looking at the hourly chart in the past month or so, one can make an argument that the market is setting up for higher prices. It made a cup and handle pattern, or an inverse head and shoulder, whichever you like to see :). We just broke above the resistant line today of 157.50, and finding some support above that line.

To calculate the objective of the move subtract the neckline/breakout point (157.50) and the lowest point of the cup/pattern (153.50). The cup depth is 4 point. Now add that to the breakout point to find objective price: 157.50 + 4 that would equal to 161.50.

As long as the breakout hold we'll be just fine.

Interestingly, last Thursday night (Friday Paper), said not to discount any follow through that happens on May. Some of May follow through produce great result...

Link: http://news.investors.com/investing-the-big-picture/041813-652485-stocks-retreat-sandp-500-slips-under-50-day-line.htm

FTD on May 30th, 2000 led to 24% gain in 33 sessions

FTD on May 25th, 2005 led to 13% gain over 63 sessions

Also I just got some info that May 1998/1999 was an awesome time, so is May 2009.

I remember saying in the meetup that we need to disregard the IBD signal on May till 3rd week of July ~ but this year I want to stay open mind... 3 years in the row Sell in May and Go Away has worked... guess what, market will do the opposite what we normally know/want.

Let me know what you think?

-- 
~ N a t a L i a ~

(484) 857-2378

www.meetup.com/PlanoIBD

[Natalia]

Market Update for Thursday 04_25_2013

Seems to me pretty strong market today! There are many breakouts (as of this morning). Remember how we close at the end of the day is more important than how we open.

The Nasdaq once again is trying to approach all time high. There has been lack of follow through in either direction on the index.

Look at the quick snapshot, this week we are up +2.8%

Week ended on 4/19 -2.7%

Week ended on 4/12 +2.8%

Week ended on 4/5 -1.9%

Increased volatility can mark tops and bottom of the market. The market does not move straight up then reversed and go straight down... there will be consolidation or choppy area in the middle of the trend change (that is designed to take money away from your pocket, wear you out, before the next trend starts)

Stocks that are breaking out now: CAB, ORLY, CRI, CAKE, RYL, GWRE, V

CAB: My favorite equal opposite pattern, squeezed the shorts :)

CAKE: At All Time High, It broke out several weeks earlier, and holding above that breakout level, make a small consolidation and is breaking out again.

RYL: Housing has been strong ~ It is a third stage base that is rather risky...

GWRE: gave heads up yesterday as it is breaking out above IPO high, which one can argue that the entire pattern is a big 'ol cup and handle :)

V: broke out a few weeks ago, then re-test the breakout areas, and bounce 50 day ~ This has been a "Steady Eddy" tye of stocks...

Remember this are not buy/sell recommendation, ALWAYS use stops on your position.. realize that we are trading in a difficult environment with not much follow through... be on the lookout for any reversal or breakout failure possibilities as well...

Have an awesome day ~